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Flexibility for later

There are few buzzwords that annoy me more in sports than "flexibility."  Taken literally, it means providing yourselves, as a sports team, the chance to improve your roster later on even while following the parameters of the salary cap.  Taken figuratively, it can be a cynic's way of attacking a team.  Having lots of flexibility could be another way of saying a team never takes a chance to improve its roster.  Having no flexibility could be another way of saying a team is stuck being mediocre with no prospect of improving.

We've heard the latter criticism with the Wizards since the day Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison re-signed.  We're now hearing a lot about how the Wizards have "created" flexibility by trading some deadweight, along with the fifth pick, for Randy Foye and Mike Miller.  It's enough to make me be the first kind of cynic even though I've spent the past year shooting down the second kind of cynics.  The fair question to ask here is, what does the "flexibility" gained from the Foye/Miller trade (as well as selling the second-round pick for 2.5 million) actually do to help us long-term?  It's true, we now have more money to re-sign Brendan Haywood, but that just keeps the status quo when we should get better.

However, there's one angle that hasn't been considered, one that doclinkin hinted at a bit in the last thread but never came out and said. 

What if the Wizards really can't pay a large luxury tax bill this year, but will be more capable next year?  Doesn't that flexibility in the form of better expiring contracts and incremental talent improvement make a major difference if that is the case?

What am I trying to say here?  Let's be honest, last year was not a very good year for the Wizards' bottom line.  For the third straight year, the Wizards' average home attendance dropped.  The Wizards drew just 16,612 fans per game last year, good for 21st in the league.  That's over 2,000 fans lower than the Wizards had two years ago, when Gilbert Arenas was last healthy.  Those numbers are also just the number of tickets that were sold, and doesn't include the myriad tickets that were bought even though the buyer never showed up to the game.  I think it's also pretty safe to say that endorsement sales were way down last year.  In addition, while Abe Pollin reportedly didn't lose too much from the economy tanking, it's a pretty good guess that Abe's personal wealth has been in better shape before.

In light of all that, it may not be the best time for the Wizards to charge zillions of dollars over the luxury tax.  However, a new year, hopefully with a new clean bill of health, brings a lot of money in.  Attendance will go up.  Endorsement sales will go back to their normal levels, particularly if when Gilbert Arenas returns to take the NBA by storm.  Home playoff games, hopefully for more than just one round, will result.  More money will come in.  More windfall for making the big move to go over the tax will result. 

The great news there is that, with our recent moves, we're pretty well-positioned to take on more salary when we can.  Our recent trade for Randy Foye and Mike Miller brought in two expiring contracts with much more value than the ones that were swapped out.  We're still possessing some very promising youngsters, only now it's with more expiring deals with better players attached to them.  Then, in the offseason, perhaps the organization will pay whatever necessary to keep Brendan Haywood and whoever remains of Foye/Miller, even if it means going way over the tax to do it. 

It's a silver lining of sorts.  The Wizards still missed an opportunity to make a major move for long-term salary when several players were available for peanuts on draft day.  They still need to make a move to unbalance their roster, and they still made a terribly stupid decision to sell a pick that could have been DeJuan Blair

But at the very least, they have some roster and payroll "flexibility" that actually means something.

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I like Blair

But I have a feeling that we didn’t pick him because we were planning on making a trade later on that would bring us a big man, allowing us to swap salaries with another team, rather than just take on another (admittedly small) contract.

by pantslessyoda1 on Jul 5, 2009 10:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

again

the thing with Blair is, we wouldn’t need someone else’s cooperation to get him (like in a trade), we wouldn’t need his approval (like in free agency), and he would come very cheap. Furthermore, it isn’t just one big man we need. We need two, one for each big spot. Granted, this is mainly for fouls, but who better to take up the 12th spot than a 2nd round flyer?

by CJHutch on Jul 5, 2009 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Im assuming everyone here

saw Blair play in colleg and is not just money balling his stats. The Big East Hell college basketball in general had a severe lack of big men. Thebeet not included but then again he is not much to write home about either. Olawakandi anyone? I mean look at the draft could it have been any more guard heavy. He played for a team and conference that allowed him to showcase his skills of hard-nosed basketball in earnest. Im sorry I cant see Blair as the second coming of Paul Milsap. Everyone talks about his wingspan but what about the fact that he cant jump to save his life. The NBA is played above the rim. Doesn’t Blair remind you of another wide, long armed local product. Lonny Baxter. He dominated in college just like Blair but his complete lack of height and hops completely killed his game at the pro level. His value was inflated by the stat-heads of ESPN and various mock-draft websites. He is a project and nothing more. A reach even at where the spurs took him.

by ccrun1800 on Jul 5, 2009 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So what's the difference between Blair and Paul Millsap again?

Because the WAC is full of top-quality big men.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jul 5, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I only made that comparison

because they both led college basketball in rebounding when they were drafted. The main point which im guessing you just chose to skip over was that Blair is a project. We can pick through the draft every year and find a plethora of under-sized college players that failed at the next level. You can even fin a couple more that came good but took some time to develop. How many can you find that came right out the box to contribute and were under-sized at there position. Its not many that im pretty sure is something we can agree too.

by ccrun1800 on Jul 5, 2009 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't ever

remember reading on here where Blair was gonna be a major contributor. I think the point being made (at least in my view), is that he’s no worse than the bargain basement 12th man we’ll probably end up with. But the difference between Blair and a Mikki Moore or Ruffin is that you already know their ceiling.

by CJHutch on Jul 5, 2009 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As a secound round pick

He is not even guaranteed to make the team. Which at that point would put Micael Ruffins contribution however crappy and slight above Blairs.

by ccrun1800 on Jul 5, 2009 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

well

we’ll see. Obviously at this point it’s all conjecture, but my feelings are that Blair would make the team over Ruffin. The best way to tell is if he makes it on San Antonio’s roster. I think it’s would be suffice to say should he make their team, he would’ve made ours.

by CJHutch on Jul 5, 2009 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I Guess if this season goes poorly

 I can all ready see Blair being used as some weird rallying cry as we all bemoan our sour luck for another season. I ask this from the Blair backers, promise me that it will be something witty and well thought out.

by ccrun1800 on Jul 5, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the only way

I will stay on the Blair topic during the season is if he makes noise during the regular season. Then I will bring it up no matter what our situation. I will also gladly eat crow if he turns out to be a bust.

by CJHutch on Jul 5, 2009 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Apparently I need to elaborate my sarcastic pithy comment
The Big East Hell college basketball in general had a severe lack of big men. Thebeet not included but then again he is not much to write home about either.

He played for a team and conference that allowed him to showcase his skills of hard-nosed basketball in earnest. Im sorry I cant see Blair as the second coming of Paul Milsap

You argue on one hand that the Big East had no quality big men (ignoring the second pick in the NBA draft and the best defensive big man in college basketball by calling him an “Olowokandi”), then throw out Paul Millsap’s name, even though he played in an absolutely pitiful conference with no big men period.

As to the major point:


Everyone talks about his wingspan but what about the fact that he cant jump to save his life. The NBA is played above the rim.

You’re right. Leon Powe, Big Baby Davis, Brad Miller, Ronny Turiaf, Carl Landry, Chuck Hayes, Luis Scola, Kevin Love, Reggie Evans, Joel Pryzbilla, Matt Bonner, Kurt Thomas, Nick Collison, Mehmet Okur and Millsap are screwed then. Clearly, they can’t play, because the game is played above the rim.

Doesn’t Blair remind you of another wide, long armed local product. Lonny Baxter.

Um, no. Baxter couldn’t rebound and defend like Blair.


His value was inflated by the stat-heads of ESPN and various mock-draft websites. He is a project and nothing more. A reach even at where the spurs took him.

You’re right. Christian Eyenga, DeMarre Carroll, Rodrigue Beaubois, BJ Mullens, Omri Casspi, Victor Claver, Austin Daye, those guys are all ready to play right now. Because clearly, rebounding never translates to the next level.

(In case you were wondering, the last paragraph was sarcasm).

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jul 5, 2009 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think I get it.

I know points have to be made and so certain details get glossed over. This is definitely going to be a an agree to disagree but I just want to make sure my point was clearly understood. I am quite aware that undersized and/or midly non-athletic big men have made it in the NBA. I was proposing the question of HOW MANY MORE have not made it. The number is severely disproportionate at the least. I guess I could name about 30 names and prove my point via volume but you see what I am getting it. He is a reach and a project. Grunfield’s failure to pick him in the second round is the least of our worries when it comes to us hopefully dominating the Eastern Conference this year.

by ccrun1800 on Jul 5, 2009 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

how about

You’re right. Leon Powe, Big Baby Davis, Brad Miller, Ronny Turiaf, Carl Landry, Chuck Hayes, Luis Scola, Kevin Love, Reggie Evans, Joel Pryzbilla, Matt Bonner, Kurt Thomas, Nick Collison, Mehmet Okur and Millsap are screwed then. Clearly, they can’t play, because the game is played above the rim.

