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Draft Prospect - Demar DeRozan

Draft Prospect - Dermar DeRozan


As part 6 of my assessments of the top draft prospects, I present my review of Dermar DeRozan of the USC Trojans.


Derozan_medium

Team: USC
Height / Wt:  6'7" / 207
Position: Shooting Guard / Small Forward
Age: Freshman, 20 Years Old

Star-divide

Before I start, I want to say that I did not intend to do a draft prospect review of all the draft prospects in the 1st Round, but my DVR and external Hard Drive are full of College games from this year, and it would be a shame to waste them.

Also, since the Wizards could move up, move down, or move out of the draft; I think a review of all the 1st round prospects would be prudent. I'll try to do an assessment every few days throughout the Summer. I've also included a new section at the end of the review to show whether I believe the player is a good fit for the Wizards or not.

As always, I look forward to the intelligent and insightful comments by the BulletsForever community.

 

 

Demar DeRozan

 

YouTube video of DeRozan against UCLA, March 14, 2009

Best Case: Vince Carter
Most Likely: Gerald Wallace
Worst Case: Desmond Mason



Athleticism                        10    
Leadership                         6    
Size for position                 8    
Jump shot                           8   
Footwork/Fundamentals  6   
Post skills                           7   
Ball Handling                     5    
Perimeter Defense           8    
Post Defense                     7    
Help Defense                    8   
Passing ability                   6      
Speed/Quickness             9    
Basketball IQ                     6
Intensity level                     6


Any profile of Demar DeRozan has to start with his athletic ability. The kid can flat out get UP. On one of his dunks in the UCLA game, his head was within a couple of inches of the rim. At 6'7", that means his vertical is close to 40 inches.
He's got very good size for a Shooting Guard, or average size for a Small Forward. He's he's extremely quick, both front to back, and laterally. That lateral quickness, along with his vertical and quick hands, helps him on the Defensive end.

Offensively, DeRozan is pretty pedestrian. If he's not dunking in transition, or shooting from mid-range, he doesn't bring much. He does have a nice stroke from mid-range (14-18 feet) getting very good elevation with a very nice touch and shooting mechanics; both on catch-and-shoot, and pulling up off the dribble. DeRozan tends to fade on longer shots. (We know another 6'7" athletic Shooting Guard from USC that fades on his jumper). He doesn't get to the Free Throw line much, and when he does, he's only shooting 64%. He doesn't seem to know what to do with a screen, or how to get spacing on a pick-and-roll play; and he's not especially efficient or productive (eFG% 53%). One of DeRozan's biggest weaknesses is his lack of range on his jump shot. He shot a dismal 17% from the College 3-point line.

DeRozan is a good offensive rebounder, and he finishes well around the rim; both are aided by his physical skills. He moves well without the ball, but don't ask him to make more than one or two dribbles, as his ball handling skills are poor. He prefers to go to his left. He is right hand dominant (I never saw him use his left). Preferring to go left, and using only his right hand makes him very predictable. Although he doesn't turn the ball over excessively, his assist to turn over ratio is terrible - speaking volumes about his passing abilities.

DeRozan seems to put out effort on the Defensive end of the floor; but he occasionally loses focus. His athleticism and very good lateral quickness helped bail him out in College; but in the NBA he'll need to work harder to stay in a good fundamental defensive stance. He tends to stand too tall, get off-balance, and allow his opponent an advantage. He also bites on pump fakes too readily.


Demar DeRozan is very definitely a work in progress. He really needs another two years in College to develop, but since he's clearly a lock to be drafted in the top 10, that won't happen. The team that drafts DeRozan will need to be very, very patient; but it may be worth the wait.



STRENGTHS:
Tremendous athleticism
Size for position (SG)
Transition scoring-explosive finisher
Potential
Quickness
Mid range game
Defensive effort
Offensive rebounding

WEAKNESSES:
Lack of Advanced Offensive moves
Predictable
Cannot create his own shot
Ball-handling
Defensive focus
Defensive fundamentals
Defensive rebounding
Not ready to contribute immediately
Footwork and fundamentals
Productivity
Poor passer
Lack of 3-point range
Free Throw shooting
Intensity level
Upper body strength
Right hand dominant


Fit for the Wizards = 4        (1 being best fit, 5 being does not fit at all)

The Wizards don't need a shooting guard that can't shoot the NBA 3. They already have a couple of young, uber-athletic wings, and don't need another; especially since DeRozan doesn't bring anything special to the table.

 

 

 

Previous Draft Prospect assessments:
Blake Griffin
Ricky Rubio
Hasheem Thabeet
James Harden
Jordan Hill
Tyreke Evans - upcoming
Stephen Curry - upcoming
Brandon Jennings - upcoming

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A younger Nick Young is not needed.

by Fundefined on May 23, 2009 11:20 PM EDT reply actions  

Actually

Nick has better range; more advanced offensive moves; can go either right or left; is a better ball handler; has a lower turn over rate; is more efficient and productive; is a better free throw shooter; can create his own shot; and DOES contribute now….

I do see your comparison though: Both are extremely athletic; both have good size for the position; both are explosive finishers; and both have potential and upside….

It’s just that Nick is more polished after having spent 2 years at USC and 2 years as a Wizard….
Perhaps in 4 years, DeRozan will be ready to contribute as well.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on May 24, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

lets just draft Stephen Curry

by eltacoman on May 24, 2009 1:32 PM EDT reply actions  

Stephen Curry could help the Wizards...

