BF Draft Board: Pick #4
by Mike Prada on May 21, 2009 1:21 PM EDT
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PrintI know, I know, we could easily trade the pick, but with the Wizards getting the fifth pick and currently owning a high second-rounder, we need to fill out an official community draft board. Keep in mind, folks, that this is a Wizards-centric draft board, not necessarily a list of who you believe are the top prospects in the draft. This is in order of best fit to worst fit among the top prospects in this draft. Ability of course plays a role, but consider first and foremost how this player will fit with the Wizards.
Hasheem Thabeet won the third spot on our draft board, so we move on to #4. I honestly don't remember who I voted for, but it wasn't Thabeet. I figure we already have JaVale McGee to develop as a center prospect behind Haywood, and while you can never have too many big men, it'd make more sense to sign a veteran to hold the backup spot until McGee is ready instead of drafting Thabeet.
It won't matter anyway, since Memphis is reportedly very interested in Thabeet and would take him over Ricky Rubio, but I still disagree with the consensus here.
Anyway, here's the vote for #4. Remember, this is a Wizards-centric draft board, not a listing of the top prospects for any team.
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I Like Tyreke
Most conventional mocks are all over us taking a big like Thabeet (whatever) … or Jordan Hill (gross!) … like Prada said, why would we want to take a developing big?
Bigs traditionally take longer than guards to develop and IF we were to be picking at any of these spots, I’d rather have a guard.
I’m not sold on Harden just because a lot of other people are …. then again, I don’t have much experience watching him other than his VERY unimpressive play in the tournament.
I voted for Evans at the three and he obviously gets my vote here. The guy is so diverse AND can play defense … with composure whether he plays the point or not.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.
I voted for Hill
I think the Wizards need to move some of their underperforming PF’s (cough, blatche, cough), and break the log jam…. Blatche is what he is; and I don’t see him ever being much more…. but Jordan Hill has a high upside… Even though I’m loathe to bring in another big man project – if Ernie does not trade the pick, he should take Hill. Groom him to be Jamison’s bigger, stronger, more athletic, better defending replacement.
Besides, I don’t see a critical need at Shooting Guard. YET. The Wizards still have depth there, along with youth. Unless Ernie can make a trade for a legitimate veteran upgrade at starting SG; DeShawn Stevenson, Nick Young and JaVaris Crittenton (combo) should be able to adequately man the position. None of the SG’s at the top of the draft are anywhere close to being starter material (at least not right away) – and Nick Young could end up being better than any of them… I say give Stevenson and Young another year.
I’m not sure why everyone here wants to replace Nick anyway… besides his rebounding deficiencies and lack of court awareness, he was showing a renewed interest in defense at the end of last year – and he improved his turn over ratio to one of the best on the team at 9.0. He’s averaging 19.4 points per 40 minutes with a 53% True Shooting percentage (4th on the team behind Butler, Jamison and Songaila). He should be able to continue to improve his scoring efficiency, and if he “gets it” on Defense, will be a quality Starting shooting guard for years to come.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Because the scuttlebutt on Nick
Is that after a couple years he still hadn’t learned some of the basic plays in the Princeton hybrid offense. And Flip Saunders not only runs a notoriously complex offense, but prefers a match-up zone that needs smart players on that end of the floor as well.
I like Nick a ton. But it’s reasonable to have concerns about his overall basketball IQ. If the team can only run a couple plays out there because Nick doesn’t know where he’s supposed to be, well it makes us weaker offensively. Fortunately Haywood is back on defense to tell him where to be, but still..
Also, PER by position shows that the Wiz were in the bottom 2 league-wide for both PG and SG spots. Gil should be able to come back, but we shouldn’t need him 40 mins a night. If we can land a big PG or an offguard who can pass handle and shoot we’d be in a better situation.
If James Harden were more of an ath-elite he’d be an ideal fit for Flip and the squad. Cunning, ran a similar match-up zone, hits open shots, passes if the shot isn’t there, veteran mindset, leader. Looks and talks like a grown up version of Gilbert. He lacks Nick Young’s silly hops and length. He also lacks Nick’s silly everything else.
by doclinkin on May 21, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Part of your PER argument
at least for the SG position is because Stevenson (6.9 PER) stunk for the first half of the season; Juan Dixon (9.3 PER) couldn’t seem to get on track all year, Mike James (9.7 PER) stunk, and Dom McGuire (10.79 PER) played significant time at SG….