Elton Brand and our own Antawn Jamison. Neither are overly long and athletic, but both are extremely productive.

by CJHutch on Jul 5, 2009 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pretty sure I recall

everyone on this board was excited about Joey Dorsey too…

I like DJ Blair fine. But not at 2.5 million plus double his cost. And as far as defense, he’ll be a hack factory in the NBA. Plus, coming off the bench with questionable minutes, and bionic knees, you’d have to worry about his potential to balloon, Sweetney style. He was playing limited minutes due to stamina at the NCAA level. He may hit that rookie wall like a Semi running into a Jersey barrier.

The real worry, he lost so much weight so quickly, that’s rarely a good sign, that kind of weight loss tends not to last. And if he’s less productive in the NBA, can’t shove folks around as easily, he may actually blame the lesser weight.

That said San Antonio is an ideal fit for him. He’ll produce for them better than he would anywhere else. I’m just saying, here, as in most teams there are reasonable concerns. Especially given the spotty history of our medical staff…

by doclinkin on Jul 6, 2009 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bill Walker?

There were some upset folks after that went down last year. Hasn’t exactly come back to haunt us. He can’t even get off the bench. I’d rather have Ruffin.

by MR on Jul 6, 2009 7:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

Doc – you’re right… The Wizards should never look at a young prospect that might , ….

eat himself out of the league
only play limited minutes his Rookie year due to “stamina”
hit the “rookie wall”
have a medical issue some time in their career
blame other “issues” for his failures

Besides , why would the Wizards want to pay the best rebounder in the NCAA in the last 10 years a huge contract, like the whopping NBA minimum contract of $457,588, when they can pick up Jason Collins or Jamal Magloire for the Veteran Minimum of $1.3 Million ?

Yeah – I’d rather pay the Luxury Tax on $1.3 Million for Jamal Magloire… !!!!

I mean, it’s not like either of those two guys (Collins or Magloire) have ever had weight problems, injury issues, stamina problems, or blamed other “issues” for their failures.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Jul 6, 2009 8:40 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

More on Blair

Ok – you got me riled up…..

Chad Ford, who actually saw Blair work out, said he was really impressive.

He has lost about 15 pounds during the first two weeks of training. His physique is much more chiseled. And most importantly, his athleticism has improved greatly because he has lost that weight and improved his conditioning.

Blair looked much quicker and more explosive than he looked at Pittsburgh. His quickness and leaping ability were impressive for someone his size. He went as hard as anyone in the gym that day and didn’t slow down toward the end.

Sure doesn’t sound like a guy that will play “below the rim”… And before you start with "that kind of weight loss tends not to last. " or “can’t shove folks around as easily” – - – Those sentiments are actually probably true about the general population, but not about elite athletes. The opposite is usually true.. once they lose the weight – it stays off.

Besides, it’s clear that he (Blair) has made a life change – improving his diet….. hitting the weight room (apparently for the first time in his career – which should be scary to his opponents).

According to this article

[He’s] Lost 30 pounds… Blair said: “It’s going well. I’m losing weight and I’m changing my body. I feel really good. I took off a lot of fat and put on muscle. Now I’m quicker and lighter.”

More muscle….less fat. I doubt he’ll have any trouble “shoving folks around” in the paint.

According to John Gasaway, Basketball Prospectus, Blair didn’t just dominate College basketball in the rebounding department, he outrebounded many TEAMS (Nebraska, Samford, etc…) by himself.

Yes, DeJuan Blair was that good. Playing in the best conference in the country — the tournament settled that, didn’t it? — against some of the best big men in the country, week-in, week-out, DeJuan Blair didn’t just rebound well. He rebounded at a level unseen in the past 10 years, and maybe longer. We’re not sure, because the relevant statistics don’t date accordingly. DeJuan Blair could be the best offensive rebounder of the last 20 years. He’s certainly in the conversation.

A lot of people (like you) will look at DeJuan Blair and see Tractor Traylor. Another big body with talent. You think that, like Traylor, Blair will eat himself out of the league. I look at him and see a taller Charles Barkley.

Well thanks to 29 General Managers telling him “no thanks” 36 times , DeJuan Blair now has plenty of incentive to show those teams what they missed. Those 29 other GM’s have put the “Arenas fire” into Blair – and I for one hope he sticks it to them.

My nightmare scenario, and the ultimate irony would be: Three years from now, The Wizards, after limping around for years without a physical presence in the post, are in a Free Agency bidding war for the best young defender and rebounder in the League – DeJuan Blair.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Jul 6, 2009 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

To Be Fair

Rook, you are ignoring doc’s biggest point:

I like DJ Blair fine. But not at 2.5 million plus double his cost.

Jamal Magloire, if he is signed, would cost about $1.8 million less than selling the pick instead of drafing Blair. I hate it because of it smacks of cheapness, now that I know Ernie isn’t going after anyone clearly better. But it still does make financial sense, as much as I hate to admit it.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jul 6, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you count the 2.5 million they got for selling the pick then yes

But wouldn’t Blair cost only 1.4 million by himself (700K salary + 700K lux tax). I’d rather pay that then 2.6 for Magloire (1.3 salary + 1.3 lux tax).

"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck

by George Templeton on Jul 6, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yep

Why wouldn’t you count that? That is the only reason you sell picks – the money.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jul 6, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

contract

I loved Lonnie Baxter, but he was not exactly dominant. I actually played with him one time. Sure, he was the biggest guy on the court and therefor head and shoulders (literally and figuratively) above the rest of us, but he wasn’t exactly overwhelming. I have played with a few other NBA players, and he doesn’t really stack up. Sorry if I’m upsetting any diehard UMD fans, just stating my observations.

by CJHutch on Jul 5, 2009 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think the assumption is that rebounding is the statistic that best transfers from college to pro. And he is a $700k per yr (1st yr) big bodied, heavy banging rebounder. I hope/didn’t think people did not expect much more. We could use that at that price.

by les boulez bomber on Jul 6, 2009 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Only in Salary cap Sports

Does the term mentioned above come into play. Its an evil we have to deal with for our socialist structure of sports in America can exist and thrive. This word will always be in our lexicon as NBA fans unless they do away with the cap when at that point we can completely count the wizards out every year since we dont have that money bags owner that other teams are blessed/cursed with.

by ccrun1800 on Jul 5, 2009 10:28 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

No the cap is cool

Its the only thing that keeps the wizards competitive. I was just ruminating on the fact that in our capitalist society our sports do a very poor job of reflecting one of our core American beliefs. I’m sorry if I did a poor job of conveying that.

by ccrun1800 on Jul 5, 2009 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Flexibility for later

was the term you used to title your post. It was this term that ccrun was speaking of when ruminating over the salary cap. Makes sense to me as an on-topic comment, although I disagree with his view on the salary cap.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jul 6, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I know

He’s entitled and his comment is on topic, I guess. That just wasn’t the direction I was going in with this post by any means. I didn’t write it to illicit philosophical responses about how our sporting values jive with our country’s values.

Again, to each his own though. It just seems like an odd time.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jul 6, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ironic
He’s entitled and his comment is on topic, I guess. That just wasn’t the direction I was going in with this post by any means.

Which is why when such things normally happen, people just ignore the comment and that tangent dies. But now I’ve just posted the 6th reply to it. I couldn’t help beating a dead horse. :-)

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jul 6, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I feel

like I may be struck by lightning for saying this, but does anybody know Leonsis’ situation? The way I understand it, he gets 1st dibs on the team right? How does his capital compare to that of his peers (Case, Jobs, Cuban??)

we dont have that money bags owner that other teams are blessed/cursed with.

I only bring this up because I hope the Wizards aren’t subjected to the same problems that the Redskins ran into after JKC’s passing. (i.e. 2 years of limbo, then bought by a Napoleanic owner), and I wonder if Leonsis would save us from that hassle AND have the money to make/keep us competitive. Plus, with the way he has run the Caps, we know we’d be in good hands.

by CJHutch on Jul 5, 2009 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kevin Broom of The Secret Weapon says he checked on the capital of the two. Abe ain’t hurting but even after AOL has taken a downturn Leonsis still has something like a billion dollars.

