14 players in a new system: DeShawn Stevenson
by Mike Prada on Sep 11, 2009 10:30 AM EDT
in Coaching
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PrintAlso see: An introduction to the series | Mike James | Javaris Crittenton | DeShawn Stevenson player evaluation
If DeShawn Stevenson does indeed work his way back into the regular playing rotation, it will mean he has distanced himself from a brutal 2008/09. One could make the argument that Stevenson was the worst rotation regular in basketball last season, with his awful shooting percentages and slower-than-usual defense. On the other hand, he had a severe back injury and played on it far too long, so there's no way he's going to be that bad again.
But Stevenson's role in next year's rotation is very tough to peg. Stevenson's old starting shooting guard spot is suddenly very crowded. Newcomers Mike Miller and Randy Foye both play the position, and youngsters Nick Young and Dominic McGuire both had their moments last year when Stevenson got injured. In addition, Flip Saunders has historically liked having big lineups, which opens up the possibility that Caron Butler may also be taking some shooting guard minutes. The organization still seems like it's sensitive to Stevenson's relative success as a starter in the past, so I suspect he'll be provided opportunities to retain his spot, but there are a lot of more productive players in the mix.
The previous regime loved Stevenson. They loved his supposed toughness, his rapport with Gilbert Arenas and his instinct to play through pain. They were willing to forgive his poor ball-handling, his shaky shot selection and his antics because they felt he provided a missing ingredient. He was defensive-minded even if he wasn't actually elite defensively. But will those same qualities make Stevenson a Flip Saunders favorite? Will he even be healthy enough to play? Jump to discuss.
Why he might play: Stevenson is a defensive-minded player, and there aren't too many defensive-minded players on the roster. He has the experience of playing with the other four starters already, so there would be less of an on-court chemistry adjustment needed. Flip has a history of sitting offensive-minded players and playing defensive-minded guys even if the offensive-minded player is more productive.
Why he might not play: There are a lot of bodies in front of him who fit Flip's offensive system better. Stevenson isn't very great coming off screens and was an extremely inefficient scorer until he remade himself into a three-point specialist in DC. Flip's off guards traditionally have better mid-range games and passing skills than a guy like Stevenson. His back injury also may not be fully healed by the start of the season. Remember, it took a long time for Darius Songaila to become fully healthy after he had back surgery.
My best guess: Stevenson was the past regime's favorite, but Flip will have too many better fits to choose from to play Stevenson much. I don't think he'll be fully recovered from his back injury as well. If Flip wants a more defensive-minded player, I think he'd choose McGuire over Stevenson because McGuire's length and help defense skills are better suited to his zoneish defensive system than Stevenson's ability to clamp on his man.
It's possible the Wizards play Stevenson a lot more early in the season in an attempt to showcase him for a trade. I suspect Ernie Grunfeld will want to clear his long-term salary off the books if he can. He already tried to include him in the Minnesota trade, after all.
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if deshawn returns to form
he could be an asset for the team – to trade if nothing else.
i’m hoping he can get back to his solid defense/knock down the open jumper role.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Sep 11, 2009 11:08 AM EDT reply actions
His back is fine
The procedure he underwent is a complete cure, and takes 12 weeks to recover from. There is risk of re-injury, but that’s a different matter. As of now, his back is healed.
The challenges with that procedure are conditioning and, to a lesser extent, strength and flexibility. It’s hard to stay in shape during that 12 weeks. (This was clearly the reason that Darius struggled when he returned.) The question comes down to whether or not he’s in shape.
Not arguing, just questioning
Why only consider him at off-guard? Why assume that Crittenton should get PG minutes but Stevenson shouldn’t? Because Crittenton looks smoother with the ball?
They are similar sizes, especially if Stevenson has shed the weight he put on with the back injury. Is Crittenton really better at defending quick guards? Will it matter if a zone-ish scheme is used?
Deshawn’s assist rate is somewhat lower, but his turnover rate is much lower. He’s a better outside shooter and better from the foul line.
Yes, Crittenton probably has more room for improvement at this point in his career (he is still quite young), but he would need to make that improvement to play at a level Deshawn has already played at. (Incidentally, in trying to look at players who had similar starts to their career to Crittenton, Stevenson pops up on a lot of those lists. So maybe Crittenton will end up growing into Stevenson? Of course, there is still time for him to increase his assists further and profile more like a traditional PG than Stevenson does.)
And, in terms of chemistry, who would make more sense playing with the second team? If they can manage Flip’s schemes equally well, I don’t see why it wouldn’t be Stevenson, especially if the bench is otherwise young.
I guess I’m saying I’d like to see Deshawn compete for minutes at backup PG as well as at SG.
For comparison
Here is Crittenton’s two seasons to date (age 21) vs Stevenson’s three seasons up to his age 21 season vs Foye’s rookie (age 23) season. http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/tiny.cgi?id=FxDmY Foye’s stat line actually looks the most point guard-like of the three.
And here is Critt and Foye last season vs Stevenson 07-08.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/tiny.cgi?id=y05GB
Unless Critt shows big improvement (which certainly could happen), I have a hard time with giving him court time ahead of Foye/Stevenson no matter what position we are talking about.
That would certainly be an different way to divide minutes
But Stevenson’s dribbling is suspect even though his turnovers were down this year (he wasn’t dribbling as much), and I suspect the coaching staff is more wed to orthodoxy than the EJ regime.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
IF Nick starts
Foye, DSteves, and M&M can split up the ball handling duties on the second unit.
I personally wan to see what Mike does next to GIl in the back court.
Who will be the starter at 2?
Given 4 of 5 starters are locks, I’ll put it as:
2:1 Foye
2:1 Miller
7:1 Stevenson
11:1 Young
8:1 the field
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