It's Make or Break Time for Andray Blatche

by JakeTheSnake on Jun 28, 2009 2:05 AM EDT in Player Analysis Comment 39 comments

The opinions on Andray Blatche within the Wizards fanbase are as varied and inconsistent as Andray's on-court production. Some see a 22 year old who is that close to having a breakout season and just needs to be given a little more time to realize the potential that we've all seen glimpses of at different point in his career. Others see a player coming off his 4th NBA season who has been given too many chances to put all of his gifts together.

No matter where you stand on the Andray Blatche debate, everyone can agree that the only person whose opinion truly matters in the situation is Ernie Grunfeld's. Grunfeld traded away his main competition for playing time, Darius Songaila, this week and didn't bring in another player to challenge him in the front court rotation. At least not yet. But that doesn't mean that he doesn't still have his reservations when it comes to Andray.

In all of the draft hoopla, this quote from Ernie to (the much more optimistic as of late) Tom Knott regarding Andray deserves some extra attention:

Grunfeld remains ever hopeful with Blatche, a 6-foot-11 talent with a history of shrinking from his duties. That has been chalked up to his immaturity, a condition Brendan Haywood eventually overcame.

"We like Andray," Grunfeld said. "I don't expect him to have a great game every game. That is what you expect from the great players in this league. I knew Patrick Ewing was going to be great 76 games a year. Good players in this league might be great in two out of four games. With Andray and with his ability to shoot and handle the ball... is he someone who can get 12 to 14 points, eight to 10 rebounds a game? But I agree. The jury is still out on Andray. It's up to him."

It's not exactly the most ringing endorsement ever given, but clearly Ernie still believes in Andray. If it wasn't the case, he would have either packaged him in the Minnesota deal or made a more immediate move to find someone who can fill in when Andray struggles. Barring an unexpected trade, he's showing enough trust in Blatche to make him a primary backup in the 2009-10 season, a role that he's never been fully entrusted with before now. Sure, there have been times when he's been called to do that and more in the last two seasons, but only when injuries necessitated such action. This is the first time that he's been given a vote of confidence before the season began. If he isn't careful, it might be his only chance.

As we all know, with great trust comes great responsibility. In the past, Andray could have made the case that he deserved more minutes than he received. With Songaila out of the way, there are no more excuses. The pressue is now on Andray's shoulders to make the most of this chance to prove to the judge and the jury what he can be.

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there's always

the chance Blatche becomes the next Jermaine O’Neal. Took him 4 years to show ANYTHING. Of course, when he finally did it was for another team. Bad example.

by CJHutch on Jun 28, 2009 2:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

For Blatche to make the same kind of leap

he’d have to be an all-star. O’Neal went from 4 to 13 points, 3 to 10 rebounds, and 1 to 3 blocks. Blatche was good for 10, 5 and 1 last year. If he just does like most of the guys who were drafted out of high school did and improves in year 5 then he should be a very good backup 4.

by steadyhand on Jun 28, 2009 3:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

O'neal's problem

was getting minutes. There was a general consensus that he’d be very good. His minutes/game were 10, 13, 9, 12. Then he was traded and went straight to 32.

by MR on Jun 28, 2009 7:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

Hardly anyone has a breakout year when their previous per-40 averages didn’t show they were capable of it. At the same time, in ’Dray’s defense, his numbers paint the picture of someone who could put up 14-8 if given 30-35 minutes a game, which is actually not that bad, and if he just shows some intensity, he could easily be putting up 16-10 if AJ gets hurt.

by pantslessyoda1 on Jun 28, 2009 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Andray needs to get his head in the game

He has many physical gifts and he never looks nearly as lost as Kwame did. I can remember how Kwame would make 2 good dribbles and explode toward the basket only to realize that in mid-air he had NO CLUE how to finish.

Andray doesn’t have these problems, but he does float through games and drift mentally. If he can actually be serious, give full effort, and not get down on himself when things don’t work out well he should really be very good.

There is still time to prove that Andray Blatche represents one of the best contract situations for a player of his abilities in the whole league. Knucklehead or not, I can’t believe we have 3 more years of a 6 foot 11 forward who can run the floor, handle the ball, distribute capably and shoot decently who is also only 22 all for an average of around $3.3m/yr.

by Manimal Smith on Jun 28, 2009 2:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Again?

Damn this drum is worn out … but it still makes some noise, so why not keep beating it?

Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.

by Truth About It on Jun 28, 2009 5:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I am tired of this refrain from fans

I would hope that young players improve every year, and not regress. I’m not sure what you can expect above and beyond that, and Andray has lived up to that standard. Yet some are always calling or even demanding that a particular young player have a “breakout year.” If only we could schedule how and when we make great advancements in life.

