Ernie Grunfeld on the Wizards' use of advanced stats: "We use some services"

by Mike Prada on Sep 24, 2009 4:18 PM EDT in Team Analysis

I don't remember anything too eventful off the top of my head about Ernie Grunfeld's press conference today, just because he typically spoke in generalities and avoided getting too specific about things in front of the tape recorders and the cameras.

However, afterwards, I was able to get Ernie to talk a bit about his feelings about some of the more advanced stats that are used by several organizations, most notably the Houston Rockets:

"Statistics sometimes are very important, [but] they're part of the process," he said. "At the end of the day, I trust my eyes as much as I trust statistics. Not every player is a stat player. A lot of times, a guy does a lot of little things that don't show up in stats ... I think those stat things are great for fantasy leagues and things like that."

However, that doesn't mean Grunfeld and the rest of the team don't use them to paint part of the picture.

"We look at them too, to see who has what type of efficiency and other things," he said. "In my opinion, you can't put everything in that basket, but it does play an important role over a long period of time. It shows certain trends."

I asked him point blank whether the Wizards employ any stat guys, like the Rockets and the Cavaliers and several other NBA teams that I don't know of off the top of my head. Ernie's response:

"Do we have a [stat guy]? No. But we use some services to do some statistical things for us," he said.

Full report coming later.

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Comments

That is disappointing

While I agree with his philosophy that using your eyes is just as important as what the stats say, only having scouts and not stat guys puts too much emphasis on what you see. There is only so much tape, and only so many games you can see. Stats can capture way more information that any one person. It can help make you and your scouts so much more efficient and effective

But I guess there is just as good a chance that he has a whole outside firm crunching numbers and generating weekly reports for Ernie and like always he just wants to keep his cards close to his chest

by Blatche4MVP on Sep 24, 2009 4:54 PM EDT reply actions

Ernie is “old school”….

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Sep 24, 2009 5:39 PM EDT reply actions

Things beyond the box score

I completely agree that "a lot of times, a guy does a lot of little things that don’t show up in stats … " And when I say “stats” I’m including everything, including all of the ‘advanced stats’ I’ve thrown around, the ones on 82games, etc. But. Teams like the Rockets and Mavs have added dedicated staff to try to create stats to back up the scouts’ work by capturing and tracking those things.

Does that mean you need to hire someone to do that? No. But with how much money is spent on scouting, not to mention players’ salaries, why wouldn’t you try to do that? And, really, I’m thinking more about it in terms of use in game-planning than in player acquisition.

by bwoodsxyz on Sep 24, 2009 5:41 PM EDT reply actions

Think of it as an investment

The cost of hiring full-time staff to grind numbers is how small, relative to the cost of signing one mediocre free agent whose raw numbers are inflated due to circumstance?

A single shrewd signing, or non-signing, would justify the existence of a veritable department of statisticians on any given team.

by feral on Sep 24, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Better yet

In a move towards poetic justice, Ernie should have those bad signings crunch the numbers. Why can’t Mike James calculate some stats while he’s sitting on the bench?

by disgrunted on Sep 24, 2009 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions

It would be interesting to learn which stats he is interested in reviewing, both as to his team, and as to opposing players and teams.

by disgrunted on Sep 24, 2009 5:59 PM EDT reply actions

Shoot, I just thought of a good way to backdoor a question about Gilbert’s comments to Mike Jones and about the medical staff generally: “Ernie, if a player desires to have a doctor other than the doctors the Wizards have on staff look at an injury, do the Wizards pay for that or does the player have to pay for it? Do your players often prefer to use outside medical help?”

by disgrunted on Sep 24, 2009 6:05 PM EDT reply actions

Well ... we know that Gilbert paid for Tim Grover, not the team

So …. that’s one reason for Gil to support the methods of ATTACK.

Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.

by Kyle Weidie on Sep 25, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Naked eye over numbers

Its superstition, plain and simple, to think he has intuition incapable of being quantified for empirical statistical analysis.

by morethesamewiz on Sep 24, 2009 8:12 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

I would really like to have one of the stats nerds on this site make an offer to Ernie (I’m looking at you, bwoods). Whether it’s a part time/low pay gig or a bigger deal, I think that if he saw the cost of if, and if you walked in with some statistically grounded hypotheses that could make the case, he’d either be open to it or tell you why the stuff he’s buying solves the problem. It really might be a case of him never having considered the cost/benefit of hiring that person.

by RamV on Sep 24, 2009 8:27 PM EDT reply actions

I suspect this as well

I also get the sense he thinks of the individual stats like PER rather than stuff like APM which tries to quantify the previously-unquantifiable.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Sep 25, 2009 2:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Thing is, more and more teams are moving beyond APM.

I can’t even fathom what teams like the Cavaliers, Nuggets, Rockets, and others are working behind the scenes. For the Wizards not to have any people looking at the numbers puts the organization “behind the times”, so to speak. Since Washington is clearly in ‘win-now’ mode, it would seem counter-productive for Grunfeld and others to not look at all the statistical possibilities in trying to succeed.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 25, 2009 4:34 AM EDT up reply actions

Sounds like a good basis for a column

I’ll try to use an upcoming column to survey some of what other teams are doing with way-outside-the-box-score stats.

by bwoodsxyz on Sep 25, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions

I'll put things in perspective.

Seven of the eight teams in the Semifinals have some form of analytical departments, some more than others – Cavaliers, Celtics, Lakers, Magic, Mavericks, Nuggets, Rockets.

That should give people a hint where statistics are heading, in terms of having value.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 25, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Atlanta has a stats guy?

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Sep 25, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't believe so.

From what I’ve heard and have been told, no.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 25, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions

So then it's six of eight, not seven of eight

Because the Lakers don’t have a stats guy.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Sep 26, 2009 2:53 AM EDT up reply actions

You're right. I don't know why I had the Lakers in there.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 26, 2009 5:04 AM EDT up reply actions

A decent college math student using only resources such as 82games.com could prevent so many costly organizational decisions and would cost little to nothing in expenses. Not having a stat person to analyze the data in this age is almost akin to walking blind.

by Fundefined on Sep 24, 2009 11:24 PM EDT reply actions

EG is hardly blind

you’re also making an assumption that he doesn’t use the stat services. just because he isn’t stat-oriented doesn’t mean he can’t continue to be successful.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Sep 25, 2009 11:39 AM EDT reply actions

I'd worry about Flip using stats rather than Ernie

Here’s what Flip said on ‘Fan Night’:

On statistical analysis in basketball vs. what he physically sees and his gut feeling:

"It’s a combination." Flip went on the tell of computer software technology which charts everything that happens on every play and spits back out percentages and tendencies for various scenarios in real time.

"When it comes down to it, in the last few minutes of the game ….. you gotta coach with your gut. Statistics, what you see, and what can really happen doesn’t always hold true. But you use those things to help you." -Flip S.

Then there’s this post on TrueHoop today:

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-44-93/Up-Three—Without-the-Ball—To-Foul-or-Not—New-Insight.html

Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.

by Kyle Weidie on Sep 25, 2009 1:59 PM EDT reply actions

Two things going on

That Flip quote is comforting, without a doubt. I sort of see two parts of the use of stats that are overlapping, but not entirely. One is the use of stats for developing strategy. That quote makes it seem that Flip is on board with that. Also—and maybe this is reading too much into things—the way he describes his playbook also implies to me that he must be looking at some sort of data as he works on these things.

And, truly, I’m totally and completely on board with coaching “from the gut” in crunchtime if the decisionmaker has at some point considered the numbers. The experienced, qualified, obviously smart coach going against the odds doesn’t bother me at all if he’s at some point actually considered what the odds (in the abstract) might be.

The second piece of the use of stats is in player evaluation. That’s what (I hope) EG was reacting to. EG’s track record here is interesting. Miller is almost the archetype of what sort of experienced player a stat-head would want the team to pick up (positional needs aside). That’s obvious from WoW’s recent love for him. On the other hand, this is the same organization that inflicted years of Etan Thomas’s “rebounding” and “toughness” on us, because he looks like a rebounder and tries hard on defense.

by bwoodsxyz on Sep 25, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions