Pollin': Taser Time?
by Jake Whitacre on May 5, 2009 10:03 AM EDT
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PrintLast week, 82% of you voted that Ben Wallace would not be the only remaining Bullet left in the NBA next season. Of course. most of you probably voted before SLAM reported yesterday that Rasheed Wallace won't play next season unless he can get at least $8 million this off-season. If that is indeed the case, I get the feeling the majority will be wrong on that one.
This week, the subject of Pollin' is Dominic McGuire (official sponsors!). Other than Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison, no Wizard started more games last season than Dominic McGuire. As a starter, McGuire averaged 5.5 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game and provided some much needed perimeter defense.
Some more fun facts about Taser:
- He finished 15th in the league in assist rate, no other non-point guard had a higher assist rate this season.
- McGuire finished tied for second on the team in blocks with Andray Blatche, only one block behind JaVale McGee.
- Here's a list of some of the players who finished with a lower rebound rate than McGuire this season:
- LeBron James
- Ronny Turiaf
- Carmelo Anthony
- Joel Anthony
- Marvin Williams
- Jeff Green
- Andrei Kirilenko
- Boris Diaw
- Thaddeus Young
- Kenyon Martin
With McGuire in the lineup, you have a good distributor to put alongside Arenas, a solid defender, and someone who can help you win the rebounding battle. He helps in several areas where the starting lineup could use some help. The case to keep Dominic McGuire in the starting lineup next year is strong, but he has some factors working against him.
If the Wizards were able to draft Blake Griffin, the assumption would be that the Wizards would go big with Butler at the 2 and Jamison at the 3 to fit Griffin in the starting lineup. If they landed Rubio, most would probably want to see him in the backcourt alongside Arenas. Even if the Wizards aren't able to get either player, there's always the chance that the Wizards could land someone that can do what McGuire does and scores at a better rate. And there are those who argue that as long as DeShawn Stevenson can return to form, his outside shooting would spread the floor more and give the Big 3 more room to operate.
So where do we stand? Will Dominic McGuire keep his spot in the starting lineup next season, or will Taser have to work his magic off the bench? The choice is yours.
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I voted "No"
‘Cause that’s prob how Flip Saunders operates.
Should have been a “He should be” option.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.
Or an "As the team is now" option.
The Washington Wizards: providing career scoring nights for unknown opposing bench players since 2004.
As the team is right now
It would come down to McGuire vs. Stevenson. I’d rather have McGuire starting, but if Stevenson can play like he did before last season, then that would be fantastic. If McGuire keeps improving his shot, then I think he’d eventually be a great option in the starting lineup alongside a healthy Arenas, Butler, Jamison, and Haywood.
But there should be some more competition coming in depending on what happens with the draft and in a possible trade, so with that in mind, I voted no.
Agreed
Personally I love the kid, and I would be happy to see him in the starting line up again, especially with a healthy Gil/Brendan. However, with the prospect of a healthy DeSteve, or other potential roster changes, I think it is unlikely he will start.
Why can't he improve even more?
If you don’t give him the starter spot, at least give him the minutes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laydODN6xVk
The problem
Seems to be that both McGuire and Butler play SF. Each can sneak a few minutes in at SG, but it may be that for both players to maximize their abilities, they need to play SF.
If that’s the case, then what do you do? Have them split the 48 minutes? If McGuire continues to improve at the rate he did this past season, that won’t work — he’ll be too good to get only 15 minutes a game, and like the Steve Blake situation years ago, when it comes time for him to resign, if he’s going to be stuck with Butler’s leftover minutes, he might want to move to another team.
Do you move one of them, then? In a conference featuring LeBron James, every team in the East with high aspirations needs to be thinking about how they will defend the opposing SF. Butler is a terrific offensive player, but he hasn’t shown much inclination or desire to guard the opposing team’s best wing player. He leaves that “dirty work” to Stevenson or McGuire. A gutsy GM might sign McGuire to an extension, then move Butler to a team for a top-flight SG, or perhaps to Toronto along with the #4 or #5 pick for Bosh as we’ve been discussing. A starting frontcourt of McGuire, Bosh and Haywood, with a bench of Jamison, Songalia, Blatche and McGee could be incredible, but still would leave a gaping hole at SG.
In any event, McGuire’s development has created some problems that are good to have. I’m sure Grunfeld picked McGuire hoping he’d be good enough to spell Butler for 10 minutes a game, but he’s already better than that.
did McGuire's production drop off at SG?
I felt McGuire was able to be just as productive at the 2 as he was at the 3. As of right now he’s not much of an outside shooter, which is something the Wizards could certainly benefit from at that spot, but I don’t think McGuire suffers as much as say Butler does when playing SG.
But you’re right though, unless the Wizards can find a way to get him on the court, some other team might be in a better position to sign the guy in 2010.
Re Bosh, I’m not sure giving up Butler, our #1 pick and benching Jamison is the best way to maximize the talent on this team.
by Johnnie Futbol on May 5, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree re Bosh
I am in favor of keeping and using the draft pick, regardless of what pick it is (unless of course a killer trade is available). I was just rolling that out as a realistic Bosh proposal.
I don’t think looking at whether McGuire’s or Butler’s production dropped off at the 2 is the key criteria. “Production” typically means offensive stats, and that’s not the whole story. You touched on one key — for a Butler/McGuire SG/SF tandem to work, one of them is going to have to become a very good three point shooter for the offense to have sufficient spacing and flow. And neither one seems to be a very good defender of opposing SGs, so that is a problem, too. Perhaps Flip can devise offensive and defensive schemes to make that pairing work, but that remains to be seen.
I was going to make this same point
And neither one seems to be a very good defender of opposing SGs, so that is a problem, too.
McGuire is a good team defender and good against SFs and slower guards – but quick shooting guards just blow right by him because he’s not particularly quick or good at anticipating their moves. Maybe with more experience he’ll get better at that, but I’m not so sure he’s the fulltime answer at SG.
Getting buckets since 2003.
by Icantfeelmyface on May 5, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
82games.com sez
They don’t have McGuire listed as having played SG much (I suspect they have him as SF when both he and Butler were on the floor, even though McGuire may have been playing more of an SG role), but when he did, he performed a little better than when he was at SF. Opposing shooting guards, though, performed wayyyyyyy better than opposing forwards. Take a look. Again, there’s a small sample of McGuire at SG, and I’d like to see who exactly the opposing SGs he faced were, but it does give a preliminary indication that McGuire shouldn’t automatically be given the starting job.
A separate factor to consider is that it will be a new offense, and everything I’ve read about Saunders’ offensive style is that he encourages midrange jumpers, which McGuire is terrible at.
Now writing for Ridiculous Upside, where we think the Nuggets should play Sonny Weems more.
From the games I watched, McGuire was a lot more comfortable at SG than Caron was. McGuire should start next year, he’s worked well with the regulars this year and Deshawn’s only merit over him is his three point shooting but I feel that’s negated by Deshawn’s boneheaded decision making and occasionally trigger happiness.
I really don't agree with this
Jared Jeffries played alongside Butler, and the two were just fine. What makes you think our offense will suffer with a McGuire/Butler pairing when our offense was awesome with Jared Jeffries here?
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
That's an interesting point
But, as I recall, Jeffries used to get a quick hook so Eddie Jordan fave Jarvis Hayes could come in. And Jeffries, again as I recall, was used at the 2, 3 and 4 because he was so versatile defensively. I still think that the team would function better offensively if either its SG or SF was a very good 3 point shooter, but perhaps I am overstating that case.
In 05/06
In Butler’s first year, Hayes only played a quarter of the season.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I think it would be an insult to Dom to not give him the leg up on DeShawn
All the talk this year was over how these games weren’t meaningless, that the team was not tanking and that it was on the young guys to take advantage of the chances they would be given. McGuire, of all the young guys, did all of that when the other young players didn’t weren’t given the chance to. He’s worked harder than any of the other young guys and will likely do so again before training camp. If you want to set the example to the other young players, you have to declare Dom the starter. He’s the model guy. You should reward the model guy.
Also, while DeShawn is a better shooter, McGuire’s a better defender, ball-handler and rebounder. The latter is significant; with our small frontcourt, we need good rebounding guards.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I don't think McGuire's necessarily the better defender
He’s more versatile and probably a better team defender, but it seems like Stevenson is better with quick ball handlers – I guess my point is that it is almost a matchups question at the defensive end.
That’s not to say he doesn’t deserve to start over D-Steve for the other reasons you mention though…
Getting buckets since 2003.
by Icantfeelmyface on May 5, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, I assume you go into camp with an open competition for that position. Add NY and a possible (hopefully) new vet acquired via trade or (pleasepleaeplease) Rubio to the mix.
by MR on May 5, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
+1, especially the Rubio part
If the Wizards get the #2 pick and trade it rather than picking Rubio, I think it will kill me.
It would kill me in most cases
I’m willing to give Ernie the benefit of the doubt though; if he trades Rubio for Chris Bosh, then it wouldn’t kill me.
Hell, even swapping Rubio for David Lee/Stephen Curry wouldn’t kill me.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I can’t imagine that Grunfeld is going to give away the next Pete Maravich to the Knicks of all teams.
Keep in mind that adding a Rubio to your team drives up ticket sales and probably tv revenue as well, not to mention the jersey sales etc. That additional money can pay a lot of luxury tax…
by MR on May 5, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Next Pete Maravich?
Come on guys, slow down for a bit. There’s a lot to like about Rubio, but there was also a lot to like about Juan Carlos Navarro too.
I honestly do think Rubio’s perceived value is higher than his actual value to this team, with Gilbert Arenas already around desperately begging to take over the point guard position. He’s worth a lot more to a team like the Knicks, Golden State, Minnesota or Toronto than he is to us. That’s not to say we should give him away; he’s good enough where we need to hold out for something of significant value. But to not explore that market would be foolish when so many teams are drooling over the guy.
Like, if Minnesota came to us with a package centered around Love or Jefferson, I’d listen. Ditto Knicks and David Lee. Those guys fit what this team is trying to do better than Rubio does.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Sorry, the Pistol Pete reference is more about style and crowd pleasing ability than quality, which I’m not qualified to judge.
But my point is that his value to the team might be higher than say Griffin, Love, etc because he will put more fannys in seats and kids in jerseys.
Rubio does look a lot better than Navarro though, don’t you think?
by MR on May 5, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, yeah, he's definitely going to be better than Navarro
I was just throwing that out there as caution to the wind of assuming he’ll be great. I, for one, assumed Navarro would be an outstanding player for us.
I’m not sure about whether Rubio will put more fans in the seats than Blake Griffin. And I also don’t think it really matters much, because no matter what, Arenas, if healthy, will be the one putting butts in the seats.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Don’t take this the wrong way, but a white guy that plays with that much style is going to sell a lot of everything in the NBA. The fans and the media are going to LOVE Rubio. His jersey sales are going to be through the roof, although I don’t know how that money gets distributed.
by MR on May 5, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
The question, of course, is
Whether they’ll love him like Jason Williams or love him like Pistol Pete.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Jason Williams
Was a white guy who played with a lot of style early in his career. His play was a source of fascination early on, and it helped that Sacramento was becoming a bona fide team while he played the point. But his charm wore off pretty quickly, since his performance fell off.
That’s the point here. The whole “white guy with style” thing wears off if you can’t play. Which is why we shouldn’t place too much stock in how many jerseys Rubio will sell. He’ll sell a lot, in the long term, if he is good, not because of who he is.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Ok thanks
Actually, I think it took a long time for his charm to wear off.
In my memory it all started wearing thin around the same time his buddy was squirting water at NFL refs…
by MR on May 5, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually, I think it took a long time for his charm to wear off.
I take it back, you’re right. 3 years in Sacto. Not so long. Funny, I thought it was longer. Those Kings teams made quite an impression on me.
by MR on May 5, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
But even within those three years
It was really less than that, since the Kings started winning on the backs of other players. There was a significant faction among Kings fans that Williams was actually holding them back.
And that’s the other thing; is Williams really the cause of Sacramento’s increased fan base during that time? Or was it him along with the Webber trade, the Divac signing, Peja’s emergence and the team’s overall stronger play? It becomes difficult to isolate the causes there.
With Rubio, I feel like a lot of the increased popularity may be attributed to him when it’s just as much Gilbert Arenas’ return or other factors. I think someone mentioned this in the Bosh thread from earlier too with regard to Bosh. We’ll draw more fans first and foremost because Arenas will (hopefully) be back healthy. Every other factor is secondary.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Hmmm
I don’t know. There sure was a lot of excitement about Williams, his crazy 3 pointers not withstanding.
Of course life doesn’t play out in a vacuum, but I’m pretty sure there were more Williams jerseys around than Webber, Divac, Peja, or eventually Bibby.
by MR on May 5, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I could care less about Rubio's style
Rubio is 18 years old. I, as well as many of the posters on this board, first heard about him about 4 years ago. Think about that — we heard about a 14 year old point guard in Spain. And like LeBron James, who similarly has lived up to all the accolades bestowed upon him in high school, this kid has yet to disappoint.
He was playing on the Olympic team when he was 17. He has played professionally for three years, I believe. He is such an instinctive leader that he has been a leader on his professional team despite being so much younger than everyone. Defensive player of the year in his league, at 18 years old. All this, and he’s a point guard, a position where age and experience is usually needed to be really good.
I think you are grossly underestimating how good this kid can be, Prada. Ernie can’t pass on him. David Lee? Kevin Love? Please…. He has the potential to be the next Jason Kidd. Maybe he won’t be that, but if he has the chance to be, you’ve got to take that chance. A great, instinctive, creative point guard makes every other player on the floor better. You can’t pass on that.
But that's the thing
His perceived value is higher than his actual value to this team. Of course, every team needs a player with as much potential as Rubio. I don’t argue that. However, we don’t need a point guard like other teams need a point guard. We already have Gilbert Arenas. And for all this talk about shifting Arenas to playing off the ball, why would anyone think that would work long-term? Who guards shooting guards? How do you take advantage of Arenas’ creativity when he mostly needs the ball to do it?
For so long, we’ve lacked a strong rebounder and defender at the 4 spot, someone who can do the dirty work. Love and Lee are perfect fits from that perspective. Both are among the best rebounders in basketball. Both are really young. Love, in particular, is a supersized Songaila; a great rebounder and good defender that can be an ace on pick-and-pop situations. Ask Minnesota fans about Love; they’ll tell you he’s far better than it would seem.
To put it frankly, this team needs a player like Love and Lee more than they need a player like Rubio. Degrees are key here, of course, but that doesn’t change the point. And if Minnesota is willing to offer a king’s ransom for Rubio (something like Love, Mike Miller and their pick for Rubio and filler), we should take it. Similarly, if New York offers a sign-and-traded Lee, their pick (which we can turn into Stephen Curry, a guy who could fill Nick and Javaris’ roles all by himself, allowing us to trade those two for another upgrade) and someone like Wilson Chandler or Danilo Gallinari for Rubio and filler, again, why not consider it? If Toronto offers Bosh for Rubio, Blatche and expiring contracts, would you say no?
There’s no reason to not open the bidding for Rubio here. If he’s as good as some people think he is, we’ll get some crazy-good offers that could help fill many of the holes we have.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Sure
I’d agree that nobody is untouchable given the right offer, but let’s not undervalue the kid either. I mean, Webber was traded for Hardaway and 3 future first round picks.
