What to expect from Blatche
by steadyhand on Jul 16, 2009 2:05 PM EDT
16 comments
I put some of this on a comment yesterday, but it was on a post that fell off the front page an hour later, so I doubt many people saw it. Because I put some effort into putting the numbers together, I figured I'd go ahead and try posting this separately. Forgive me if you've seen this already.
I've heard (or rather, read) that a lot of fans are giving up on Blatche. I think that’s premature. Blatche has improved every year. That includes last year in my opinion -- I think some of his stats took a hit because he was playing more against starters, but his passing and ball handling SKILL seemed improved (I'm not talking about decision-making -- that's what I hope he improves next -- I just mean skill) . That's just my opinion based on watching him play, but his assist and turnover numbers back me up. Below the jump I provide statistical averages for high school-to-NBA players. These numbers suggest that we should expect to see continued improvement from Andray.
Blatche entered the NBA straight out of high school, so you can’t compare him to other four-year NBA players or even compare him to other NBA players by age. The best thing you can do is look at other guys drafted out of high school. So, I looked at all the other NBA players drafted out of high school since 1995 and found that 15 players played in a significant portion of games in each of their first six seasons. Following is a table of what these players averaged in the league over those six seasons for the standard positive statistical categories. I've left out anyone who experienced a major injury (Stoudemire, Livingston, etc.) or didn't play more than a few games in any one year.
First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Pts 5.9 9.3 11.3 13.3 14.6 16.3 Rbs 3.0 4.4 5.5 5.7 6.6 7.0 Asts 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.6 Stls 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 Blks 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 TOs 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 ShEff 44.3% 47.8% 46.5% 47.1% 50.1% 51.4% Minutes 14.3 20.9 25.9 27.4 29.4 31.6
What we see here is that these players continue to improve through their sixth year in the league. Yes, you can find exceptions, but when you're trying to predict the future you should focus on aggregates, not anecdotes. I think we’ll see the same thing with Blatche over the next two seasons and have a pretty good player entering his prime. Maybe not an all-star, but better than what he is now and a tremendous bargain under his current contract.
Late addition:
As requested, here are the PER 36 MINUTES stats for the same group. (I've added TOs and ShEff above to be consistent - I also noticed that Jonathan Bender only played 7 games in his sixth season, so now it's 15 players.)This definitely washes out a lot of the apparent improvement, although the general pattern persists. It's actually amazing how little the numbers improve even from year 1 when you adjust for playing time.
First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Pts 14.8 16.0 15.7 17.5 17.9 18.5 Rbs 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.5 8.1 8.0 Asts 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 Stls 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 Blks 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 TOs 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 ShEff 44.3% 47.8% 46.5% 47.1% 50.1% 51.4% Mins 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.0
This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.
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For the record
The lazy/selfish/bad for team chemistry bit is from grumblings I’ve heard from others. To the extent that I think he’s shown these qualities, I’m willing to attribute it to age.
by steadyhand on Jul 16, 2009 2:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
More burn
I’d be interested to see that table you made either with minutes per added to it, or with the counting stats you have expressed in per-36 or something similar. What matters more for the evaluation of whether Bulletproof might be expected to further improve is whether those guys kept producing progressively more, not whether they played more. With those counting stats, the progression could just be from having spent more time on the court.
by bwoodsxyz on Jul 16, 2009 3:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Valid point
That shouldn’t be too hard — I’ll just have to input minutes and do the conversions. I’ll do that when I get the time. Of course, one factor to consider in per-minute calculations is that guys getting less burn are frequently matching up with lower-quality opposition. I don’t know of an easy way of sorting that out.
by steadyhand on Jul 16, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Coaching coaching coaching.
I think we’ll see real steps out of Blatche this year AFTER Flip has some time to develop him. As we’ve seen already, this new coaching staff seems to actually take time to develop the young players and give them actual guidance, instead of just sitting them as quickly as possible. Blatche hasn’t had this type of direction his entire NBA career. Its early now, but I think it’ll pay dividends by the end of the year.