Nick Young’s per was 13.12 (Highest PER for any guard on the team)
Stevenson historically runs about 12-13 PER every year.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Precisely my point.
13.12 PER ain’t all that great considering the league average is set at PER 15.
And DeShaun was dead last— who knows how well he recovers from major back surgery.
And Crittenton couldn’t throw a basketball to hit a male virgin at a comic book convention.
It says something significant that McGuire ended up our starting 2-guard last year, essentially giving up on the idea that a shooting guard has to be able to actually y’know shoot.
So our best guy at the spot is below average. Seems to me that’s a position you want to upgrade. I take the point that we need a muscular upgrade at Power Four, but being honest here, if we didn’t land Blake Griffin, we aren’t dislodging Antawn Jamison from that spot. Not unless he’s proven to be a poor fit for what Flip wants to run.
And I’ll be the lone holdout thinking Dray Blatche still has significant upside for us. He’s going to be tutored by the first coach of his Idol. Kevin Garnett. Flip’s system makes good use of long jumpshooting PF’s with a bit of a midrange game, especially if they pass pretty well. Check Antonio McDyess as well as KG. And Redshirt Junior Blatche is still young enough to begin to put it all together. Many Bigs develop late even if they don’t skip college. He’s improved incrementally every year. This year his foul rate dropped. Now that he’s working out all summer with Gil who has just discovered weight training, I can see real improvements. He’s one player on our squad who ain’t afraid to foul LeBron James hard.
Whatever, not to open up that debate.
Point being, a quality team doesn’t rely on sub-average 2-guards. If we can upgrade that spot it helps us more than most other likely upgrades.
I can see the points on Blatche
But – I cannot see where drafting a Shooting Guard at #5 will garner anyone that could be better than Nick Young… who, by the way, has improved incrementally each year as well.
I fail to see why you give Andray Blatche a pass on his low Basketball IQ (not to mention his low IQ in general – Getting shot at 3 in the morning after being out clubbing, getting arrested for solicitation) – just because he shows flashes…. Blatche doesn’t even know where the weight room is, and his idea of off-season workouts is getting arrested for speeding and driving on an expired license……. but you won’t give Nick Young the same pass.
Nick has improved each year…. even though his minutes last year fluctuated wildly, depending on Tapscott"s whim; the proximity of the Golden Toilet to the “Palace of Good Play”, or whether the moon was in the seventh house…. Nick Young still increased his production from 7.5 ppg to 11 ppg – while simultaneously cutting down on his turn over rate (9.0 , second best on the team to Jamison – if you don’t count Pecherov) – and at the end of the year he was playing pretty good defense. He worked out hard last off-season, and is reportedly working out hard again this Summer…
Meantime, he showed “flashes” of brilliance that Blatche can only dream about…. Yet, you’re willing to just write him off and draft a complete unknown from a small College conference who had a terrible tournament run, can’t create his own shot off the dribble, is turn over prone, and is not half the athlete Young is.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Rook, are you honestly suggesting Blatche has not shown flashes of brilliance?
I don’t think you even believe that yourself.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Brilliance?
No. Occasional excellent play? Yes
He had an excellent game after Eddie Jordan was fired. His best game of the year.
25 points, 12 Rebounds….. an Antawn Jamison type game….
But I wouldn’t call that “Brilliant”…. Actually, I call it a fluke.
Blatche only had 8 double digit rebounding games all last year… on the other hand, there were also 8 games last year where he played 24 or more minutes and grabbed 3 or fewer rebounds.
Dwight Howard had 9 games of at least 20 points and 20 rebounds – THAT’S flashes of brilliance.
If a player sets 3 consecutive Career Highs in points scored in a 4 game stretch, going for 28, 30, and 33 points while shooting over 72% from the field in only 30 minutes per game – I’d call that “brilliant”.
I would hardly call the Head Coach “brilliant” if he played that same player an average of less than 16 minutes per game in the next 4 games !
