Competition Discussion: Detroit Pistons
(Previously: Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver).
The season is still a ways away, but most of the rosters are set, barring the requisite Michael Jordan comeback rumor (just kidding, but only a little). We have an idea where our team stands, but we can't really know unless we discuss everyone else. In that spirit, I'm going to throw up a "competition discussion" thread for each of the other 29 teams over the next couple months or so. We'll go in alphabetical order from A to Z. Today's team: Detrout. Jump to the comments to discuss the Pistons and make a prediction on their record.
Last year's record: 39-43 (Pythagorean record: 40-42)
Playoffs: Lost to Cleveland 4-0 in first round.
Offensive Rating: 107.4 (21st)
Defensive Rating: 108 (16th)
Pace: 86.7 possessions/game (29th)
In: Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva, Chris Wilcox, Ben Wallace, Austin Daye, DaJuan Summers
Out: Allen Iverson, Rasheed Wallace, Antonio McDyess, Amir Johnson, Arron Afflalo
Projected starting lineup: Rodney Stuckey, Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Charlie Villanueva, Kwame Brown
Key themes:
- Once again, Detroit banked on the "reclamation projects" route, getting Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva and Chris Wilcox, all guys who, it could be argued, needed a change of scenery. How well does that strategy work?
- Detroit has three solid guards (Gordon, Stuckey, Rip) and not much time to divide between them. How will the backcourt rotation work out?
- Michael Curry was a train wreck as a coach, so how much can John Kuestner improve things?
- Who plays defense, particularly up front?
- How will they achieve more offensive balance when all their top offensive options are jump-shot first?
- Rip Hamilton whined about sharing time with Allen Iverson last year. How will he react to losing minutes to Ben Gordon?
- What does Detroit expect Rodney Stuckey to become? He didn't make a ton of progress last year, but can he adequately man the point and continue to progress?
- How much truth is there to the claim that losing AI and Sheed will be addition by subtraction?
Like Dallas, Detroit is a team that's clearly not fully constructed. At least I'd hope not. The only difference is that, unlike Dallas, Detroit doesn't have a ton of tradeable assets to immediately balance the roster more easily. They don't have a ton of young players and they cannot expect to get much for Rip Hamilton's bloated contract.
What Detroit does have is talent, particularly offensively. Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva, the two big free agent acquisitions, both can really score the ball. In particular, Gordon is talked about for all the things he can't do (pass, defend, etc.) rather than the one thing he can do really, really well, and that's score over 20 points/36 minutes with an unbelievably high (for a guard) 57.3 TS%. They'll help an offense that became really stale last season. Combine them with holdovers like Rip (still a decent player), Prince (also decent and still only 29), Stuckey (who we'll get to in a minute) and a great offensive mind like Kuestner, and you can see how Detroit might be potent offensively.
There are just two problems. One is obvious: who will defend? Detroit's interior defensive options right now are Kwame Brown (who is decent on defense), Jason Maxiell (too small), Chris Wilcox (a pathetic defender) and Ben Wallace (who was washed up three years ago). It's very hard to build a good defense without a good defensive big. Throw in the pathetic defense of Villanueva and the limited defense of Gordon and Hamilton, and who exactly guards people? Prince can still defend but he's getting slower, and he won't be as good without the Wallaces behind him. I wouldn't be surprised to see this team be one of the five worst in the league defensively. At the very least, I'd be shocked if they crack the top 20.
The other problem is getting the offensive pieces to fit. Kuestner is an offensive genius, and if anyone can do it, it's him, but he has several personnel shortcomings to overcome. One is what to do with Stuckey, who didn't show a lot of progress last year. He spent too much time pounding the dribble and not enough time setting up himself or his teammates for good shots. With all the offensive possibilities on the roster, Stuckey may have to fundamentally change his game. Another issue is Villanueva, who is the classic case of a player who puts up numbers without making much of an impact on the game. His usage rate soared through the roof last year because of Milwaukee's injuries and will likely fall back down this time around. Can he maintain decent efficiency with fewer opportunities? I say this only because his efficiency was a career-best last year by a pretty wide margin, as were several other advanced stats like assist rate.
Detroit fans probably counter these objectives by saying they won 39 games despite literally everything going wrong, so they have to be better with the chemistry killers (AI, Sheed) gone. Maybe that's true. But while Gordon is better than AI, you run into the same problems of finding him on-court time that you did with AI. Villanueva is better offensively than Wallace, but he's nowhere near Sheed defensively. I don't see much immediate improvement coming from those two moves. Then, you throw in the improvement of the East, the expected decline of Rip and Prince and the loss of McDyess (which will hurt), and I don't see how Detroit's better next year even if Kuestner is a major coaching upgrade.
Down the road, there might be something here. Just not now.
Mike's prediction: 38-44, third in the Central, 10th in the East.
| Team | Mike Prada | JakeTheSnake | Truth About It | Rook6980 | bwoodsxyz |
| Atlanta | 47-35 | 44-38 | 45-37 | 45-37 | 45-37 |
| Boston | 57-25 | 55-27 | 54-28 | 44-38 | 56-26 |
| Charlotte | 32-50 | 32-50 | 29-53 | 34-48 | 37-45 |
| Chicago | 39-43 | 40-42 | 42-40 | 40-42 | 44-38 |
| Cleveland | 63-19 | 60-22 | 64-18 | 64-18 | 61-21 |
| Dallas | 49-33 | 44-38 | 51-31 | 50-32 | 47-35 |
| Denver | 53-29 | 53-29 | 52-30 | 51-31 | |
| Detroit | 38-44 | 42-40 | 38-44 | 35-47 |
0 recs |
13 comments
Comments
42-40
Every fiber of my being tells me this is a sub .500 team, but when it came down to putting all of these teams in order and figuring out records, this was the absolute lowest record I could justify giving them. I’m probably going to look back and laugh at this prediction.
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by JakeTheSnake on Sep 21, 2009 1:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Rasheed
Losing Sheed hurts the Pistons more than it helps the Celtics, in my opinion. While the Celtics just added another guy in the twilight of his career with the hope that a change of scenery will revitalize him, the Pistons lost a guy who helped them win a championship, a guy who their defense was largely built around, and a guy who, despite this talk of chemistry, gelled with the nucleus of that team while he was there. Is he the number one guy in the league for developing chemistry? No, of course not. But he’s far from the worst. Of course, that’s how I see it. I’m sure that’s not the way everyone sees it, which is why everyone keeps talking about chemistry.
"One-on-one? You can't." -Gilbert Arenas
JC Bandwagon all day!
by kseandoyle on Sep 21, 2009 1:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
WS 35 wins (or much less)
The WoW win shares figures for Gordon and Villanueva are actually lower than the Basketball Reference figures that I usually use. (No, I haven’t studied the reason—it is on my to do list.) WoW calculated just over 28 wins for this team. http://dberri.wordpress.com/2009/07/19/the-magic-and-pistons-go-different-directions/
Using the BR stats, I come up with 35-47. The loss of both Wallace AND McDyess is a lot to overcome and their roster moves aren’t enough to fill the gap. Gordon actually looks like an upgrade over the combo of AI and Afflalo, and I think Gordon and Hamilton should be a very interesting combination to watch, but this team is really hurting on defense and in the post unless Dumars has a time machine or rejuvenation machine ready for Joe Smith and Ben Wallace.
by bwoodsxyz on Sep 21, 2009 2:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Pistons are no longer the “veteran” club we remember from years past. Dumars has re-tooled this team over the last two years. Gone are the familiar faces of Chauncy Billups, Rasheed Wallace, Antonio McDyess, along with a quick hello by Allen Iverson, etc.; replaced by Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva, Austin Daye, etc. – - – They’ve gone from a Defensive minded team, to an Offensive minded team, almost overnight. But who will pass the ball? Who will rebound? Who will play defense?
Stuckey has a 24.2% Assist ratio, and Rip Hamilton has made some strides in the last few years to become a better passer; but pretty much everyone else on the roster is an Offensive black hole. Neither Gordon nor Villanueva will pass up the opportunity to shoot the basketball. Chris Wilcox can’t spell the word ‘pass’. Between them, Detroit’s big men (Villanueva, Wilcox, Ben Wallace and Kwame Brown) averaged less than 4 assists last year – combined.
Rebounding will be another problem. The four aformentioned “big men” for Detroit all are deficient in the rebounding department. Ben Wallace’s defense and rebounding have declined rapidly over the last several years. Kwame Brown, the projected starting Center, is a below average rebounder. Villanueva has always been a poor rebounder, although his numbers in that area increased last year; and Chris Wilcox is also a deficient.
Despite the moves they made this summer, I think the Pistons are STILL in rebuilding mode; and I don’t think they’re done. The addition of Ben Gordon begs the question of who is the starting SG? Rip Hamilton is the incumbent… but the Pistons didn’t sign Gordon to a 5 year/$55 million contract to watch him come off the bench. On the other hand, Dumars also signed Richard Hamilton to a 3-year, 34 Million contract extension in November 2008. One of the reasons Gordon left Chicago is that he wanted a chance to start – - And Hamilton didn’t take too well coming off the bench when it was perennial All-Star Allen Iverson he was backing up – I hardly think he’ll be amenable to taking that bench seat behind Gordon. That will be one of John Kuester’s first big tests. How to make two starters at the same position happy.
They drafted Austin Daye, a 6’10" rail thin SF from Gonzaga. Daye is a younger (read: cheaper) clone of Tayshawn Prince. A long, lanky perimeter player with good range on his jump shot. High skill level, with excellent timing on blocks. A good ball-handler with both hands.
If Daye progresses quickly, I wouldn’t be surprised to hear Tayshawn Prince’s name in trade conversations in the next year…. As a matter of fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to hear both Prince and Rip Hamilton’s names in trade talks.
So, the Pistons have some scoring talent on the perimeter, but what about down low? How do these names grab you: Kwame Brown, Chris Wilcox, Jason Maxiell and 66 year old Ben Wallace…. Pretty scary huh?
Maybe Rookie Head Coach John Keuster can get the most out of Ben Gordon and Rip Hamilton without any dramatic locker room fireworks. Maybe Keuster can coax some defensive effort, and rebounding out of a pretty pathetic front line. Perhaps he can instill a sense of teamwork – and get the team to think about passing the ball, instead of chucking a shot as soon as they touch the ball. Maybe it will all work out somehow………….. uh…. but I’m not betting my house on it.
38-44, fourth in the Central, eleventh in the East
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
by Rook6980 on Sep 21, 2009 3:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Will Bynum
Bynum wrests the starting job from Stuckey this year, and is a candidate for Most Improved. However, the team still only wins 35 games because they have no inside presence and can’t defend. What were they (and Gordon) thinking with that signing? It’s going to be tough to trade either of those guys, and neither one can play another position. It might be fun to see Gordon try the point though — he might actually be the best option there. Look for Kwame to get big minutes as the only guy with any size on this squad.
by steadyhand on Sep 21, 2009 5:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Look for Kwame to get big minutes
Funny thing is, he will get big minutes. But big minutes for Kwame is 20-25….. He’ll probably put up OK rebounding numbers, with so-so Offensive numbers…. say 6 ppg and 6 rpg….. and next off-season, some idiotic GM out there, desperate for a back-up Center will give him close to MLE money, AGAIN, …………….overlooking the number of Offensive possessions he squanders with his turn-overs, terrible passing and bad shots – - – - -
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
by Rook6980 on Sep 21, 2009 6:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
bwahahahahaha
Kwame Brown as a starter. That’s pure comedic gold. Remember the time Kobe passed him the ball in a Lakers-Wiz game and it bounced off his head and out of bounds? Good times…
by sierradave on Sep 21, 2009 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Kobe did that on purpose
to give the crowd a little added entertainment. Thanks, Kobe! I just knew you always hated Kwame just as much as we do!
"One-on-one? You can't." -Gilbert Arenas
JC Bandwagon all day!
by kseandoyle on Sep 22, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who's going to play instead?
There’s not another center on the team, unless you think Big Ben can manage 28 minutes per game at that spot…are you thinking they’ll play smallish PFs at center rather than give Kwame starter minutes? If they can’t make some kind of trade they’re stuck with 30+ minutes of Kwame, I think.
by steadyhand on Sep 21, 2009 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wilcox, maybe?
I imagine he’ll play minutes at the 5.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Mike Prada on Sep 21, 2009 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Pistons will surprise some ....
And finish the season at .500.
Why? Because Rodney Stuckey will really develop in that crucial third season. Bynum take his spot? Sorry steadyhand, you’re dead wrong on that one.
Sure, so many factors (new coach and defensive questions especially) tell me that the Pistons will win 36 this season, but I’m going with the gut of 41.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.
by Truth About It on Sep 21, 2009 7:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Memory failure...
I can’t believe Stuckey is only in his third year — I thought this was going to be his fourth or fifth. It seems like they were grooming him for a while. Anyway, they probably won’t bench him yet, but I would — Bynum looked very good when I saw him play, while Stuckey was uninspiring).
by steadyhand on Sep 21, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
Same draft class as Nick Young….. Drafted one spot above Nick in the 2007 draft.
Stuckey had a very good Rookie campaign, but didn’t really improve his 2nd year. Oh sure, his points per game, and assists per game went up – just because he got more minutes. If you look at his per-36 numbers, and his advanced stats (PER, Assist rate, TO rate, Usage rate, etc…), he was almost exactly the same player he was as a Rookie.
He still has the same weakness – he’s a poor jump shooter… So defenses sag off him, and play him to drive…
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
by Rook6980 on Sep 21, 2009 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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