The Economic Case for Chris Bosh
by Rook6980 on May 2, 2009 10:40 AM EDT
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PrintThere have been many posts made about the possibility of the Wizards trading for Chris Bosh. Basketball wise, it makes tremendous sense. Assuming the Wizards would not have to give up any of their core players (Arenas, Butler, Haywood or Jamison); a Wizard's team with Chris Bosh would immediately put them in contention. Not just contention in the Eastern Conference, but on a par with the best teams in the Association; including Boston (with KG), Cleveland and the Los Angeles Lakers.
Basketball-wise, the move would make sense; but can it work economically?
Everyone knows that this is a transient city. You have the die-hard, core fans.... and then, for lack of a better phrase, the "front runners". You know the ones I'm talking about. They would only attend a Wizards game if there was a "buzz"; if it were "THE place to be".... The ones that are there to "be seen". The way to increase the team's revenues is to increase the attendance. (duh !) For Washington, more than any other city, that means the Wizards have to bring in the "front runners". If they win, those "front runners" will show up.
If the Wizards were to trade for Bosh, let's make some further assumptions:
1. The Wizards would NOT trade any of their "core" players (Arenas, Butler, Jamison or Haywood)
2. The Wizards average home attendance would increase.... from the current 82% capacity (16,612 per game) to 96% capacity (19,947 per game) *
3. Let's assume the average ticket at the Verizon Center is $50.00 (I couldn't find an actual number, but that should be close)
4. Not too hard to assume that the Wizards would instantly become a deep Playoff team; at least getting to the Eastern Conference Finals
5. By trading for Bosh, the Wizard's salary situation for 2009-2010 remains the same. (Trades have to match, salary-wise after all)
6. Let's assume the Luxury tax is set at about $69 Million for the 2009-2010 season. That's the number I've seen thrown around.
7. Assume the Wizards sign their 1st round draft pick (Max $4.1 Million salary); and either trade the 2nd rounder, or draft-and-stash.
8. Wizard's total salaries will be approx $80 Million (Currently they have $75.9 Million committed + $4.1 Million Rookie draft choice)
* Note: When they started winning, the Washington Capitals saw an increase their ticket sales. The capacity rose from 82% in 2008 to 96.9% in 2009; so this assumption has some basis in current facts. I personally believe that the Wizards could sell out every game if they were to trade for Bosh.
The Wizards current salary situation, if they were to trade for Bosh, would mean they would be approximately $11 Million over the Luxury tax; and Abe Polin would have to pay the $11 Million to the League. Not only that, but they would be over the Luxury Tax limit for the forseeable future as well.
Can Abe make that up somehow?
Well, an increase to 96% capacity means an additional 3,235 fans per night at the Verizon Center... X $50 per ticket X 41 home games = $6.6 Million in increased revenues.
Add at least 9 sell-out Home Playoff games... X 20,674 X $50 per ticket X 9 games = $9.3 Million in increased revenues.
Worst case scenario: Exit in round 2 of the Playoffs = $12.8 Million more in revenue
Most likely scenario: Get to the EC Finals = $15.9 Million more in revenue
Best case scenario: Get to the Championship series = 19 Million more in revenue
()
I believe I am being fairly conservative in my estimates here. I have not included parking, concessions or other sales in any of the numbers. Nor have I included any non-basketball related income. I've made the assumption that the Wizards will NOT increase ticket prices... (although, with Bosh, I could definately see that happening). I assumed a conservative 3 Home Playoff dates for each series - there could conceivably be 1 fewer or 1 more home dates, depending on home court advantage, how long each series lasts, etc...
There's a reason that teams like Boston, Los Angeles and Cleveland are the BEST teams in the League. They paid big bucks to have three or four of the best players on their teams; and then filled in around them with role players and minimum contract guys. In this League, it's the Stars that win games.
