Optimistic
I keep looking back to when the Wizards were in 1st place in the Eastern Conference...
The Naysayers incessantly point out that the Eastern Conference has gotten a whole lot better (Boston with KG, Cleveland, and even Atlanta, yada yada yada) - - - but what the "Eastern Conference has gotten better" crowd fails to realize is that the Wizards have become a LOT better too. Let's look at the facts.
It wasn't 5 years ago that Eddie Jordan coached the Eastern Conference All-Stars..... it was just two short years ago that the Wizards were leading the Eastern Conference. They did it with a bench that consisted of Donell Taylor, Jarvis Hayes, Darius Songaila, Michael Ruffin, Mike Hall, Calvin Booth, and Roger Mason (pre breakout, 2.7 ppg Roger Mason).... Haywood, the best defender on the team, was fighting with Eddie Jordan for minutes. They did it with a Coach that didn't or couldn't teach defense. They did it with a Coach that was clueless about proper rotations, player development and play calling.
Here are the reasons I'm convinced the Wizards will be competing for a top spot in the East next year:
- The Wizards are a better team than in 2006-07. Butler is a better player. Jamison is a better player. Andray Blatche is better. Even Darius Songaila is a better player than in 2006.
- The Wizard's bench is light years better than in 2006-07 - with players like Nick Young, Andray Blatche, Dominic McGuire, Javaris Crittenton, Darius Songaila, I believe the Wizards will have one of the deepest and most productive benches in the League.
- The return of Brendan Haywood. Nuff said.
- A new and improved Gilbert Arenas. Say goodbye to Agent Zero, and hello to the new Arenas.... In his return this year, I believe we got a glimpse of what Gil's game will be like next year. He showed us a high assist, low turnover game. A game that included pushing the ball up court for scintillating fast breaks. Incredible passing and court awareness. He showed us Gilbert Arenas, "Agent Facilitator" - Calm, cool and collected... Ready to lead a team full of great Offensive talent. But at no point during his return did I feel like he was playing out of control, or outside the Offensive scheme. We didn't see any of the infamous Agent Zero reckless drives to the basket hoping for And-1's, or pull up from 30 three pointers.
- Assets, assets, assets. Ernie Grunfeld has them, in spades. Expiring contracts. Young talent. High Draft picks. If the Wizards don't get a top 2 pick in the Draft Lottery, look for Ernie to improve the team through some type of creative trade this Summer. Perhaps picking up a veteran Shooting Guard that can defend.... or a defensive minded low post player..... or a dead eye 3-point shooter. Even if the Wizards DO get the # 1 pick, I think Grunfeld will still look to bolster the existing core with some veteran help.
- The anticipated hiring of Flip Saunders is a plus. Flip is a very good X's and O's play caller. His coaching turned the Detroit Pistons into an extremely efficient scoring machine, while still playing pretty good defense. His match-up zone defense is a much better scheme than the "protect-the-paint, give help inside but let shooters have all day long to set up and drain 3's" approach that we've seen over the last 4 years.
- The Flip Saunders - Gilbert Arenas connection. I think Flip can help Arenas become the best Point Guard in the Association. And yes, I mean better than Steve Nash, Deron Williams or even Chris Paul. Flip helped Chauncy Billups, at 30 years old, elevate his game from being considered a very good Point Guard, to a 4-time All-Star, Second Team All-NBA and MVP candidate. Billups was never an All-Star until he played for Saunders. How much can Saunders help Arenas improve? Since he's starting with a 3 time All-Star, I believe the improvement will be dramatic. Can Arenas average 12-13 assists per night, while limiting his turn-overs, and running a highly efficient Offensive team?
The pieces are all there - the All-Star talent (Butler, Jamison) - the athletic "fast break" players (Young, McGuire, McGee) - and the Coach that has done it before. Just need a couple of deadly 3-point shooters (Stevenson, ????), and Arenas' buy in to Saunders approach - and we could be hearing MVP chants again in the Verizon Center.
So, is this team again ready to lead the Eastern Conference? As constructed, NO. They're a 4th seed team... but let's not forget # 5 above. With a little luck, the Wizards may be adding Blake Griffin to the fold. AND, there's still assets to use for a trade. So they could get dramatically better, very fast.
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59 comments
Comments
YES YES YES!
Why be a Wizards fan if you can’t be a little optimistic?
Good analysis Rook!
by Johnnie Futbol on Apr 15, 2009 12:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's funny
“Optimistic” isn’t the first word that comes to mind when I think “Wizards fan.” This is a good glass-half-full look at next year, but…I don’t know. It still seems like a lot of “ifs.” I’m also not confident about the Wizards landing the #1 pick at all.
Now writing for Ridiculous Upside, where we knew who Mike Taylor was before you did.
by Jon L on Apr 15, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But every team has "ifs"
You want to see what happens if Lebron, Mo Williams, or Z gets injured? How about Howard, Lewis or Hedo? Pierce, Garnett, Allen? Boston’s got the biggest “ifs” in the conference.
I don’t think our “ifs” are so huge.
by MR on Apr 15, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FANTASTIC!
wonderful piece from the title to the analysis. Couldn’t have said it better myself!
by Bobtimist on Apr 15, 2009 12:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
THANK YOU
I’ve been thinking the same thing. You are spot on.
I think the thing we are missing that the past team had was Daniels. We’ll see in James or Critt can hold up the backup PG roll properly.
Along with the 3-pt shooter(s), I think we also need some big beef off the bench. Hopefully Thomas can fill that roll.
by MR on Apr 15, 2009 1:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Remember, Arenas is back
Assuming he takes the bulk of the PG minutes, we only need someone to come in for 10-12 minutes a night…..
JCritt should be able to handle that, no problem.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
by Rook6980 on Apr 15, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thomas and James
They are two of our biggest assets. Thats why nobody ever mentions their names as far as next seasons roster. So I wouldnt be too worried about them.
by lj15 on Apr 15, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think they could each see some minutes next year.
Without them our bench is extremely young.
If they are traded I’m assuming we would get some experienced talent in return.
by MR on Apr 15, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yea, don't be surprised to see both with us on opening night
Gruns might not be able to swing a trade to his liking this summer, especially if we get the #1 and keep Griffin…..he could be patient and use their contracts before next season’s trade deadline.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.
by Truth About It on Apr 15, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with it.
Let’s hope, despite mass complaints about Tapscott not playing the youth enough, that they still grew up a lot this year (Blatche notwithstanding)…because they certainly received a lot more playing time than expected.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.
by Truth About It on Apr 15, 2009 1:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
However....
Gilbert Arenas and Chris Paul are different PGs….not exactly comfortable with comparing them….or even saying that Gil can be better for a team than CP3……
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.
by Truth About It on Apr 15, 2009 1:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
I’m on board with everything except #7. Chris Paul is a completely different animal.
by Matt K. on Apr 15, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
Why isn’t Paul getting MVP consideration?
by MR on Apr 15, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because it's obvious...
Look at the Cavs on paper. Then look at Lebron’s stats.
No need to mention anyone else, except maybe Wade.
by se7en on Apr 15, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well Lebron is clearly MVP
but if Wade is getting some talk, why isn’t Chris Paul? I think he’s at least as V to his team.
by MR on Apr 15, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with you, MR
Though I’m a major Paul apologist; I tell friends he’s better than LeBron. Partially out of spite, but it’s pretty close to the truth to me.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Mike Prada on Apr 15, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He is
Simmons has him #2, the TNT guys were talking about all three of them.
by se7en on Apr 15, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They were talking about Lebron, Wade, CP? Not Kobe?
Everything I’ve heard (and I don’t read a lot outside of this blog) is Lebron, Wade, Kobe.
If I’m wrong then I’m relieved. I think it’s 1) Lebron 2) CP.
by MR on Apr 15, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Mike Prada on Apr 15, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
The Washington Wizards: providing career scoring nights for unknown opposing bench players since 2004.
by mamemimo on Apr 15, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And next year - Arenas will be in the discussion
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
by Rook6980 on Apr 15, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait
You telling me that if Arenas comes back, and the Wizards start to win…. and he posts 20-22 points a night, and 12-13 assists – - – you wouldn’t be comfortable comparing him to Chris Paul? You don’t think those would be MVP numbers?
I truly believe that Arenas can score less, and assist more.
1. He doesn’t have to carry the scoring load any more…
2. He’s always been a fabulous passer, it’s just that a lot of his possessions ended in him taking a shot.
3. If he takes 6 fewer shots, but instead turns those possessions into assists…. voila: 20points 11assists
Right now, there’s only one 20-10 guy in the league (20 points, 10 assists) – and that’s Chris Paul…. (actually , 21.9 ppg 11 assists)
I believe Arenas can be a 20-10 player next year.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
by Rook6980 on Apr 15, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chris Paul does it on a slow-paced team with absolutely no talent
While turning it over far less.
He also is infinently better on defense.
Gil will never be as good as Chris Paul. Chris Paul is arguably as good as Magic was.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Mike Prada on Apr 15, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love Chris Paul
but you’ve managed to find my limit
Chris Paul is arguably as good as Magic was
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
by MR on Apr 15, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
His last two seasons are on par with anything Magic did, statistically. And Paul did it without anywhere close to Magic’s supporting cast.
Now, longjevity is an issue before the comparison is settled, of course, but as of right now, it’s a very fair comparison.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Mike Prada on Apr 15, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
CP has not done enough yet to be put in Magic’s category.
Maybe someday, but not yet.
by MR on Apr 15, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait a minute
A team with NO TALENT?
David West ain’t chopped liver (2-time All-Star)…. neither is Peja Stojakovic (3 time All-Star)..
Rasual Butler is good enough to garner interest from some here on BulletsForever in a potential trade….
James Posey was a guy that everyone here wanted on the Wizards
and Tyson Chandler is a better rebounder than Haywood… and at least as good a defender.
Matter of fact, the Hornets look eerily similar to the 2006-07 Washington Wizards…. The BIG THREE All-Stars. A defensively challenged PF that has been an All-Star twice. A SF that has been an All-Star 3 times. A competent defensive minded shot blocking center. A defensive minded Shooting Guard that shoots a good percentage from 3, and puts up about 11 points per game. AND NO BENCH.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
by Rook6980 on Apr 15, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Peja's done
Now writing for Ridiculous Upside, where we knew who Mike Taylor was before you did.
by Jon L on Apr 15, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
David West isn't any better than Jamison
Peja’s old and can’t play anymore (have you seen him at all this year?). Butler’s average. Posey’s a nice seventh man. Chandler’s injured and really has had only one good year in his career (07/08).
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Mike Prada on Apr 15, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Arenas putting up 20-10 would be awesome
That’s pretty optimistic though, but I guess it’s possible.
by Matt K. on Apr 15, 2009 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can I have some of what you are smoking?
You have described very well what is known as the best case scenario, and there are legitimate reasons to hope for and perhaps even expect parts of what you described. But let me begin the poking of holes segment of the show:
- Can we, as intelligent, responsible adults, agree to never again mention the whole, “The Wizards were in first place for two days two years ago” argument? That’s like me entering a 10K race, leading at mile 3, then slowing, dropping out at mile 4, puking on the side of the road, and then for the rest of time claiming that I won that race.
- If you are going to make that argument, then you cannot make point #4. Gilbert was absolutely on fire for two months during the stretch, which allowed the Wizards to be in first place. If he had continued at that pace, he would have won the MVP, and probably already would be in the hall of fame. To claim that he is now even better than he was that first 1/2 of a year is delusional. We don’t even know if he can stay healthy.
