McGee's "ceiling"
by CJHutch on Jul 27, 2009 8:38 PM EDT
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PrintIt's been mentioned on here numerous times how the Wizards are full of "young" guys with "potential". I think the guy the majority of us are the most excited about is McGee. After a couple of "fanpost" conversations earlier I read this comment on nba.com:
JaVale McGee, C, Washington
Showcase stats: 4 points, 3 rebounds, 1 block, 2-6 fg
Until Brook Lopez broke out on Saturday, McGee was the best center in camp. He has the potential to be Tyson Chandler with a decent jump shot. He blocked several shots in the three days and finished strong at the rim, but it came in flashes here or there. And he got pushed around a little by Oden and Lopez. ---Posted by: John Schuhmann, NBA.com
I'm curious as to what everyone else thinks JaVale's "ceiling" is. As I've said before, I look at him as a young Marcus Camby. I've posted a video-link below to provide "food for thought" on this opinion. Obviously Camby is a better ball handler/passer, but I don't think those attributes are essential for McGee. I did notice how eerily similar the physical traits are between the two after watching this video.
BTW- I think Cuppetcj will enjoy #8.
This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.
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I think McGee's ceiling is higher
After 13 years in the league, Marcus Camby is 6’11" 235 pounds –
RIGHT NOW… McGee is 7’2" (he may still be growing), and 250 pounds…. * note *
And I think McGee is probably longer than Camby. McGee has a 9’ 6.5" standing reach. That’s the tallest standing reach of anyone measured at the NBA Draft combines in the last 10 years. (except a player named Pavel Podkolzine. He was 7’5" with a standing reach of 9’8" – Drafted by Utah in 2003, but never played in the NBA)
I know McGee is more athletic than Camby – as a matter of fact, McGee shares the best Max Vertical Reach for all Centers measured at the NBA Draft combines at 12’ 3" – he shares that feat with Dwight Howard. If you believe the stories, McGee can dunk on a 12-foot rim (and he claims he can dunk on a 12-6 rim). Now THAT’S athleticism.
So, even though they may have started out with the same body type as Camby (last year, McGee was 7’0", 235 pounds) – McGee has been putting on weight and muscle… At 250 pounds, he should be better equipped to deal with some of the NBA’s bigger Centers… Haywood is 7’0" and 260 pounds, and he can pound with the big boys. But if McGee continues to hit the weight room, and adds 10-15 pounds of muscle next year, and the year after; without losing any of that incredible athleticism……. look out.
I really don’t think there’s any current players you can compare him to. He’s taller and longer than Dwight Howard. He’s more athletic than Camby. He’s faster and more coordinated than Thabeet. So, to say his “ceiling” is to be a Camby type player is probably lowering the bar. I think JaVale has the kind of physical gifts to be a “change the game” kind of player; but he’s got a lot of work to do…. By change the game, I mean like: Wilt changed the game. Doctor J changed the game. Magic changed the game. MJ changed the game.
So I was trying to remember a 7-footer with the kind of athleticism that Javale displays – and the only one I can come up with is Akeem Olajuwon. So there – That’s what I think McGee’s ceiling is = Akeem Olajuwon.
* note * Official NBA measurements are WITH shoes; so if JaVale is 7’1" with no shoes. So if you believe Pam McGee, Javale is 7’2" or 7’3" in shoes (depending on the type of shoe)…
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
WOW
I would kiss your dog on the mouth if McGee became a Dream.
But I was waiting for the “ceiling higher than Camby” comment. That may be true, but I think you’re devaluing Camby a little bit. I know he’s been around the block ALOT, but I would be happy if McGee reached Camby’s caliber. Keep in mind, I’m not saying he WON’T be better, I’m just saying I’d be satisfied with a Camby-esque player. Remember when JaVale 1st came in he was dubbed a “long term project.” Those fizz out more than they work out. As for Camby himself, being injury prone early put a damper on his career. But I remember him from UMass. He was a freak. He may not be a perennial all star, but he is a very good player who has been a big contributor to some very successful teams. He has also stuck around a long time. Like I said, I would be ecstatic with those type of results from Skinny Mac.
Physically maybe...
Physically speaking, McGee’s ceiling is Everest high but I don’t know if his ceiling as far as skills and game instincts are in the same category of Camby or the Dream. Just playing 3 seasons for Calipari before the NBA gives Camby quite a lead in those areas. McGee didn’t have to do anything for his “physical ceiling” and now he’s chirping quite a bit about how hard he is working, but we’ll see if he has the determination to reach his full potential. God isn’t handing him skill and game instincts like he handed him 7 foot 1.
Ceiling is just that... the MAXIMUM that player could become
I’m not saying that McGee will become the next “Dream”…. Nor am I saying he is likely to reach his “ceiling”….
Actually, If you asked me who I think McGee will end up being most like – it would be Camby…
Excellent help defender. Excellent shot blocker. OK jump shooter. Runs the floor well. Good handle.
But that’s a completely different question than “What is McGee’s ceiling” – Because of his physical tools, his ceiling is extremely high… The only way he reaches that ceiling is through hard work – - – - Is he willing to do the work to learn those “skills” and “game instincts”? – - – - – - – - – I don’t know.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Not Dream
I don’t think McGee’s ceiling is Dream. Not only is Hakeem one of the greatest to ever play the game, but he played the game in a totally different way.
People forget that Olajuwon was only 6’9". FYI you can check out this link for reference:
http://www.nba.com/media/1996_627_070822.jpg
Olajuwon was the best big man combination of quickness, footwork, strength, hands, vertical, length, desire, nastiness (on-court) and skill that has ever been in the NBA. Dream was just out of this world in the type of tools that he had to work and I would argue that Hakeem sits alone on the same level as Jordan in the type of tools available to them.
As many tools as McGee has, Dream puts him to shame in that regard.
I think it would be fair to say that McGee’s ceiling is definitely higher than Camby, and if he continues to be dedicated and has the mentality to develop himself into one of the best players in the league, then his ceiling is David Robinson.
McGee’s game is actually very similar to a young David Robinson, except McGee clearly lacks the on-court focus of a younger Robinson (focus as in “this is what I do best”). I’ve watched The Admiral since he was in Annapolis and when he got to the NBA he always knew he was a center and that his mission on defense was to protect the paint and rebound. Offensively he was a face-up guy. Conversely, McGee tries to do a bit too much at this point in this career, and a result, he sometimes walks away without making as much impact as Robinson on either end of the floor.
Also just to be clear, I’m not talking about statistical productivity….I’m talking about the way these players play the game.
Discipline
Sorry, I couldn’t grasp the right word when I was typing my previous post.
Discipline: that’s the word I would use to describe the big difference between a young David Robinson and McGee right now.
Robinson had incredible natural gifts: Long, quick, agile, great leaper, excellent timing, good hands, nice touch. McGee has all of those and is arguably better at some of those.
But Robinson was an extremely disciplined player, even when he was very young, and that level of discipline had a lot to do with why he was so successful early on in his career.
I don't think you're giving D-Rob enough credit
He was one of the five best players in basketball as soon as he came out, and was arguably the second-best player in the league during Jordan’s retirement. The difference between Dream and D-Rob isn’t very big.
My guess is that JaVale’s ceiling is someone a little better than Camby. He’s never going to have the same refined post game that someone like Dream had.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
No I think we're talking about the same thing
We’re talking about ceiling, but we may have different definitions of ceiling.
You’re absolutely right, Robinson was one of the greatest and there’s not much to choose from when picking from Robinson and Olajuwon.
I don’t think JaVale will ever become David Robinson. I’m just saying they have similar physical tools so I consider Robinson as the ceiling.
So I think at the end of the day, David Robinson is his ceiling, but he will ultimately end up as a player who is lesser than Robinson and greater than Camby.
Yeah, we just define JaVale's ceiling differently
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
The Camby-man
Completely agree with this. Camby was The Man in college. I hated UMass back then but he was really amazing.
