Is there a plan?
by Rook6980 on Jul 4, 2009 12:08 AM EDT
in Team Analysis
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Am I being too pessimistic?
I loved the trade for Foye and Miller. I thought it was a good start to the off-season. Ernie addressed several weaknesses; specifically backup PG, and 3-point shooting. In Miller and Foye, he added a couple of really good catch-and-shoot guys - perfect for the Flip Saunders style Offense - and a perfect fit for the driving Arenas. Miller can play multiple positions, is an excellent rebounder and a very good passer. Foye has been mis-used most of his career. He's very good playing off the ball, but can create shots for himself and teammates as well. A true combo-guard. Both Miller and Foye will benefit by playing in Flip Saunder's match-up zone defense; where their weaknesses as individual defenders can be alleviated by the scheme.
Then Ricky Rubio fell to the 5th spot - and at first, after I could breathe again, I thought Ernie made a mistake trading the 5th pick so early. Why didn't he wait until draft night to see who would be available? I mean, Rubio is the second best player in the draft.... by a wide margin, right? That's what everyone said. I went through draft night with several different emotions having a tug-of-war with my fan-spirit. I've come to a realization of sorts about Rubio. Yeah, that kid is going to be great in my opinion. Five years from now, Wizards fans will be looking back on this draft and saying "boy, if only Ernie had kept that 5th pick and drafted Rubio". Similar to what some Wizards fans are saying about Devin Harris now. But five years is a long time to wait - Abe probably doesn't have that long. The roster that's been assembled doesn't have that long. Waiting for Rubio to develop is the wrong approach. The Wizards need to "win now".
They're going "all in" for the next couple of seasons to see if this core can compete. Ok, I get it. So that's why they didn't take a flier on DeJuan Blair. Even though Blair seemingly has some tools the Wizards need, and even though the trade made the Wizards roster unbalanced - and the roster is now light on big men (or rather, they have a few light big men). Drafting Blair and hoping he could develop quickly and contribute right away was probably a pipe dream. So I soothed my ruffled fan feelings by telling myself that by selling the pick for $2.5 Million dollars, Grunfeld has set himself up to spend a little more on the Free Agent market. That $2.5 Million can offset some of the Luxury Tax that the Wizards will have to pay when they acquire that quality big man with the MLE. Right?
I had dreams of getting guys like Marcin Gortat, Zaza Pachulia, or Drew Gooden. Any of those guys would improve the Wizard's talent level and depth. There were other names like Antonio McDyess - a defensive and rebounding specialist with a sweet 15-foot shot. Or Shelden Williams - a solid, strong physical defender that is an excellent rebounder and can block some shots. They're not in the Ron Artest, David Lee or Paul Millsap range of talent - but still good enough to raise the team's talent; Push guys like Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee back a bit in the rotation. Provide some veteran leadership and poise. Perhaps even enough of a talent influx to push the Wizards past Boston or maybe even past Orlando.
Now we hear that the Wizards will be playing it cool during this Free Agent signing period. Probably waiting until late summer to look at the remainining "talent". Talent that 30 other teams have passed over to this point; looking for someone to accept a veteran minimum contract for one year. Ernie did say he's looking for "someone that could come in occasionally and give us six to eight minutes." (Pecherov played 8.7 minutes in 35 games - is that what he's talking about?). That certainly doesn't sound like an "upgrade" to me, but rather more like a "scrub". A mop up guy. An injury insurance guy. I guess that also means that Grunfeld likes the depth that Blatche and McGee bring to the backup Center and PF positions.... and that there's not an upgrade out there that he likes better.
There's always the possibility of a trade involving Mike James' expiring contract and a combination of other "assets" (Stevenson, Nick Young, Critt); but considering the fact that they'll need to re-sign Haywood and either Miller or Foye next year, Ernie may want to keep that expiring contract to help with Cap and Tax issues.
Total committed salaries for next season are $56.6 Million for 9 players; that's assuming they tender a qualifying offer to Dominic McGuire and exercise team options on Javaris Crittenton and JaVale McGee (those are good assumptions). Brendan Haywood will probably require $9-10 Million to re-sign. That puts them at about $65.6 Million for 10 players - and they will need to sign at least three more to get to the League mandated 13 roster slots. If they sign two draft picks, or two vet minimum contracts, it would add about $2.5 Million. That puts their 2010-2011 salaries at about $68.1 Million. Even if we assume the Luxury Tax will increase to $73-$74 Million (from $71.15 Million in 2008-09), that still does not leave a lot of room to re-sign Foye or Miller.... So, unless there's some move to shed salary, it appears to me that the Wizards will be a Tax payer in 2010-11 as well.
So now I'm confused. Even with Foye and Miller, I don't think the Wizards have improved enough to contend for the Eastern Conference Title, much less contend for a Championship. As Brendan Haywood said, they're probably 4th best in the Conference. Ernie Grunfeld is NOT spending any of the MLE to improve the talent level on the team. Is he just waiting to see how this team develops and plays together? Will Ernie ever go "all in"? Are we waiting for something to happen next year? Are we trying to hover just under the Tax level and still hoping to compete?
Help me out everyone. Where are we headed?
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I think you summed it up perfectly. Unfortunately, they might not get it. You can not coddle 20 year old kids and expect them to lift their game. The best way to develop Blatche and McGee IS to sign a decent veteran whom they have to beat out for playing time. I like the Diop trade suggested elsewhere. They do not need any more stick figures. They need men in man sized bodies. Because you can not attract the cheap veteran (ala Artest) until you prove you are serious and at least make you conference finals.
This is also the problem you get when you give max contract to non-superstar players. I like Gilbert and the rest of the core, but Ernie needs to approach them about restructuring their contracts to afford more talent so they can win. If those mega multimillionaires refuse, well then, that tells you all you need to know. And you know who to trade (though Gilbert probably can not be moved)!
Great post- spot on.
by les boulez bomber on Jul 4, 2009 1:39 AM EDT reply actions
The problem isn't Gilbert's contract
It’s fair value for a borderline max player. You also overpay your core guys, because they’re your core guys. It’s the other deals (Etan, Songaila, etc) that are too much.
And you can’t restructure contracts in the NBA.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
What does...
“FoS”… stand for? Sorry, always been late to the game on internet slang.
"McGee is just flying all over the place. He’s like a condor." -Stacey King
Or FOFM
full of fecal matter
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.
is there a plan
every team has or should have a plan. question is whether is it a good plan. i believe we have a plan. we just have so much bad luck. the only downfall to EG’s plan for the wiz, was when he signed gilbert for abe pollins life savings. lol…..dont get me wrong i love gilbert. he did a lot for the city and he puts people in the seats. i just wouldn’t invest so much into a injured player.
Your analysis has been on the mark Rook
Rook, you and Prada have been tearing it up lately. It really has been a pleasure reading this blog (even more so than usual) these past few weeks, to see someone take the time and energy and brainpower to articulate the ideas behind the raw emotions of confusion and disappointment that many have felt the past few weeks.
There’s a balance because being a fan is like a marriage, no matter how angry you get, in the morning you know you’re going to wake up next to the Wizards. But when the truth is worrisome, you have to call it like you see it, you can’t put a smiley face on everything and barring a James+Stevenson package trade or an MLE signing, its hard to whitewash the lack of depth and fragility of our roster (if a starting big goes down, a 1.5 mill guy won’t be much of a plan B).
You can’t blame the organization for last year, the level of injuries would have doomed any team, Lakers Celtics Magic anybody. However, this year if we go in with Jamison, Haywood, Blatche, McGee + Ruffin/Booth 2.0 and we drop from 4th seed to 7th during a stretch where Haywood or Jamison misses 15 or so games, then its Ernie and Abe’s fault. Anyone in their right mind can see that we need at least one more LEGIT big man who can fill in if needed and fill in adequately enough that it doesnt cost us games. Some guy who can only be reasonably expected to hold down the fort for 8 minutes a night while the others are getting a breather, isn’t going to be enough of an insurance policy.
We know injuries happen, its the story of the past three years, to not plan for it would be negligent and should be the last mistake Ernie should be able to make as Wiz GM.
And even without injury
Blatche and McGee will get abused by the stronger NBA centers in the 15 mpg that Haywoods on the bench. Calvin Booth 2.0 whoever he turns out to be will probably be likewise abused by same stronger NBA centers. Its like watching a train-wreck in slow motion except you can see this one from four months away.
by morethesamewiz on Jul 4, 2009 2:48 AM EDT up reply actions
thanks for the praise
We all appreciate it…
I also appreciate constructive criticism…. but I like praise better.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
beat me
to the punch. I just replied these same sentiments on the McDyess post. I really don’t think Ernie knows what the plan is. We are NOT built to win now. I’m sorry to burst the bubble of the guys who think we can get away with McGee and Blatche and an “8 to 10 minute player.” That’s not the case. Everyone is saying Blatche and McGee can hold the fort at backup center. (Well, maybe not everyone) OK, so who’s going to back up Jamison? —McGuire?… Butler?…MILLER? No. No, and NO. If we want to contend, we need 2 more backup bigs. And they need to at least PUSH for playing time. But here’s the thing. EVERYONE wants quality bigs, so they’re not going to be growing off trees, ESPECIALLY not “later on.”
