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Competition Discussion: Charlotte Bobcats

(Previously: Atlanta, Boston).

The season is still a ways away, but most of the rosters are set, barring the requisite Michael Jordan comeback rumor (just kidding, but only a little).  We have an idea where our team stands, but we can't really know unless we discuss everyone else.  In that spirit, I'm going to throw up a "competition discussion" thread for each of the other 29 teams over the next couple months or so.  We'll go in alphabetical order from A to Z.  Today's team: Charlotte.  Jump to the comments to discuss the Bobcats and make a prediction on their record.


 

Last year's record: 35-47 (Pythagorean record: 37-45)

Playoffs: None

Offensive Rating: 104.7 (27th)

Defensive Rating: 106.1 (7th)

Pace: 88.3 possessions/game (27th)

In: Tyson Chandler, Gerald Henderson, Derrick Brown
Out: Emeka Okafor

Projected starting lineup: Raymond Felton (assuming he re-signs), Raja Bell, Gerald Wallace, Boris Diaw, Emeka Okafor

Key themes:

  • Will the Emeka Okafor/Tyson Chandler swap actually help the ballclub?
  • Who the heck is going to score for these guys?
  • Will they re-sign Raymond Felton?  Will he get a long-term deal or just come back on the qualifying offer?  If it's the former, for how much?
  • If Felton does re-sign, what does it mean for DJ Augustin?  Should the experienced Felton start, or the promising Augustin?
  • How healthy is Tyson Chandler anyway?  Remember, Oklahoma City nixed a swap of Chandler for Chris Wilcox and Joe Smith, less value than Okafor, because they were concerned with Chandler's toe injury.  Is he all the way healthy again?
  • Will they trade any of their overpaid stiffs on the bench (Nazr Mohammad, Vladimir Radmanovic, DeSagana Diop, Matt Carroll)?  Will anyone give anything for them?
  • Who does owner Bob Johnson sell the team to, if anyone?  What effect might that have on their season?
  • Is Allen Iverson coming?

Star-divide

Let's start with a bit of a tangent.  Many of you have probably read Michael Lewis' ground-breaking book Moneyball, which describes how the Oakland Athletics were able to succeed without spending much money.  The book details how Oakland went after players with high on-base percentages and tons of college experience, traits undervalued at the time.  Many readers wrongly equated the "moneyball" approach with the "get guys with high OBP" approach, when really the only reason Beane went after those types of guys was because they were undervalued at the time.  Moneyball was really about exploiting market inefficiencies, not about collecting players that possess certain qualities.

In the NBA, I think we are starting to realize that defense is a bit undervalued on the market.  Sure, we say "defense wins championships," but great individual defenders rarely get paid like the top scorers in the game.  An extreme NBA "moneyball" approach would be to build a team entirely of great defenders and forget scoring.  Someone would do this not because defense is more important than offense, but because defense costs less.

The commonly-cited NBA "moneyball" team is the Houston Rockets.  Lewis himself probably kick-started this movement with his long piece on Shane Battier in February, and it also helps that Houston's GM is a math whiz kid.  In pure moneyball terms, Houston fits.

But let's now define "moneyball" by the terms of those who read Lewis' book and assumed "moneyball"=get guys with high OBPs, forgetting the cost.  In NBA terms, that would mean fielding a team of defenders only because you think a team of all defenders wins.  If you define "moneyball" that way, the Charlotte Bobcats are the NBA's "moneyball" team.

Seriously, who is going to generate efficient offense for this team?  With the Emeka Okafor/Tyson Chandler trade done, the Bobcats now have just one player (Gerald Wallace) who posted an above-average PER last season.  While Wallace is a very good player, he's also very limited as a top option because of a spotty outside shot (not to mention he also has missed an average of 16 games a year in his five-year Bobcat tenure).

If Wallace doesn't create offense for himself, who does?  Raymond Felton can create shots, but he can't make them, not with a career 48.7 TS%.  Boris Diaw is the opposite; he can hit shots a bit, but doesn't attempt enough.  Chandler doesn't have a post game and got most of his points in New Orleans from Chris Paul.  DJ Augustin was solid as a rookie, but he'd have to take a major leap to be an efficient scorer with more usage.

The flip side is Charlotte could potentially be awesome defensively.  Chandler, Wallace and Bell are top-five defenders at their positions, and Diaw is pretty close behind.  Off the bench, Diop's an excellent shot-blocker and rookie Gerald Henderson was known in part for his defense at Duke.

Great defense, horrific offense.  It'll certainly be an interesting test.

My guess, though, is that Charlotte won't be very good.  You can be great defensively, but you can't win without some efficient scoring from somewhere.  There's not a whole lot of "greater than the sum of its parts" potential with this offense either.  Diaw's the only good passer, and everyone else either thinks shoot-first (Augustin, Felton) or is a finisher (Bell, Chandler).  Chandler and Wallace also bring a ton of injury potential, which will derail their season.  Add in improvement from teams like Toronto and Washington, who both finished below Charlotte last year, and the playoffs aren't going to be on the horizon.

Mike's prediction: 32-50, fifth in the Southeast, 12th in the East.

Atlanta Boston Charlotte
Mike Prada 47-35 57-25 32-50
JakeTheSnake 44-38 55-27 32-50
Truth About It 45-37 ?
Rook6980 45-37 44-38
Bwoodsxyz 45-37 56-26

0 recs  |  Comment 13 comments

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Prediction time!

Oct 2009 by Mike Prada - 50 comments

Comments

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Interesting analysis

I think the obvious thing for Charlotte to do would be to trade some of those bigs to a soft team with a bunch of extra scorers like, uh, us. Nick Young, Mike James (who played for Larry Brown in Detroit), and maybe Andray Blatche for some combination of bigs and wing defenders would make sense for both teams. Other good trade partners are as follows:
—Detroit (maybe Rip Hamilton? Gordon would actually be even better for Charlotte)
—Portland (maybe they trade Fernandez?)
—Indiana
—Phoenix
—LA Clippers

Also, Iverson makes so much sense here that it’s not even funny. They ought to sign and trade Felton (maybe to Portland? Andre Miller isn’t really a long-term solution at point guard) and use some of the money they can save to sign AI. Granted, he’s not the most efficient scorer in the world, but he’s going to be a better first or second option than Raymond Felton or Gerald Wallace.

by pantslessyoda1 on Sep 5, 2009 9:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

A Larry Brown/Iverson reunion would be one of few things that would restore Iverson’s reputation.

by Fundefined on Sep 5, 2009 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Okafor for Chandler???

I don’t see how this team doesn’t get worse unless Henderson becomes a very good rookie (which I think is possible). To me, Okafor is better than Chandler at both ends of the floor. I have no idea why Charlotte made that trade. The only reason I’ll predict 33 wins is because Larry Brown will have them playing excellent D. Iverson coming to town might add a couple of wins, but it wouldn’t get them in the playoffs.

by steadyhand on Sep 6, 2009 12:36 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That trade almost made them a caricature of a Larry Brown team

They traded a guy who was a good defender and who could score for a guy who’s a good defender and nothing else. Like, I know LB likes defenders, but why trade a two way guy for a one dimensional player? He’s almost becoming a parody of himself, sort of in the same way that Don Nelson is by playing Stephen Jackson at center and having seven or eight shooting guards and no point guard. It’s just absurd. They’re basically turning themselves into the Yao and TMac-less Rockets, but they’re doing it on purpose.

by pantslessyoda1 on Sep 6, 2009 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Even with all the roster shifting

Charlotte was still 7th in defensive efficiency last year, a monumental increase from the 20th-ranked defense they had a year earlier. It really does make perfect sense for them to add Iverson though — they need some source of offense to lift what was the fourth-worst offense in the league last year, and the adverse effects from Iverson’s ball-dominance and defensive-hawking will be minimized in Brown’s system, especially because he’s had experience coaching Iverson. If Iverson doesn’t sign with Charlotte, though, their offense might actually get worse, considering that Okafor was at least good for double-digit points a game, whereas Chandler relies strictly on moving without the ball.

I don’t see why the ownership group wouldn’t sign off on this, even with an impending sale. Iverson would come cheap for one year, is a ticket draw, and would restore some semblance of media attention to an otherwise dismal team. Hell, they’d even have a shot at the playoffs if Iverson and Brown keep their heads on.

To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.

by Ben R on Sep 6, 2009 4:33 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

32-50

I don’t think that Charlotte is employing a defense-only Moneyball strategy so much as they’re just putting together a bad squad.

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by JakeTheSnake on Sep 6, 2009 8:31 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

larry brown's 76ers

all defensive players around iverson. that worked. this team has no iverson. it’ll likely be bad. larry brown will want to trade half his team by half way through the season.

one thing this team will be is aggressive. they might win a couple extra games because if i was a coach playing them, i might play my best guys less minutes to avoid having wallace or bell injure them like gerald did to gilbert three years ago.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Sep 6, 2009 12:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

larry brown will want to trade half his team by half way through the season.

He’s already traded away half the team… and the other half, no one wants…

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Sep 6, 2009 3:36 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

eh, i wouldn't write him off

maybe he’ll repeat what he did with mark jackson and reacquire players he’s already traded.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Sep 8, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Larry Brown has finished re-making the Bobcats in his image: “Defense, defense, defense….. and Oh yeah, sometimes we’ll have to score the ball.”

Raymond Felton will probably return, considering that all the Free Agent money has dried up. If Allen Iverson can’t get a mid-Level deal, then certainly Raymond Felton will have a difficult time signing anywhere else. Felton will be the starter at the beginning of the year but I believe the team will probably make the transition to D. J. Audustin as the starting PG by the end of the year. Raja Bell will be the starting SG, and even though he’ll be 33 this September, Larry Brown will play him 34-36 minutes a game again this year. Gerald Wallace is a fixture at SF. Boris Diaw seemed to play much better after he was released from his Phoenix prison cell.

This offseason, the Bobcats made a very strange trade in my view. They swapped Emeka Okafor for Tyson Chandler. I understand that Larry Brown values defense over offense…. but there’s not really much difference between Okafor and Chandler defensively. Okafor is a very good defender in the post and a slightly better rebounder than Chandler (Rebound rate: 19 vs 16.4). Okafor also blocks more shots, he’s a much better Offensive player and he turns the ball over less than Chandler..

So, unless Okafor has a long term injury problem that I’ve not heard about (and that New Orleans didn’t catch), or there was a locker room problem – I don’t get it. They save the last three years of Okafor’s salary, but they actually took on more salary this year as a result of the trade. Is it possible they just wanted to rent a center for a couple of years until Ajinca develops?

They drafted Gerald Henderson, a 6’5" shooting guard from Duke, known for his defense and a budding but versatile Offensive game. Neither Ajinca nor Henderson will get enough minutes this year to make a difference.

I agree with pantslessyoda1 – bringing in Allen Iverson would make a lot of sense for Charlotte – unfortunately (for the Bobcats), it looks like Iverson will be signing with the Memphis Grizzlies – so where does Charlotte go to get some scoring? They traded away their only real low post threat in Okafor. As Mike Prada mentioned, Raymond Felton cannot shoot…Gerald Wallace is better when someone else creates space (ie: a knock down shooter). I just don’t see how Charlotte is going to score enough points to win consistently.

What does all this mean? Even with the development of Augustin, and the improved Diaw, and a sticky Defense, I don’t see a chance for Charlotte to improve their record this year. They are stuck in NBA mediocrity hell – just bad enough to miss the playoffs; just good enough to miss out on the high Lottery picks,

I predict: 34-48

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Sep 6, 2009 7:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The Bobcats played just under .500 ball (27-29 W-L) after a poor start (first 25 games or so) last season.

They have enough talent to repeat that over a full season. Their defense will carry them that far.

by NBR on Sep 6, 2009 7:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't see it

What exactly Charlotte is doing with that team is a quite baffling … the same fans who seemed to be so passionate about the Hornets are being severely turned off by the inept management of their new team. They’re almost like the Washington Nationals of the NBA.

When looking at the other teams of the East, I only really see the Bobcats being better than the Nets, who will be pretty terrible. Defense is great, but when your crappy offense is constantly giving the other team more offensive chances, all of that D will eventually break down.

Felton and the team are still at odds, Larry Brown is likely “getting too old for this ish”, and I would not be surprised if Gerald Wallace was finally traded.

Win Prediction: 29 games

Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.

by Truth About It on Sep 7, 2009 5:37 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Agree that it is an odd team

And with NBR’s comment. This is definitely taking the shape of a Larry Brown sort of team. The big question is which version of Tyson Chandler they are getting. If he is healthy, but lacking a Chris Paul to help him on offense, then based on his Chicago days I’m thinking 5.5 wins versus the 7.9 they got from Okafor last year. With that dropoff applied to their post-trade record, I’ll go with 37-45.

by bwoodsxyz on Sep 9, 2009 10:00 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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