That said, I could envision McGee doing everything on the defensive end of those clips. I have a harder time with the transition to offense. Camby looks so smooth with the ball. McGee can dribble up the court, yes, but he just isn’t as coordinated or under control. Sure, McGee might yet grow into his body better, but those projections so rarely come true. I still don’t have a better comp to offer though.
I hope McGee is better than Camby defensively
Camby gets a lot of defensive numbers, but doesn’t really make a major impact because he’s never stepping out to guard screen/roll and is too weak to guard a lot of centers.
Offensively, as long as McGee doesn’t shoot as many jumpers as Camby, he can be more effective.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Perfect analysis
Camby’s one of the top help defenders I’ve ever seen, but he’s only mediocre as a man defender. Where he really beats Javale is in rebounding and his ability to avoid making dumb decisions, but that’ll come if he can just focus a bit more. Javale’s already bigger and stronger than Camby, though, and his ability to catch any lob within five feet of the basket makes up for his inability to hit 15 footers like Camby.
by pantslessyoda1 on Jul 28, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Again
we disagree. (Imagine that). I think Camby is, or was, a difference maker on defense. When he went to the Knicks and Ewing got hurt, they didn’t miss a beat. And Ewing was one of the premier post defenders of all time. Of course their styles were different, but Camby had a lot more range. Not too many centers step out to guard the pick and roll. Not successfully anyway. Dream and Robinson were the only ones I can think of that excelled at it. As far as just getting a hand up, Camby did that as well as anyone. But post defense is about controlling the paint, and he did that well too. By the time he got to the Knicks, he was able to spread out in the post a lot better than Ewing. And as far as actual strength, I’ll hold out until the season before admitting McGee is stronger. Camby may be wiry, but he’s wiry strong. Maybe not in college, but as his career has progressed, he’s gotten stronger. Naturally. Now college was a different story. I think he was one of the most dominant centers ever in college. He controlled games from the middle.
Ewing wasn't a premier post defender when he was 37 and couldn't move anymore
As to more on Marcus’ defense, I encourage you to read this post from former SB Nation blogger Jeremy Wagner about Marcus. He correctly said the Camby trade wouldn’t hurt the Nuggets last year and he knows that stuff better than me.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
in '99
Ewing was blocking almost 3 shots a game and getting 8 defensive boards a game. As a matter of fact, his numbers, were almost exactly the same as Dwight Howards last year, the D.O.Y.
I’ve said plenty of times that the post play in the 80’s-90’s dwarfs that of today, and this supports that statement.
As for the Camby post, I believe I mentioned a couple of times that I was talking about a younger version of Camby when making the McGee comparison.
I’m in full agreement with the description of Camby for his play over the last couple of seasons in LA and in Denver … but the guy was a defensive monster when he was playing with the New York Knicks under Jeff Van Gundy.
Back then, Camby was an excellent pick and roll player and played superb team defense instead of just padding his blocked shots stat column. A game changer defensively and one of the finest interior defenders in the league at the time.
Sui generis
I don’t disagree with your 1:1 to comparisons, but the flip sides of those are that he isn’t as strong and explosive as Howard, he isn’t quite as coordinated and fluid as Camby, and he’s easier to push around than Thabeet.
I would love it if he could develop some Dream tendencies on offense, but he has a looooong way to go there. He’d need vastly improved balance and footwork. The footwork I could maybe see, the balance is harder to imagine.
Growing
Actually Pavel played around 6 games for the Mavericks, needless to say it didnt work out. But i know Mcgee’s doctors said he was possibly still growing but i hope not. 7’2/7’3 or even 7’4 as you said would be pushing it. I know most centers get injured but when you start going up past 7’2 the injuries start to get more severe see:
-Zydrunas Ilgauskas
-Yao Ming
-Ralph Sampson
-Rik Smits
I must say I'm surprised
I just went fishing for comps and one of my attempts to just get a list of names to think about was to check for 7’+ centers who debuted since 1988. I ranked the list by PER. Among guys who played 600+ minutes, McGee had the 10th best PER as a rookie. The top seventeen:
Robinson (debuted at age 24—I forgot how good he was right out fo the gate though)
Sabonis (age 31, really doesn’t belong here. just wish he’d gotten to the nba earlier)
Shaq
Yao
Ilgauskas
Oden
Brook Lopez (other than Shaq, the only player younger than McGee)
Divac
Gheorghe!!!!