So we’re not REALLY built to win now. But our salary situation isn’t going away without blowing up our (supposed) Big 3, which Ernie has said he won’t do. Now, if you won’t make the blockbuster deal (sorry, Foye and Miller don’t qualify here), and you won’t make the big signing, what’s left? Upgrade through the draft. Nope, didn’t do that either.
Where does that leave us? Competing for the 4th or 5th spot in the East. Pretty much what we’ve been doing for the past 5 years. So here’s the question – with an organization that became used to being a cellar dweller for so long, is making it to the 1st or 2nd round of the playoffs simply good enough?
I did not vote
Because there is not an option that expresses what I believe to be the plan:
Ernie’s plan is to go all in with the Big 3, on a budget. Or, as Mike Prada has said a number of times, the Wizards are trying to have it both ways.
He claims (I’m not sure he believes it, but he at least claims it) that the Wizards can win a championship in the next two years with the Big 3 as the team’s three clear best players, with some good parts around them.
He believes (I believe correctly) that in this economy, and given that the Wizards are already paying the luxury tax so any signing will cost the Wizards twice the price, that sitting out the first week(s) of free agency is smart. Good players are going to go unsigned, and will eventually sign for much less. After Haywood’s injury last year and its impact, and after trading both Etan and Darius, I don’t know how he can believe that he just needs a free agent who will be able to play 6 to 8 minutes a game.
P.S., Thanks to morethesamewiz for, “no matter how angry you get, in the morning you know you’re going to wake up next to the Wizards.”
I think that "Trust Ernie" would have worked for you then
Also
P.S., Thanks to morethesamewiz for, "no matter how angry you get, in the morning you know you’re going to wake up next to the Wizards."
yeah – perfect sentiment for me as well.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Yup
There’s a plan, it’s just not a particularly great one.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
No reason not to sit out the next few weeks...
Ariza to Houston and Ron-ron to LA.
Hedo to Portland? Oh wait, there are more Turks, international teammates and money in Toronto.
Charley V and Benny G to the Pistons.
Shaq to Cleveland.
Gortat to somewhere in Texas.
The Celtics Courtship of Sheed.
This stuff is great copy but the point is that until a number of players who are out of the Wizards budget range get sorted, there is no point in getting involved in a relatively peripheral deal until this happens.
Examples: If Gortat goes to Dallas, then Diop or Dampier (big bucks but expiring ones) become reasonable targets. Dampier in particular… I think the dude is a much more subtle and skilled big guy than he looks to be.
The Lakers are getting a smaller enforcer, do they still need Mbenga?
Toronto is going to have to clean house to find money to pay Hedo, that makes Voskuhl a cheap but effective pickup.
If the Celtics are giving up on Leon Powe, shouldn’t we at least kick his tires?
How will Heytvelt look in Las Vegas?
And there is still Rasho….
There is no question about what the Wizards need… a big guy (or two) who can step in and give meaningful fouls, is good enough in practice and in game situatons to push Blatche and McGee to mature faster, and whose contract (either by actual dollar amount or limited duration) won’t get in the way of resigning Brendan and Caron, and reupping Miller or Foye if one or both of them pan out.
Patience, patience, patience.
I agree
that we don’t need any of the big name players being swept up in free agency. The problem is, look at the teams doing the sweeping. 3 of the conference finalists made significant signings. Sure, the Lakers signing Artest is boom or bust, especially considering Ariza’s youth. And maybe Hedo gives Orlando a more all around game than Vince, but I still consider Vince Carter an upgrade there.
Now, as for ..
Patience, patience, patience.
Just how much patience should we have? Are you saying have patience this summer? This year? This decade? We have been running in place for 5 years now. How much more patience do we need?
whose contract …won’t get in the way of resigning Brendan and Caron…
I hate to be the one to broach this subject, but are we SURE we want these two back? Before everyone jumps down my throat, think it out. Sure, it will be hard to find a rugged 7 footer who knows his role like Haywood, but when do we start thinking about starting McGee? And as far as Butler, look, I love the guy. I personally think he’s our best player. He’s also our most valuable asset in a trade scenario, meaning he’s probably the only one of the “Big Three” we’d be able to get at least equal return in a trade. Is there any doubt that if we don’t get it done this year we need to rethink the “Big Three”? I don’t think so.
Why do you feel the need to display so much emotion by capitalizing/bolding certain words in every post?
just askin’…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laydODN6xVk
bolding creates emphasis
emphasis on a certain word or phrase allows the poster to write the sentence like he would have said it out loud – with emphasis on the word there is better understanding by the reader.
Same thing with punctuation…………… lots of periods indicate a pause, for emphasis.
Eats shoots and leaves…
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Patience as in this summer...
We need to have all the key the pieces in place by the time training camp starts… this does not preclude doing a deal in February… but the Wizards need to get out of the gate fast this season or the fan base will disappear… If I am management, my goal is to be 10 games over .500 (i.e. 25-15) by the turn of the year… so that any late deal is a deal from strength (for example, we will likely know by then if Blatche and Young are going to be serious, disciplined competitors or if its time to make a move).
The team cannot risk an injury or injuries taking it out of the race early, and given the track record, going 5 or 6 deep in the front court is not an unrealistic strategy for the fans to expect from management.
So that is what i meant by patience (and even mine has its limits).
And now Toronto may have moved ahead of the Wizards
with their deal to sign Hedo Turkoglu
That gives Toronto a pretty potent line-up that includes Turkoglu , Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani, and Jose Calderon. They drafted rookie DeMar DeRozan to be their Shooting Guard; and they traded with Philly to pick up banger and rebounder Reggie Evans.
The East just keeps getting tougher and tougher.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
That doesn't make Toronto much better
I still think we’re better than them. Replacing Marion with Turkoglu doesn’t change all that much.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I disagree
I think that trade puts them close to the Wizards… probably 5th in the East…and who knows.. are they done yet? Absolutely not. They still have their MLE and their LLE, and look like they’re ready, willing and able to deal. They are still WAY under the Luxury Tax, and need at least another player or two to fill out their roster.
Marion was a good player – good defender, pretty good rebounder… But Turkoglu gives the Raptors another guy to go to in the 4th Quarter with the game on the line. Teams can’t load up on Bosh any more. Plus, along with Calderon, they now have two guys that can initiate the Offense. Bargniani is getting better every year. Evans and Kris Humphries gives them some bangers and 12 fouls to use on big guys in the middle. They are another team that could probably use a good back-up Center to give them 10-20 minutes a night…. So look for them to sign a big competent 7-ft Center with at least some if not all of their MLE… (another competitor for the big man the Wizards are looking for…)
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
They don't have their MLE left
Teams under the cap don’t get an MLE.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I agree w Prada here
It’s not just Marion, but the other players Toronto has to give up on/waive which makes their depth very suspect.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.
Re-writing the Blue Print
Orlando almost did it this year. If it wasn’t for some horrid coaching decisions by SVG in the NBA Finals it may have actually happened. Every year the " experts " say you need a interior presence, a super-star or two blah blah blah. We all ready see where the wizards are headed this year. With our overabundance of guards and our tall but slender big men are strength will be in a fast paced game. Spread the floor and the more possessions the better. There are not enough players around for everyone to construct the ideal team. He has given this team a chance to win a NBA title and hasn’t mortgaged the future to do it.
he’s given them a chance to be competitive, not win.
with interior defense and rebounding, they could go to the conference finals
add in interior “create your own shot” type scoring, then they could compete for the championship…if everybody stayed healthy and they learned to play good team defense.
by les boulez bomber on Jul 4, 2009 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Im not advocating the Orlando plan
I was just using them to make a point. This team has a chance to show the NBA a new way to win just in the way that Orlando did it w/o a single " super star " and playing you know actual team Basketball. ( I’m sorry i cant put Dwight Howard in that category yet due to his post game arsenal consisting of about two-three moves tops ) The major portion of our talent acquisition phase has ended. Now its time to look at the intangibles of this team and see if they can make the necessary strides there to compete with the elite teams of the NBA.
Yeah - You're right about Howard
He doesn’t really have a “go to” move….. I wonder if that means he’s a " pampered waste of talent".
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Dwight Howard IS a superstar
When you score 12.8 ppg on inside shots, which are 83% of what you take, while having an eFG% of .622 on them …. which all earns you over 10 FT attempts per game, you don’t always “need” an inside move.
Howard is a superstar now … if he develops a baby hook and a 70% FT rate, he will be absolutely unstoppable.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.
the league really needs a hard cap so that there are more than 6 teams every year that could legitimately win it.
by les boulez bomber on Jul 4, 2009 10:36 AM EDT reply actions
That wouldn't be a good idea at all
Then, you’d see the best players always switching teams because of the hard cap. That would be pretty annoying.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
This is a good point, but more a product of their situation than ours...
Look if we could sign a guy that would be a definite top 6 player for us and really upgrade our talent. I would be for it, but I don’t think those FAs want to be here for a variety of reasons, not just money, look at the list so far:
- Hedo, he will be starting in Toronto. We’re not offering that Artest, went to the Lakers who just won the titke. Plus they lost Ariza and, Odom is being asked to take a pay cut and hasn’t signed (I’m sure he will but…)
-
- Ariza, where would he fit in here? He may start in Houston. Villanueva ditto in Detroit
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- Ben Gordon is being promised large minutes Gortat will be a starter, agin we’re not offering that.
-
On the trade front:
- VC would have been great if we could have got him, but what would you have been willing to give up? Orlando essentially gave up Hedo plus Alston etc. Shaq, would you have been in favor of getting him? That might have been doable but we would have lost BTH next year and there would have been other issues as well, but we would probably be better. The cavs are better but signing him may cost Anderson V. So who is their best 4 now?
-
Back to the Wizards. Everyone is talking as if trying to keep this core and “winning now” means it’s this year or bust. I’m not sure that’s true we only have one old player AJ. The rest are good to go. Assuming Gilbert get back most of his form we should have a good 3 year run or more as a high quality team. In that time it is clear Cleveland will have to rebuild, maybe without LeBron. Boston will be very old. Orlando without Alston,Gortat and Hedo will not be the team that went to the finals and may , move backwards
So since we are trying to be competitive not just next year but for a few years, it comes back to who can we sign that would bring anything like reasonable value for
the money. I personally don’t think that includes a 35 year player that doesn’t address our specific need for a 7 footer. Unfortunately looking at the remaining free agents I’m not sure anyone fits the bill that is worth MLE money.
What are some of your suggestions? Because I don’t think it’s reasonable to be upset about not signing guys we couldn’tr have signed anyway even if we offered the full MLE.
by NeverNervousPervis on Jul 4, 2009 10:41 AM EDT reply actions
normally, that is true. but abe is ill and nothing would make him happier than going out with a championship. so there is a real health urgency. there is no three year plan and the core will probably not be broken up unless someone were offering us MORE than what we are giving up.
by les boulez bomber on Jul 4, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I have to say I honestly don't think they a managing the team like Abe is going to die any second.
And they shouldn’t.
But if they we’re should they sign Matrix?
Or shouldn’t they trade Butler to gamble on Amare? Or both?
BTH, Amare, Matrix, Miller, Arenas with Foye and AJ first off the bench? It’s a gamble but could pay off huge. But I don’t think they are going to do that, and it may be for the best.
Another point is that I don’t think that all contending teams are necessarily as big and deep as everyone seems to be asserting. The Lakers have Bynum who was inneffective in the playoffs. Then they have Gasol, Odom and Mbenga. Neither Gasol or Odom are “bangers” but they are talented bigs who were essential pieces in a title winner. Last year the Celtics has their starters then they had Powe & PJ Brown. Big Baby wasn’t getting minutes. The Spurs are generally Duncan and the stiffs (Oberto and his ilk). Who was behind Big Ben and Rasheed when they won the title? Who was Hakeem the Dream’s back up?
In other words, I don’t think a backup big is the barrier to winning a title. All of these things are bigger:
1. Gilbert’s skill level after 2 years missing
1a. The ability of our starters to match up with possibly more talented teams in the East.
2. The health of our starters
3. The defensive play of our starters – particularly three point defense.
4. 3 point shooting
by NeverNervousPervis on Jul 4, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Injuries
We saw what happened when Haywood got injured last year.
We saw what happened in Boston when KG got hurt.
If the Lakers lost Gasol, would they have gotten to the WC title game- or to the Championship series?
THAT’s why many Wizards fans are calling for a very good back-up Center….. Blatche (a Small Forward in a Center’s body) and McGee (string bean) are just not good enough if Haywood is injured again. It doesn’t matter how well Arenas plays, or if Caron and Antawn continue to put up numbers… I won’t matter if Foye and Miller are an upgrade at SG…. Without a strong front line, backed by a defensive minded center, the Wiz are a middle-of-the-pack playoff team – and one and done in the Playoffs. Again!
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Ok
Yeah we need a good back-up center. But I think that we (Wizards fans) are undervaluing Blatche. He has been called all sorts of things by people on this site. But he has improved every year and I believe he will this year also. As will McGee. I take our top five and their chemistry over most any other team in the east, save for Cleveland. The most talented team usually doesn’t win the championship. It is the team that plays best together.
Blatche
will get destroyed guarding Howard and Shaq. Probably Oden and some others as well. Plus, you’re talking about Blatche being our backup center. So who’s backing up 34 year old Jamison? Whoever is has to guard Garnett, Stoudemire, Brand, Bosh. Even Griffin will probably cause some foul trouble. Foul trouble is something Blatche has not been able to stay out of. McGee probably won’t be able to as well. ESPECIALLY guarding guys 100 lbs heavier than he is.
true
That is why we need a big thug. Someone to rebound and play defense against other quality bigs. Lets not forget, we possess our own match up problems for other teams.
exactly
I don’t think anyone’s looking for a top 6 player in FA. The class isn’t that deep. And I’m not sure anyone thinks we should’ve broken the bank for the guys that have gone so far. It’s just that the vibe (at least for me) is that they don’t want to spend anymore. Yet they will have to if they’re serious about contending, because we don’t have the troops down low to hold the fort.
so does this mean that signing rasho would help us contend?
he isn’t a top player in the FA market but he has started in the past and can provide good minutes off the bench he also won a title with the spurs. we don’t need a bigtime player but we do need a decent backup which mcgee and blatche would compete against.
Marbury
If EG spends Pollin’s money on Marbury, I’m convinced the plan has gone off the rails. I’m not opposed to Marbury as a player, but one thing we don’t need is another guard.
where did
THAT come from?? If we sign Marbury I’m burning all my gear. EVEN my old Bullets stuff. I hope you’re just speculating, and that’s no ta rumor making the rounds. How in the hell would an over 30, score 1st/2nd/3rd mentality point guard help us? Granted, ESPN would hang around us a little more, but that’s it.
it comes from...
here, http://www.nypost.com/seven/07042009/sports/knicks/david_may_lee_ve_the_big_apple_177540.htm
but it’s nothing but a whole bunch of hot air.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.
I'm pulling the 'Relax' lever on this one.
Here we have a team that has just picked up a new coach after a five year run with the last one. We re-upped two of our better players at premium contracts in part because the promise the team showed when both were last healthy together, but had to re-shuffle the deck following a losing season.
But the truth is we have the most talented team right now that we have had in my memory as a fan. Maybe the CWebb squads had more raw talent, though it was all piled into one position. Now we have balanced depth of talent. Starters and back-ups, a mix of quality veterans and developing youth. We added quality outside shots to stretch the defense and allow attack lanes for outside-in dribble-drive guys like Caron (below the foul line) and Gil (if healthy). We added relative size (in terms of per-position per-minutes played). We go three deep at any spot (at varying degrees of efficiency):
PG: Gil, Randy, Critt
SG: Miller, Randy, Nick, DSteve, (Dom)
SF: Caron, Miller, Jamison, DMac, (Blatche— see below)
PF: Jamison, Blatche, Dom, (Miller), (McGee apparently— they’re looking at him there)
C: Haywood, Blatche, McGee
And on the bench we added a fundamentally sound smart coach who makes solid adjustments to maximize the strengths of his players, and defensively works a scheme that should actually minimize our biggest weaknesses. The guy who literally wrote the book on zone defenses. Who likes to go Big whenever possible. Whose defensive scheme is not: ‘double-down on the lane to protect the paint’ but instead is: ‘challenge all perimeter shots, force the extra pass, zone the paint, give up the midrange jumper off the dribble if you have to, but guard everything else’. A coach who actually makes in-game adjustments and scripts plays for his guys.
Plus we add a canny crafty ex-veteran like Sammy to teach any youngsters the dirty tricks on how to get by when talent alone won’t get it done. teaching leadership, putting him next to avowed gym rats like Gilbert.
Now there are some basic facts that are important to keep in mind. Yeah we have to win now and win ‘fun’. In a glum economic climate, we’re in competition for your sports dollar with a young exciting winning team that shares the same season, shares the same building. Our media darling star can’t call himself the best in the league like their media darling star. And we’re following a numbing 19-win season.
