So who's the top-five prospect again?
by Mike Prada on May 20, 2009 10:03 PM EDT
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PrintI'll readily admit I'm not much of a draft guy. Well, that's a bit off, I guess. I feel like I evaluate talent decently, about as well as most Joe Schmo NBA fans. I just haven't watched much college hoops recently, particularly this year with all the stuff going on at school.
So perhaps I'm missing something here. But there are two power forwards in this draft who have caught my eye because of the Wizards' need for a tough guy.
(Data's from Draft Express situational stats, the players' DX pages and KenPom).
Player one averaged 18.1 rebounds per 40 minutes and a ridiculous 8.2 offensive boards/40. He shot 59 percent around the basket and had a true shooting percentage of 60%. He averaged 1.12 points per possession and 23 points/40 minutes. His PER was 38.9. He anchored a team who finished 35th in the NCAA in defensive efficiency.
Player two averaged a not-so-bad 12.7 rebounds/40 minutes and 4.8 offensive boards/40. He shot nearly 54 percent from the field and had a true shooting percentage of 56. He averaged only 0.94 points per possession and 21 points/40 minutes. His PER was 27.2. He anchored a team who finished 142nd in defensive efficiency.
Player one doesn't really shoot jumpers, but Player two shot just 29 percent on them. Player one is 20; player two is 21. Player one's team was in a better conference and got further in the NCAA Tournament than Player two.
One of these men is appearing in the top five of most mocks, sometimes next to the Wizards' name. The other is in the late lottery and even as far down as the middle of the first round. Which is which?
It'll probably surprise you to know that Player one is DeJuan Blair, while Player two is Jordan Hill. Yet it is Hill that is appearing higher in most mock drafts, even sometimes next to our own team's name.
My question is, why?
It goes without saying that Blair's college productivity is simply impossible to ignore. Luke Winn of SI.com did a look into the DX database and found that Blair was not only the best offensive rebounder in college basketball this past year, but he was actually the best offensive rebounder in the last eight years of college basketball. And as the DX situational stat article mentioned, despite his height, Blair finished pretty well around the basket. Most importantly, for this team, he's not a skinny jump-shooter that will operate outside the paint. No, this guy is an absolute moose who could potentially change games off the bench, if not more.
Obviously, the issue with Blair is his height and weight, but I'm not too concerned about either. He's supposidely dropped 15 pounds already working at the IMG academy, and he looks like he's in really good shape. As far as the height problem, I don't think I need to list all the recent successes of smaller forwards that were stocky in build, but Paul Millsap, Big Baby Davis, Leon Powe, Carl Landry, Kevin Love, Udonis Haslem, Brandon Bass, Jason Maxiell, Udonis Haslem, David West, David Lee and Elton Brand were pretty good despite their height. Besides, Blair has unbelievably long arms, so I'm sure he'll measure pretty well at the pre-draft combine. Rebounding translates better than any stat
But this is just as much about the problems with Jordan Hill than it is with Blair's exploits. For two years, Hill was a lot more like Blair; a big guy who stuck more inside. But in his last year in college, his percentages went way down as his shot attempts rose. We mentioned how he only shot 29 percent on jumpers; the discouraging thing is that he shot over 2.5 of them a game, higher than the average power forward prospect. His free throws per shot attempt number has gone down for three straight seasons. He's a decent rebounder, sure, but he's not amazing like Blair is. There's also a lot of talk about Hill's defensive potential, and maybe there's something there, but his team was pretty awful defensively (though that may have more to do with Chase Budinger than Hill).
So am I missing something? Why is Hill a top-five prospect and Blair isn't? I'm not sure Blair is worth a top-five pick. I am sure, however, that Hill isn't. And if we draft Hill for the attributes he supposidely possesses -- defense, rebounding, interior toughness, energy -- then it's borderline criminal to pass on Blair when Blair does all those things better than Hill.
Blair>>>>>>Hill. So if we're looking for interior toughness with our fifth pick, what's so bad about "reaching" for Blair?
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blair
im all about drafting blair with the 5th pick and im getting ridiculed in real life for it. He might not have the highest ceiling of players in the draft, but you know what you’re getting right away and its things the wizards need
I really don't think you're crazy
I’d do it too, to be honest.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I think this is a draft
where you can reach for a guy like Blair and no one will be surprised.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laydODN6xVk
Damn.... Prada graduates college and gets a "real" name.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.