McGee
Marc Gasol (age 24)
Motumbo (age 25)
Stanley Roberts
Zeljko Rebraca (age 29)
Roy Hibbert
Rik Smits
Andrew Bogut
Of the guys on this list, none seem like very good comps from a physical/style standpoint. Except, does anyone here remember Stanley Roberts before the achilles injury and drug suspensions? Cause he looks pretty similar in the #s, and all I remember of him is the someone overweight but talented guy with the drug problem. I guess it doesn’t matter anyway, since his career doesn’t tell us much.
Back to the drawing board.
More fodder for discussion
http://secretwizards.wordpress.com/2009/06/01/the-future-of-javale-mcgee-part-2/
From the standpoint of size/athleticism, I don’t like many of these as fits. Stro Swift seems a little similar, but Vale had a much more successful rookie year.
If I had to pick a HOF-er
I’ll go with Robert Parish. Now, I certainly don’t remember him at all before age 30, but based on what I can remember of him before he got really old, the physical comparison doesn’t seem so far off. Could he jump when he was young?
His rookie season was one of the most closely comparable to Javale’s of anything I’ve seen. Parish rebounded better, but then he was two years older and that turned out to be one of the statistically best rebounding seasons of his entire career, so I’m not too hung up on that.
Here are Vale’s, Camby’s, and Parish’s rookie seasons:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/tiny.cgi?id=bumI4
What about his hands?
Mcgee has fantastic off the chart measurements everywhere you look. One measurement that isn’t taken is hand size. Phil Jackson once said the only difference between Kobe and Jordan is Jordan had some wonderful mits. A big guy as long as he is who can palm the ball with either hand would be unguardable. I know he has pretty good hands because he isn’t dropping passes left and right like Kwame. Where do you think his hands stack up with the Wilt, Kareem, Olajuwon, and Robinson in terms of size and quality?
Unfortunately
There’s no public database of hand sizes, so we can’t measure that statistically. We just have to go on subjective comparisons with that.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Subjectively...
where do you think he stacks up?
by forthepeople on Jul 28, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
JaVale has really large hands...
Long, long fingers… just like the rest of him. No problem palming the ball with either hand… However, a big hand can negatively affect the jump shot…
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
If you look at that picture long enough
His hand starts to look freakish
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
To me the hand looks normal.
But the ball keeps getting smaller and smaller…
by MR on Jul 28, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
The ball
That ball does look tiny and his hands look bigger than Sheeds. In terms of his jump shot, he should only be using it sparingly anyways. I want to see way more jump hooks than jump shots. Hopefully, his set shot free throw percentage can go up. He has sound fundamentals when he shoots.
He will NEVER be the Dream (No Offense)
Dont get me wrong, im a die hard Wiz fan and i ride for everyone on the team. Im also a huge Mcgee fan and think he has a tremendous amount of potential. But you cant throw out the dream’s name casually like that. He’s a guy you can make the argument of best big man all time. The way the game is today, if someone is going to be that kind of special (HOF caliber) you’ll know almost immediately, especially a big man, whose situation is more black and white than every other. Mcgee has a chance to be very good but unless he has a all star caliber year next year, i dont envision him HOF good.
Yeah, the Dream stuff is a bit over the top
Interesting you mention Ralph Sampson … there’s a guy who’s career was screwed up because his coach took him away from the basket. That and injuries, but I think that was the first shoe dropping.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
?
I didnt mention Ralph Sampson for anything except comparisons of injuries for big men around his height. Had nothing to do with their style of play.
I was referring to the comment below this where you dropped his name
I guess I misunderstood the purpose.
Nevertheless, Sampson is a pretty good comp to me.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Ok
But what do you think JaVale’s “ceiling” is…?