The pool of DC sports dollars ain’t inexhaustible, even with a hoop head in the Oval Office. This has always been a frontrunner’s town, since there are so many emigrants from other Cities. Winning fun means we can sell tickets and advertising. A late season playoff push helps too, but not as much as it would hurt to fail to sell out a portion of games in the regular season. Winning changes that equation. Teams that get up and down, can run inexhaustibly with reserves three deep at each spot can afford to play uptempo offense and defense. If we win and sell tickets, we can afford better to pay free agents now and in future years. We can afford to pay the lux tax better if necessary.
Understand, we’re taking a lux-tax hit because we had to re-sign Gilbert whatever the cost otherwise we’d bottom out. But to re-sign Gil (and please the owner) we ‘had’ to
re-sign Jamison. Yes Jamsion is older, but think about it, he’s our most durable star, most reliable with a steady 20/10 nightly, and a game not based on above the rim athleticism, but on taking the shot from outside or before the defense arrives, a game less subject to decay by age. And a quality guy offcourt and in the community.
We’ve heard for years how cheap the owner bla bla bla. The owner who built the downtown arenas on his own dime. But now we have the 3rd highest payroll in the league, in large part because of those two players. The back-up plan to signing them would have been: bottom out, suffer abject misery. Essentially like this year, but without a returning all-star. Probably a worse coach. And a longtime losing reputation that doesn’t attract free agents unless the money is large.
SO, the point is: It is imperative that the Wiz not tank. Add talent. Improve where possible. Play well. Win. Sell tickets. We have added a better chance to do that.
The second thing to understand. Ernie has always said you look for a 3 year plan: hire a coach, give them the players they need for the system they run, upgrade when and where possible. Re-evaluate in about three years: are they winning and improving? Did you patch all the holes they needed patched? Did you give them the personnel for the system? Or do you blow it up and go a different direction.
This is year one. We have added some ideal backcourt talent for Flip’s system. We need to win a bit first to restock the war-chest. But there are assets and quite possibly developing talent in the pipeline.
And the year isn’t over. Understand and imagine what we might be able to get mid-season with say Mr 20/10 Jamison and Mike Miller’s nine million dollar expiring contract.
Step One people. Wring out your panties and take a deep breath. Did we get better? Hey, if healthy (pray for mercy) we sure did not get any worse. All you can ask for is constant improvement. I suspect we’ll be pretty well-pleased with the product on court, whether or not we overspend (and pay double cost in luxtax penalties) on our savior Marcin Gortat…
by doclinkin on Jul 4, 2009 12:00 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
A Ray of Hope
Okay maybe just a glimmer but I am glad somebody laid out the optimist view point on our beloved wizards. The Debbie Downers seem to be over running this great blog right now. We are somewhere in the second act of A three-part trilogy. You know when the cards are down and all hope is lost. Flip and EG they got this. My entire life ( im 26 ) the bullets/wizards have blew with only brief glimpses of quality sprinkled in. It seems to be our lot in life. This is the best team the wizards have fielded this decade easily. Lets get behind them and run with it. Im thinking the third part of this trilogy is worth sticking around for.
Imagine being 43 like me...
I used to go to games with my Dad when Elvin and Wes were playing and the Cap Center was a top quality venue. It sucked when things started to decline, but we had the Beef Brothers and were competitive. Still we griped because the Bullets were one of the best teams of the 70’s and now they were “just” competitive. We didn’t know how good it was. We have absolutely been awful (with the Webber teams a brief blip) since then until, Abe swept Jordan out of town. Now the Wizards matter again, and I want them to do it right. No deals for bench guys that kill our cap and maybe stop us from taking advantage of opportunities down the road. We also have to accept that we didn’t have the chance to draft Dwight or LeBron, our chance turned out to be Kwame. Perhaps more to the point Gil got hurt, sometimes the fortunes of teams ride on luck and you can only manufacture so much luck.
Here are another 2 things to consider:
— Cleveland has had Lebron for awhile and haven’t won a title yet.
— Look what has happened to the Suns. They “improved” themselves right out of the playoffs. The Pistons are aboutr to complete a similar project.
by NeverNervousPervis on Jul 4, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Beef Brothers
now THAT’S what we need. An “inadvertant” elbow to Lebron’s chops from Ruland would be sweet.
Don't pee on our parade
We’re Wizards fans. The glass is always half empty.
I think a lot of fans are worried based on the injuries last year. Haywood’s injury revealed a big hole in the front court and fans are worried that he can last a full season and behind him are some younger guys. All this worrying could become a moot point if McGee develops into a Tyson Chandler type player this year (this would also make signing Haywood a bit less of a necessity).
We are just shell-shocked by a season ruined from injuries. The Wiz have addressed this in the backcourt but everyone is still worried about a front court that hasn’t been addressed yet.
I checked the weather
The sky is not falling.
Frontcourt depth. Yes Haywood is critical. Okay. But until McGee snapped Haywood’s wrist Big Wood has proved pretty durable. And the upside to all those years when he had to battle Etan (literally) was that he has fewer miles on those wheels. My chief worry lies in re-signing the guy considering his deal comes due after this year. I Fully expect Pat Riley to show up with a greasy smile and fat contract…
But I’ll worry about that boogieman when he comes knocking, since I doubt Haywood will extend early. We can pay him a longer deal, maybe we can extend him an extra year to keep him.
But reports from Flip and all say Blatche has been working like a demon over the summer. For once. Reflect on this fact, Flip was the first Coach of Dray Blatche’s idol Kevin Garnett. IOf Flip says that Kevin did it like so, I suspect Dray will hear that better and work at it. Now granted I’d love it if the Wiz hired Flip’s college teammate and friend Kevin McHale as a low-post coach. Then I’d have real confidence in the development of McGee and Dray both. But nevertheless Andray Blatche is this year’s graduating senior, having been redshirted (literally) his freshmen year in the league. Am I banking on him? No, I’m saying I will not be startled when he shows better consistency this year.
And while I regret the loss of Darius Songaila’s savvy and smarts. And while there are still no Bigs on the squad who know how to set picks and screens (that help Flip’s offense sing) still I don’t see it as a terrible thing that the young puppies Dray and McGee will now be required to get playing time. That can only help their mindset and preparation off court looking forward to minutes in a game, not wanting to be shown-up or embarrassed. Knowing that you are certain to play means you put in stronger due diligence in the weight room for instance, are less likely to, I dunno, rent some company the night before.
I personally am excited to see what JaVale looks like on the receiving end of Gilbert’s passes. The 20-to-1 assist to turnover version of Gil anyway. When players like Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, and Shaq all name-check the kid and say he’ll be something special, well personally I think I’ll be fine with a few minutes less of Darius Songaila at center.
Also, I like the flexibility of a few open roster spots. It’s been a while since we were able to add a mid-season pick-up in a need position. There’s almost always somebody out there who could be added at a minimum salary off the D-league or whatnot to help the squad.
Last thing: keep your eye on our summer leaguers. Pay attention to Alade Aminu and Josh Hyetvelt. Aminu in particular. He was stuck behind Thad Young at GTech but this kid is long, athletic and whipsmart. Good character, hard worker. He needs a bit of big league weight work, but he recognizes that and is looking forward to it. He’d like to fit in as a Chris Andersen type off the bench doing uptempo active dirty work: blocked shots and rebounds, but has occasionally shown a midrange shot, flashes of a developing complete game. And if he makes the team off grit and hard work he’ll cost next to nothing. I liked him this year well better than his brother who seems to want to play guard.
Personally rather than pay double-dollar on a cast-off veteran retread, I like the chance to let a talented young player work their way onto the squad, while still leaving open a roster spot for a young guy to work their way up.
by doclinkin on Jul 4, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
NO NO NO
The sky is not falling.
Chicken Little is at my door. Don’t steal my pessimistic thunder. It’s all that’s keeping me from kicking my dog.
Actually..
I personally am excited to see what JaVale looks like on the receiving end of Gilbert’s passes.
I’m excited about this too. I’m also looking forward to seeing Crit (or Foye) relieve Gil at the point at times so he can work off the ball a little. I’m envisioning running him off 48 screens the way Flip did with Rip.
Right on
McGee seem like he will benefit most from a new improved Gilbert. Just as Amare looked great his first year because of Nash. This could be the start of something good, if we can play DEFENSE.
Appreciate the optimism and I always love when you post
I always love reading your thoughts.
Just one question: I remember you being really annoyed on draft day with the direction of this franchise. That still the case?
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I also like your posts doc
Obviously Washington improved – filling some holes in the back court. (catch-and-shoot, 3-point shooting, back-up PG, etc…) by acquiring Foye and Miller. Both players are versatile and can play multiple positions and are upgrades over our starting SG from last year.
Where do you see the following teams…
Are they better or worse (right now) than the Wizards?