LOL
It’s a smart move, actually. On other sites, “Mike Prada joins us” is better than “Pradamaster joins us.” E.G. the Wiz Insider post a few days ago.
When I read BDL and SLAM every day, I just drool at the thought of reading analysis about the Wizards, should they get that deep in the playoffs. I hope Prada is still around by then.
Why reach?
Trade with the Knicks
Wizards trade
Mike James ($6.4M expiring) + Nick Young ($1.7 expiring) + #5 pick in the 2009 Draft
for
Sign & Trade David Lee ($8.1M) + #8 pick in the 2009 Draft
New York moves up to make sure then can get Stephen Curry + gets the perfect athletic shooting Guard for Mike D’Antoni’s 7-seconds or less Offense…. (since he doesn’t care about defense anyway)…
Wizards move down and can select Blair..
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
A trade-down is definitely ideal
But I worry it won’t happen because of a lack of demand.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Curry is a perfect fit for D'Antoni's system
AND – he’s good friends with LeBron James….
The trade mentioned above, gives the Knicks an almost guaranteed shot at getting Curry and also gives them a Shooting Guard (Nick Young) so they don’t have to overpay for Nate Robinson… They’re going to lose David Lee to Free Agency anyway…. and the Knicks are saving all their Cap space to make a max offer to LeBron James (and others) in the 2010 Free Agent market.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
one issue
I like the trade down idea, in particular if it’s not too far. I also love the idea of adding Blair and think Prada’s point about valuing him more than Hill is right.
If there’s something I don’t like about this trade though it leaves the Wizards in a ridiculous situation at PF. Jamison, Lee, Blatche, Blair, Songalia and potentially McGee. I’d suggest throwing in Blatche instead of Young but I still would think there’d be a problematic logjam at PF.
Personally if we add any PFs this year I’d like to subtract at least the same amount.
by Johnnie Futbol on May 21, 2009 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions
I've been counting Blatche as the Wizards back-up Center.....
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
that's true
Center is out of position for Blatche, but he is their best after Haywood, at least until McGee surpasses him. That’s one good reason to keep him on the roster.
by Johnnie Futbol on May 21, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Then who is our shooting guard?
I agree with the principle, but not with Nick Young included.
Dear Diary, JACKPOT!!!!!!!!!!
by Evander holyfield on May 20, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I've been on the Blair bandwagon for a while now
But I’d like to officially throw my support behind the “Get Blair, even if we have to reach for him” bandwagon.
Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.
room for one more?
i’d be really happy to get blair as well – BUT – the issue is, as has been brought up already – do you do it at 5, or move down? and, if it’s as prada and others say that there is just not much worth in having 5 vs. 10-15th pick, will ernie be ok with ‘reaching’ at with the 5th pick?
"a crab dribble is when you travel" - caron butler
by little stevie colter on May 20, 2009 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions
also -
way to freaking go, orlando!
"a crab dribble is when you travel" - caron butler
by little stevie colter on May 20, 2009 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I want to hop in the wagon...
But as much as I like Blair, I just keep thinking of Mike Sweetney. Maybe it’s the Big East dominance, but I hope I’m wrong. Blair is a beast though, on the boards and in the paint – I just don’t know anyone who relies that much on brute strength in the pros without a jumper. Maybe that’s the beautiful thing about him: we’d just put him in the game to knock guys on their backs and get mad boards. Kind of like our own Jahidi White…
Dear Diary, JACKPOT!!!!!!!!!!
by Evander holyfield on May 21, 2009 12:16 AM EDT reply actions
Davis, Millsapp, Landry, Powe, Chuck Hayes,
The problem with the short power forward types: they have to hack to defend. Most show up ranked high in the measure of Personal Fouls per 40 minutes:
http://tinyurl.com/okbqqd
(pace adjusted, players 20 mins+, re-sort for 10mins+ to find the others)
DeJuan Blair is a ball-hungry bulldog (painful) but he’s an ‘eh’ defender at the NCAA level and didn’t face many quick PFs with face-up skill. Could he improve? He’ll get quicker on the P&R trap/recovery now that he’s lost weight. But he won’t get taller, won’t challenge the taller swifter more agile 4’s he’ll see in the NBA on a nightly basis. We can stick Haywood on Dirk/Duncan etc and let Blair guard the centers, but it’s not like Wood and DJB have showed a reliable jumper, there’s no room for both in the paint at the same time.