Perhaps I misunderstand what everyone thinks “ceiling” means…
In this case, I thought ceiling meant the upper limit of his potential. The player he could become if he maximized every ounce of his upside and potential. Ceiling meaning the player JaVale could be compared to (body type, athleticism, etc…) IF he put forth ultimate effort to achieve maximum results.
As I said before, I looked for guys over 7ft – that were long, fluid, athletic, could run the floor like a guard (that rules out Shaq), and had tremendous vertical ascendancy. There’s not many of those kind of players
I ruled out David Robinson, because he started his career late… (and the fact he grew 7 inches in the Naval Academy) – and I’m not sure how that affected his career. I ruled out Bill Russell mainly because Bill was never a very polished Offensive player. Patrick Ewing has a different (stronger) body type. Same with Wilt. Robert Parish was too mechanical (no one could call him “fluid”). I thought about Kareem, but I don’t think he had the vertical or can run like JaVale does. Tim Duncan? Can anyone honestly say that Tim Duncan is a PF? But still, I wouldn’t consider Duncan “athletic”, nor does he have a 33" vertical…
I ended up with Dwight Howard, Camby and Akeem Olajuwon. I ruled out Howard, since he’s still improving.. How can JaVale reach a ceiling of Dwight Howard when that ceiling is still being raised. I think that JaVale can be better than Camby ever was. (emphasis on CAN BE – as in, has the chance to be better ). So JaVale’s “ceiling” in my opinion is higher than Camby.
That left me with Akeem Olajuwon. A true 7ft Center with athleticism, foot speed, and leaping ability. (sorry formula0, but I have go go with the official NBA Bio page on this one – Olajuwon was 7-feet tall. Besides, standing next to 7’1" Shaq, and 7’1" David Robinson in that picture, Olajuwon looks every bit of 7-ft…. ).
Will JaVale McGee ever be as good as Olajuwon was? Probably not.
Can he ever be as good? Is there a remote possibility? Only if the stars align, he works his tail off, has the right teachers and Coaches, makes ALL the right decisions, and gets extremely lucky with the teams he plays for – then perhaps.
So that’s how I came up with my opinion on JaVale’s ceiling.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
A ceiling doesn't have to be a comp to a specific player
This is what gets silly about making comparisons between players. We either have to go way over the top (Olajuwon) or shoot way under (Camby).
I think the pre-injury Sampson when he played with Hakeem (84-87) is a good ceiling for JaVale, actually. Admittedly, I haven’t given that much though.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I think Dream is not an out of the question ceiling
To be honest, I think McGee has no ceiling. His likelihood of matching these Hall of Famers is low. Not a knock on him, but they are the greatest players ever. I just think he has the talent and physical ability to be the best. He just needs the skill, intelligence, discipline, consistency, and determination to match.
May sound outrageous, but he has the tools to be the best big ever. But just because you have the tools, doesn’t mean you’re gonna build the Sphinx.
McGees's measurables
Did he really get up to 250? If so thats great, i dont think he needs to go over 255, that way he can manage most centers and still always have the atheleticism adavantage. Olajuwon was 255 and the GOAT Kareem was only 225. Also a guy he’s been compared to Tyson Chandler is only 235 and he’s pretty good against centers when healthy.
.I know his doctors said he may still be growing but Ralph sampson
Camby's a poor role model...
Statistically he looks good, and he’s smooth with the ball in those highlights, but in his long career has Camby started on (or even been on) a single 50-win team? I can’t remember any. Not something I would expect to see from a quality center (which Javale has the potential to become).
Consider this…Camby and Duncan appeared similarly talented when Camby was in college, but I think San Antonio’s worst year with Duncan may have been better than the best team Camby’s played on. Any chance McGee can learn to play more like Tim?
camby vs. mcgee
camby has high bball iq.
mcgee has yet to develop it
I do think Condor will develop those smarts but will need experience. has benefit of pedigree and a mamma who will woop him if he doesn’t.
by ucantstopbernard on Aug 6, 2009 12:52 AM EDT reply actions
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