Have they improved as much as the Wizards? More than the Wizards?
Toronto – Let Marion walk. Acquired Turkoglu and Reggie Evans
Cleveland – Acquired Shaq… and are probably not done yet.
Boston – is trying to get Rasheed Wallace.
Orlando – lost Gortat and Turkoglu, but added Vince Carter
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Various teams
Better, worse. We can beat some, will have a hard time with others. Every year some teams improve others will surprisingly fall off. The question is whether your team has a chance to beat them any given night or series.
We can outrun and outshoot Shaq. He’s terrible on the pick and roll. Won’t challenge the outside. Cleveland had significant trouble handling 6’10" outside shooter Turkoglu, we added a tall shooter of our own. LeBron is most deadly when he has room inside to flush, but now has to cede space to Shaq, when healthy. If they’re coached well, they didn’t get worse by the deal, since they lost nothing of significance. But they don’t terrify me.
Toronto. We’re competitive with them. Neither team will dominate the other.
Boston is better. That’s no change. They’re also older, vulnerable to dings. Seems to me we beat them a couple times last time Haywood was healthy. Does Sheed make them unbeatable? Depends what of day he’s having. Did someone pee in his Wheaties that morning? Did a ref look cross-eyed at his wife or something? I’d be interested to see the relationship Sheed has with the Bahston fans. I don’t guess there’s a total love match there.
Orlando. Tell me a gain how many playoff series teams won with Wince Harder as the difference maker? Turkoglu is clutch. Vince? Maybe, I dunno, as of today I’m unconvinced. Pardon the pun.
As for how good this team can be? I don’t see a championship. But I don’t today see a championship move. We’ll see better during the season. Trade value of any given player is worth more on a winning squad than coming off an injury or a 19-win season. Might as well wait a bit on chemistry, then test the water with a toe, sniff the market, bargain from a position of strength as needed.
Doc your post was the most sensible optimism I've heard
I wanted to vote for option one on this poll but I didn’t because I think a trade to get a big man is in the works and potentially a big deal if the Wizards wait for the 90 days to be up on dealing Foye and/or Miller.
"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck
by George Templeton on Jul 4, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions
The Wizards are in A weird dimension
Everyone on here including me is constantly comparing the Wizards to the other teams in the east trying to determine where we fit in. When we say improved what team are we talking about here? The 19 win team or that far ago fanciful team that had the eastern conference lead all those years ago. Its really hard to get a read on these wizards which is driving most fans into one of two camps that doc listed below. I guess wait and see is really not gonna cut it here.
Very Wierd Indeed
I think we are improved when I look and the weapons we have on our team. Three point shooters. a dynamic point guard, guys that score in the paint… I know don’t have it all, but what we add has to fit with the rest. Some guy that is a rebounder and who will help defend. Chemistry is the name of the game now.
There are two kinds of wizards fans...
…disaster addicts and the constant optimist. No one else survives for long.
Personally I’m resilient as a weeble-wobble. There’s usually a bright-side, the question is how near or how far-off in the future it shows up. I’ll allow myself the occasional frustration, then think through the ramifications. I’m rarely depressed for long.
More than anything on draft day I was unsurprised. And as usual I was more pissed about losing the second rounder than pitching the top pick.
I have my doubts on Rubio, I wanted him if at all for the perceived trade value, but his camp torpedoed that value (on purpose) trying to manipulate the game and land him in a perfect fit. DC was not that perfect fit. In order to afford his contract he would have had to out-shine Hibachi Zero and land large dollar endorsements. Otherwise may as well stay in Spain, where let’s face it the weather is better, food is great, girls are fine, and the kid is a superduperstar. Here we would have had a JCN,jr. situation. Yes it would be a great pick 3 years down the line when his Spain contract ran out, but with the rookie salary structure any team in the Euroleague could have outbid for his services. CSKA Moscow, Panathanaikos, there are a few teams who will and do spend significant money. So we would have burned an asset for nothing. Or to be precise for a limited list of trading partners. As of today we got the better deal.
Ernie had prepped us for the loss of the 2nd rounder, by selling last year’s pick and talking down this draft. So despite quality players available at 32, I was unsurprised that we auctioned the selection. For 2.5 mills as opposed to last year’s 350K. Does this make Ernie more bold in free agency? Doubt it, but it does take the sting off the 5 million dollar tax hit we take, and prevent stop-loss panic trades to dump salary for no return.
DJ Blair, Sam Young, Danny Green, there’s a decent-sized list of guys who were on my radar at round 2, still available. Would they provide instant help? In some cases, probably, but are they better than anyone we could add with roster flexibility and possible trades? Not really.
I would have wanted Stef Curry at 5 if we kept the pick, given who was off the board.
But we ended up with immediate depth at a 2 need positions, in a critical year. We landed players who fit the system, who should be able to exemplify if not teach the concepts; know quantities for a coach who was the color commentator on their broadcast all year. We were near the league bottom in PER production at both backcourt spots last year. Couldn’t hit a three to save our collective lives. That’s an instant upgrade at two spots, starting 2 and back-up point. Stef Curry, not really.
My only nervous caveat on whether we can call this an upgrade in proto-retrospect is that both players have deals that come due at the end of this year. Randy restricted, Mike Millions not. And Brendan and Dom are also due deals.
The hope is that the squad is significantly fun to play on that we get a discount on the re-signs. Other than that, I’m really looking forward to a new season. Offseason for us optimists is where the phoenix of our dashed hopes reassembles to take firey flight. If you don’t mind a poetic waxing.
How Could I Be the Only One Who Rec'd This So Far?
Seriously, dude, do you have a newsletter that I can subscribe to? I pretty much Rec everything I read from you. You should probably get off of the blogs and get a job at the Post or the Times. Awesome stuff yet again.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
'ppreciate it
I’m just doing my public service here. playing pompom girl for the team we live and cheer for.
But if anyone wants to hire me as an idea guy or hype man, well sure I’m open to offers.
This team will do fine - but no championship, ever
With LeBron, Kobe and Howard around, there aren’t many rings left for anyone else.
I’m 31 and have followed the team since the 80s. There were so many horrid seasons in the past – just to keep things in perspective…
I really like this promising roster and you can bet we’re dealing two guards for a legit big man before the season starts. Even if we only get a Ruffin-type via FA this team can contend in the East.
Remember what the Big Three could get done when healthy. They won the season series against the Celtics.
We got Mike Miller and Randy Foye now – when did we ever have such a deep roster? Assuming the 2 Guards for a proven PF/C move happens, then the team is deep and balanced, is experienced, has a core that is accustomed to each other’s game and a hard to beat go-to-guy on bad knees…
We got Flip Saunders now – a great upgrade in the coaching department who has a group of players that will play a fast, high-scoring game to please the crowd and make the play-offs. And I’m fine with that. Come play-off time I’ll hope for a surprise!
I really appreciate this blog. First post.
I like the Bullets
Here's my plan
I’m planning on wishing for:
1. Catastrophic knee injury for LeBron
2. Dwight Howard continues to not know how to play smart basketball and Carter ruins the locker room
3. C’s continue to get older.
4. Spurs: see above
5. Artest loses his mind (in full disclosure – I like Ron, I wish we had him)
I’m sure I could wish ill will on Portland, Denver, Atlanta & OK – but I kind of like those teams and wouldn’t be as upset if they beat the Wiz.
Catastrophic knee injury for LeBron??
that’s a little drastic. Maybe just a Grant Hill type debilitating ankle injury. It’d be nice to see Lebron have to play minus the explosiveness.
No, no
Not drastic. After him talking trash to Arenas shooting that free throw, I want this guy to live the Larry Flynt life. After his 1st round with the Pistons, LeBron said he wished it were the Wizards he was beating. I want him to live with an ostomy bag.
Your meme here.
well
that’s all the more reason to wish for a Jeff Ruland and/or Rick Mahorn reincarnation. Unless Suze O’Malley would be willing to pull a Tonya Harding.
Oh yes.
I am too young for either Jeff Ruland or Mahorn playing for the Bullets but I’ve heard stories from my father about those guys ruling the paint (in particular putting MJ on the ground when he tried to come up on them). That’s not the NBA’s game anymore, but I kind of wish it were. Less dunks for SC to show, more fights for Stern to deal with.
Your meme here.
me?
I wish nobody ill (though LeBron does tempt a fella).
But I’m praying for health first and foremost. Someday that karma pool is gonna tip our way. Then, watchoutnow, we bound for a dynasty…
You can take the high road
I’m sure LeBron’s got enough money to live out the rest of his life very comfortably walking with a cane. Think of the mod’s he can get with that cane. He thinks he’s Jesus, that cane could very easily be fashioned to look like a cross.
Your meme here.