- You say, "what the “Eastern Conference has gotten better” crowd fails to realize is that the Wizards have become a LOT better too. Let’s look at the facts." Here’s one fact: 19-62.
- I don’t think that we know yet what impact this year will have on the players and team. How has this year affected the psyches of Butler and Jamison? They now know that they are not capable of winning games on their own (despite Butler’s repeated proclamations that he is an all-star). That can be a good thing, but it also can undermine their confidence. How has this year affected the young guys? Losing breeds losing — how will it manifest itself with the Wizards? Time will tell.
- I agree that the Wizards have a much more talented bench than in prior years. It is mostly young and inexperienced, though. In two years, it should be great. Now, however, it’s up and down.
- I also agree that overall, the offensive talent on the team has improved. There’s only one ball, though. I haven’t seen anything to indicate that the Wizards players or coaches have made any strides on the defensive end. Without improvement there, there is a ceiling to how far the Wizards can go.
by disgrunted on Apr 15, 2009 2:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well...
I’d have to say that to make your first scenario more accurate, someone would have to come punch you in the stomach multiple times during the race…..perhaps it was the old mascot, Hoops, with a Curse O’ Les Boulez t-shirt on.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.
by Truth About It on Apr 15, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How's this for poking holes?
Can we, as intelligent, responsible adults, agree to never again mention the whole, "The Wizards were in first place for two days two years ago" argument?
No. Why would we not look at the un-injured track record? Sure it’s no promise, but why should we ignore it? It’s not the “leading the conference” that is important, it’s the fact that they were among the best teams in the league and were beating everybody.
Here’s one fact: 19-62.
Irrelevant. If you need a recap of this year’s problems then you haven’t been paying attention (which I know you have). If the injury bug repeats itself then all bets are off, otherwise I don’t think 19-62 has any bearing.
I don’t think that we know yet what impact this year will have on the players and team.
Could go either way. Butler seems to be using it as motivation.
(Bench) is mostly young and inexperienced
There is enough experience among those we need to rely on (Songila, James, Young, Blatche, McGuire)
I haven’t seen anything to indicate that the Wizards players or coaches have made any strides on the defensive end
Really? How about McGuire? How about Flip?
by MR on Apr 15, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smoking
^Hit a lot of what I was thinking.
-that single data point is a joke. That team won nothing yet we cling desperately the tiniest of success.
-The East is MUCH better. Atlanta, Orlando, even Philly, the Pistons are rebuilding and still managed to make the playoffs. The Bulls are constantly in flux so who knows. Wade is back and the Heat are back in the playoffs. The Cavs went from good to dominant.
-Using Gilbert’s TWO games this season as a jumping off point for projecting the future makes no sense to me. Its not a large enough sample. Even Gilbert said he was just getting his legs and experimenting.
-The bench is stronger, but there are huge holes. There is no veteran defensive presence at C. Blatche prefers the perimeter and chucking up shots. Nick Young does one thing, score. McGuire does everything else, a keeper. NY can’t be counted on for 3’s either. Songalia has a nice jump shot but can’t defend his position and often gets pushed around, unable to hold his position. Given that Jamison has the same liabilities its not a great fit for the roster. McGee is a work in progress as a backup 4.
-the entire premise is not a best case scenario, in some respects its a magical case scenario. Gilbert averaging 12 or 13 assists when Paul has led the NBA with 11? Gilbert has never averaged more than 6 assists in a season. Everyone is back and better than ever (yet the rest of the league is stagnant) and everyone stays healthy.
If this team really is in a “win now” mode than the bench has to reflect that. Those assets need to be turned into a reserve C that can defend the rim and more players with range. The 3 point shooting on this team is just fugly. Ernie needs to find some vets with playoff experience to sprinkle with all the young kids. Even then the bar for this team is set at 43 wins, which is what they accomplished without Gilbert but with Haywood.
by Jheiser3 on Apr 16, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So
You’re saying that the Wizards, who were a 43-44 win team with Haywood, Butler, Jamison, etc.. (but without Arenas)….
And they add Arenas (a 3-time All-Star and former 2nd Team All-NBA), and got their young guys (bench) a bunch of playing time and experience this year….. and they add a top 5 pick in the Draft.
And the Wizard’s 2009-10 bar is set at………………..43 wins?
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
by Rook6980 on Apr 16, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps you should write the "Pessimistic " story.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
by Rook6980 on Apr 16, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jumped the gun on point 7. He will not be better than Paul or Williams.
by Fundefined on Apr 15, 2009 2:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I’ve learned not to get my hopes up, it only hurts more when guys get injured. I’m going to take it one event at a time, starting with Boston tonight, then the official Flip signing, then the lottery.
Backbone of the DMV
by NY1 on Apr 15, 2009 3:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The 2009-10 roster is NOT set in stone...
Look for EG to find some interesting complementary players. I think Mr Pollin wants to relive 1977-78.
Saunders is clearly Motta redux, there are eerie similarities there.
I can imagine an addition along the lines of Shawn Marion, Rasheed Wallace or Mike Miller…
Get out the magic eight balls.
by khrabb on Apr 15, 2009 3:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I hope you're right, but...
Jamison will be 33 next year and we still don’t have a great idea about what Gilbert will be capable of on a nightly basis throughout an entire season. Given age in the first case and health/explosiveness uncertainty in the second, I’d say the expectation for both those guys has to be substantially lower than it was a couple of years ago. Granted, Jamison did not show his age this year, but decline tends to set in quickly once it sets in, and, well, to repeat, he’ll be 33.
The age of Jamison and health of Arenas overwhelms everything else on your list, in my opinion.
I also think — and again, I wish I didn’t — that you’re going way overboard on the strength of their bench. Dominic’s pretty solid, and improving; Blatche is ok (and a good value, given his contract); Songaila’s respectable — but none of those guys would qualify as a top tier second-string guy. JaVale has tremendous upside, but is raw, and all things considered, not a clear asset when he’s on the court. And Nick Young just sucks; what’s his PER? 11? 12? Their bench is nowhere near as good as the bench of elite teams (say, the Lakers, where Lamar Odom is the first guy off the bench, or the Rockets or the Blazers or the Celtics etc etc.)
I think they’ll be a playoff team next year, assuming Gil is relatively healthy, but I think it’s optimistic indeed to think this team will go past the first round — unless they luck out and get Black Griffin, of course.
by thedonald on Apr 15, 2009 3:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
hmm...
There have been many many posts about Jamison – his age – the type of game he employs – and why his imminent decline is grossly overstated. Jamison does not rely upon athleticism, quickness, jumping ability, strength or anything else that declines with age. His game is all about angles, positioning, guile, smarts, etc… AND the fact that he can shoot from almost any weird, twisted and contorted position.
From what I saw of Gilbert Arenas this year, and granted it was a small sample, but I certainly didn’t see the guy that was dragging his leg (like last year). In addition, I saw the player that almost everyone here wants him to become. A facilitator, rather than a gunner. If Gilbert Arenas it not really 100%, and he can come back this year and put up 10 assists per night in only 31 minutes per game – I think we should all be excited to see him next year for 35-40 minutes a night. I, for one, am hoping that Gil cannot “explode” off that leg as in the past… That we’ll see fewer kamikaze drives to the basket, ending in crazy off-balance shots hoping for AND-1’s. Here’s hoping that he’ll have to adapt his game to be more like a pass-first PG, and use his unbelievable gifts (court sense, passing ability, etc…) to get others easy shots… Certianly, Flip Saunders was able to help Chauncy Billups become that kind of player….
