What 17.8% Looks Like
by Jake Whitacre on May 18, 2009 1:15 PM EDT
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PrintEveryone knows what tomorrow is all about. After months of speculating about what we would do with each spot on the draft board, we'll finally figure out what we're working with tomorrow at 8.
I'm not a mathematician by any means, so I'm not going to tell you to go out and buy Blake Griffin jerseys right away, or get ready for a future of discussing what to do with the #5 pick. But hopefully some of these links and visuals help everyone better understand what kind of odds we have tomorrow night in Secaucus.
- Javaris Crittenton only hit 14.3% of his three point shots with Washington this year, so the Wizards have a better chance of getting the top pick than we do of seeing this happen again: - That 17.8% chance to get the top pick is just as good as your odds of seeing your Canadian car dealership do well. - 17.8 percent is also the same at the usage rate of both Javaris Crittenton and Brendan Haywood. - The Wizards have 178 chances in 1000 of getting the top pick this year. That's one chance for every win in Hippo Vaughn's career. One chance for every episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation. Half of a chance for every candidate linked to the Sacramento coaching job.
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Eddie Jordan would have loved to have had a 17.8% winning percentage this year.
by disgrunted on May 18, 2009 1:29 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
And Rec'd
Dear Diary, JACKPOT!!!!!!!!!!
by Evander holyfield on May 18, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for reminding us of Le Curse Jake
I haven’t done enough preparing for a massive fail tomorrow
Dear Diary, JACKPOT!!!!!!!!!!
by Evander holyfield on May 18, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I'd be equally thrilled with either pick
Griffin is going to be better short term, but Rubio really seems to be able to capture people’s imaginations.
by pantslessyoda1 on May 18, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Cool thing is
that 34.8% is good for 1 & 2, but may still garner Griffin….
If they get the #1 pick:
Sacramento will take Rubio
Minnesota will draft Rubio
The Clippers will draft Rubio
That’s 3 of the top 5 teams in the Lottery that would probably take Rubio over Griffin; giving the Wizards a better chance of landing Griffin.
Only Oklahoma City will definitely take Griffin – and of course, Washington.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
26 hours and we won't have to...
go through this stuff again for a long, long time (I hope). Wonder what the odds on THAT work out to be?
Speaking of odds
If you are, like me, (1) discouraged by the low percentage chance that the Wizards will get a top 2 pick, but (2) thinking that James Harden would be a good addition, making this a draft with three good candidates at the top rather than two, then good news! I was goofing around with that ESPN Lottery thing, and the Wizards have, by my estimate, over a 90% chance of getting Griffin, Rubio, or Harden. If you run that ESPN Lottery thing several times, you’ll see that the Wiz either end up with Griffin, Rubio, or almost always have the ability to pick Harden (because other teams with the #3 or #4 pick Thabeet and Hill, because the Wizards have the #3 pick, even if the Lottery machine gives them Thabeet, etc.).
If you don’t think Harden is good enough, well then, I don’t know how to cheer you up. But I tried.
The Harden buzz...
is getting louder and more positive for sure
But what does Harden bring to the Wizards?
Although the Wizards need an upgrade at Shooting Guard; Harden won’t be a starter his Rookie year…
He’s not especially big for a SG (6’5")… he’s only average athletically…. and he’s not very quick.
He’s smart, and plays good defense. He’s got an extensive Offensive repertoire – but he’s turn over prone and needs to work on his ball handling.
So… what does he bring to the Team that Nick Young can’t do this year (or next)…
Perhaps he can be a starter in 2 or 3 years…. but do the Wizards really need another young player that needs time to develop?
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
My take on Harden is this. I don’t know if he is going to be a franchise level SG. Those guys tend to be the #1 or at least #2 scorers on their team. But if you described the perfect fit for the Wizards at SG, who already have three very good scorers, I think it would be this:
“High basketball IQ, versatile, can hit 3s, rebound and pass well, willing to play a complementary role and defer to others, doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be effective, a glue guy, lockdown defender, capable of guarding LeBron effectively.”
That describes Harden to a T, except for the lockdown defender and LeBron parts, though he is a good defender. It’s strange that you would think he doesn’t bring anything to the table that Nick Young already doesn’t provide, because I think Harden is the anti-Nick. Look at that list above — Nick meets almost none of those criteria. He’s a gifted scorer, though, and thus has value.
I don’t think the Wizards’ draft choice has to be a starter this year or next to be a good value. Finding a good backcourt partner for Arenas for the next 5+ years has to be good for something.
(When I typed, “I don’t know how to cheer you up. But I tried,” I thought about adding, “I really tried, Rook.” And here you are. Ha.)
Agreed
I have been high on Harden for a while, and though his NCAA tourny was disappointing, there were extenuating factors involved, just like in the case of Blake’s D in college. Sendek’s offense and being run into the ground during the PAC 10 tourney are a few.
Harden is the anti-Nick.
You nailed it. He may not have Nick’s athleticism but he brings so much more substance at this point, not to mention he has been a winner at every level(ASU was no world beater last year, but Harden brought them to a whole new level during his two years). He has a high IQ, a great work ethic and many other things disgrunted listed above, that make him a near polar opposite of Nick.
If we can’t get Griff or Rubio, I think Harden is the next best fit, and could make a fantastic running mate with Gil in the future.
That said, I’m praying for Blake.