Previous GM's
The one argument I have for Ernie is look at the previous GM’s, would you want them running your team? Wes Unseld and MJ. Both were great players, Unseld was a pretty good coach, but both were awful as talent evaluators. Grunfeld is the best GM we’ve had in years, and when I say that, I mean he’s the only guy we’ve had in years that is qualified to be the GM.
Your meme here.
Seriously though
I rate ernie pretty high. You look at his CV and its full of successful team building. He never has had that great super-star that make coaches and GM’s look so smart. This argument has been rehashed time and time again but honestly alot of these " Great " team builders got lucky and nailed one player right ’ the super star ". Any of us could have built a team around jordan, shaq or Duncan. I think what EG does has to be respected considering he is not working with a player of that caliber.
I’ve deleted my response because it’s incorrect and retarded. In looking at EG’s CV, there is room for optimism. And I maintain that he’s better than any GM we’ve had in a long time.
(My original post confused EG with Flip, I’d have left it intact but I’m not that self-assured to post complete crap.)
Your meme here.
excellent post, doc
I think many of us realize the Wizards have assembled the best team in memory and are very excited. We are also just being emotional and exercising our right as fans to try to see how we would put us over the top, at least on paper! At least for me, that is where the fun lies.
In all honesty, considering there is a new coach, a lot of new or returning players, and a new system, the right thing to do is to stay flexible and see who plays well together, who responds to the coaches, improves, identify/confirm the weaknesses/health situation and make a move heading into the trade deadline. The economy is not so good; it will not be materially better in nine months, so there will be players available.
It is just that in this case, the right thing to do is not a lot of fun right now…especially during the off-season, summer doldrums. So we sit around and play paper manager because they still need to improve upon this group to win it, which is what we crave as fans.
by les boulez bomber on Jul 4, 2009 10:19 PM EDT reply actions
Sure fine. I just get tired of--
—the same old ‘woe is me’ Wizards storylines.
The weak and cheap sniping that Abe is too ‘cheap’ to rush out and purchase marginal players.
The front office has no idea what they are doing because after all we traded away (x-player) a decade ago.
The concept that we’re shortsighted or idiotic because the front office refuses to select your particular favorite player, who fits a style that our team is not constructed to play.
The idea that we’re not doing anything to improve the team simply because we don’t make knee-jerk reflex trades, year after year.
The crisis addiction. The doom complex. The curse theory.
Heck even if you believed in curses and the supernatural, or the laws of thermodynamics, or computing, you might heed the concept that you get back what you put into an equation. Ask and you shall receive. You shall have what you say. For every action there’s an equal and opposite reaction. A butterfly flaps it’s wings in Singapore, there’s a hurricane in Barbados. Garbage in: garbage out.
Not saying this is unique to DC, we just have a higher percentage of articulate and hyper-verbal protesters and whiners. Folks who are contentious for a living.
But understand, the fanbase is part of the calculus of free agency. Understand we are part of the recruitment team. If you have loud raucous partisan fans roaring on behalf of their team, opponents notice. We boo LeBron, where many arenas don’t . That’s all to the good.
But we also have this repeating cassandra complex of doom that frankly seems self-defeating if not self-fulfilling. Now I’m not totally Homer Homeboy, but nor do I consider the word an insult. Fan derives from fanatic, implying that you’ve lost some of your sense of perspective. That you believe perhaps we’ll win even when we have no chance of doing so. That you have an unreasonable faith regardless of the odds.
We’ve got players on this squad that have come up large against statistically murderous circumstances. Caron could be locked up today, many DC kids get caught up in the same game he battled to escape. there’s a role-model for hard work. He was playing ball, was gifted with skill and athleticism, yes. He also worked at Burger King to afford shoes etc. No shame in hard work.
Or Gilbert, son of a drug addict, rescued from abandonment, lived in a car with his father, I’m not telling you anything you don’t know. I’m just saying it’s helpful to remember sometimes that good things can come from hopeless circumstances. And when things start to get good, better appreciate it instead of looking for the other shoe to drop.
Allow yourself to hope. Worst case scenario you get hurt feelings then look to teh enxt season. You strong enough to take it? There’s no prize for being the first to quit on the team. You get no special bonus for the ‘toldja-so’ award. Do you wan the friend who will stick by you no matter what? Or the guy who said, see, you never should have done that in the first place if you only listened to me. Especially when he’s wrong half the time.
Not pointing fingers at anybody, just talking generally. God bless the internet. I’ve said it many times many venues, if Ted Kazcinsky had the internet, there woulda been a few less airports and universities with packages that go BOOM! It’s nice to have a spot to be a whinging pantywaist whiner every now and again. I’m happy to indulge as well, betimes.
But, sheeooot. Give the guys credit for trying. The front office We had a crap backcourt, we added two solid players, now have depth, and a cushion for yougnsters to develop, role-models for them to follow, coaches who can hold their hand and teach them.
Hells, we had Jarvis Hayes and Calvin Booth on the squad when we were tops in the East, way back when. We now have up to seven fair-quality options at 2-guard.; maybe four-five options at small forward. And a skyborne 7 footer who has put on 40 pounds of athletic muscle in 4 years, with the longest standing reach in the league. (JVMcGee was a seven-foot 200-lb Small Forward coming out of high school. He’ was 240 last year, has been working to add 15 pounds of muscle this offseason and says he’s passed the halfway point to that goal).
But we’re fussing about not overpaying for a Mike Ruffin-quality replacement?
All you can ask is constant improvement. That way lies perfection. I don’t see any terrible setbacks in any of this. All we need is a bit of health – -and if we catch hot, if we build on chemistry that was already there, following a bit of time for the roster to adjust to the new system.- – well seems to me on any given night we can beat anybody. Not perfect, but interestingly flawed. With room to get better, and some unpolished potential that could really become something exciting.
Yeah I’d like Blake Griffin. Oh well. But still, JaVale McGee averaged a PER of 15 as a rookie— even while he still has no idea what he’s doing. Gilbert, the workout fanatic, is working with MJ’s personal trainer. Sam Freakin’ Cassell will be tutoring him in all the dirty tricks to succeed. And we just added two 40% shooters from outside.
Personally I’m amped. I’m hyper. Yeah there’s always fear, natural state of the world is that something terrible can always happen, and the team has gathered more than it’s fair share. But if it doesn’t, imagine for a second, just a second, that all comes together at once:
Playing next to Gil we made useful players out of Mr 19% DeShawn, Jared O-Face Jeffries, even Larry Hughes and his piss-poor shooting percentages. Now? If you sag off the shooters to double Gil on the drive you’ve got shooters at 2, 3, 4, and even possibly 5 (if Blatche has been reliably hitting shots like Flip says). Or an alley oop threat, like we’ve never had since Chris Webber was here.
We’ve got prodigious rebounders at every position:
PG: Gil, consistently the second best boardsman at Point. Behind JKIdd. Crittenton similarly solid here.
SG: Mike Miller, best rebounder at the offguard position in the league.
SF: Miller or Caron or Dom
PF: Jamison’s steady double digits. Even Andray has maintained a solid rate. Or Dom.
C: Dray or McGee. Or Haywood at the offensive end, or Haywood on defense forcing the missed shots for the other players to collect.
Ditto assists:
Gil 7 asts
Mike Miller 6 asts
Caron 6 asts
Dom: remarkable assist rate per minute.
Even Dray is willing to pass (needs to cut the TOs). McGee fancies himself a nice passer.
Just saying there are a few tools for a good coach to build with. And we landed the right kind of workshop hobbyist who likes to tinker with his tools and invent something. Never know what exciting discovery we might find. No point renting trouble on layaway. Could be actually something good is happening. we’re just slow to notice.
by doclinkin on Jul 5, 2009 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It’s great to say that we have players better than Booth, Jeffries, Hayes, Hughes however the eastern conference is alot stronger then it was in 2005-06. Cleveland, Boston, Orlando squads now are better than both the current team and circa 2006 team. Abe says he wants to win a championship. Do you honestly believe this squad can deliver? I’m not saying being positive is wrong since this is probably the best Wizards team maybe ever, but what’s “good” isn’t good enough considering the health excuse has been used for about 4 years now and the strength of the opponent. No one here is quitting on the team, foolish do since last season was the bottom of barrel and it can only go up, but I doubt many believe this team can fulfill it’s promised number 1 when healthy bit that’s been thrown out time and time again. Not with the conference as it is now. Especially not if the defense is the same.
I can make a solid case for better defense
Though I’ll have to do it as a thumbnail sketch or the wife will batter me senseless. I’m up too late again:
1. Flip is right: Efficient offense leads to better D. If you score they have to take it out of bounds while you sprint back to set up on D. Better transition D. Better court balance. We added offensive efficiency.
2. Flip is right/ Gilbert is right.
In the past Gilbert said he had to conserve energy on defense because nobody else was scoring, he had to bail out the squad. Every year the team started slow because there would be a defensive emphasis in training camp, we’d have solid D the first 10 games, but be completely inept on offense. Gil would then take it upon himself, we’d start scoring, and winning but have to rely on late-game heroics to do it.