As for the Bench…. Remember, I was comparing the current bench against the 2006-2007 bench. If you don’t think that Nick Young, Andray Blatche, Dominic McGuire, Javaris Crittenton and JaVale McGee aren’t better than Donell Taylor, Jarvis Hayes, Michael Ruffin, Mike Hall, Calvin Booth, and Roger Mason – then there’s no way to convince you of ANYTHING. Oh, and by the way, Nick Young’s per is 13 – and he doesn’t suck. When his is given consistent minutes, he produces. For instance, from March 11th til now, Nick has averaged 28 minutes per game and during that span has averaged 13.8 points per game. The injuries this year have benefited the young guys on the bench by providing opportunities for playing time. That will translate to a very good bench next year.
There are very few teams that bring a big time scorer off the bench like the Lakers do with Odom.
By the way, talk about a bench that sucks, which players on the Rocket’s bench are better than the Wizards? – Carl Landry (at 9.3ppg)? or Von Wafer? or perhaps Brent Barry? Kyle Lowry (reject from the Grizzlies?)? Chuck Hayes , who plays 12 minutes per game and averages 1.3 ppg?
And the Celtics? Eddie House is OK, but Nick Young scores more and is younger. Glen “Big Baby” Davis? He scores about 6.8 ppg and rebounds 3.9 – I’d rather have Blatche’s 10 and 5 and 1 blocks (in roughly the same minutes).. Tony Allen? no thanks!… Leon Powe? Songaila scores the same (7.5ppg). He doesn’t rebound as well as Powe, but Songaila doesn’t turn the ball over as much, and is a better passer. Brian Scalabrine, Mikki Moore – scrubs… I’d much rather have McGee and McGuire…
And the last point…. Blake Griffin will NOT make the Wizards incrementally better in the short term. He does NOT make them a contender… What makes the Wizards contenders next year……… what gets them over the hump…… to the next step………. will be whatever moves Ernie Grunfeld makes over the Summer and at the Trade Deadline…. THAT’s why the Wizards will contend.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
by Rook6980 on Apr 15, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Daniels was on the 06-07 team
as was Thomas
by MR on Apr 15, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, you’re certainly right that Jamison’s scoring style is pretty much unique, and less dependent on strength & athleticism than most players. But that’s not true of defense (which can be expected to get even worse) and rebounding. More important, do you really think he can continue to be a high-minutes guy night in and night out for much longer? Injuries multiply and recovery takes longer with age. It’s certainly possible he’ll be fantastic again next year; the odds, I think, would say he won’t be as good as he was this year.
As for Arenas, I couldn’t agree more that if he finally starts playing smarter, he will be a much improved player! And yes, his play in the few games he played this year was encouraging. It seems like a big assumption that he will do that — this is Gil, after all — but I think there’s a decent chance he will. My point had to do purely with his health. I think, given the past 2 years, that it’s not very safe to assume that he’ll play close to 82 games next year, never mind whether he’ll be able, say, to play any defense when he’s on the court.
The bench is definitely better than 2 years ago, when it was historically bad (although as someone else has pointed out, you’re leaving out AD, who was better then than anyone that the Wiz now bring off the bench). But that doesn’t mean it’s a good bench. The Rockets, when healthy bring both Battier and Carl Landry off the bench — and both those guys are miles and miles ahead of any Wizards bench player. Lowry and Von Wafer are more like the caliber of player that the Wiz bring off the bench.
by thedonald on Apr 15, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Key word - Healthy
And Houston has as many health problems as the Wizards – which is why Landry and Battier are STARTING…. Therefore, their bench sucks.
I believe Jamison has 2 good years left…. And by the way, his rebounding is also not done with any athleticism, strength or jumping ability… He rebounds using positioning, blocking out and by having great hands, so I don’t see that falling off any time soon…. By the time Jamison is ready to become the 6th man (bench), either Blatche, Griffin, or JaVale McGee will be ready for the Starting lineup… (Yes, JaVale McGee… he has a lot of PF attributes….)
As for Gilbert’s health…. Yes, he’s had 3 surgeries on that knee. But they weren’t torn ligaments…. or major reconstruction… It was a torn meniscus – a relatively minor problem as knee injuries go… Not a devastating injury like Shaun Livingston… or Penny Hardaway; and the only reason Arenas didn’t come back 100% THIS year was his refusal to stick to the prescribed rehabilitation regimen. Look it up. Professional Athletes have torn meniscus surgeries all the time – and return to 100% form all the time. It’s not a career threatening situation… NOR does ONE injury increase the odds for future injury… As long as he strengthens the knee, and he’s has the the entire year and all this Summer to do so, he’ll come back and play 82 games next year.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
by Rook6980 on Apr 15, 2009 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and as for Jamison's defense
It CAN’T get worse…
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
by Rook6980 on Apr 15, 2009 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One thing I will say
Is that our “first in the East in 2007” thing does need to be taken with several grains of salt, for the following reasons:
1. It was for a day or so that just so happened to coincide with the cutoff date for when they decide who coaches the all-star team. We weren’t in first place at the time the all-star game was played.
2. Our point differential was abysmal. Even though we were something like 10 games over .500, our point differential was pretty close to even. It might have been negative, I don’t remember off the top of my head. We were playing tons of close games and escaping in them against poor competition. Point differential is always a better indicator of future success, and it is true that we started to tail off even before Gil’s injury.
3. Our record was mostly built on the heels of a hot December, when Gilbert was shooting the lights out thanks to the new synthetic ball. He’s never come close to his shooting percentages in December 2006.
4. The East was weaker at the top that year. The top team in the East won 53 games that year. We were leading the East just being 10 games over .500.
Now, all that said, we were doing it with literally no bench (Songaila was injured, so our only bench guys were AD and Jarvis Hayes), with two centers feuding and Haywood not playing enough and without some of the young talent we currently possess, so it is fair to point to that as a sign of our potential.
But let’s say it like it was. Instead of it being “we were first in the East,” it really should be “we were a top team in a very weak Eastern Conferece, leading our division, with Gilbert shooting the lights out, while not having a bench and not having an infusion of young talent.”
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Mike Prada on Apr 15, 2009 3:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Also
I can’t, under any circumstances, get on board with #7.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Mike Prada on Apr 15, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ut let’s say it like it was. Instead of it being "we were first in the East," it really should be "we were a top team in a very weak Eastern Conferece, leading our division, with Gilbert shooting the lights out, while not having a bench and not having an infusion of young talent."
yet beating a lot of top Western teams too.
The “first” thing is a red herring. Who cares if we were first, second, whatever. The team was one of the top five in the NBA the last time our big 3 were all healthy.
by MR on Apr 15, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't disagree MR
But there are tons of reasons to take that standing with a grain of salt. Tons.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
by Mike Prada on Apr 15, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
At the time of Gil’s injury we showed every signs of taking the next step. We had gotten to the second round and lost a close series. We were tearing up the league on BOTH sides of the Mississippi.
I think that is a pretty strong indicator that the team can continue to take steps. All of the big 3 AND Haywood are all better now than at that time. They have all matured, which is the growth that we are talking about.
by MR on Apr 15, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There are a couple of key reasons
1. The “We were #1 in the East” argument is based on the view that the correct measure of that team was one data point — the 27-17 record the Wizards had after the win against Detroit. Why isn’t the 6-9 record the team had on 12/1/06 just as valid a measuring stick? Or the 14-12 record on Christmas Day? Or the 31-25 record on 2/28/07?
2. It seems that really good teams can weather injuries. When Garnett gets injured, the Celtics keep winning. When Jamison got injured in that Detroit game, the winning slowed dramatically. With Arenas and Haywood were out this year, 19-62. Basing a projection of a team on everyone always being healthy is not realistic. It’s a contact sport, and injuries are going to happen (as we well know).
by disgrunted on Apr 15, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
1. I believe that the correct measure is that at the time the Wiz proved that they COULD be among the top teams in the league, not that they WERE the best team in the league.
