But if that’s the case, then we are paying way too much for redundant guards. One of Young/Foye won’t play at all. Foye can steal minutes at PG so Young is probably the odd man out.

EG needs to figure out the long term plan here. It’s a waste to keep a talented guard like Young so deep on the bench (not to mention a serviceable player like Stevenson). There needs to be a consolidation trade where we combine all these spare parts for one quality player.

I like this post. And, the more I think about it, the more I like the idea of one of them being the starting SG, with Miller getting just as many, if not more, minutes off the bench.

I’ve really struggled with the question of just how good Dom’s defense really is, but I’ll throw this out there: the team allowed more points per possession with him on the floor last year, than with him off. Make of that what you will—the team’s defensive on/off stats from last year are just perplexing. Young, Blatche, and Songaila come out far and away the best on the team by that measure. Looking at the 5-man groupings doesn’t much help explain it. Maybe they lucked out due to sample size issues. Maybe playing less than McGuire did with our starters and against opposing starters is the difference. Anyway, I haven’t yet found much evidence that supports what I’d like to think—that McGuire is an effective team defender.

Anyway, though, I really have a hard time putting McGuire ahead of a healthy Stevenson unless he finds something he can do well/consistently on offense. I would love to see McGuire with a Bowen-esque corner 3.

WTF? He’s the same size as Antawn and he doesn’t ever jack up a three. SF or PF, but not a wing. Why would anyone think of starting him ahead of Miller at that position anyway? Besides, who else is going to back up Caron at SF?

One of the amazing things with our roster is that I wouldn’t be surprised to see any particular player getting regular time (being one of the final 8). I don’t recall ever being able to say that before.

I’d love to hear people’s predictions on who the final 8 will be, although I really think as we’ve seen that it will be more like 9 than 8.

to get the players motivated. If everyone’s going to get a shot to play just so, where’s the motivation? This way, players know that they have to compete if they want playing time.

That being said, Dom should get minutes because if nothing else he’s proven to be one of the team’s better defenders.

"He’s a multi-dimensional player, I think he can almost play four positions. We haven’t tried to play him at the 1, but he has a great…very good ball-handling skills for a player of his size. Today (Saturday) we used him as 3, the 4 and the 2. So actually he learned three spots today, so he’ll have a lot of pressure during this camp in terms of understanding everything we’re doing."

if this holds true, McGuire will definitely crack the rotation

You can throw McGuire into so many different Wizards lineups b/c he is so versatile. Assuming he doesn’t start he’ll be in lineups like..
C-Blatche
PF-Jamison
SF-McGuire
SG-Miller
PG-Arenas
Any lineup without Haywood is gonna need a good rebounding SF
C-Haywood
PF-McGuire
SF-Butler
SG-Foye
PG-Arenas
Any combination of scoring wings with McGuire being a good passer and not taking the shots. He’s gonna be played a good amount of minutes imo because he brings more to the table then Young and McGee right now. Young might be the better player overall because of his offense, but with the other weapons on the team someone has to defer. As long as the top 8 players doesn’t include Stevenson or Oberto I’m happy. Nothing against them, but we have to continue to develop the young guys while getting the wins.

Gil, Caron, Jamison, Haywood, Miller, Foye, Stevenson, Blatche. And we obviously will need someone else to fill minutes so when it comes down to it: Young vs. Mcguire, i choose Mcguire.

but I’ll recap:

I’m not sure that [Dom will] be ruled out in Flip’s schemes this year. We have a ton of scorers, points at all positions to satisfy Flip’s offensive playbook. What we lack is the lead guy in his match-up zone. The Tayshuan Prince player who can be used to slowdown and neutralize whatever opposing player has the hot hand, the guy who can stall the attack and force the initial pass-off allowing the triangle to flatten.

This a key feature of Flip’s defense, having a guy equally competent and comfortable in man or zone, who can effectively blur the lines between the two with his length and athleticism. Recall Flip’s comment that 80% of that fat playbook he carries is actually defense, then ask who you plan to plug in to captain that D late in a game when stops are more important than scoring.

Consider also that Flip loves to run his guards past screens, etc. But which players on our squad are best suited to set a living wall? Haywood certainly, Oberto yes. But Jamison? Caron maybe. But not so much Mike Miller. McGee doesn’t set a narrow enough screen to be useful. A guy like Dom seems to have the aptitude to pick up these wrinkles quickly.

If I’m eyeballing it from here, when I’m guessing what player may lose minutes compared to year’s past I’d suspect that our Capitawn’s 40-per might be the likeliest target. Dray may siphon some, bumping Tawn to a few minutes at SF, but I suspect it’s not a forgone conclusion that Dom won’t find minutes in a defensive configuration. Remember the PF in Flip’s zone is responsible for guarding half the paint. I’d bet Jamison gets bumped to more minutes at SF with Dray in the frontcourt, provided Dray proves more consistently reliable. Fact is Jamison at PF really strains the defense, whereas Jamison at SF can be shaded and protected somewhat. Dom’s shortfall (offense) is a team strength at other positions, but what he does well (versatile inside-outside defense) is not replicated elsewhere. A smart coach will find a use for him.

also:

There’s a log-jam which ever way we slice it. I see Foye getting minutes behind a re-developing Gil, and Nick earning minutes by merit or not at all. I fully expect Miller will start the season at 2-guard, not terribly concerned about his minutes.

What I don’t see is 2 of the three keystone players who can run the Zone system. And, taking Kanye’s point, if you look at Flip’s track record he’s always found somebody who can fit that defensive system even if he has to bump a Szerbiak to the bench to do it.

Maybe I should bump the Coaching thread requesting line-ups that have the aptitude to run both the match-up Zone and the pick-and-screen heavy Hawk offense.

For best defense you need one long multipurpose perimeter defender, one intimidating paint presence, one positional rebounder who can hold their ground seal the paint underneath. If Both your frontcourt players have components of intimidation/rebounding you’re good. Right now who is the ‘point’ man in the zone? Who picks up the best perimeter guy at the top of the key? Who blocks out and disallows 2nd chance points (a major point of emphasis in Flip’s system).

If the Wiz are getting blown up by guys getting loose in the paint, and Jamison is continuing to collect rebounds only in open space, not sealing his man out, I suspect Flip may find a few minutes more inside for someone else. Maybe ask the FO to look around (Elton Brand swap?). Else he’ll only hope Blatche can step up. Or try Dom in late game defense situations. Jamison’s points seem more replaceable this year than ever in the past. May begin his elder years bench transition.

I’d if they swap Jams this year it might jeopardize Haywood’s re-sign. Maybe not. But if Jamison stays the rest of his contract, there’s no way he’ll stay in that starting role and still satisfy Flip. Not unless his game somehow becomes a little more physical on defense. Just a little. And offensively he doesn’t do enough of the rest of what Flip likes best. He’s unpredictable, both good and bad.

Still, if Dom plays somewhat less this year and it drives down his re-sign price, dandy. Maybe then we keep him as a low-cost roleplayer on a discount, while he develops a useful role. Never hurts to have on your bench a role-playing defense/hustle guy who doesn’t need points to play well. Especially if they’re still young enough to improve.