It seems to me that Andray has lived up to his contract and is a solid backup PF/C. Jake is correct that the backup role is firmly on his shoulders this season (unless a veteran big is signed to fill-in if he fails.) With his talents, can he do more? Sure. But he’s 22, still the third youngest guy on the team. Give the guy some time. It sounds like he has been working hard this summer, so we’ll see.

by disgrunted on Jun 28, 2009 7:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My thoughts exactly

I think that we expect a bit too much from him, and no one in the media seems to give him credit when he does improve. This year he learned to stop fouling and made a lot fewer dumb turnovers as the year went on, but all I hear about when it comes to Blatche is immaturity and laziness. He’s quietly gotten stronger over the last year, and he’s got good chemistry with Young and McGee. His defense needs to improve, and he needs to stop trying to take his man off the dribble for jumpshots, but I think it’s fair to chalk some of this up to him playing out of position as not just a center, but as a starting center. I’m actually relatively comfortable with him as our backup center since he’d mostly be going against guys like Magloire and Patrick O’Bryant and Amir Johnson and Kwame and a bunch of other guys who aren’t really big scorers, but I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect him to be able to guard Shaq or even Illgauskus.

by pantslessyoda1 on Jun 28, 2009 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The problem is not Andray's talent and statistical improvement

… it’s his heart and toughness which we all expect to be better.

Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.

by Truth About It on Jun 28, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

if you just want 12-14 pts, 6-8 rebounds from him, fine. That’s a pretty decent backup, which we need. Where the frustration lies, in my opinion, for a lot of people is that they see All star talent in him. If he had the intensity, he could be elite. He’s getting by on ability alone. As was stated, he will probably be the first big off the bench this year, so that ability should get him a decent double double pretty much every game. But if you add intensity and hard work to that ability, then it’s a whole different situation. I remember Jamison stating 3 years ago that Blatche would be pushing him out of a job soon. While he was kidding, I think there is some truth to it. He SHOULD be pushing for a starting job.

by CJHutch on Jun 28, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes and no

I agree that the reason fans get down on him is that they see All Star talent in him, and they see that he’s not the hardest worker in the world. But two comments about that:

1. If Andray were the hardest worker in the world and was an elite player, he wouldn’t be with the Wizards. He’d be with some other team making $9 of $10 million a year. (By the way, I think it’s a little awkward to criticize Blatche and then clamor for the signing of Rasheed Wallace, the King of untapped potential.)

2. They say that for every one NBA player, there are ten with the same amount of talent who never made it because of work ethic, inconsistency, behavior, immaturity, etc. Blatche came to the NBA straight out of high school and has managed to stick. That is a pretty great achievement which likely could not have happened without a good bit of work and sacrifice on his part. Not enough work and sacrifice to tap all of his potential perhaps, but let’s not lose sight of his accomplishments either.

by disgrunted on Jun 28, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm

OK with that assessment overall, but I do think it’s a little bit of a copout to say that he ‘s “managed to stick.” There are a lot of guys who’ve "managed to stick, and most of them are around 7 feet. Hell if you look at it that way, Kwame has “managed to stick.” But there’s a difference between the two. Brown has the all the tools; perfect NBA body, size, strength, speed. Blache on the other hand, while having good size, does NOT have the strength or even the speed. But he’s got talent. More than Kwame. All star talent, at that.

Now, as I indicated before, if he chooses to use that talent to be a very good 6th man and perhaps an eventual starter, great. That is a perfectly fine career. BUT, if he decides he wants to be one of the best, he can do it. I like to use two different examples for this argument. You mentioned Rasheed Wallace. Yes, he has not always maximized his potential. But he’s been a vital cog in a championship team. That’s nothing to sneeze at. The better analogy is Derrick Coleman. This guy had the tools AND talent to be one of the best ever, but he decided to waste it, getting by on talent alone while being a bonehead in the process. The other end of the spectrum is Charles Barkley. Yes, Barkley had ridiculous strength and freakish jumping ability. But he DIDN’T have the size. He didn’t always have all the talent either. What he DID have was the WANT. His drive and determination is what set him apart.

Now, is Andray Blache ever going to be on the level of a Charles Barkley? Highly doubtful. And maybe he never even gets to the numbers Coleman put up. But I’d like to see him try to get the best out of what he’s got. For us, of course.

by CJHutch on Jun 28, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Coleman>>>>Blatche

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jun 28, 2009 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whoop-de damn do.

by MR on Jun 28, 2009 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perfect Response!

Made my day. What a head case Coleman was…

by YellaFella on Jun 29, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Brown has the all the tools

Does hands the size of a preteen girl count as one of his tools?

by DT711 on Jun 29, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Rec'd

Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.

by Truth About It on Jun 29, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK

so his toolbag is short one set of mans-hands. Oh, and a heart. (There’s probably a Wizard of Oz joke in there somewhere, but I’m not quick enough for it) Anyway, you get my drift. Kwame is, as Mike Golic likes to say, an ‘Off the bus player.’ He looks great getting off the bus, but that’s about it.

by CJHutch on Jun 29, 2009 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

big guys take time to develop. the kid is still young, hold on to him and give him a few years.

by theintz on Jun 28, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This team can't take more time for developing

All 5 of our youngsters can’t be in our future plans. We’re going to have more draft picks every year and not all of our vets are at the end of their careers. When are the young guys supposed to take this next step?