He is obviously going to get drafted no later than 8th, so the question is do you use the #5 pick on him or trade down a tad and maybe get something else of value in return for the 5 pick, n expiring contract at nick young… who becomes totally redundamt at that point.

by khrabb on May 24, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Curry has NBA 3-point range

and the Wizards could definitely use someone that can shoot the 3… but Curry is a volume shooter (over 20 shots per game last year), and he’s undersized for a SG, and doesn’t have a PG mentality.

He’s definitely got a shooter’s mentality though…and he’s got a “give me the ball” mentality… with great scoring instincts.
Good footwork, good fundamentals on his shot.. (really pretty shot, actually). Near automatic with is feet set and square to the basket. Excellent FT shooter.

But because he’s undersised – and I doubt he’ll be able to defend the Shooting Guard position in the NBA….

I also question the competition he faced while at Davidson… I mean they played teams like Wofford, Winthrop and Chattanooga -= (Who? …………………. exactly!) – -

But when he did play against big time competition, Curry seemed to rise to the occasion (In a loss to Duke he dropped 29, Against Oklahoma he had 44)

I just think that he’d be better suited in a system like Mike D’Antoni’s “7-seconds or less” – where he can do what he does best – throw up a lot of shots…..

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on May 24, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

He's really damn efficient though

For someone who uses as many possessions as he did, seeing all the attention he did, he had a 60% TS%. That’s pretty unbelievable, all things considering. He also really improved his point guard skills this year (his assists/40 almost doubled), though he still turns the ball over a lot.

What I like about him is that he has a really developed mid-range game. Every year, his 2pt% has been over 51 percent. He also cut his three-point attempts down and got to the line more. He also improved his catch-and-shoot skills a ton this year, scoring more assisted field goals than ever.

Plus, he has great intangibles. He’s got a really good feel for the game and he comes up biggest against the best opponents, like you said. You also have to love his basketball pedigree. He will always work hard and carry himself like a professional.

I like Blair over him, but I’d rather have Curry than Evans or DeRozan. Not sure about Harden, but it’s close.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on May 24, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

I have to go back and watch some games

But from what I remember, he single handedly brought Davidson back from several deep deficits… even with guys hounding him… (2 or 3 defenders) – he could still manage to get shots off…

Considering the scoring load that Curry had to carry (there was only one other player on the team that averaged double figures) – and the opponents loading up to stop him – it’s pretty amazing what he was able to do…

I think he could be very special in the right kind of Offense… NOT the Wizard’s Offense, but like the Knicks or the GS Warriors. In the Wizard’s offense, I think Curry would be relegated to a catch-and-shoot guy….. or possibly 3-point specialist.

I like the fact that Curry has been in College for 3 years – He’s honed his skills and gained confidence. He’s shown leadership and a willingness to take the big shots. He’s developed his game to the point I believe he can help a team right away (either as a starter in New York, or GS if Belinelli doesn’t work out, or as a bench sniper in Washington or Philadelphia). Who knows, he might even be able to work his way into the Starting line up in Washington in a year or two….(Nick Young would have to stumble, but there’s not a whole lot of competition besides NIck)…

Too many of these guys are coming out after only 1 year – and they’re just not ready.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on May 24, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm curious about his improvement over the season

I watched him in an early-season USC game, and he failed miserably to impress. I didn’t really watch him after that, but I heard he improved as the season went on. Did you see this improvement out of him? If so, in what areas, and do you see him as a guy who has the ability to pick the game up quickly?

I agree that we can’t afford to invest 4-5 years in a guy to ride the bench and develop. In your evaluation, I see too many red flags – mainly on the fundamental side of the game. He seems EXTRA raw, and I have serious doubts.

Dear Diary, JACKPOT!!!!!!!!!!

by Evander holyfield on May 24, 2009 2:29 PM EDT reply actions  

What I saw was a player that was up and down all year

Early in the year (November?), against Seton Hall, Derozan played 20 minutes, went 1-4 with 3 rebounds and 3 points.

At Oklahoma in early December, I was mostly watching Blake Griffin – but DeRozan certainly didn’t impress, going 5-13 with 4 rebounds and 10 points.

In late December against Georgia Tech, he was impressive in 32 minutes, going 8-16 with 5 rebounds and 17 points. For a short stretch in the 2nd half, he seemed to be able to dominate, then he would disappear for a few minutes; and then do something special again.

I watched the Arizona State game January, mostly to get a feel for James Harden – but Harden bombed and DeRozan stood out – going 8-13, with 8 rebounds and 22 points… probably the best game that I saw him play all year… And although he was not the main defender on Harden, when he did play on him, he did a good job.

But then in the Arizona game (again I was mainly watching Jordan Hill) – DeRozan was a non-factor; going 5-10 with 4 rebounds and 10 points… while repeatedly being schooled by Chase Budinger (19 points)….

Now, remember, I didn’t watch EVERY game…. probably no more than 10.. but it seemed to me that he was just a yo-yo…. unpredictable what you might get from him game in and game out. He could be downright spectacular (as in against Az State, dunking the ball in transition, and hitting a high percentage of his mid-range jump shots) – or he could be a complete non-factor.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on May 24, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

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