With a top 5 selection there are still legitimate questions about his role, use, and best utility. And fit with this squad. And considering two knee surgeries already there’s a reasonable risk question mark. Unless of course somehow we’ve upgraded our crack medical staff…
What we need most
Is a top flite shooting guard. Ideally with defense, spot-up shooting, and nice passing. Unselfish game.
Too bad there ain’t any in this draft. DeRozan and Evans lack key skills (outside shooting, ball IQ). Harden is crafty as all hell, can hit open shots, but lacks athleticism to easily get himself open without a screen, and much of his NCAA offense won’t translate (he’ll get far fewer under-the-rim lay-ups, bullying SFs with his paunch). Maybe he adjusts, or develops his athleticism and skills. Temperament and intangibles he’s a great fit for the squad. If he were a top man-on defender I’d take him and be ecstatic. Now that he’s lost weight, maybe he’ll quicken up.
Henderson has the all-around requisites, but not top-5 quality— there are better talents available well before his ‘tier’ comes due. You can probably land an equivalent or better player in trade,
I like Marcus Thornton farther down. Aaron Jackson/Nick Calathes as combo prospects (PG skills, decent height). And that might be the way to go, a guy who can play off the ball when Gil is doing his thing, then run the show next to N1 when Gil is on the bench.
You Obviously Did Not See the Cavs/Magic Game Last Night
If you did, then you wouldn’t say we need a shooting guard more than anything else. I swear it looked more like hockey than basketball, and our collective of Manute Bol impersonators at PF would have gotten thrown around like rag dolls and crushed had our team participated in that game. We can compete with a solid defender and catch-and-shoot SG, and we might get that back if DeShawn comes back healthy. What we can’t do without is a bigger, stronger, and tougher front line. Not in this conference for sure.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Not a starter
This comparison really exposes a lot about the NBA draft, the league, etc. Blair is going to successful, but he will be successful in his particular role — an off the bench, 15 minute a game role player. Teams typically don’t use the 5th pick in the draft to grab that sort of guy, except for Atlanta when it picked Sheldon Williams, which hasn’t exactly turned out so well.
The small power forwards you list above as comparisons are all limited bench guys, unless or until they have a jump shot. Blair doesn’t, so his two key deficiencies (not able to defend other PFs, lack of J) will keep him to that limited role. He will kick butt in that role, however.
Hill, however, has all the potential and attributes teams want in a starting power forward, even though he hasn’t fulfilled that potential or developed those attributes yet. The NBA draft has become something like popular music today, with producers finding a beautiful girl who can dance, has stage presence and “star appeal,” figuring, “I can teach her to sing.” In the past, Jordan Hill would be a lower pick, and if he developed, he would be touted as a steal in the draft, and a guy who busted his butt to be good. Now, he’ll be picked high, and if he doesn’t develop in two years, he’ll be labeled a bust who is too lazy and a head case.
I do find it interesting that many of the same people who complain about Jamison’s inability to defend and want him moved to the bench or traded are clamoring for Blair. Seems like they both present the same problems.
Blair is No Jamison
A big part of the reason that Jamison is such a poor defender is that he gets backed down very easily. If all Blair did on defense was hold his position in the post and got his hands up without biting for pump fakes, then he’d already be a better defender than Jamison.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
I like Blair too...
He certainly had no trouble with Thabeet!
But I also agree with the general sentiment expressed here that he is an NBA back-up not a starter. We could use his toughness but, as a GM, would you want to look yourself in the mirror and say that DeJuan Blair was all we got for enduring a horrific season and dreaming of Blake Griffin until the ping-pong balls dropped the other way? The same can be said for Stephen Curry, who I think is going to be a good NBA-rotation shooting guard. Yes, but not at #5.
The Wizards will, I am sure, look VERY hard at James Harden and Tyreke Evans as #5 picks and then they will either decide that one of these men is better now and for the long run than Nick Young… or not. If the answer is yes, I would expect that Nick Young, an expiring contract and the #33 pick will be dealt for a proven power forward like Nick Collison. If the answer is no, then the 5 pick, Andray Blatche and the expiring contract, will be swapped, again for a proven hard body or wide body. In this scenario the 33 pick would be used to select the best available player, such as Wayne Ellington (good insurance if Young still fails to make the grade).