I think now is a great time to trade Dray for an upgrade that can contribute immediately. We need someone who can help us win a championship now and if I have to choose which big man we are going to keep for development, give me McGee.

by gorebd on Jun 28, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's not just about that

You can’t overpay too much with our tax situation, so it doesn’t make all that much sense to replace a guy who produces the same as the $3 million guy with a $6 million guy. That’s what got Ernie in this predicament.

It’s not smart to trade Dray now, not when his value is lower than it was at midseason.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jun 28, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

andray could take ilguaskas

by wizchamp on Jun 28, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Expectations game

In the “List Your Biases” thread, my first was that I’m a big Andray Blatche fan. The guy is skilled. I would love to see him have that breakout year, but I think he already is a capable back up center. I just looked at his career numbers versus Etan Thomas and there’s no question that we’re better off with Blatche at the backup. Now I suspect that a lot of the negative feelings toward Andray are because he has the talent to become much more than a backup and hasn’t reached his potential yet. He may never get there and if not, that’s too bad. But at the moment, he’s doing ok (not great I admit) at his present role. And his salary matches that backup role.
I’m hoping that the coaching change will help. A consistent role and consistent minutes may do wonders for his confidence. (same for Nick Young)

by hotplate on Jun 28, 2009 8:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

When Andray gets in the Zone...

he is a very fine player indeed…. Unfortunately he spends too little time in that Zone and too much on-court time in a mirror universe.

I had fully expected to see him traded with the 5-pick this month, but apparently Ernie and Flip have decided to roll the dice with him as a key frontcourt player. Right now he is the top frontcourt reserve on the depth chart… which of course could change with a major acquisition (i.e. someone worthy of being paid at the mid-level exception level). We will learn a great deal more about exactly how much faith the brain trust has in Andray based on who else they bring in. If its someone on the level of Rasho Nesterovic, then we can assume that Andray is penciled in for some pretty high untilization, maybe 20-25 mpg partly at the 5 and partly at the 4. If they spring for Zaza or the Polish Hammer, then Andray is more of a 10-15 minute man backing up AJ.

by khrabb on Jun 28, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I remember when he hit a three then next time around broke his slower defender with a crossover and finished a great looking layup. Then he posted up a smaller player and just shot over him. So versatile. Of course that’s counteracted with so many bad memories and poor poor decision making.

by Fundefined on Jun 28, 2009 11:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Trade Value

He’s an intriguing talent, that’s for sure. And it can more time than usual for some players to reach their “sweet spot” such as Lamar Odom Boris Diaw or Jermaine O’Neal. I would wonder if one more year of the norm would completely ruin Blatche’s value.

Does he still have any value? Are teams still asking about him? Can you afford to roll the dice and hope he figures it out this year. I don’t know, maybe teams will still be enamored with him because he’s a versatile front court player, but I’d rather let him go in a package and get something else.

by Natepyatt on Jun 28, 2009 3:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He MUST have trade value

He is an athletic, 6-foot-11 power forward who can shoot and pass and is slated to make $3m, $3.3m and $3.6m in the next three years. His contract is a DREAM for someone with his talent – his choice to be a John probably saved us $5m-$7m AT LEAST.

by Manimal Smith on Jun 28, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey, visiting from the Kings SBN blog Sactown Royalty

And I’m wondering what Wizards fans think it would take to pry Blatche away. Since this team seems to be positioning itself to win now, is flirting with the lux tax, and already has another young big to develop in McGee, what sort of package do you think would tempt Grunfeld? Also, is Blatche purely a PF, or do you think he can play the C when he’s got his head screwed on tightly?

by furious.d on Jun 28, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He isn't a C at all

He can play desperation spot duty there, but its obviously out of position for him.

I don’t think the Wiz are interested in anyone on the King’s roster (except maybe Martin, Hawes and Thomspon). If we were going to dump him to you it would probably be for a first round pick and filler salary.

by Manimal Smith on Jun 28, 2009 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's produced far better at the center position than the PF position throughout his career

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jun 28, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

also

He can play the 3 also. IMO

by Unkle Wheez on Jun 28, 2009 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And played more minutes there.

I don’t understand the obsession with making him a PF.

by Aldo on Jun 28, 2009 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I thought

he started in place of Haywood a lot last season…?

I guess that the best way I can think to form this question is: Can he give you 20 minutes guarding a solid NBA center (say, Andrew Bogut) and hold his own? Can he be the first big off the bench at either the 4 or 5?

by furious.d on Jun 28, 2009 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes and yes IMO.

I think if we didn’t have Blatche we’d be looking to acquire someone just like Blatche: Can play 4 or 5, cheap, athletic. Would help if he were stronger, but that’s the trade-off. I think he’s a good fit for us if we can also get a cheap 5 with muscle who can rebound and defend as well as foul Howard and Shaq 6 times a game.

by MR on Jun 28, 2009 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs