Flip Saunders' PGs by the numbers
I've been working on breaking down the stats produced by Flip's point guards over the years.
I'm still working on drawing conclusions and applying them to Arenas/Critt/Foye/James. In the meantime, the list of the point guards Flip spent the most time with and some observations after the jump.
Here are the players who have spent the most time at the point for Flip (by minutes*):
Chauncey Billups 12,127 over 5 seasons (including the 2 year/4,000 minute stint in Minny)
Terrell Brandon 7,082 over 4 seasons (2 as the primary starter)
Stephon Marbury 6,097 over 2+ seasons (his first 2 nba seasons and the start of his 3rd)
Terry Porter 4,854 over 3 seasons (Flip's very first PG, though Marbury got there for Flip's first full season)
Troy Hudson 4,832 over 3 seasons
Sam Cassell 4,360 over 2 seasons
- Chauncey Billups' three best seasons in terms of PER were the three seasons of his second stint with Flip. Terrell Brandon's 4 seasons with Flip were all above his career average PER (and, what's more, they were the final 4 seasons of his career). Sam Cassell had his single best PER with Flip. Arenas has a higher career PER than any prior Flip PG.
- Only once has a Flip PG played more than 3,000 minutes in a season, and that was Marbury with 3,112 in his second NBA season. It doesn't seem that injury has been a terribly big contributor to this. Arenas has played over 3,200 minutes in 2 seasons and would have gotten there a 3rd time in 06-07. Particularly in light of the injury history, I'll be surprised if we see more than 2,900 from Arenas this year, even if he plays in 80+ games.
- The two highest usage rates for any player-season of the above were both from Cassell, with a 27.2% and a 26.4%. Arenas, meanwhile, has a career usage of 27.9% and topped 30% in both 05-06 and 06-07. Oddly enough, those Cassell numbers were both actually over his career average.
- The numbers bear out that Flip PGs have a particularly prominent role setting up their teammates. Of the 20 player-seasons, in 14 of them the player exceeded his career average in assists per 36 minutes. In 15 the player beat his career assist % (percentage of teammate baskets assisted). So, if you want to draft Arenas as your PG in fantasy, you might get a nice boost over his career assist numbers. Impressively, in 11 of the 15 higher assist % season, the player had a lower turnover % (turnovers per 100 plays) than his career average.
- Meanwhile, of the 20 player-seasons, in 9 the player exceeded his career average in FGA/36, suggesting that their shot usage stayed around their norms. Arenas, however, has taken a lot more shots than any Flip PG, with a career average 1.3 shots per 36 higher than even Cassell (and 4.2 higher than Billups, who, aside from Porter, took the fewest FGA).
- Billups was the most efficient scorer (his second time with Flip, by quite a bit). Arenas has a higher career true shooting % than anyone but Billups, and if you subtract out Billups' second stint with Flip, the two are very close.
* Note that in a full NBA season, there are a little under 4,000 minutes available per position.
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So
Based on your preliminary findings…..
We should expect a step up in Arenas’ assist numbers (from his 2005-2007 numbers of 6.0 assists per game)
We may see a lower number of turn overs
We can expect the best PER of Arenas’ career (24.07)
We should expect that Flip will play Arenas 36 minutes or less
????
All sounds GREAT to me…
If Arenas bumps up his assist numbers, to say 8 per game…. even if his points per game come down from 28-29 to 24-25 per game – He’ll be an All-Star…. and in the running for MVP.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
The increases yes, MVP...
…perhaps not. Unless Cleveland massively underachieves, Kobe’s per-game averages take a drop due to less minutes, Wade breaks down, Paul fails to bring New Orleans to the West’s middle tier, and Howard fails to develop his game on top of Washington winning over 50 games and securing a top four seed in the East, then we can talk.
To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.
actually
he’d probably need to get more like 9 or 10 assists a game…. and the Wizards would have to finish no lower than 3rd in the East… with a trip to the Conference Finals….
And you’re right, LeBron and Kobe would have to have bad years…. Although, I don’t see the Hornets getting past the first round…. and Wade and the Heat won’t make the playoffs (and if they do, it’ll be just squeaking in)…
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Playoff success has no effect on determining MVP
As for Arenas winning the MVP … let’s hope he can play period before we go all crazy about what he’ll do.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
27 days more until we see a little of what we got …. i got a feeling Areanas will play some in the Preseason … less than 4 weeks to go YALLLL !!!!!!!!!!
Post
Looking at the rosters that Flip has worked with before, one thing that strikes me is that his point guards have been some of his best back to the basket players. He hasn’t had front court players with much post up ability, except for Rasheed, and even Sheed prefers to hang around on the perimeter. In contrast, Chauncey and Sam are/were exceptional post players for their PGs. Marbury and Porter were also capable of posting up.
Our PGs have excellent size. (Especially compared to the other PGs in the East. Somehow, all of the big PGs in the NBA have ended up in the Western Conference.) I hope Gil, Crit, and Foye have been working on their post moves, since PG is the one position where we will have a size advantage most nights.
The big key is the less minutes
The best part about the the trade Grunfeld made and the installment of Flip Saunders as coach will be the managing the minutes of the top players so they don’t wear out and become more susceptible to injury late in the season. In other news, I have received my betting slip that has Washington at 65-1 to win the East! I am giddy!
"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck
by George Templeton on Sep 11, 2009 3:17 PM EDT reply actions

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