With more efficient scoring, a spread offense, Gil can re-focus on D. Recall that Koach K said Gil’s squad was a lockdown defensive team, unable to bring the ball up court against pressure etc. Gil can play at that end when he sets his mind to it.
3. Now that he’s heard how much better Chris Paul is because he passes first and — yaddayadda ad infinitum. Gil is determined to play set-up man first, then go Hibachi late as needed. Conserves energy there too.
4. Depth is key. Gil can afford to play 35 minutes, and occasionally rest a game. Randy Foye plays like Gil Junior. Ditto 2-guard depth, Small Forward, Center. The PF is less deep, true, and that’s key for us. But Dom will have to get minutes somewhere, and he can actually hold his own in the frontcourt at times.
Depth allows for options. A coach can tinker to maximize line-ups that work best.
Depth also equates to health. Nagging injuries can rest. Players can coast, then find that ’nuther level late in the game or late int he season. reserves of energy for renewed attack or feisty defense. Depth helps you weather injuries. Consider other teams minus their top player, how many will keep winning? Now consider the Wiz, there are a few positions that might survive playing with their second best guy. Enough to tread water anyway.
Also, much of our depth lies in youth. Good thing about young players: at some point they turn into veterans, get better at getting it done. A teaching coach can only help speed up the process.
5. Size: Flip intends to play Big in the zone. The more ground you can cover with minimal effort the better.
Gil/Critt
Miller/Caron/Dom/Nick
Jamison/Caron/Dom
Dray/McGee
Haywood/McGee
That’s a ton of size you can use to mix and match to best advantage.. Once you figure out chemistry of who works best with each other, how you can shade some weaknesses with others’ strengths.
5. Scheme & coaching:
Quite frankly in the recent past our defensive scheme sucked. We’d sag off the perimeter allowing open shots. Double down underneath, even when our bigs didn’t need it. Gamble for steals. Lose our man watching the ball. Those are all simply bad habits.
Flip’s scheme is solid. He’s always had teams in the top half of the league on D. Never leave the dribbler. Guard the interior pass not the lateral pass. Force them to make the extra pass before the shot. Run them off the three point line. Conserve energy by playing the defensive ‘triangle’ to cut off passing lanes and angles. Steal the ball only after stopping penetration, not on the sideways pass.
And for gods sake simply keep your hands up and in someone’s face, not at your sides like a gunfighter trying to sucker them into a steal.
Any of these habits will help a ton. Haywood’s return will help a ton. recall, we beat the world champ Celtics back to back with 4th quarter defense. The talent is there, the habits are lousy. And if they forget, you think Sam Cassell is gonna let them not hear about it? On the bench, on the bus, on the plane, in practice the next day….
6. Defense schmefense.
Heresy, I know, but the fact is you only need a good balance of defense and offense to win in this league. If we’re at or near the top of the league on offense and even above average on defense we’ll contend. I suspect at points in the season we may be within a few games of that top spot.
Defense won’t be the same. I expect our defense to improve no matter what. No we’re not winning the Championship this year. Okay, fine. We can still make a few of the better teams sweat a bit. Play spoiler. And if they catch hot, if they learn the schemes well, if the chemistry develops faster than expected, on any given night they can beat any team in the league.
I like our chances.
i don't see other teams being much better then us when their benches aren't to good
after the starters lebron, mo, west, varajao, shaq. cleveland only has joe smith, ilguaskas, and gibson(depending on how he shoots won’t really be a problem).
Orlando has anderson, peitrus, anthony johnson as their main backups.
boston big baby, eddie house, and possibly sheed
our reserves could match up well with them. mcgee, blatche, dom, foyr/miller, young won’t probably be outplayed by backups
yep. that's what I'm saying.
You don’t want to need depth, but that’s what it is there for. Few teams play great if they lose their top star. But with balanced scoring and a team scheme based on spreading the ball around, assists and ‘hockey assists’, with multiple stars in scoring positions, and back-ups at those key spots, well it’s easier to bear up if a guy has to sit out a stretch.
Boston showed they could battle even without KG, they have stars who have had to carry teams by themselves, and a developing star at floor general. But I don’t see many other teams that could carry themselves as well if their primary star went down.
Granted we’re coming off a 19-win season when our two key players were sidelined. I’m just saying we’re better poised to avoid that right now.
forget Critt?
Ditto assists:
Gil 7 asts
Mike Miller 6 asts
Caron 6 asts
Dom: remarkable assist rate per minute.
Even Dray is willing to pass (needs to cut the TOs). McGee fancies himself a nice passer.
I noticed you left off Crittendon. I guess it’s probably because he has had little playing time to garner a valid average from. But I’m just wondering if anyone else feels the way I do about his potential to be a pretty solid point. Granted, it may not end up being for this team, but I think he has all the tools to do it. He is fast, has good size, and looks to distribute first, second and third. He’s also good going to the hole. If he develops any semblance of a jumpshot, I think he’s legitimate starter material. I see him as being a fast version of Andre MIller. Does anyone share these thoughts?
hmmn... somehow the board ate my response on Critt?
Basically: he turns the ball over too much. Once per 4 tries. And he can’t shoot eFG 14% on threes 23% on jumpers overall. Foye will take all his minutes unless Sammy can build him a useful midrange game at the bare minimum.
I guess
that’s fair. I suppose I’m going on the potential I see, as well as using the Blatche/Young argument that he hasn’t had enough court time to shine, or even clean up his game. I could be wrong, but he seems to have the desire to get better. I saw him in Tapscott’s ear pretty much every time he left the game last year. (Though I’m not sure if that’s a good or bad thing since Tapscott’s obviously not and NBA-caliber coach)
WOW
I’ve never been called a
(sic) whinging pantywaist whiner
before. You sure know how to reign on a bitchers parade, don’t you? JK. That’s good stuff. Hope you don’t mind, but I used your (paraphrasing) “butterfly destroys Barbados” analogy to try and convince my wife that I needed more couch time because of how much work they’re doing in China. DIdn’t go over well.
Anyway, I actually agree with you 100%. It’s probably hypocritical of me to say so, as I have for the most part been one of the more pessimistic posters on here. For me though, I equate it to the theory of “I can say whatever I want about my family, but if an outsider says something bad about them, I’ll kick their ass.” Basically, I have used this site purge whatever bad thoughts I have on the team amongst fellow BulWiz fanatics. I’m not sure how it is for everyone else, but I’ve found that most people I know in this area are fans of other teams, most likely because they’re frontrunners who only back the most popular teams. Because of this, I am constantly forced to vigorously defend any and all things Bullets/Wizards. Us being a less popular (and, frankly, less competitive) franchise puts you at an automatic disadvantage when going against the faux fans of the Lakers, Celtics, Bulls, Knicks, and more recently the Cavs. (funny how there aren’t a lot of Spurs fans, even though they’ve been one most dominant teams over the past decade. Obviously this is due to the fact that Tim Duncan is not a “sexy” star. Just a proven sure-fire winner).
So, forgive me for being the Eeyore of this website, but I do have frustrations I like to vocalize, and me being a Homer as well, I’d rather do so amongst fellow Washington fans than the enemy, thereby not giving said enemies more ammunition to use against my beloved team.
Rec'd
A post like this makes me almost believe that the glory days are coming for the Wizards. Let your words make you a prophet doclinkin.
"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck
by George Templeton on Jul 5, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
The Problem Is ...
When Ernie Grunfeld says he’s looking for a big that “could” play 6-8-10 minutes a game, he is essentially guaranteeing a certain amount of minutes to the likes of Blatche and McGee.
1) What have they done to earn a certain amount of minutes?
2) Are we going to continue to play Jamison at a rate that puts him amongst the league leaders in minutes?
3) Are we increasing Haywood’s minutes? He should not play more than 25-30 minutes per game… but knowing him, he’ll bitch for more.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.
great point
1) not enough
2) hopefully Flip will not feel the need to run his vets ragged.
3) let him bitch, but he needs his fouls preserved as much as he needs rest. To that point, he will probably be forced into fewer minutes anyway from fould trouble if we don’t acquire a legit banger
John Hollinger's 'Player Effectiveness Rating' is set at a PER 15 league average
JaVale, on raw enthusiasm and activity, averaged at PER 17 in his 15 minutes per game. As a know-nothing rookie. With a coach who, let’s face it, was not prepared to occupy his position.
That’s equivalent to, say, Al Horford, Chris Anderson, Carlos Boozer, Emeka Okafor, oh and this Marcin Gortat cat that we’re apparently so excited about. It’s better than Sheed this year. Now does this mean he’s better than the above listed players? No, it means he’s a rookie who shows a ton of promise, and if he’s going to actually develop into a reliable player he needs experience in real-time situations.