The Washington Wizards: providing career scoring nights for unknown opposing bench players since 2004.
by mamemimo on Jul 16, 2009 4:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think
it is way too early to give up on Blatche. That seems to be the landscape of sports these days. We’re way too quick to give up on players. As I said in the other “discussion” on Blatche, plenty of players take 4-5 years to develop. The easy example is Turkoglu, since he was a headliner in the playoffs this year. Blatche’s year four numbers are better than Turkoglu’s were. Blatche IS getting better. His problem is that his special talent is evident, so he is thought of as underachieving.
Now, all that said, I do get frustrated as hell with his laziness, and I think it needs to be ground out of him soon or we SHOULD ship him out.
by CJHutch on Jul 16, 2009 7:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I chose option 3
He can get better as he becomes more disciplined, but I don’t think his per-40s and PER will really get that much better, mostly just because he’s not particularly athletic and he’s already got decent moves and a reasonably good jumper.
by pantslessyoda1 on Jul 16, 2009 8:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Added some more info to the post
In response to bwoodsxyz’s good point about count improvements being confounded with playing time, I added per 36 minute figures.
I also added TOs and ShEff while I was at it.
by steadyhand on Jul 16, 2009 8:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think alot of the frustration
is not the fact that people didn’t see him gradually improving so much as they just don’t see him ever getting his head straight enough to be more than average. He has everything physically a player could need to be dominant it’s just really obvious he doesn’t take it seriously. And that hasn’t seemed to be improving even one bit. Thats what leads to people throwing their hands up imo. Simply by being in the NBA and getting more minutes he has slowly been improving but his head hasn’t seemed to get better. I remain optimistic he has turned over a new leaf though. Excellent post Steady.
by BayAreaBullet on Jul 16, 2009 10:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not to criticize your post too much
because I like the idea, but I would have strictly limited your comparisons to post players, getting rid of the guards. The skill sets and responsibilities for guards versus big men are so different….
Getting buckets since 2003.
by Icantfeelmyface on Jul 17, 2009 12:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I wanted to do that
I would have liked to use only post players, but there’s just not enough of them.
by steadyhand on Jul 17, 2009 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
H
He’ll always be 3 parts tease 1 part production. Coach Thompson tells players “Don’t show me you can do something, do it. Do it every time.” Blatche just likes to make an occasional highlight pass or shot then he fades back into his routine of terrible choices and fade away jump shots of the dribble aka the worst shot in basketball.
I expect his number to tick up, 12 pts, 6 boards. If they do run the offense through him his turnovers will surpass his assists instead of his usual 1:1 ratio. For what he makes, he’s not killing the cap so no biggie there. The main problem I have is that he is seen as the first Big off the bench. Look at the front court depth of EC teams chasing the title and compare it to Washington’s, with Blatche out front. Ouch.
by Jheiser3 on Jul 17, 2009 8:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
dont give up on Blatch
see where he is at in another 2 years before that happens. either way, he comes cheap, can run and he’s 6-11.
by GeoFly on Jul 21, 2009 10:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
besides
whats wrong with 12 pts 6 boards from a backup?
by GeoFly on Jul 21, 2009 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
20 Points 10 Boards One Night, 4 Points 2 Boards the Next
whats wrong with 12 pts 6 boards from a backup?
Nothing, as long as it’s one of Blatche’s good games. But if I’m a coach of a championship contending team, I don’t want to roll the dice every time I put in my backup power forward.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
by cuppettcj on Jul 21, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
its always fun to read
the pretty wide range of opinions of andray blatche’s future. optimists think he has the raw physical talents and athleticism of a lamar odom type while doubters compare him to our last pick out of high school, one kwame brown
as for questions as to whether or not blatche can play meaningful minutes on a playoff team, how forgetful we all are that blatche played pretty well, abeit somewhat inconsistently, on a playoff team in 07-08, entrusted with duties as primary backup center in replacement of etan thomas
as for whether or not blatche will mature and turn the corner and realize his potential, its a toss up at this point. i’m pretty encouraged by his relationship with new coach flip saunders, as blatche was often in eddie’s doghouse, but am at the same time still troubled by memories of stories of him eating chips before a game in 06-07, and images of him passing gas on the bench in a wizards game early last year
by kingofthebench on Aug 8, 2009 3:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Andary Blatche= Stupid
He has the potential of becoming a “good” player, but he makes terrible decisions. I mean his 6’11, and he attempts to play like a guard.
by 6ft1height on Aug 8, 2009 4:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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