(1) I’m wondering whether Caron’s high FGA games tend to correlate to/overlap with other categories of games that could better explain winning. In particular, I wonder whether Caron might be hitting those shot levels in games where the Wizards were playing at a faster pace and whether the Wiz have won more fast-paced games.

This reminds me of that quote from gilbert way back when about how he couldn’t be a ball hog bc others on the team were getting good volumes of shots/points as well, thanks to pushing the ball.

(2) Based on observation (not stats), I’d say I have an easier time thinking of games where it felt like Caron was forcing shots than where he was passing on too many. His mid-range-with-hand-in-the-face jumper goes for an ok percentage, so I don’t really have a problem with it. I agree with Prada that Caron’s very low usage games are probably rarely good things, but I have a hard time getting my mind around Caron as a consistently high usage player.

The data shows a very small change in winning percentage, but it’s so small that it may simply be random. Plus there’s no look at what happens to Butler’s efficiency or the team’s efficiency when he shoots more. From the data presented in this article, it’s tough to draw any conclusions. I don’t think it means anything.

hmmm….. Stats….. and more stats…
Conclusions garnered from stats…. alternate explanations for the conclusions drawn from stats…. alternates to the alternates drawn from stats.

Randy Foye started shooting more when McHale took over the in Minnesota. As he shot more shots, his shooting percentage also went up…

Here’s my thoughts:
Arenas needs to take more shots – link
Butler needs to take more shots – link
Mike Miller needs to take more shots – link
Nick Young needs to take more shots – link
Randy Foye needs to take more shots – link

’ (tongue in cheek key turned on)
The solution? Roadrunner basketball…. Play at the fastest possible pace…. Run, take quick shots, and run some more… That will limit Jamison’s shots… limit Haywood’s shots…. limit Oberto’s shots…. and increase shots for Foye, Miller, Arenas, Young and Butler. (and JaVale McGee, and Andray Blatche, and Dominic McGuire as well)
’ (tongue in cheek key turned off)

…because there really isn’t a correlation at all between how many shots one player takes and overall team winning. There are too many other factors at play. There need to be a series of connections established to factors that we know are meaningful before we can conclude that Butler should take more shots to help the team win.

All we have here are a couple of facts — Butler takes X number of shots and the team has performance Y. But there’s no established relationship between the two stats, no coherent theory for why they’re related, and no examination of how the data are related. It just doesn’t mean much of anything.

It reminds me a bit of the stuff being bandied about that the Lakers win more when Kobe shoots less.

But a close examination found that “relationship” to be false. That Kobe shot less when the Lakers faced weaker opponents. When the Lakers played tougher opponents, he shot more because his team needed him to shoot more. And the data actually showed that he improved his team’s chances of winning those tougher games.

This info is sorta interesting, but there’s a TON more research and analysis to be done before it’s meaningful.

…There’s still utility in looking at what these guys have done in the past because performance from NBA players tends to be pretty consistent. It’s still very useful to do what Dean Oliver calls “skills curves,” which are the same sort of thing bwood is doing. Dean uses offensive rating, which is a more comprehensive efficiency measure, but there’s still good utility in doing what bwood is doing. Get enough of these “skills curves” done and then you can start looking at ways to optimize possession distribution.

and a dumb analysis of a statistic. If you look at the historical stats for all teams, the teams with highest shooting %’s almost always win. negating the effect of turnovers of course. They need to get the ball to the Bigs down low and drive the lane and not jack up so many jumpers.

But it is something we already know, that this team needs to have balance between the big 3. Doesn’t this offense work best when the big 3 take between 50-60 shots with a fairly even distribution between the 3. Given the pace we hope to play at shouldn’t that leave enough shots for Haywood/Oberto, Foye/Miller?

The last thing I want is Caron taking more jump shots. He’s been taking WAY too many. I’d love to see Caron take more shots, assuming they’re GOOD, relatively higher percentage shots… He needs to take it to the hole more, but can he?

I agree Jamison should get less shots. and he WILL, given Arenas is back, and we have Miller AND Foye on the team now. Jamison should also seek higher percentage shots.

I can’t argue with the stats, but I just don’t like the idea of Butler taking 20 shots a game. I’ve seen too many jump-shooting teams blow it.