Fabricio Oberto will be helpful ... but let's be careful about giving him too many chances
by Mike Prada on Aug 13, 2009 1:09 AM EDT
in Player Analysis
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Print(Below the jump, full audio from today's press conference, courtesy of friend of the site Rashad Mobley. If you aren't reading Rashad's stuff on Hoops Addict, please start. -Mike).
Press conferences announcing the signing of a new player tend to be full of over the top language and celebratory gestures. Today's press conference announcing the signing of Fabricio Oberto didn't appear to be any different.
Ernie Grunfeld began matters thustly:
We still felt like we still needed one piece to our puzzle, which was a veteran big man, someone who has a lot of playoff experience, someone who's willing to sacrifice his own game for the benefit of the team, and someone who's able to give good depth at the center and power forward position, and we're here to introduce that player today, and his name is Fabricio Oberto."
Flip Saunders: "He’s a player that has a very high basketball IQ, and the things we like to do both offensively and defensively– he’ll be able to help us."
So, grain of salt pounded.
Still, I've got a sinking feeling that Oberto's going to end up getting a ton of minutes this year. Scan Flip's recent teams, and you don't see too many rangy bigs like Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee getting minutes. More often, it's the solid types -- the Joe Smiths, Rasho Nesterovics, Antonio McDyesses, Ervin Johnsons and Theo Ratliffs -- that take the minutes. This is also a front office with a win-now mentality, and I'm not sure how much patience they'll have for the inevitable ups and downs you'll see from Blatche and McGee.
Having no patience would be a mistake. Sure, Oberto can help in the playoffs because he's been through the wars, but the Wizards need Blatche and McGee to develop, both for now and the long-term health of the franchise. Blatche and McGee possess more raw talent than seven Obertos combined. The more chance they get to cultivate that talent, the better. The Wizards will reap the benefits of their talents down the road if Flip allows them game opportunities to improve early on.
Yes, even if it means sacrificing a few games early on. And if Oberto doesn't like it? He's a pro, and less time will be better for his body in the long run anyway.
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Question
Scan Flip’s recent teams, and you don’t see too many rangy bigs like Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee getting minutes.
What about Garnett and Wallace? Or are you just referring to centers? Or bench players?
Why the rush with McGee?
If he becomes a regular rotation player this year, next year or the year after, what’s the hurry? If the franchise doesn’t think he’s ready yet, what’s the diff? He’ll be around for a long time and his body is still developing.
Personally I don’t want to sacrifice games. Every single win will be very important come playoff seeding time.
Now that Haywood's back...
I agree. But when Etan and Songaila were the starting centers, I was in the “play the kids” camp. Blatche though is a different story. I hope/expect him to be a solid 20-25 minute contributor off of the bench and don’t want to see Oberto get his minutes barring some serious misplay by Andray.
Why McGee or Blatche
McGee and Blatche should get as much opportunity to earn regular minutes as possible. They both have earned it as far as I’m concerned. Blatche for being the best backup big on the team, and McGee for his standout summer in summer league and during the U.S. national team camp, as well as his sky is the limit potential.
This team has a lot of talent but if they want to compete to be the Top Dog in the East (this year!), they’ll need at least a player or two to reach new levels of performance. Blatche and McGee I’d argue are the two players most capable of doing that. They really need a standout big coming off the bench, and as much as I like the Oberto pickup, I don’t see him being that player. A good role player that you can count on to do certain things, but not one with any game-changing ability.
Any of these players should have to earn their minutes, but the Wizards really need either Blatche or McGee to come into their own this season.
by Johnnie Futbol on Aug 13, 2009 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Johnnie, I think you're changing the debate
The question is not whether we should hold McGee and Blatche down. The way I saw it the post was about giving them minutes NOW even if it costs us games. Of course if Blatche and/or McGee EARN minutes by playing well then they should get them. But the concept that we should play them over Oberto at this point even if Oberto is outplaying them…well that I just strongly disagree with.
The more chance they get to cultivate that talent, the better. The Wizards will reap the benefits of their talents down the road if Flip allows them game opportunities to improve early on. Yes, even if it means sacrificing a few games early on.
I’d just rather see McGee become a rotation player a year or two later rather than give away games at this point. He’s got a lot of years in front of him. I don’t see the rush.
a season lasts 82 games and hopefully playoffs follow
I’m not so sure it’s going to be so black and white during training camp or early in the season which player stands out as the better big man off the bench (i.e. which player will help the team win more games). Oberto will clearly have some advantages over Blatche or McGee, but he’ll certainly have his weak points as well.
Maybe over the first half of the season, Oberto’s experience will be enough to give the Wizards an extra win or two? But what about the rest of the season or the playoffs? What if Blatche or McGee is given one of those 8 man rotation spots over Oberto (we know one of the 3 will be in there). Do they stand to improve more with that additional season of experience, where they’re given regular minutes and are expected to perform at a higher level? Under those circumstances, by the end of the season, one of those two could potentially be head and shoulders above Oberto. In that case it is black & white.
With Oberto we know what we’re getting. With Blatche or McGee we don’t – but the ceiling is higher. That’s my assumption at least. Perhaps Oberto is an excellent 1st PF/C off the bench for this team. In that case, yeah absolutely give him that role. But otherwise, in the long run the potential number of games the Wizards can win this season and in the playoffs is higher with Blatche or McGee getting that role. That doesn’t make it a given – but because this team doesn’t have a Garnett, James or Bryant, and because they’re in a win-now mode, they need to find ways to maximize their potential. Thus Blatche and McGee should absolutely be given the chance to earn regular rotation minutes above Oberto.
by Johnnie Futbol on Aug 13, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
I thought McGee should have gotten more minutes on the team last season because the club was clearly going nowhere at the time … but if the team is harbouring idea’s of contending for a title … then the best players should be getting the minutes.
No need to rush him, play him when he’s ready.
hmm
Having no patience would be a mistake. Sure, Oberto can help in the playoffs because he’s been through the wars, but the Wizards need Blatche and McGee to develop, both for now and the long-term health of the franchise. Blatche and McGee possess more raw talent than seven Obertos combined. The more chance they get to cultivate that talent, the better. The Wizards will reap the benefits of their talents down the road if Flip allows them game opportunities to improve early on.
Yes, even if it means sacrificing a few games early on. And if Oberto doesn’t like it? He’s a pro, and less time will be better for his body in the long run anyway.
well, i think that Oberto realizes the situation here in dc that they are trying to develop the young guys in blatche and mcgee (i think more blatche than mcgee though at the moment).
in the article grunfield says: “someone who’s willing to sacrifice his own game for the benefit of the team”. perhaps that means someone who’s willing to lose some minutes?
oberto also says himself: “If I have to play defense and not take a shot for 10 games, I’ll do it.” and also: ‘If you want me to guard 3, 4 or 5, just tell me and I’ll find a way to do it.’"
so i think that whether or not oberto actually does get a lot of minutes, oberto is willing to maybe lose some of his minutes and also have others get the points rather than he.
and didn’t grunfield and saunders say before in the past that they needed someone in the frontcourt to be a 4-5 min man doing the litle important stuff, like doing the rebounds and fouls?
i don’t know, this is just my opinion..
Perhaps
Then again, Oberto’s talked at length about how he wanted to go somewhere he could play, and that’s why he chose the Wizards.
I also think when he talks about “sacrificing his game,” it means not scoring, not not playing.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Question...
…Not having looked at Flip’s rosters through the years, who are the Blatche/McGee-like players he’s left on the bench in favor of “the Joe Smiths, Rasho Nesterovics, Antonio McDyesses, Ervin Johnsons and Theo Ratliffs”?
by TheSecretWeapon on Aug 13, 2009 10:02 AM EDT reply actions
I'd say mostly that he hasn't had too many
And I’d argue that’s in part because he’s giving input that he prefers the solid, no-mistake big. Then again, not having any first-round choices in Minnesota adds a ton of selection bias to the table.
But off the top of my head, there are guys out there like Amir Johnson, Michael Olowokandi, Ndudi Edi and Loren Woods who didn’t play much under Flip. Certainly, lots of those guys sucked, but they still didn’t get too many chances to prove themselves. Even Jason Maxiell could have played more than he did.
I guess that I should rephrase “rangy” to mean more that “bigs who may have growing pains to work through.”
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
In my mind Oberto is as big of a question mark as McGee or Blatche. I’d like to see atleast one of the youngins get alot of minutes off the bench and Oberto be a situational guy who plays 10-12 against Orlando and Cleveland and then rides the pine against teams like Toronto and Chicago. Also I’m in the “let the young guys develop even if it costs us a game or 3 in the regular season” camp. I don’t see us as a serious contender unless 1-2 of the young guys(NY, Blatche, McGee, Critt) really come into their own. Otherwise our veteran core(Big 3, haywood, foye, Miller, Oberto) seems to me a step below teams like Orlando and Boston. Injuries could shake the playoff picture up though so who knows.