2. The Wiz have weathered a lot of injuries, but this year there were just too many. Not just Gil and Bren. AD and Stevenson were never right, nor was Thomas. Last year showed that they could hold the fort down with injuries, but there are limits.
by MR on Apr 15, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree partly
Good teams can weather injuries – for a SHORT TIME. See Garnett this year with the Boston Celtics….
But that just makes my point… Good teams have a good bench… Bench guys step in, other Stars step up… and when you’re head and shoulders above most of the rest of the teams in your Conference, you continue to win…
The Wizards had a terrible bench in 2006-07…. I mean really, really terrible. So when you have a good starting 5, but a wretched bench, and a starter goes down – the inevitable happens. Losing.
AND, let’s remember that Boston has lost Garnett for about 20-25 games…. All the other Boston starters have played at least 75 games or more. And their bench has been uninjured as well (House-80 games played; Powe – 70 games played ; Glen Davis – 75 games played; etc…)
NO TEAM – including Boston could withstand losing their best player, their starting Center, their back-up Center, their Starting Shooting Guard, AND then lose additional players to injury as well (Caron Butler lost 15 games this year)… NO TEAM.
Yes – injuries are going to happen…. but it’s the teams that stay healthy (like Boston did ALL LAST YEAR; Like Cleveland has this year – their top 7 rotation players have averaged 74 games played this year.) that will dominate the standings.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
by Rook6980 on Apr 15, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Same
I’m trying to think of another organization in sports that is living so much in the past. Or, one that bases their plan for the future on a single data point that only existed for a day or so. My first instinct when I hear people repeat it is that they’re joking. Its a set up right?
Cleveland made huge changes since they lost in the Finals but the Wizards? They don’t let everything that happened since them dampen their delusions of contending. Minor tweaks, thats all they need.
by Jheiser3 on Apr 15, 2009 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course...
>1. It was for a day or so that just so happened to coincide with the cutoff date for when they decide who coaches the all-star team. We weren’t in first place at the time the all-star game was played.
The end of the Wizards run at #1 also coincided with Jamison’s injury on a night the Wizards beat Detroit.
Not sure I can get on board with #7 either, but I kinda like the “sky’s the limit” point of view. If Arenas is 100% healthy next year, and he focus’s more on leading this team than on individual accomplishments, than I’m very curious to see what kinda player that Arenas would be.
by Johnnie Futbol on Apr 15, 2009 4:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think we saw a glimpse of what Arenas can be
This year, when he came back….. Averaging double digit assists… in only 32 minutes a night.
When he was in, the Offense looked dynamic – almost unstoppable.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
by Rook6980 on Apr 15, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah we caught a glimpse
Hard to know for certain, but those two games were enough to get me excited.
That Cavs game though, what can we make of that? During the two Cavs games back around the new year the Wiz looked like one of the best teams in the NBA as well.
Out of all the 7 points you list above, perhaps the one that gets least attention that I think is pretty significant is the development/return of Haywood. Haywood a year ago was a much better center than he was during the first half of the 2006/07 season. When people talked about the “big 3” years ago, no one would even consider lumping Haywood in with that bunch, but as far as I’m concerned Haywood is a difference maker on that team. I started to feel that way at the end of last season fwiw (and became convinced of it when Haywood leveled Lebron in the playoffs).
by Johnnie Futbol on Apr 15, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
Haywood has had very steady numbers his entire career… Look at his per 40 minutes, pace adjusted numbers – and you’ll see that he’s extremely consistent – even when his minutes were being jerked around by Eddie Jordan…. even when he was feuding with Etan Thomas….
The only reason it looked like he had a “breakout” year in 2007-08 is because he got more minutes.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
by Rook6980 on Apr 15, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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