Bosh is one thing, Lee is another. Admittedly, I am not as enamored with Lee as many other people.
by MR on May 5, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough
I’m probably overvaluing Lee a bit, though to be fair, it’s not just Lee that intrigues me, it’s Lee along with Curry and others.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Sure, but I also dislike the idea of trading one great talent for several lesser talents. I don’t think you build excellence that way.
(Whether Rubio will qualify as “great” or not remains to be seen.)
by MR on May 5, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree that there is no harm in being open to trading the #2 pick. None of the trades you propose interest me, however. Even the Bosh one — on a basketball level it does, but it has serious luxury tax implications that will likely leads to other players like Haywood being let go (but that was last week’s discussion).
I also agree that Rubio would be a more perfect fit if the Wizards had a gaping hole at point guard. But (1) let’s not forget that Arenas has missed most of the past two seasons and his health is an open question; and (2) let’s not make Arenas into John Stockton. Arenas has shown he can PLAY point guard, but that’s different than being one of the very few players born to play point like Kidd and Stockton. Arenas is and probably always will be a true combo guard who can play 1 or 2. I’m hoping he develops into more a pure point, but I’m not ready to anoint him the next Bob Cousy after two good games this season. A couple of seasons ago, the backcourt of Arenas and Daniels was the most effective. Why can’t a backcourt of Rubio and Arenas work?
But man, I hope the Wizards get a least the #2 pick so we can argue about this for another two months.
I’m sure Flip could figure something out with an Arenas/Rubio backcourt.
by MR on May 5, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
If the great NY Knicks teams of the early 70s...
could find a way to use Earl Monroe and Walt Frazier in one of the finest all time backcourts, then who’s to say that Rubio and Arenas couldn’t achieve the same results?
Add a mid-level enforcer to the rotation at power forward and this could be a really muti-dimensional team.
As far as Navarro goes, and obviously this a moot point, he would still have brought a great deal more to the Wizards 2-guard slot than anyone who played there last year. He averaged in double figures for Memphis in 2007-08 and then came back to Europe this season and won the Champions League MVP. He is not dogmeat, folks!
If Rubio is capable of playing at twice Navarro’s level, then he must be judged to be a top prospect indeed.
Like most everyone here
I am a McGuire fan. But I do think there is a little bit of getting carried away happening on this thread. In my opinion he is not currently a starting quality player on a top 4 seed playoff team.
By the fall he could be if he works as hard on his outside shooting as hard he did this past summer.
In my opinion he is not currently a starting quality player on a top 4 seed playoff team.
That’s not really the question though. The question is whether he’s a better option than anyone currently on the team.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Point taken
I think the 2 guard spot has been our weak link for several years. I’m guessing that EG is going to address that somehow this offseason.
by MR on May 5, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Also
That doesn’t mean he’s one of the top 5 players. Its that he fits the mix we need given the rest of the talents already penciled in. Denver is starting Dahntay Jones. He’s not one of their best 5 but he plays his role. The Wiz need some skills coming off the bench too.
I think it’ll be down to Stevenson and McGuire. I think Stevenson will get the first shot at the starting spot.
I predict it will be somebody not currently on the roster.
by MR on May 5, 2009 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I predict Ricky Rubio
(crosses fingers)
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
My fingers are crossed right with you.
However I kind of feel like if we get Rubio he won’t start on opening night. If that happens I predect DSteve.
by MR on May 5, 2009 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions
That would certainly be consistent with the way this organization thinks
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I voted no
Although if I had my druthers I would much prefer McGuire starting at 2 to Stevenson. That said maybe McGuire off the bench as a tempo/game-changing defensive and rebounding presence doesn’t sound bad either.
"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck
by George Templeton on May 6, 2009 3:12 AM EDT reply actions
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