I love old Abe and wish him well, he says he won’t sell the team until he’s won another Championship, I for one hope he gets his dream fulfilled. He’s a good guy and deserves the late-life joy.

by doclinkin on Jul 5, 2009 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

no cap would kill pro basketball…just ask any former baseball fan. the nba really needs a hard cap and draft picks should be awarded in reverse order of most wins the previous TWO seasons combined.

by les boulez bomber on Jul 6, 2009 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly

The NBA would be ANOTHER league where all the Superstars went to 3 teams…. New York, Bahsten, and LA…. Then Wizards fans could feel what it’s like to lose big-time Free Agents EVERY TIME to the New Yorkers…. To be relegated to 3rd best in the division for the foreseeable future; with no hope of ever making a trade or a Free Agent signing to change the fortunes of the club.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Jul 6, 2009 8:47 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

we have to have a cap. The NBA would go away without one. And I dislike the lottery as well, but I don’t know about

draft picks should be awarded in reverse order of most wins the previous TWO seasons combined

I would rather just go back to the original way, but police it. If teams are tanking, punish them. In today’s society, secrets come out so it couldn’t be hidden. OR just have a lottery with the worst 2 or 3 teams.

by CJHutch on Jul 6, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Another point

I thought I mentioned in the last thread but may have posted elsewhere. Or it was in one of my disappearing posts (maybe I previewed and didn’t hit post?).

San Antonio landed RJeff for nothing more than expiring contracts, Mike Millions has a $9m deal outgoing. Plus Foye. Mike James. This year especially that’s a significant asset to use to upgrade your team. Tacking on DeShawn’s awkward deal, or even considering Jamison + Miller for a frontcourt upgrade, 20 million bones is a ton of room to absorb any player. Not that there’s a guy I’d even want for that kind of salary. Just saying.

It always makes sense to upgrade your roster whenever you can. That gives you the benefit of better layers, helps your team win, and drives up values all around. The rich get richer in this league. Free agents even sign for cheaper to land in a winning situation. That’s about creating flexibility as a byproduct of team improvement, not an end in and of itself.

by doclinkin on Jul 5, 2009 11:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Better 'players'..

Not better ‘layers’. Which may help in a henhouse, but not so much a basketball team.

by doclinkin on Jul 5, 2009 11:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I posted it elsewhere, but they should really wait. I hate to say it as a put it together right now fan, but they really do not know who will resonate with flip, the coaches, the system, nor who really improved over the summer.

ps- they still need some cheap big bodies. But I would feel a lot better heading into the playoffs if the let these guys play for six months and made a significant move heading into the playoffs after assessing the team on the court, not paper.

by les boulez bomber on Jul 6, 2009 12:36 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yes, and more...

As I also have said previously, the Wizards need to see how this bunch (plus, say, Rasho) plays together and avoids injuries… AND management needs to assess how the competition is doing as well.

If we are rolling and one or two teams from among the Cav-Celtic-Magic tryptich fades a bit… then a serious move would make all the sense in the world.

by khrabb on Jul 6, 2009 6:31 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Financial flexibility
The fair question to ask here is, what does the “flexibility” gained from the Foye/Miller trade (as well as selling the second-round pick for 2.5 million) actually do to help us long-term?

Okay, let’s see. As an example, consider Songaila’s contract for next year was about $4.8M. So for the same cost, the Wiz can take the team options of any two of Young, Crit, and McGee. Or make a qualifying offer to Foye. Or resign D-Mac if he continues to improve. Or they can put it towards signing some other free agent or paying for another player due to be paid next year traded for an expiring contract. The possible scenarios are nearly limitless. The team has the ability to choose what the best use of that healthy chunk of $ is instead of it being committed to Songaila, who isn’t good enough to make the regular rotation of a contender. Doesn’t that help the team long-term if that decision is made wisely? At the very least, Young + McGee + $600K > Songaila in 2010/11, right? I’m assuming the amount of money the team is willing to spend is limited, of course.

by steadyhand on Jul 6, 2009 12:41 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That's not necessarily true

That money was mostly just going to be used to keep Haywood. Anything extra goes to Foye/Miller.

The Songaila trade really just bought us more Haywood “flexibility.”

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jul 6, 2009 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Now I see the problem

I guess if you look at it that way, you’re right…flexibility is useless if you’re only willing to consider one option.

by steadyhand on Jul 6, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

oops

That came out snippier than I intended…just seems like you’re begging the question to me.

by steadyhand on Jul 6, 2009 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I mean, sure

But that wasn’t the purpose of that sentence. The sentence poses a question about the end result of the flexibility gained. It doesn’t challenge that there’s actually more flexibility. They could do all the things you mentioned, but they also could just add more to the Haywood fund.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jul 6, 2009 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Resigning Haywood
It’s true, we now have more money to re-sign Brendan Haywood, but that just keeps the status quo when we should get better.

Actually it’s getting worse. Remember he turns 30 at the beginning of next season, so we’d be paying for years 31-34. Those are almost always declining years.

by steadyhand on Jul 6, 2009 12:42 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Eh

Haywood doesn’t have too many miles on him because he’s played limited minutes for so many years and he’s not reliant on his athleticism much anyway. I think he ages pretty gracefully.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jul 6, 2009 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not really for Bigs.

Brendan’s game isn’t especially based on athleticism, it’s based on his size, strength, and intelligence. Those things are not likely to decay. Many true Bigs actually get better later in their career. Brendon has certainly peaked later than most players, adding skills that he’d never had before, leadership among them.

I expect him to be productive late into his 30’s, he’s got the 6th longest starting reach in the DX database (going back over 10 years) and has only recently begun putting in significant work into his health, getting bigger and stronger. He actually lost weight with the wrist injury since he couldn’t lift— that’s a good sign. It means his metabolism is firing nicely, he won’t tend to bloat up. Pretty sure Jamison has even turned him onto Yoga, if I remember that right. The only limiter to his production is his health, and he’s been pretty durable.

Battling Etan for minutes will actually help preserve his long-term career. It’s not like he’s played KG-type minutes. I’d have no problem re-inking him to a longterm deal. I suspect you’d get his best years in truth. Guy like Brendan plays like Robert Parish. Could play deep into his 40’s.

by doclinkin on Jul 6, 2009 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

provided the per-year hit wasn’t awful.

by doclinkin on Jul 6, 2009 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

6 years makes me a bit wary

Five years too, just because I never like inking anyone to that many years. Something like 4/35 is fair, I think.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jul 6, 2009 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Four games...

…will determine the market on Brendan. Our 4 tilts with Orlando this year.

Big Wood has played Dwight pretty well recently. East Coast teams need to find the answer for LeBron and Dwight. A strong Big (like Dwight) tends to reduce LeBron’s utility, forces him into a jumpshooting role, but who can stand their ground with Holy Howard in the paint? Very few. Brendan makes him work, and knows how to flop as well to use the refs against his power.

The Cavs landed Shaq to solve that equation, but Shaq at this point is always an injury risk. Won’t last as long as Dwight. So ask yourself, how long is Dwight gonna be a problem for East Coast teams? Then see if you’re willing to pay an extra year not to lose Brendan.

One other figure to remember: 19 wins…

I’d go six years since we’re the only team able to offer him the extra year. I’d give him the higher dollar figure overall, in order to reduce the yearly hit, and hope he goes for the security guarantee more than the per-year figure. Otherwise I guarantee you the Miami Heat will steal him Riles loves hisself a defensive center, and that’s the only position they lack to become a powerhouse team.

by doclinkin on Jul 6, 2009 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

without

getting into the Haywood talent discussion, the question on how long we sign him has one more variable – McGee. Does anyone have visions of us starting him at some point?

by CJHutch on Jul 6, 2009 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We'll just have to wait and see

but I think we’ll get a good idea this year.

Sure would be nice to have them both for a few years, but I don’t think BTH is giving us any kind of discount when the time comes.

by MR on Jul 6, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah no discount--- which is why

I was thinking we might retain him long-term at a lower per-year salary but in overall total dollars a better deal than opponents can afford. We’re allowed to ink a longer deal than other teams. That way he gets the guarantee of better money in the long haul, without killing the cap year after year.

Also. It’s good to remember that the per-year salary increase is not required, it just happens to be industry standard. In recent years Chicago even signed some of it’s players to declining deals. Imagine if we sign Brendan to a flat salary, steady. This makes his deal easier to trade since it won’t balloon towards the end of his contract when teams might worry he’d be less productive. I’m not worried, but I understand why prevailing sentiment suggests one should be leery of an older player.