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
If a player sets 3 consecutive Career Highs in points scored in a 4 game stretch, going for 28, 30, and 33 points while shooting over 72% from the field in only 30 minutes per game – I’d call that "brilliant".
I’d call it a hot shooting stretch.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
This is essentially arguing semantics
No. Occasional excellent play? Yes
What’s the difference, really?
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Point is, Mike
I’d rather trade Blatche than Nick Young…
Blatche has shown tantalizing flashes of potential, usually followed by bonehead mistakes; both on the court and off. Unfortunately, I’ve slowly come to the realization that he may only reach his real potential on another team.
He’s been shot. He’s been arrested (multiple times). He’s been called out by the Head Coach. Called out by the team Captains. The Head Coach has been fired. He’s been called out by the replacement Head Coach. Nothing seems to make an impact.
I do see slow, incremental improvement from year to year… and by slow, I mean that by the 2012-13 season (his 8th season), Blatche should finally be averaging double digit in rebounds. Maybe slow and steady wins the race, when you’re talking about the Tortoise and the Hare… but in the NBA, teams can’t wait that long for a player to develop.
And even though I have seen some slow improvement in scoring, rebounding and fewer fouls… I still haven’t seen anything that tells me that his Basketball IQ is increasing. He still makes one or two bonehead plays per game; like he’s still a Rookie.
So if there’s a trade this off-season, and Ernie can move one of the expiring contracts with a young player to get an established veteran to help – I hope the player that is moved is Blatche. It might be the best thing for him.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
I don't agree with that
But I’ve made my Blatche case about a zillion times on here.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Yeah - I know
and last year, I mostly agreed with you…
To tell you the truth, I really hope that Andray is in the gym every day this Summer… in the weight room religiously …. consulting with and using a dietitian …. doing is aerobic work…. doing wind sprints….. working on his game in the gym every day…. preparing his body for the grueling 82 game schedule.
I hope
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Without looking into it too much
Blatche was terrible in November, showing a ton of promise thereafter before his injury, then pretty bad after that.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I'd rather trade neither
But as of right now it would be impossible to trade Nick because we’d have absolutely no-one at 2-guard. Which kinda speaks to my point. If we have depth we have options. And again, I agree with all the question marks on Harden, I like his positives, distrust his negatives. He has dropped 10-15 lbs in workouts, fine, but that doesn’t necessarily make him athletic.
Still on the Brandon Roy comparisons he garners, a poster on RealGM reminded me that Roy came out as a senior, while we’re looking at Harden as a soph. Looking at their numbers no way anyone would have taken Roy as a soph, while Harden’s numbers challenge the sr Roy in every category but two: a smidge more fouls, & TO’s.
Eh. This maybe makes mroe sense in the Harden post. I’ll finish the though there.
But right, so, if we’re talking about trading Blatche to earn a veteran upgrade at 2-guard okay I can see that, provided they prove actually, you know, better.
In that case it makes sense to look for a back-up 4 in the draft.
I still think I’d rather trade back to do the same thing instead of losing a positively developing back-up 4-5 who reads to me like he’s on the edge of another stride forward.
No sir.
I’m talking about giving him competition for the spot. Or what we might call in the business: ‘depth’. Nick Young has done nothing to put the clamps on his position, no all-star. Blatche is a back-up at two starting positions, giving him competition does nothing in particular. But a high-quality 2-guard is something we haven’t seen at that position since uh…never. Rip, I suppose.
Where I agree with you is that I don’t particularly see any 2-guard that could immediately displace him in the top of the draft. Notice the ‘IF" I put in front of Harden. Like I say, he’s the anti-Nick Young, both good and bad.
But know what, seems like the front office agrees more with me than you. They’ve been steady working out 2-guards for the draft (mostly 2nd rounders, though a late-first player like Marcus Thornton got a look. I like him alright).
I agree on all counts that Nick has a ton of potential and he’s developing. Still doesn’t change the fact that right now we have a starter at PF and a fair quality back-up (in Blatche who has been posting a 15 PER playing out of position mostly). But at 2-guard we have Someday-Maybe and drek.
Though where we’re really falling short clearly is our back-up Point Guard position, and that’s a spot that has a long list of high quality players in this year’s draft.
Why would you vote for Hill and not Blair?
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Honestly though
I am tired of drafting for “upside” (Blatche, Pech, Young, McGee). Almost all of our recent picks have been for “upside” and we are still waiting for consistency. If we can possibly get an NBA-ready steady performer (a backup is fine) out of this draft I would be ecstatic.
Getting buckets since 2003.
by Icantfeelmyface on May 21, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I can't argue with you on that....
BUT – this post is about who is the best fit for the Wizards among the remaining players in the Draft.
The Wizards need an inside force… A strong rebounder. A defensive presence in the paint to help out Haywood (or McGee). Some low post scoring.
I see only one guy on the list above that fits that bill. Jordan Hill. He’s the only one in this draft class that I would label “Starting Quality Power Forward” – even if it’s not right away; but down the road.
DeJuan Blair strikes me as an energy guy. He WILL be able to rebound at the next level. He’ll definitely throw his body around. But I don’t see the Offensive game that Hill has (or can develop) – nor can Blair, who is probably really only 6’6" be a defensive force inside; especially against much larger Power Forwards (Elton Brand, Chris Bosh, Tim Duncan, Pau Gasol, Josh Smith, David West, etc…). Blair will be a good bench rotation player for someone (even the Wizards) – but I just don’t see him as a Starting PF.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
It Looks Pretty Lonely
To be on the DeJuan Blair island. Prada, is that you on the other side of the beach?
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
No more lonely than in the Jordan Hill camp
But at least we have a reason to select our player other than “he’s the best available”….
I still don’t understand the fascination with James Harden… a Shooting Guard that has only average size, below average athleticism, commits a lot of turn overs and has a below average handle for a Guard. He can’t throw the ball into the Ocean unless he’s standing still (can’t shoot off the dribble). Not to mention his putrid showing against mid-level competition in the tournaments.
Especially when the Wizards are already grooming a Shooting Guard (Nick Young) that has excellent size, explosive athleticism, great shooting stoke, low turn over rate, pretty good with the dribble and is a hairs breath away from the starting job. He can shoot off the dribble; he can spot up; and he can go to the rim. Not to mention his stellar showings against top notch competition in College.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
I smell a prospect profile, Rook
Do you?
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
It's interesting
Because it seems that Harden is getting all this love for being a good ball-handler and spot-up shooter when he really did most of his damage finishing around the basket.
I flip-flop on Harden every day. I’m curious to read your thoughts, Rook.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Aren't we trying to figure out who the Kings will draft
And to me it is one of two guys for the Kings. Point Guard is such a need I think they go either Tyreke Evans or Brandon Jennings. It is tough, Jennings played in Europe which is something Geoff Petrie (I still think he is the GM?) will like. Tyreke Evans is not a true point, but his physcial skills and the thought that he could develop into the kind of PG they are looking for makes me think that Evans is the pick here.
As for DeJuan Blair some of what I read on this thread and the Jordan Hill-Blair thread has me warming to the idea of taking him at 5. How difficult do any of you think it will be to move down to 8-11 (where the Wizards can be sure they will get DeJuan Blair).
"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck
by George Templeton on May 21, 2009 4:25 PM EDT reply actions
"Aren't we trying to figure out who the Kings will draft?" Apparently not.
I was told in the last one of these that we’re trying to figure out who our 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc favorite choices are for the Wiz. Not a virtual draft board. Still an interesting debate.
this is what a draft board is
as in, rank the players in the order you think the Wiz would draft them if they had their pick of everybody.
Griffin would top their wishlist
Rubio would be second
According to the poll, Thabeet would be third
Who do you think would be fourth on the list.
you are thinking of a mock draft, where you pick what each team will do with their pick.
'he nails an open three from the corner....just like you and me, this one was made by penetration' - Truthaboutit - Round 1 Game 5 Recap
by KD Drummond on May 22, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
i voted Blair
yup. sure did.
'he nails an open three from the corner....just like you and me, this one was made by penetration' - Truthaboutit - Round 1 Game 5 Recap
Oh well if that's the case then . . .
I would say the Wiz would want Harden 4th
"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck
by George Templeton on May 22, 2009 4:19 PM EDT reply actions
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