A safety net
Oberto should be utilized as a safety net. Blatche and McGee should be the first bigs off the bench and they should be given every opportunity to develop through the first 60 or so games of the season. Oberto should be a practice player who can be occassionally called upon when Blatche or McGee are rattled and just need a moment to regroup. That’s it.
If, after 60 or so games, it appears that Blatche or McGee won’t be able to “turn the corner” this year, then Oberto should be phased into the regular rotation in time for the playoffs.
If the young guys cost the Wizards a game or two early in the season, by the second half, hopefully they will have developed enough confidence to be winning some games for them as well….
There are going to be the occasional game, especially late in the year when Jamison is beat down and having a terrible shooting night, or Haywood is nicked with a minor injury – when one of those two guys could step up and have a tremendous game to help the Wizards win a game….. or two…. or three…
I just don’t see giving he young bigs consistent minutes early in the year as a negative only effect …. there should be a balancing or even positive effect later on….
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
I also wouldn’t mind seeing Oberto get additional minutes against Howard & O’Neil.
by Johnnie Futbol on Aug 13, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Let's give minutes to whomever is making the best overall contribution to the team
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.
Think long term
I’m willing to sacrifice a few wins in the regular season if it means that we’re a better team in the playoffs. McGee and Blatche need opportunities even if they make frequent mistakes (as long as they’re at least working hard).
Joe Smiths, Rasho Nesterovics, Antonio McDyesses, Ervin Johnsons and Theo Ratliffs
“Scan Flip’s recent teams, and you don’t see too many rangy bigs like Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee getting minutes. More often, it’s the solid types — the Joe Smiths, Rasho Nesterovics, Antonio McDyesses, Ervin Johnsons and Theo Ratliffs — that take the minutes. This is also a front office with a win-now mentality, and I’m not sure how much patience they’ll have for the inevitable ups and downs you’ll see from Blatche and McGee. "
- Rasho Neserovic received 20+ minutes per game when he was in his second season. I would consider Rasho long at 7 feet.
- Theo Ratliff barely played under Flip Saunders when he was on the Detroit Pistons
- Can you really criticize Flip for giving major minutes to Joe Smith; especially since he was in his prime
I would consider all the above more rangy like McGee and Blatche than Oberto, especially since they are all better shot blockers.
Rasho's not rangy like Dray or JaVale
He’s thick. He can’t jump like JaVale and doesn’t have the skills of Blatche, but he was solid. A load. Whatever you want to call it. We obviously have different definitions of “rangy.”
-Fair point on Theo, but Theo did play over Amir Johnson down the stretch and in the playoffs.
-I’m not criticizing Flip for giving anyone minutes, just saying those are the types of bigs he prefers. Smith averages less than a block a game for his career, so I’m not sure where you get the idea that he’s a shot blocker.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Rasho Neserovic had already played 3 years professionally in Serbia.
Ratliff was waived by the Timberwolves,and he rejoined the Pistons on March 4, and played an average of 14 minutes in every game for the rest of the season (including 12 Playoff games)….
I think that Mike is simply trying to show that it might be “normal” Flip Saunders behavior to play a veteran, no-mistake big, over a more talented but raw project.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
So – Ratliff joined the Pistons on March 4th….
Up until then, Amir Johnson was averaging around 15.2 minutes a game in February… down to 12 minutes a game in March … down to 5 minutes a game in the Playoffs (with 9 dnp’s and 2 games with only 1 minute of play each )
Meanwhile, Ratliff was playing around 14 minutes a game in March… and played an average of 11 minutes a game in the Playoffs.
Clearly, Flip was more comfortable playing Ratliff down the stretch, and into the Playoffs than the more talented, but younger and less experienced Amir Johnson..
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
And Blatche has played 3 years in the NBA up to this point (not including his rookie year when he was shot). So one would expect Blatche to have a bigger role than Oberto. Are you telling me that Blatche is a “steady” player too? Sorry but Rasho and Joe Smith are not in the same category as 30+ Ratliff and Johnson.
What?
-Comparing Blatche, a raw high school guy who is 22, to Nesterovic, who played three years professionally in Europe, is silly.
-Rook didn’t say Blatche was steady
-The “categories” set aren’t with the same criteria you think they are. This ain’t about ability.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I expect Flip Saunders to use Andray Blatche as the first big off the bench and Fabricio Oberto as the second big off the bench. I’d expect to see both guys getting regular rotation minutes, with Blatche getting a fair bit more than Oberto. Then McGee as the insurance player as the fifth big, filling in when needed.
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