Boston has $55 Million tied up in three players - Allen $18.7M, Pierce $19.8M, and KG $16.4
Los Angeles has $64.6 Million tied up in four players - Kobe $23M, Gasol $16.4M, Bynum $13.8M and Odom $11.4M
Cleveland has $50.1 Million tied up in four players - James $15.8M, Wallace $14M, Ilgauskas $11.4M and Williams $8.8M
If the Wizards made a trade for Bosh, they would even the playing field... or perhaps even, tilt it a little their way:
Washingon would have $53.3 Million tied up in four players - Bosh $15.8M, Arenas $16.1M, Butler $11.6M and Jamison $9.8M
Bottom line? YES - the trade works economically. Abe Polin could definitely make back all of the $11 Million Luxury Tax... and then some. Even if they didn't get past the 2nd round, the Wizards would STILL do better than break even on the Tax issue. And best of all, the team would be in contention for several years... Even after re-signing Butler and Haywood to moderate increases, the Wizards would still be above break even on the tax . Each year, paying the tax, but more than making up for it by raking in the extra gate receipts and Home Playoff revenues.
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You've only looked at year 1
It’s the future years that are especially problematic from a luxury tax perspective. And as noted previously, the luxury tax hit would likely mean no resigning Haywood. (Because resigning him for, say, $8 million per would cost the team $16 million per year. That’s likely not going to happen.)
And you have made a couple of assumptions that are tenuous. First, the Wizards’ attendance will increase as a result of Arenas’ return. Attributing the entire increase to the addition of Bosh skews the numbers. Second, you have assumed that the revenues and costs this year were acceptable to the Wizards, so if increased revenues in future years offset increased costs in those years, the financial situation would remain acceptable.
Ambitious analysis, though.
haywood
They’re already paying Haywood $6 million. So if they resign him for $8 million, it will only cost them $4 million more, not $16 million. My own take is that if we get more wins (with or without Bosh), attendance will go up. If we don’t (again, with or without Bosh) attendance will suffer. That said, I’d be thrilled with a Blatche, Etan or James, + the 3,4,or 5 pick for Bosh.
well...
If they add Bosh, anyone they sign in the offseason after 2010 will effectively cost them twice what they’re signed for. If the Wizards take a more modest approach to the offseason (which I’m not arguing they do, but they could still add a decent vet), then they can sign and keep Haywood for $8 million and pay little or no more. But with Bosh there’s no way they can pull themselves down below the luxury tax cap, an $8 million contract will effectively be $16 million.
Now I’m not saying the Wizards should return below the tax cap, but I can see why they might want to stay within reason. Trading for Bosh will make the resigning of Haywood, Butler, McGuire, Young and Crittendon by 2011 all the more expensive.
Also, the Lakers are only paying Bynum like $3 million this year, and his contract swells to $12.5 million (according to hoopshype) the year that Odom comes off the books.
When you really look at the Lakers and Celtics salaries there really is little comparison with what the Wizards would have if they get Bosh and in the long run keep Arenas, Jamison, Butler, Haywood and mostly everyone else. The Lakers and Celts are essentially paying for 3 big contracts and the rest are all under $5 million.
The Cavs on the other hand are different. Their salary breakdown looks similar to what the Wizards might face if they added Bosh. Perhaps they’re proof that an organization can be financially successful with $90+ million in salaries, I don’t know. They certainly felt they could afford to drop a big expiring contract in Wally for Jamison’s $50 mil contract.
I agree with Rook’s assessment that his forecasts are conservative, though I also agree the return of Arenas, along with anyone else the Wizards get this offseason, will boost ticket sales. I don’t know, but I believe there are other revenue sources that would benefit however.
Anyways, nice analysis Rook even if I’m not so certain.
by Johnnie Futbol on May 1, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
nd as noted previously, the luxury tax hit would likely mean no resigning Haywood. (Because resigning him for, say, $8 million per would cost the team $16 million per year. That’s likely not going to happen
I don’t know… the numbers still work. They’re still bringing in more money over the next 3 years with Bosh – than without him.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=rxB-kUPpgzQmdr9gIY_4TfQ
And you have made a couple of assumptions that are tenuous. First, the Wizards’ attendance will increase as a result of Arenas’ return. Attributing the entire increase to the addition of Bosh skews the numbers.
Perhaps you are right… Maybe just go along the way they are now…. winning 41, 42 games a year… With Arenas, the attendance figures should be around 18,000 per night…. and they can bow out in the 1st round – - – That way, Abe can pocket the $3Million in 1st round gate receipts.
MOST of the increase in revenues in my calculations comes from Playoff games….
Second, you have assumed that the revenues and costs this year were acceptable to the Wizards, so if increased revenues in future years offset increased costs in those years, the financial situation would remain acceptable.
In the out years, (2010-11, 2011-12, etc..) you are correct. If they re-sign Brendan Haywood for roughly $8 Million (first year) and re-sign Butler to a max deal ($16.5 Million), and sign a mid-Late 1st Round Draft Picks each year ($1.6M Million) – then it’s not as rosy.
In 2010-11 the Wizards would have to pay a $16 Million tax…. (offset by a minimum of $15.9 Million in revenues – not including concessions). and in 2011-12 they would have to pay a $18.4 Million tax (offset by a minimum $15.9 Million in revenues)…
So – over a 3-year period (2009-10, 2010-11 and 2011-12) the Wizards would pay a little over $41 Million in Tax, but the anticipated revenues should be in the excess of $51 Million.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=rxB-kUPpgzQmdr9gIY_4TfQ
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Besides - what else is Abe going to do with his money?
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Sure adding Bosh would be great,
but how would we upgrade our backcourt? We really don’t know what we’re going to get from Arenas, Stevenson, Young and Crittenton.
We also don’t know if Butler can play shooting guard. This past season makes me wonder.
Arenas says he wants to be a more traditional point guard, but he still needs to prove it. He says he’s all about winning, but we haven’t seen him show a commitment to defense.
Forget the cap numbers
Bosh is overrated and SOFT….no thanks.
23 and 10 are really solid numbers, irrespective of individual opinions. Bosh being 25 is also a HUGE plus as well.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
Have you seen the guy play
He is no more of a player than Jamison. He is not physical, plays no defense, and is not a fit in Wizards lineup. Signing him you would be saying that Butler is a better 2 than small forward and I just don’t see that or that Jamison should be coming off the bench and he makes way too much for that.
There is a reason we are talking about this
If he was the player you guys think he was, he would not be a FA, the Raptors would do everything possible to resign him long term.
The problem isn't that Toronto doesn't want him
It’s that he doesn’t want Toronto.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
This is interesting
but I’m also not totally convinced Bosh would totally work from a basketball perspective, as you assume. I’m presuming your ideal lineup would then be Arenas-Butler-Jamison-Bosh-Haywood; Butler was a disaster at shooting guard and Jamison has said he doesn’t like playing small forward. Plus, you then have four guys looking to score. Unless you want to move Jamison to the bench, in which case I don’t think he’ll be thrilled with that.
Also, Cleveland was able to draft someone who became the best player in the league very quickly. Same with the Lakers and Bryant (they traded for him, but it was on draft night, so they essentially drafted him). Boston was only able to get some of the guys they did by trading away players thought to be part of their core, like Jefferson. I’m also pretty sure they drafted Pierce.
If it really was as easy as spending a lot of money to entice players to come to your franchise, a lot of them would have won the championship more recently than they have.
Now writing for Ridiculous Upside, where we think Trey Gilder could be the steal of the draft.
Also, Bosh only has one year on his contract
so if it doesn’t work, the Wizards will have traded a lot of their bench players away for…what?
Now writing for Ridiculous Upside, where we think Trey Gilder could be the steal of the draft.
Did you read the article.?
Also – check out the spreadsheet…. The assumption is a sign-and-trade for Bosh…. with Bosh getting a max deal.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=rxB-kUPpgzQmdr9gIY_4TfQ
Haywood gets paid… Butler gets paid….
And if the Wizards are in the Eastern Conference Series for the next 3 years, they make about $10 Million more than they spend in Tax…
If they go to the Finals, it’s an extra $3 Million each time…. (so as much as $19 Million over the tax amount spent)…
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
But what happens if they don't go to the conference or league finals?
Now writing for Ridiculous Upside, where we think Trey Gilder could be the steal of the draft.
This is really interesting analysis, Rook
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Yep, good analysis...
This scenario works for any other marquee player the team could look to obtain in a sign and trade… if not Bosh, it could as easily be Amare Stoudemire.
I also think Jamison, recent protestations aside, would take on the sixth man role if we brought in a front court player of this magnitude because I think he is very loyal to Mr Pollin and would see this as a real move towards taking the Wizards to the upper echelons of the NBA. Like other posters, I do not think Butler is comfortable at the 2 guard, nor is Jamison cut out to be a small forward.
This leaves open the problem of who would play the 2 guard, which remains a question mark. If Stevenson’s back heals, he actually does provide the skill set you would need in a starting lineup with Bosh, Butler, Haywood and Arenas. And if Arenas holds to his promise of working with Nick Young on other aspects of his game over the summer, there is no question about the scorng ability that Young brings either off the bench or as an eventual starter. Our high second round draft pick could also yield a potential prize like Wayne Ellington.
As far as resigning Haywood goes, the economics are not that hideous if the team shows over the course of 2009-10 that it is a crowd pleaser with clear upside as a championship contender. Also if management invests in a top-fllght big-man coach for McGee, his progress could be accelerated to the point that he would be ready to be an impact player by 2010-11.
We still need to wait on the ping pong balls, of course… which is just a matter of a couple of weeks at this point….
Meanwhile we have game 7 of Bulls-Celtics to enjoy and a whole lot more….
Bosh fits better
He’s a better defensive player than Stoudemire… and there are zero locker room issues surrounding him.
I’m not a proponent of moving Jamison to the SF and Butler to the SG… Instead, if they traded for Bosh, I’d simply move Jamison to the bench… (I know, it’s not that simple) – It alleviates so many issues.
1. Butler struggled playing the 2
2. Jamison cannot play defense – on the bench, his defensive deficiencies can be hidden
3. Moving Jamison to the bench gives that unit plenty of Offensive firepower, with Young
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
I also prefer Bosh...
I was just saying the economics would be similar wih Amare… and yes, either way, Jamison has to buy into the 6th man role…. The alternative of going for an exerienced high scoring 2-guard (Jason Richardson or Jamal Crawford, for example, as had been raised on the Post site, and by me hypothetically in the past) actually raises more complex problems in that there is only basketball allowed in play…
The Wizards will and must, one way or another, have more horses next year than this year,
If we got Bosh, I'd probably move Jamison to another team
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Third
"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck
by George Templeton on May 3, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe Cleveland or Dallas would take him off our hands
If we get Bosh, we don’t even need Antawn; we’ll have three 20 a game scorers plus Nick Young coming off the bench and Haywood contributing his ten or twelve a game. Like Khrabb said, there’s only one basketball to go around, and we would be better off if everyone else on the team was a role player/defensive stopper.
by pantslessyoda1 on May 4, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Anything is possible...
Mr Pollin voiced apprently genuine regrets when he sent Jack Marin off to Houston for the Big E back in the mid 70s and spoke similarly when he parted with Googs in the Webber deal in the early 90s… Basically, these were moves he felt he had to make to strengthen the team and both of them paid off, particularly in Hayes’ case.
However, I do not think that Mr. Pollin had ever basically promised those players, as he did when he re-signed Antawn last sumer, that they would end their playing days as Wizards and would see their numbers retired etc. (which we do much more rarely than other teams… Phil Chenier being the one absolutely deserving candidate I would think… ’course we have had less players reach great heights here, too…) Moving Jamison would be an extraordinarily emotional decision… though it might be a very rational move if it triggered a sequence of events that netted us both Bosh and a top-flight 2-guard.