What did he do to deserve his spot? He got drafted, and has been working pretty hard. And he’s huge. And athletic. Acts as a funnel to guide offensive rebounds to the basket. And can swat the ball from the sky like badminton, can rebound anything in his area, can shade the paint and still block a perimeter jumper – - something I’ve never seen another player do. The kid has a chance to be a superduperstar, his only limit is his capacity to learn, capacity to work. We’d e criminally stupid not to find minutes for him to do his thing out there. In favor of who? Zaza Pachulia and Marcin Gortat?
No sir. I believe in the future. It’s short-sighted to slight the kid the PT he’ll need to succeed.
And as for Dray. Okay, I can’t help it, I always think his day is just around the corner. He’s put up the league average PER the past couple seasons, nothing great, even playing mostly out of position this past year as the starting center. I suspect his numbers will improve as the back-up at both frontcourt spots.
But like I said, he’s working with KG’s first coach (if not Kevin McHale, sigh) and has been training with Gil all summer. I suspect he’s tired of hearing that he doesn’t work hard enough, and all the ass in DC bars can’t equal the rush from the crowd roaring when you do the thing right. (A debatable point perhaps, I’m happily married so can’t do the research on that one).
At some point you want to earn the respect of your peers and you commit to the work. Dray would be a graduating senior this year, I won’t be surprised when he shows sudden positive consistency in the scheme. He’ll have to. There won’t be a Darius Songaila to bail him out and let him sit.
But I for one count that as a positive thing.
you have
a great argument, and I agree with your assessment on McGee. But I don’t really buy into those projection stats. There are too many variables to consider. I do think McGee should get the bulk of the minutes at backup center, but I think we would be stupid not to have someone with some ass to provide minutes there too. McGee will foul out quick against the likes of Howard and Shaq if he has to guard them for extended times this year.
As for Blatche, while I haven’t completely given up on him yet, I think the ship is close to sailing. He just hasn’t showed the desire to be consistent. Sure, he hasn’t had a coach who will give him the desired minutes, but he could control that by forcing himself into the lineup with consistent play. I also am holding out hope that we use Blatche this year to back up Jamison, where he actually belongs.
No need to hold out hope.
I also am holding out hope that we use Blatche this year to back up Jamison, where he actually belongs.
As of right now there is no alternative. Unless we play Dom or Mike Miller heavy minutes at 4, Dray will be the primary back-up to Jamison. Additionally Flip says he likes to go Big when possible. We will probably see line-ups with Dray next to Jamison.
As for stats. Those aren’t projections. Those are this year’s stats.
As for projections, our pal Kevin Broom has run stat comparisons to guess at his possible future:
Out of curiosity, I ran a search looking for rookie centers with a PER between 16.5 and 17.5 since 78-79. Only 8 guys on the list (in order by minutes per game) — Mutombo, Ewing, Howard, Marc Gasol, Mychal Thompson, Divac, McGee, Muresan.
Pretty good company on that list. Not guaranteeing anything, but certainly suggestive that the kid deserves a good look to see how he develops.
it would seem
that Blatche being the backup PF is a given. I only said that because I have repeatedly seen posts counting him as a backup center. While there is no doubt he will be called into doing this at times, I think his primary position should be PF.
Why, exactly, should Haywood not play more than 25-30 minutes a game?
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
you're right
he shouldn’t. He should play around 35 minutes on average I’d say. I guess I wasn’t really concentrating on the actual minutes. But I think with him being our only true BIG MAN, the temptation to leave him in longer may be greater. I don’t want to see him getting tired and end up virtually useless at the end of the game, and I don’t want to see him in constant foul trouble and therefor unavailable at the end of the game.
My fear is that when we play a team like Cleveland, he will be called upon more than is prudent because they will probably have ‘Z’ backing up Shaq, and McGee just isn’t equipped to handle either one. The shame of that situation is, Brendan really seems to revel in playing against Illgauskus. Which he won’t be doing so much of anymore (unless Shaq goes down, which is highly possible)
Exactly why should Haywood only play 25-30 minutes?
He’d durable, always in great shape and our best defensive option at center. One of the benefits of this season is leaving Eddie Jordan’s odd lineups and substitution patterns behind. Eddie was at times a good coach but he flushed away a ton of games on Etan Thomas and out of position PFs to keep Haywood on the bench. Lets play our best players the minutes they deserve and keep the Michael Ruffins on the bench, instead of playing them out of position in the closing minutesof the 4th quarter.
by NeverNervousPervis on Jul 5, 2009 12:42 PM EDT reply actions
Here, here.
Play Haywood starters minutes…. 34-35 minutes a game. That leaves about 14 minutes for the back-up.
I think we’ll see a completely different substitution pattern this year, from a coach that knows how to keep his best players rested during the season. You won’t see Butler and Jamison playing 40 minutes a night any more. You won’t see a 6’8" guy playing center in the 4th quarter. You won’t see a shooting guard that can’t shoot playing half a year before sitting himself down.
Saunders will surprise a lot of Wizards fans by conserving minutes … providing logical and consistent rotations… giving the bench significant time… and saving wear and tear on the stars.
I’ll also be looking forward to actually having a Professional Head Coach that can draw up an in-bounds play, or a play at the end of a quarter, half or game.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
I didn't see this post when I asked the same question
But you’ve got it covered here.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
very good
I’ll also be looking forward to actually having a Professional Head Coach that can draw up an in-bounds play
and widely overlooked point
there is definetely a plan...
unfortunately that plan isnt to do anything/everything in order to win a title. The plan is to keep everything medium, keep it safe, keep players around that local fans now, and eek out 4th-6th playoff seeds/
It's all a matter of interpretation....
The Wizards have, with the exception of an extra (non-stiff) big body or two, put together a deep roster of players who can score in bunches and defend a bit. They have a good coach (the best since Motta, I think).
And you are right to suggest that this package adds up to playoff contention a smatters now stand… For the rest of 2009 that is probably all we need (assuming we get the big guys we need at a decent prie).
BUT… if the stars align and (1) this roster of Wizards gets out to a decent start, (2) age catches up with the Cetics to the extent that Allen (remember they tried to deal him to the WIzards for the #5 pick) and Garnett can’t produce, (3) the Lebron-Shaq union proves to be at best only marginally better than LeBron-Z and (4) VC fails to be the type of finisher Orlando wants… THEN the Wizards can… and I believe WILL… go for broke with a major mid-year deal to try and steal the Eastern Division crown.
It’s too soon to shoot the moon at this point, but I think the strategy is to put the team in position to go all in if the odds look halfway decent by All-Start Break.
These Details Are Very Important
Total committed salaries for next season are $56.6 Million for 9 players; that’s assuming they tender a qualifying offer to Dominic McGuire and exercise team options on Javaris Crittenton and JaVale McGee (those are good assumptions). Brendan Haywood will probably require $9-10 Million to re-sign. That puts them at about $65.6 Million for 10 players – and they will need to sign at least three more to get to the League mandated 13 roster slots. If they sign two draft picks, or two vet minimum contracts, it would add about $2.5 Million. That puts their 2010-2011 salaries at about $68.1 Million. Even if we assume the Luxury Tax will increase to $73-$74 Million (from $71.15 Million in 2008-09), that still does not leave a lot of room to re-sign Foye or Miller…. So, unless there’s some move to shed salary, it appears to me that the Wizards will be a Tax payer in 2010-11 as well.
I miscalculated these numbers when I used them to support my trade idea for Diop in the FanPosts. I had thought that the total salaries listed in ShamSports for the Wizards included the qualifying offers to McGuire and Foye. I found out that I was wrong when I ran the numbers on my own using a spreadsheet.
This is very disconcerting. If we try to resign Haywood for $10 million per season and then offer Miller or Foye $7 million per season, we will need to dump Stevenson’s contract without taking on any more significant salary for 2010-11 in order to remain under the luxury tax threshold. So there goes my idea for Diop. Here are the positions we would have under salary in this scenario, before dumping Stevenson and signing anyone else:
Center – Haywood, McGee
Power Forward – Jamison, Blatche
Small Forward – Butler, McGuire
Shooting Guard – Miller/Foye (one or the other, not both), Young, Stevenson
Point Guard – Arenas, Crittenton
And we would be over the luxury tax threshold by anywhere from $1-3 million, depending on the exact threshold. So we are going to need to dump Stevenson at some point while not taking back hardly any 2010-11 salary. So those who like me wanted us to acquire a big like Diop, we need to prepare ourselves for a Rasho Nesterovic type being the only option.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Keep in mind that
While Haywood may sign for 10 million a season, he won’t start at 10 million when you factor in 8% raises per year.
I don’t know what he’ll start at (haven’t calculated it yet), but it won’t be 10 million.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
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