Pollin': The Jordan Effect
Back in July, 80% of you voted that Flip Saunders would be an upgrade over the departed Eddie Jordan. While there are several areas that most of you feel that Flip will improve upon, I think most of us would agree that Eddie Jordan has the upper hand when it comes to offensive scheming, thanks to his knowledge of the Princeton offense. While it's a tough offense to master, it's even harder for defenses to stop.
We've seen in the past how Eddie's offense has helped Larry Hughes and Jared Jeffries increase their value on the open market and how they were unable to replicate their production outside of the Princeton. Thankfully, the Wizards avoided getting sucked into long term deals with those two, but they're certainly not the only players who have benefited from Jordan's tutelage.
This week, you must decide which player on the roster is going to be hurt the most by moving away from the Princeton offense. Obviously players who were acquired after Eddie was fired (James, Crittenton, Miller, Foye, Oberto) are omitted from the poll, as well as JaVale McGee, since he only played 11 games with Jordan before he was let go. Your choices are below and after the jump you can check out some reasoning behind why each player's statistics could dip without the Jordan coaching the offense.
Gilbert Arenas: Arenas was a star in the making when he signed in Washington back in 2003, but Eddie Jordan is a big part of why Gilbert is the star player he is today. Since the Princeton isn't as reliant on a traditional guard designations, Arenas was free to go back and forth between being a distributor and attacking the basket as a scorer. Only time will tell if shoehorning Arenas into a more traditional point guard will help or hurt his game.
Caron Butler: Tough Juice has gone on record saying that he's a proponent of the Princeton offense. Back in March of 2006, he told Mike Wise:
"A lot of people say, 'Young black kids don't like that offense.' I don't buy that. I think it's all young kids on the playground, period. They want to run and dunk and have that freedom to score. What they don't realize is, once you learn this offense, that freedom goes to another level."
His production since joining Jordan and the Wizards certainly bears that out. Both of his All-Star appearances have come under Jordan and he saw his game steadily improve up until everything went haywire last season. If Flip takes away some of the freedoms that allowed Caron to improve his game, will his play suffer?
Andray Blatche: I'm simply putting him on here because he was here under Jordan regime and he's still a part of the squad. Either he'll improve under Saunders or he'll stay the same. It would be hard for him to play much worse than he did at the start of the season.
Brendan Haywood: They won't be going to a see a movie together anytime soon, but Haywood had arguably his best season in 2007-08 at the same time that many felt Eddie Jordan was doing his best coaching job. You could argue that Haywood's performance was helping Eddie's performance more than the other way around, but you could argue that all of the benchings in previous years were what Haywood needed to finally break out.
Antawn Jamison: One of the keys to a successful Princeton offense is having a low post player that can stretch the defense with an outside shot that opens up passing lanes for back door cuts. Certainly with Jamison, Eddie Jordan found a player that could make his offense effective and make Jamison effective in return. Like Arenas and Butler, Jamison's only All-Star appearances came under Jordan.
Dominic McGuire: McGuire didn't really see his playing time increase until after Jordan left, but perhaps another year in the system would've been what the doctor ordered to get his offense to a level that would make him more than just a defensive spark off the bench.
DeShawn Stevenson: It would be easy to argue that without Jordan, DeShawn Stevenson might not be in the league right now. After struggling to find his place in Utah and Orlando, Stevenson became a starter (albeit at a position where the team lacked depth) and parlayed a successful 2006-07 season into a 4 year, $15 million contract. This will be the year to see if Stevenson was someone who benefited from the Princeton system or was merely a product of it.
Nick Young: Shortly before he was fired, Eddie called Nick "one of our smartest players" and Nick's play during the opening month of the season seem to bear that out. The new coaching staff has helped Nick work on coming off of screens which helped him immensely in summer league action. Still, Nick had an impressive November while Jordan was still at the helm and it makes you wonder what some more time in the Princeton could've done to his game.
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Just so we're clear
I had no idea Eddie Jordan had braces until today.
Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.
Same here
I was just…shocked when I saw that picture.
by pantslessyoda1 on Sep 7, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I voted for Deshawn Stevenson
In the Princeton, he got to handle the ball a bit and serve as almost a second point guard, which showed off one of his few skills (ball handling) that are somewhat noteworthy. Now he’s probably going to have a role similar to Shane Battier or someone who just sits in the corner and waits for an open three. Also, a lot of Flip’s sets seem to revolve around people being able to hit midrange jumpers, and DSteve really doesn’t have a midrange game as far as I know. Nick Young and Foye will probably benefit, though.
