FanPost

NBA Lottery Odds

The NBA lottery is so stressful.  I find myself constantly checking the NBA standings, other bottom feeders’ schedules, and Hollinger’s “playoff odds” trying to guess what draft pick the Wiz will get.  Last night I went to Wikipedia and looked up NBA Lottery.  Due to the table below, I am now more stressed out and depressed.  If the Wizards finish with the 2nd worst record, they have a 19.9% of the 1st pick.  Here is the depressing part though; the team with the 2nd worst record only has a 38.7% of having the first or second pick and only a 55.8% chance of a top 3 pick.  That means 44.2% of the time the team with the 2nd pick ends up with the 4th or 5th pick.  A nearly 50/50 chance of moving out of the top 3, and a much higher probability of moving down than staying the same or moving up.  As you can see the odds only get worse if we end up with the 3rd worst record.  While I will be saying my Blake Griffin prayers every night, the odds are very stacked against us.

 

Seed

Chances

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

10th

11th

12th

13th

14th

1

250

.250

.215

.178

.357

2

199

.199

.188

.171

.319

.123

3

156

.156

.157

.156

.226

.265

.040

4

119

.119

.126

.133

.099

.351

.160

.012

5

88

.088

.097

.107

.261

.360

.084

.004

6

63

.063

.071

.081

.439

.305

.040

.001

7

43

.043

.049

.058

.599

.232

.018

.000

8

28

.028

.033

.039

.724

.168

.008

.000

9

17

.017

.020

.024

.813

.122

.004

.000

10

11

.011

.013

.016

.870

.089

.002

.000

11

8

.008

.009

.012

.907

.063

.001

.000

12

7

.007

.008

.010

.935

.039

.000

13

6

.006

.007

.009

.960

.018

14

5

.005

.006

.007

.982

 

 

This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.

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