John Hollinger's draft rater comes out

It's Insider, so to recap:

-The system really loves Ty Lawson. Like, loves him in that he's neck and neck with Blake Griffin as the best prospect out there period. (Actually, Lawson is ahead of Griffin, though that's not to say Lawson should go first, because point guards are harder to project according to Hollinger).

-The system ranks Austin Daye fourth for some reason.

-The system hates DeMar DeRozan. He didn't even crack the top 50!

-It also doesn't like Jordan Hill much (26th)

-Other notables: Tyreke Evans (3rd), Stephen Curry (5th), DeJuan Blair (7th), James Harden (10th), Hasheem Thabeet (11th).

over 2 years ago Mike Prada 9 comments 0 recs |

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Pace?

Any idea if his formula includes adjustment for pace? I would think that would account for the elevation of Ty Lawson and Danny Green.

Green looks more and more like a late first round pick to me.

by Jheiser3 on Jun 18, 2009 3:59 PM EDT reply actions

How accurate is his projector?

Like, does it usually do a good job of predicting how players wind up doing?

by pantslessyoda1 on Jun 18, 2009 4:45 PM EDT reply actions

02-08 Draft Rater

via ESPN Insider

Even though Kevin Love topped the 08 list, I think I know why he tweaked it so much from last year:

Top 10 drafted collegians not in Rater’s top 12: O.J. Mayo, Russell Westbrook, D.J. Augustin, Eric Gordon, Brook Lopez

by Jheiser3 on Jun 18, 2009 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions

It has missed a few

But also nailed some big time guys – for example (from the article):

The Draft Rater also has spotted some of the biggest steals in recent years:

• Carlos Boozer was the 26th collegian taken in 2002; Draft Rater had him second.

• Josh Howard was 17th in 2003; Draft Rater had him fifth.

• Danny Granger was the 13th collegian in 2005; Draft Rater had him third.

• Rajon Rondo was the 16th collegian taken in 2006, but Draft Rater had him second.

• Rodney Stuckey was the 14th collegian chosen in 2007; Draft Rater had him fifth.

• And last year, two players the Draft Rater had rated much higher than others did, Mario Chalmers and George Hill, had productive rookie seasons.

Getting buckets since 2003.

by Icantfeelmyface on Jun 18, 2009 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Initial Reaction: Not suprised at ALL about Jordan Hill

or Blair. Rebounding counts for a lot in his model, if I recall. Now off to read the article…

Getting buckets since 2003.

by Icantfeelmyface on Jun 18, 2009 5:53 PM EDT reply actions

I felt a lot better about Harden after seeing his rating

"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck

by George Templeton on Jun 19, 2009 2:04 AM EDT reply actions

Really?

Based on the ratings and our team needs, I would say that it supports us taking either Blair or Curry instead of Harden.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Jun 19, 2009 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions

No what I meant was

That I will feel better if we take Harden because of Hollinger’s article. I really would like to see DeJuan Blair in a Wizards uniform (after a swap of first round picks with the Bulls that nets us Kirk Hinrich!)

"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck

by George Templeton on Jun 19, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions