Mike’s keeping track…..

The last time I made a prediction for the Eastern Conference, I didn’t do so well.

I gotta think about it a while……

OK – I’ve been vocal with my buddies, and verbose here about how I think the Boston Celtics cannot continue to skate through each year, getting older and older, without any major injuries…. (KG’s knee notwithstanding)….

I’m firmly convinced that the Wizards will end up 3rd in the East. It’s my feeling that one of the top three teams (Cleveland, Boston or Orlando) will suffer through a tough year injury wise. Do I have stats to back up my ‘feeling"? No. Do I have some obscure medical facts? No. I just know that the teams at the top of the standings had really good luck with injuries; and I’m tired of seeing the Celtics, or the Cavaliers with their top 8 guys playing in an average of 73-78 games a year.

In 2007-08, when they won the East (and eventually the Championship), Boston’s top 8 players averaged 76 games played. Last year, their top 8 averaged 72 games played – even with KG missing 25 games)… Last year, Orlando’s top 8 averaged almost 75 games played. Cleveland’s top 8 averaged 72 games played (even with Ben Wallace missing a third of the year)…. Meanwhile, the Wizard’s top 8 averaged 50.5 games played….

So how does that translate to the Wizards ending up 3rd in the East?

One of those top teams will fall prey to the injury bug this year. It may be Cleveland or Orlando, but Boston has the oldest roster; and the most mileage on their superstar players. Mike pointed out that even without KG, Boston took Orlando to 7 games – but that was with Rondo playing out of his mind to barely get past Chicago, almost averaging a triple-double for the playoffs before finally falling to Orlando in 7 games. Then, for some unknown reason the Boston General Manager shopped him around the League this off-season; and his Coach bad mouthed him, saying he was hard to coach. Garnett is known for his intense attitude; and not just on the floor, but in the Locker room as well. Now add the mercurial Rasheed Wallace to that locker room. How long do you think it will take before Sheed is complaining about not being in the starting lineup? He’s never been a “shut up and play” kind of guy.

When the season starts, Pierce will be 32, and he’s the youngster of the group. Garnett will be 33 with a bum knee. Allen is 34 and Wallace will be 35.

Kevin Garnett has played almost 40,000 minutes in NBA games. And Garnett’s minutes were played down low…. with constant pounding in the post. That’s a lot of wear and tear. (to provide some context, the Wizard’s elder statesman Antawn Jamison has played a little over 29,000 NBA minutes)

So – if I have to pick a team that will fall flat this year, it’s the Boston Celtics. 44-38 (1st in the Atlantic)

If this were the wishful thinking thread, I’d put them under 50 wins (though still not as far as Rook did). They seem to have a lot of places where they could get derailed. That’s a lot of guys with a lot of miles in key roles, they’ve antagonized their (very valuable) young point guard, I still just don’t trust Doc Rivers, KG may not be healthy, etc.

But, since it is my role to do it this way and no one else has yet, I’ll go strictly by the numbers, mostly Win Shares.

Last year, as noted by Prada, they won 62 but had a pythagorean of 61. Their cumulative WS also basically works out to 61, so I’ll use that as a starting point.

Looking at their transactions (crudely just filling the minutes lost), Williams for Moore is essentially a wash, and maybe even a slight downgrade. Daniels for Marbury gains nearly a win. Sheed for Powe is actually a notable downgrade on offense (though a gain on defense), with a net loss of over 2 wins. So, that takes it down to about 60 wins.

Looking at the returning players, I’m just going to give them Garnett’s and Pierce’s production from last year. Pierce had a bit of an off year and it is anyone’s guess what Garnett will be like.

Ray Allen had perhaps his second best year ever. This was driven largely by gains WS thinks he has made on defense over the last couple years, which I suspect to be driven by who he has around him. he also had his most efficient shooting season, which strikes me as a bit fluky. I’m going to dock him back to his career norm, which also happens to be his 07-08 production of 9.5 wins, putting the team at 58.5

As for Rondo, I must admit that I’ve looked for ways to call a fall-off in his production. (Not because I don’t like him. I do. For a Celtic. More because there are so many things that could go astray for him.) On defense, I think he’s probably already maxed out. On offense, he certainly has room for growth (especially in his jump shooting). But, he could easily see significant fall-off overall if he drives to the rim less. He has taken an extraordinary number of inside shots for a PG, very productively, especially for one who isn’t all that big (yes, I know, he has long arms). I’m going to let a little bit of gut feeling creep in and assume he backslides part-way back to his sophomore production on offense. There goes another 1.5 wins, down to 57.

Eddie House shot just crazy well last year. Returning him to career-average production takes away another win. 56.

Perkins is young enough to have theoretical upside, but hasn’t shown much reason to think he actually will get better on offense. He’s probably tapped out on defense. No change.

Everything else is fiddling around the margins. 56-26, mostly because they have a harder time scoring due to a drop-off in outside shooting.

There’s too much talent here to not drop off as hugely as some people here are expecting. KG has at least two years of elite production left in him on both ends, Allen’s primary skill doesn’t decline with age, Pierce should remain fairly solid next year, Rondo, Perkins, and Davis will only get better, and ’Sheed’s style of play has significantly reduced the strain on his body. I could see the injury bug causing them problems, but not enough to drop from third in the East. They simply have a much larger margin for error than say Washington, which needs all of its stars to be healthy, Saunders’ system to jumpstart the offense to elite status, and acquire some semblance of defense. I think Washington will be good, but it’s really wishful thinking to expect Boston to drop off tremendously and Washington to overachieve to such a degree.

Past 2011 though, they’re done with that core. KG and Pierce will have significantly slowed down, and I can’t see Davis or Perkins suddenly becoming elite players to compensate for their loss.

Is he a good coach, or just lucky?

I think Boston fans, before KG fell into their lap, were a bit too critical of Doc. That being said, I think he has the potential to get out-coached by someone like Flip Saunders in the playoffs …. yes, even though Rivers has won a championship.

Overall, I think the Celtics, between a combination of injury and taking the regular season for granted, will falter a bit during the 82 game stretch and will be fighting with Atlanta for that 4-5 seed, potentially setting up a nice battle between the two (where I’d be tempted to take the Hawks to win the first round series).

Of course, this depends on a lot of “ifs” … and Boston, as a 4 or 5 seed, will be that team that “no one wants to face”, for obvious reasons, and for the fact that their role players will likely get significant run during the regular season.

Rondo won’t be taking a step back, but the team will still need to find their way under his offensive guidance, the integration of Rasheed, and dealing with Kendrick Perkins, whose personality could get in the way of him being an upper echelon TEAM contributor.

Win Prediction: 54