I am interested in what others think here.
The Wizards Are Not About Making Money
I know we all say Abe Pollin is stingy, but when it comes straight down to it, Abe Pollin does not need the wizards to make money. He is already very very wealthy to begin, one of the biggest players in real estate in the mid atlantic area, the wizards are almost a philanthropic/fun venture for him. If he makes money on the side thats great. The biggest question economically with the Bosh trade is does Pollin really want to win a championship before hes six feet under. Thats the real question, and if the answer is yes, then their is really nothing stopping him from spending a few of his own bucks to make the wizards a championship contender.
Networth
On USA today its says his networth is around 180 million dollars
Abe Pollin
Not to hate on Abe and call him out on being able to give up a little dough for a good team, but their is not better owner in the NBA when it comes to being a great guy especially with philanthropy. The city essentially told him to buzz off when he wanted a new stadium. So instead of complaining he used millions of dollars of his own money to build one in china town, which i dont know if you all remember was a crappy part of town one you would not have gone to before the wizards stadium was there. So before you keep complaining about how bad the wizards have been over the past years just be thankful we have an owner who cares about our city!!!!!!
Thirded
I don’t know his net worth, but I get the feeling that he’s not in the upper level of NBA owners as far as wealth goes. I’ve sensed also that making the team break even isn’t necessarily a financial necessity, but an old school sense that there have to be limits. I think that’s why he’s stuck under the luxury tax cap. If I were him and I were indeed worth 180 million, I wouldn’t want to lose 30 million of it trying to make a sports franchise achieve.
Hopefully, like Rook has pointed out, the increased costs of success pay for themselves.
by MR on May 2, 2009 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions
So before you keep complaining about how bad the wizards have been over the past years just be thankful we have an owner who cares about our city!!!!!!
Who’s complaining?
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Nice research
Very interesting post. I like the crunching there.
Let’s get something straight, though… Actually, two things:
Number one, Abe will not any under circumstances trade Jamison. The Wizards have done a very good job building a nice team, but signing Etan to that huge contract was one of the few big mistakes. That’s because Abe has a man crush on him. That said, I love Jamison. Let’s not be so quick to get rid of him every year after he carries the team on his back. He doesn’t defend, so get a shooting guard who can, or, play a healthy Stevenson and Haywood. I think those guys and throwing JaVale in with Haywood for Twin Towers would make a very capable defensive team.
Number two, Abe is not going to go over the luxury tax any more than he already has. I don’t believe that he will carry a payroll as high as the Cavs, Lakers and Celtics. I know everyone here thinks he might because of that vague and non-committal statement earlier in the year, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
That said, I hope we draft a three-point specialist or go get one in a trade. Seems like Ernie has tons of flexibility to make a big move in the offseason. I trust him to make the right one. We need a 3-point jacker and a banger, along with a healthy Arenas, D-Steve (even though he has disappeared in the playoffs before and is Calbert Cheaney reincarnate) and Haywood. And haven’t we learned that all that is assuming a lot?
We have lots of trade pieces in Blatche, Young, Pecherov, Thomas, James and picks (including the one we get in the lottery). I look forward to November.
A lot of ifs....
A couple points I would add to this.
1 – I would also think yo get a nice revenue bump from the mass jersey sales for a new star in their first year with a new team. Not sure how merch sales fit into the team’s bottom line though.
2 – I’m not totally up on what drama there may be in Toronto, but even with an expiring contract in a year, why would Toronto trade Bosh for a bunch of terribles like the Wiz bench, what do the Wiz have to offer other than the big 3 and Haywood? I guess there are plenty of rubes out there who think Nick Young has a second dimension to his game or that Blatche really does have potential to get any better than he is now, or that Pecherov somehow deserves an NBA roster spot….I’m not seeing it. If I’m a GM, I would demand the #1 pick if I couldn’t get one or two of the starters, Bosh is a top 3 pick caliber player even with his expiring contract looming and the risk of getting nothing for him.