DT – I too was disappointed with Harden’s tournament performance for sure, but my take was that Harden prides himself, or has been told to let the game come to him. And in the tournament, he just did that to a ridiculous degree. Teams focused on him, and he just kept deferring to others, passing, etc. He was so passive that it was maddening. But that’s fixable. He didn’t stink because he didn’t have the talent, but because he didn’t assert himself enough. Maybe those are the kinds of mistakes 19 year olds in their first tournament will make.
Spin thi one out and it starts to work...
Let’s say (a) we get the 4/5 pick and (b) some real doctors (not necessarily the team’s!) say Stevenson is good to go. Then draft harden to be what nick isn’t and let Deshawn keep his seat warm as he was supposed to do for nick. Package nick an expiring and our early 2nd round pick for a solid banger (hello Polish hammer)… and voila. Just speculating to fill the empty hours lol.
ha -
sounds like you’re just praying for a way to get the wiz on TV more often in poland!
i actually wouldn’t be crushed if they got harden, but i think that gortat is going to be slightly over-priced due to high demand for a big guy. and not that it matters much, but i’d be bummed if we traded nick in the SE and he got a lot better.
"a crab dribble is when you travel" - caron butler
by little stevie colter on May 18, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions
they do love the hammer here!
coveage of last night’s game was intense and even basic drive time radio local news made time for Orlando MAJEEK.. after Maciej Lampe went bust ya gotta love Gortat.
Sendek
Harden did everything for that team all year. I was disappointed in how Sendek drive he, Pendergraph and his PG (former HS teammate of Harden’s) into the ground during the tourney. Not only that but Sendek is a ball-movement, motion offense guy and the only play he called down the stretch versus USC was the high pick and roll for Harden. The kid (he turns 20 in August) was running on fumes and Sendek put him itn eh worst possible spot against USC’s defense. Thats when turnovers happen.
The underwhelming part is that he doesn’t fit the athlete model. So even though he averaged 20/5/4 1.7 steals and shot 35.6% from three there will still be questions.
Actually - to put a positive spin on this
Our odds of landing Blake Griffin are actually higher than 17.8% – since the LA Clippers are interested in Ricky Rubio
So if the Clippers get the #1 pick, the Wizards could still get Griffin.
Another bit of speculation…. What about Sacramento? They already have a wealth of good young big men:
But they desperately need a Point Guard…
My guess is that they’ll take Ricky Rubio with the 1st pick if they win the Lottery… Which increases the Wizards odds of getting Griffin even more.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Not gonna happen
The Kings are in no position to draft for need. They’re going to take the best player available should they win the #1 pick= Blake Griffin
BOOK IT!
And then what....
Play him along with all those other guys…. with “no bueno” Udrih as your Starting PG?
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Oh yeah...
I’m not the only one that thinks the Sacramento Kings could bypass Griffin and draft Ricky Rubio….
The Kings drafted big men with each of their last two lottery selections, and thus are one of the few teams that could buck the trend and pick Ricky Rubio over Blake Griffin.
And another team in the Lottery that might pass on Griffin to take a chance on Rubio is the Minnesota Timberwolves.. They already have a solid front line with rebounding beast Kevin Love and Center Al Jefferson – - – and talented wings in Randy Foye and Ryan Gomes. But, they too desperately need a Point Guard… Add Ricky Rubio to that team, and they could become a very dangerous team, very quickly.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Its not even a question
If pretty much any of the 6 worst teams didn’t draft BG with the first pick they would be idiots. You can’t even argue need when your team is as bad as all these teams. If they didn’t need a power forward of his caliber, they wouldn’t be in the lottery. I don’t know if you noticed, but Spencer Hawes, Jaso Thompson, and the rest didn’t exactly light it up.
and then
They pick Griffin and trade Jason Thompson and an expiring salary for a PG. Mike Conley comes to mind.
Also...
The Kings have another mid-late 1st round pick. There are a number of decent PGs in this year’s draft and it might be wise for them to wait and pick one up with their 2nd pick.
Nonetheless I definitely don’t think it’s a given that some of these teams will pick Griffin over Rubio. Even the Wizards IMO should think long and hard about who’s the better fit (before finally deciding it’s Griffin of course) if they get the #1.
by Johnnie Futbol on May 19, 2009 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions
I was thinking of Felton
But yeah, that would make the most sense to me as far maximizing the value of their pick. Or hell, they could even try to swing a deal and trade down to the second pick if they’re really that infatuated with Rubio and maybe pick up another first rounder down the line.
by pantslessyoda1 on May 19, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
It seems like everyone is forgetting about him
He’s been solid when Charlotte’s had him play the point, and he’s still pretty young. I think he’ll be a late-bloomer, and whoever acquires him will be pretty lucky, especially if they can help him improve his jumper.
by pantslessyoda1 on May 19, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Happy 24 hours until the Lottery starts
Which is an opportunity for me to complain about the fact that his once excellent event (halftime of a weekday afternoon playoff game, I love that as a kid) is not only turned into a show (I hate it) but it ain’t coming on until 8:30 AT NIGHT!!!!! WTF!!!!!! Why oh why do we have to wait that freaking long to know our fate! It’s a bleeping joke! 30 minutes of the shootaround show and then the Draft Lottery?! Kiss my entire arse, David Stern you
"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck
by George Templeton on May 18, 2009 8:44 PM EDT reply actions
One more episode of Star Trek the Next Generation and we would have gotten #1
Couldn’t the Romulans have crossed the neutral zone just one more time?
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