Nobody said it would be easy!
Blair
Would be the enforcer we need against LeBron. If the refs decide to actually let the players decide the outcome, Blair is one dude who could make LeBron think twice about coming into the lane.
Also, Dwight Howard struggles when guarded by wide bodies on the block. If Blair can help slow done Howard and LeBron, therefore limiting the top two eastern contenders, Orlando and Cleveland, for the foreseeable future, he would be a great pick.
That said, if he is a liability elsewhere, and can’t stay on the floor, he does us no good.
Blair can't stay in the game.
Do you seriously think a guy who against college competition can’t stay in games through foul trouble will somehow not foul out constantly against NBA competition that is taller, faster, and gets more foul calls on star power alone?
I really like Blair’s attitude and swagger. The guy has personality and he plays with fire. If he can learn to stay out of foul trouble, you have yourself a contributor.
I'm on the Blair Bandwagon
Here’s a couple of videos of him manhandling Thabeet (assuming they display):
Despite giving up 8.5" in height, Blair absolutely owned Thabeet in this game. I think what gets overlooked when focusing on Blair’s height is his tremendous wingspan. DraftExpress lists his wingspan at 7’3". For comparison, Tayshaun Prince has a wingspan of 7’2". Some say Blair’s huge wingspan is due to his wide body, so I would be interested to see what his standing reach is when that gets measured. If he has a standing reach of at least 9’, then I don’t think we will have anything to worry about when he matches up against other PFs in the league.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Links
Hmmm… I thought I remembered being able to embed video in thread posts. Oh well, here are the links:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WASWhKKQfY&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5R_k0Sw8nc
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Wingspan is in some ways more important than height
Combined with a wide base, I have little doubt that Blair has an NBA body, even if it’s not the prettiest.
Getting buckets since 2003.
by Icantfeelmyface on May 21, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Wingspan can also be decieving
Although in Blair’s case, he has extremely long arms…..
but he also has an extremely wide back, which contributes to his wingspan, without contributing anything to his ability to contest or block shots…
As someone else here said, it will be interesting to find out his standing reach – a much better indication of reach, than wingspan.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Another Profile of Blair
Over at Indy Cornrows:
http://www.indycornrows.com/2009/4/9/829231/dejaun-blair-the-beast
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Another Point
Everyone talks about “reaching” for DeJuan Blair with the 5th pick. I wouldn’t be so sure that it is a reach. As Prada has already pointed out in a different thread, this year’s draft class lacks a lot of consensus. Every GM’s draft board probably looks a lot different. If we trade down in hopes of still getting Blair, we may find egg on our faces when another team “reaches” for him before us.
As an rough example, although not a great one, everyone seemed to think last year that Roy Hibbert would be drafted very late in the first round and might even fall to the second. But Hibbert secretly moved up the boards and got snatched up at 17. A similar thing might happen with Blair if he impresses teams with his measurables and workouts.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
I want neither
And NBA scouts, etc. only weigh college production about 30% compared to their biased assessments at 60%, and what everyone else says at 10%.
I’m just taking wild guesses here BTW….
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.
Does that make them right, though?
Past history suggests no. Plus, rebounding translates and nobody rebounds better than Blair.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I'm with you on this one.
I actually guessed that player 1 was Blair, mainly based on the several games I saw him play this year. The dude brings so much to this team that we don’t have. Other than a top-flight shooting guard, we need a rough-and-tumble banger down low who brings lots of energy, rebounding, and defense. I doubt Blair will be a star in this league, but he is definitely worth a top-10 pick in a weak draft. I think he is one of the few players that would immediately improve the team. Kudos for the post.
Getting buckets since 2003.
by Icantfeelmyface on May 21, 2009 3:42 PM EDT reply actions
I guess my one question
Is defense. I havent seen Blair enough to know how committed a defender he is. If he always brings the effort then I say he should get a really close look from Grunfeld.
Getting buckets since 2003.
by Icantfeelmyface on May 21, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Physical AND Mental Toughness
Remember how he just dominated “You Can’t Stop” Thabeet? I guess you can stop him. UConn got swept by Pitt, mainly because of Blair owning Thabeet. Rebounds, pushing him around, what have you.
Love the observation.
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