3 – You are assuming that Bosh isn’t gaming his exit to join Lebron somewhere (ie NY) as has been discussed ad nauseum the last year or so.
4 – Even with a lineup of Gil, Butler, Haywood, Jamison, and Bosh, that is still the Wiz playing defense 3 on 5. Until Gil proves otherwise, he can’t play D and we all know Jamison is a liability on that end regardless of whether he is assigned to guard the 3 or the 4. They will not advance far until they can play some defense. Plus you’ve destroyed your bench to get Bosh so that’s another liability so you have a gaping hole in the team there to fill.
So yeah I’d be all for this trade, no question whatsoever…I just have a hard time making an assumption that it makes them a “deep playoff team”. You still have a superstar coming off catastrophic knee injury, huge defensive holes, and no bench production to overcome. I don’t see that this lineup puts them ahead of Orlando, Cleveland, Boston, or potentially Chicago and Atlanta if they keep improving. Additionally, next summer the entire landscape of the league is going to change and its a good bet there will be another Boston-like superteam around Lebron wherever he lands.
Jersey sales
Really? Bosh isn’t even in the top 15. It would be nice to assume that just adding Bosh will bring in all sorts of revenue to the team through ticket sales, jersey sales, and whatever else, but Bosh isn’t really on the level where he makes that kind of difference.
I overall agree with you on no. 2, though I’m still a NY fan. I still haven’t heard a convincing case in all of these “should the Wizards trade for x player” posts for why anyone would want Etan Thomas or Mike James. Especially with Toronto, if Bosh’s contract is going to expire in a year anyway, why not see what a full season of Bosh+Marion can do?
Now writing for Ridiculous Upside, where we think Trey Gilder could be the steal of the draft.
You are assuming that Bosh isn’t gaming his exit to join Lebron somewhere (ie NY) as has been discussed ad nauseum the last year or so.
The assumption is that the trade comes with a long-term contract, like with KG in Boston.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Just plain stupid blog
You propose that Washington gets Bosh but without giving up any of their core…..so what exactly does Toronto get in return; flies, George W Bush and Songalia?
LOL
What a terrible article/blog. This was a fail on all levels.
Your pile of crap article looks purely at the numbers but fails to look at the REALITY of the trade. You assume a team throws away its FRANCHISE player for SCRAPS off the WORST TEAM IN THE NBA….hahahahahaha. Seriously, just stop. You would have to atleast throw in Jamison OR your first round pick from this year. Until you formulate a plausible trade scenario this article can’t be taken seriously and should be acknowledged as a sad attempt to increase hits.
Of course the trade would involve the first round pick
Shoot, it would probably involve two first round picks, a prospect or two, and some expiring contracts. We’re not that stupid.
This article was just intended to focus on whether or not it would feasible to add Bosh’s salary with the Big 3 already on the books. It’s impossible to speculate on what it would take to actually take to acquire Bosh since no one really knows if he’s on the market and what other teams would offer. Since we can’t really focus on that yet, we were simply taking a look at whether or not it makes economic sense. Doesn’t it make more sense to examine the economics before taking a look at what offers we would make?
If we were really looking for page hits, I’d just post the link to DeShawn Stevenson’s Twitter and be done with it.
Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.
by Jake Whitacre on May 3, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions
You should change your handle to "PointFail"
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Besides - plenty of other "articles" already went round-and-round about a potential Bosh trade
and what it might take to get him…
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Why even bother looking at the economics of an impossible situation?
You make a lot of assumptions but the only one that should have been made was that you can’t keep you core group together and add Bosh. For this article to be taken with any credibilty you have to present a case that could actually happen, like losing Jamison and your next two first round picks for Bosh, then look at the finances.
The way this is writen you might as well replace Bosh’s name with Kobe, Dwight, Lebron, ect. While you’re at it why not see if the economics work for you trading your entire bench for all of Team USA.