I voted for Jamison
I don’t think that Jamison will get as many touches under Flip that he got with Eddie. He doesn’t set very good screens, is not a good passer, and prefers to play either behind the 3-point line or deep in the post (not at the elbow, where a lot of Flip’s Offense originates).
I think Arenas, no matter which Coach, or which Offense, will be able to get his points and assists.
Butler may actually improve. I can see his mid-range game really taking off under Flip’s system. Butler curling off screens. Butler cutting to the basket. Butler with the great passing skills.
Nick Young is another that may get much better under Flip. Number one – Flip likes big guards… (not that he’s had that many). that can run around screens all game long. At least, Young will be learning a semi-normal Professional set (screen and roll, back screens, etc…) rather than the Princeton “weave”… It can only increase his value if he can learn to hit that jumper curling off screens.
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Uhh...
I think most of us would agree that Eddie Jordan has the upper hand when it comes to offensive scheming, thanks to his knowledge of the Princeton offense.
Hell no. Absolutely hell no. Eddie Jordan’s offense was not good. That 3 man weave is ridiculous, and with no real point guard, we had a bunch of one-on-one opportunities that usually ended most possessions with a jump shot. Even if you think Eddie’s offense was good (which I don’t, at all), there’s no way in hell it compares to Flip’s offense.
My swag was phenomenal.
The Wizards were one of the best offenses in the league four years running
You may not like the style, but it worked. Offensive efficiency ranks: 10th in 05, 7th in 06, 5th in 07, 12th in 08 without Arenas all season.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
This is up for debate
But I would give the Big Three more credit than Eddie’s “knowledge of the Princeton offense.”
My swag was phenomenal.
All three of those guys had their best season with Eddie
So the Princeton obviously had some impact.
I suspect Flip’s offense will be great too, so we might not see it, but the Princeton was key in getting the most out of Arenas, Butler and Jamison.
Philly’s offense will improve this year, count on it. Their defense will suffer, but I promise they’ll be better offensively.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I fully expect the wiz offense to see a bump under Flip.
Though the individual numbers of the DC Triad may take a hit. (I’m talking effective field goal % and per100 rates, not total points per game).
Eddie’s offense was (roughly) predicated on the idea that player motion can create mismatches for offensively skilled players to get loose. Spacing and outside shooting bigs allowed attack lanes for players who could handle and go. Dribble hand offs and player motion (not ball motion) prevented opportunities for opponents to steal the ball; and driving attacks from combo guards allowed the team to take full advantage of the no-hand-check emphasis, and the free throws that result.
But the team’s raw FG%‘s were usually pretty poor. Hence the ’weave and heave’ epithet. The squad made up the difference (most years) with offensive rebounding and of course at the free throw line (Gilbert). Effectively a ‘quality shot’ in the EJ offense was a shot taken by an offensively skilled player whenever they felt the groove.
By contrast, players joining Flip’s offense tend to see an uptick in their raw FG% numbers. Many of the sets in his offense are meant to up those quality shots by using both ball movement and offball screens etc to force wide open shots. You use the pick not necessarily to free the man with the ball, but to free the man who’s about to catch it. Whether it’s Rip running off a curl, or Antonio McDyess wide open at the elbow when the defense has committed to stopping someone else. The wide open player gets the ball then shoots it.
Call it the ‘curl and hurl’ instead.
I’d guess we’d see a significantly dumbed down version of the system early on. The plays that work will be run over and over until they’re grooved, and as the opposing scouts adjust, then the counters and countercounters will be added.
But one thing is likely, we probably won’t be near last in assist rate any more. Flip likes to see players popping the ball around making good reads and short passes. And with players getting open shots, we may see the FT rate drop from the EJ offense at it’s peak (where Larry and Gil had pretty lousy raw fg numbers, but positively lived at the line) but we will see the shooting percentages begin to climb.
More importantly, with more efficient shooting percentages and less of an emphasis on (or need for) offensive rebounding, your court balance and defensive transition is much improved. If the ball goes in the net and is taken out of bounds your man can get back and set up on defense. Your bigs aren’t still standing under the basket watching for the bounce, then loping behind the action if the O-board chance is missed. You can even afford to press a bit, and force hurried passes against the time line.
Notice how defensive juggernaut San Antonio commonly trails the league in offensive boards. It’s not an inability to rebound, considering they have the best defensive rebound %‘s in the game year after year. It’s a careful choice, expecting to chuck it and miss is a lower percentage play than working for the good shot and getting back on D.
by doclinkin on Sep 8, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Nice analysis
I’m surprised by the Wizard’s offensive efficiency numbers under EJ. I suspect that had more to do with the offensive capabilities of the players than the system. There were an awful lot of unassisted jumpers, given the system’s reputation. I suppose Philly’s performance under Jordan will be a good test of that theory.
I voted Blatche
because he’s a big man who has played best outside the lane. The Princeton offense keeps big men out of the lane so that the wings can slash and drive their way through. For this same reason, Jamison was high on my list. They’re both big men who do better away from the basket. Of course, by saying that some one is hurt by Jordan leaving, I’m not saying that he is going to do any worse this season than any previous season. I’m just saying that he’s got to adjust his game accordingly, and I think Blatche and Jamison have some pretty big adjustments to make. In fact, I’m still trying to find out what kind of role Jamison will be playing under Saunders.
"One-on-one? You can't." -Gilbert Arenas
JC Bandwagon all day!
Whaa?
Hurt the most? What if the Princeton offense was holding the players back and not vice versa? I’m not sure that it wasn’t Gilbert Arenas, not Eddie Jordan, that made Jeffries and Hughes so much money. Deshawn Stevenson looked pretty good next to Arenas too.
So I guess that means your answer is "none of the above?"
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
In Larry's defense
I just want to say that Larry Hughes got big money on the open market more because of his defense than his offense. He was scoring well before he got to Washington (99-00 in Golden State he had a career high in minutes and points), but his last year here, he made the All-NBA defensive 1st team. You can’t attribute leading the league in steals to the Princeton offense. The assist numbers he put up in Washington, as well as the resurgence in his scoring after a two year lull from 01-03, are things that show that Eddie Jordan’s system worked for him. But I really believe that he was able to get teams to bid against each other over him because he was seen at the time as a great defensive player.
"One-on-one? You can't." -Gilbert Arenas
JC Bandwagon all day!
I voted for DeShawn Stevenson
I just don’t think he will get as much of an opportunity to play under Flip Saunders as he did under Eddie Jordan. That probably has more to do with the trade then the differences between the two coaches style. It might also be wishful thinking on my part because I hope to see Foye and Nick Young more.
"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck
by George Templeton on Sep 8, 2009 11:02 AM EDT reply actions
I voted Jamison
Still love him though.
Stevenson’s emergence started the year before he came to DC I think. He started every game for Orlando and turned down…what, like 20 mil? I don’t remember the exact amount but i think it was more than his current deal.
10 million
He turned down 3 years/10 million, if I remember correctly, which is actually less than what he eventually got.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Busted
Fair enough. Nice memory.
Still, it is pretty close and he did start 82 games.
Who cares about who is hurt by a new system?
And WTF is so great about the Princeton anyway? Especially since it mostly meant low FG% results. If you look at the years the Wiz played the Princeton, their FG% was mostly in the bottom half of the league. The teams with the highest FG% during the same period (Celtics, Lakers, Cavs, Jazz, Spurs) mostly went deep into the playoffs. Seems to me the Princeton is not about getting better shots but about getting more shots.
I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy.
Likewise
the teams who put up the most attempts per game over the same period are “mostly” the Warriors, Nicks, Pacers, Thunder, Wolves, Wizards, Bucks and Bobcats with some notable exceptions. Neither of these stats is a “be-all end-all” predictor of success, but hey,… they come pretty darn close to being one.
I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy.
So we'll find out
This year, the 76’ers will be running a Princeton Offense. They were pretty bad on Offense last year.. mostly relying on their running game and if that didn’t work, Andre Miller, Lou Williams, Andre Iguodala or Thaddeus Young would try to take someone off the dribble.
Philly was 24th in Eff FG% at 48.5% last year… with 23.6 TO Rate (19th in the League) and only 14.4% of their shots assisted (24th in the League)…
The Princeton is supposed to limit Turn Overs and create easy, open shots. – - – So……………..let’s see if Eddie Jordan’s vaunted Princeton can make the 76’ers a better Offensive team. It’s the perfect showplace…..
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