But with a flat deal at a reasonable rate per annum, you have a big defensive center inked longterm, and your young puppy supertalent learning at first behind him and then, maybe seizing the top spot. At that point Brendan is a solid back-up, or can share the front court with him (depending on McGee’s developing skill level) or becomes a solid trade asset.

Understand Flip has apparently talked about trying McGee at PF. He’s got the raw athleticism of a guy like KG entering the league, he just has no real idea how to use his size. His mother raised him to play Small Forward, hasn’t yet figured out what to do with the fact that he’s longer than everybody. Has just started to put on his grown-man weight. But given his silly athletic ability, I’m putting no cap on his upside. I suspect with the right coach he could definitely play next to Brendan.

by doclinkin on Jul 6, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agree in General About Flat Contracts

The problem in this case, however, is that Brendan will almost certainly get a contract offer in the $10 million per season average range. If we pen him to a six year flat contract, we will still only be able to save about $1 million per season and still beat his other offers by including a sixth contract year. However, if we escalate his contract, we can save $1-2 million more which would certainly help us acquire another big and keep him for next season.

The flat contract might be a better idea for Miller or Foye, depending on who we decide to keep.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jul 6, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Heck

I’ve even seen declining deals (Marcus Camby)

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Jul 6, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I Do
getting into the Haywood talent discussion, the question on how long we sign him has one more variable – McGee. Does anyone have visions of us starting him at some point?

I envision him as a Tim Duncan-style power forward that takes over for Antawn when his deal expires. I also imagine Ernie trading Blatche to make room for him at the position. Only if Blatche finally “gets it” this season and plays with consistency will I change my mind on this.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jul 6, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Blatche gets it

He gets that he is a decent backup at two positions that will hold down the fort for 15 minutes per game and is appropriately paid.

I’ve settled into the fact that he may very well stay at that level. What the Wiz desperately need is a player that doesn’t cost much and that can hold down the fort for 15 minutes per game. Why trade him away? Especially when we’re looking at guys like Collins or Frye.

by MR on Jul 6, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Conundrum

The conundrum I see is that in order for McGee to get significant playing time in order to develop into a starting power forward, he needs minutes at the position to develop. If he’s getting those minutes to develop, then there are no minutes at the position for Blatche. I suppose we could keep Blatche on as a backup center, but I think we can hire a veteran that makes Blatche’s salary and can defend the 5 better. That is why I think Blatche should be traded.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jul 6, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Blatche only makes around 2.5 million I believe. And can back up either position, which should be valuable in your scenario because we don’t really know if McGee will be a 4 or 5.

by MR on Jul 6, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

the ultimate lineup to me would be McGee at PF, and Blatche at SF, and backing up the PF spot. That won’t happen here (not full time at least), but it would be nice.

by CJHutch on Jul 6, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

dont worry…it will take mcgee all 6 years and a really long shower to get over 240. they are not comparable if you need to stop howard

by les boulez bomber on Jul 6, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's Why I Think of McGee as a PF

If we are waiting for him to acquire the bulk to defend the 5, then you’re right, it will take McGee several seasons of training and conditioning to get there. But he can learn to start guarding the likes of Rashard Lewis and Boris Diaw much sooner. He just needs to work on his footwork and positioning. He already has the quickness and the athleticism.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jul 6, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

McGee is already over 240

Currently at 245lbs – been working out all Summer.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Jul 6, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’d give him 3-4 years tops. Anyone over 35 and expected to contribute anything more than a guys 10 years younger than him must be an amazing durable player. Is Brendan? maybe but no point in gambling.

by Fundefined on Jul 6, 2009 2:41 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The other post was conveniently cut off

I just want to say: Please stop talking about trading Jamison! Notice I did not put this in all caps, because I don’t want people to think I’m crazy. Some on this board are getting too cute with the trade machines. There is no reason to trade Jamison. He’s our second best player. Stop. Stop. Stop.

by Unselds on Jul 6, 2009 8:45 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd say

3rd best player, but definitely most consistent.

by CJHutch on Jul 6, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fell into the reading

the 6-month old post trap. Sorry guys. But still, no Jamison trades please.

by Unselds on Jul 6, 2009 9:27 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

An ancient one

LOL. The suggested Blazers trade from eons ago. Hey man, it’s Monday.

by Unselds on Jul 6, 2009 10:01 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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