Wake up from that dream world of yours where other teams give away their best players for nothing and try writting an article worth reading.
Drugs are bad.
There's a difference
Kobe, Lebron, Dwight etc.. Their teams are WINNING.
Toronto is losing. They need to re-tool
LOSING teams trade their best players all the time…. (see Minnesota, Memphis, LA Clippers, etc…)
The whole Internet is rife with articles about Bosh moving on in 2010… Leaving Toronto for New York to play with LeBron…. or Leaving Toronto to play in Dallas… or going to Detroit. And Toronto will get NOTHING out of it if Bosh becomes a Free Agent and leaves… Boy, I wouldn’t want to be the GM in Toronto if that happens.
On the other hand – what is the fastest way to becoming a Championship team? Get 3 All-Star players together on the same team (Lakers, Boston, Spurs, etc…) – When is the next big Free Agent market? 2010
The Wizards just happen to have some contracts worth $14 Million that expire in 2010 (valuable to a team looking to cash in on the 2010 Free Agent class) – and some young talent – along with some high draft picks… Hmmm….. sounds like there’s perhaps some assets to offer Toronto… not just “scrubs” and “nothing”
OR
Toronto could trade Bosh straight up for another Star (like Jamison), and have the same situation there next year… one star, and a bunch of scrubs…. scrabbling for the Playoffs again.
OR
They can wait until 2010, and watch Bosh leave….
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
OK
So two posters have poo-poo’ed my post – not because they dispute any of my facts or figures…. but solely on the fact that they don’t believe that the Wizards can offer anything to Toronto in exchange for Bosh…
So, OK…. even though this has been discussed before – here’s my trade scenario:
Assumptions:
1. Toronto will lose Bosh to Free Agency in 2010
2. Bosh would sign an extension for a Sign-and-Trade to Washington
3. Washington’s 2009 1st round pick is NOT #1
4. Bosh WANTS to play in Washington, with Arenas, Butler and Jamison
(I don’t think any of those assumptions are show-stoppers…. and an argument can be made for each)
WIZARDS TRADE:
Mike James ($6.5 Million expiring contract)
+
Etan Thomas ($7.3 Million expiring contract)
+
Nick Young ($1.7 Million)
+
Andray Blatche ($3.0 Million)
+
JaVale McGee ($1.6 Million)
+
Wizards 2009 1st Round Draft Pick
+
2010 1st Round Draft Pick
($20.1 Million total Salaries)
TORONTO TRADES:
Chris Bosh ($17.1 Million)
+
Jason Kapono ($6.6 Million)
+
Toronto’s 2009 1st Round Draft Pick
($23.7 Million total Salaries)
Why Toronto does this trade:
Toronto gets three good young players (including two potential starters) and TWO 1st Round draft picks.
They get salary cap space in 2010, just when the 2010 Free Agent class is available.
Depending on where the cap is set, other moves, etc… Toronto could be as much as $30-$33 Million under the Salary Cap.
Enough to offer as many as 2 max contracts to Free Agents…
(The current CBA shows $13.7 – $16.5 Million as the Maximum salary for players with 1-9 years experience).
Some of the Free Agents available in 2010:
LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Dirk Nowitzki, Joe Johnson, Steve Nash, Josh Howard, Shaquille O’Neal, Amare Stoudemire, Kenyon Martin, Tracy McGrady, Yao Ming, Marcus Camby, Rudy Gay, Richard Jefferson, Michael Redd, Mike Miller, Rasual Butler, Tyson Chandler, Peja Stojakovic, Tony Battie, LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy, Bruce Bowen, Manu Ginobili, Roger Mason, Brendan Haywood
They could tender LeBron James and Dwayne Wade maximum salary offers… to play on the same team…. with Jose Calderon and Andrea Bargnani already on the team. Fill in the remaining roster with veteran Free Agents willing to play for the Vet Minimum salary for a chance at a Ring. There are certainly a lot of them to choose from.
Toronto could be back in the Championship hunt as early as the 2010-11 season.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
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