Ed Tapscott's 7-Game Philosophy

by Jon L on Mar 3, 2009 9:36 AM EST

[Ed. Note: Promoted from the FanShots, mainly because it's outstanding and it's something that I've wondered about since Tapscott took over but never had a chance to fully dive into. -Jake]

Based partly on on offshoot of the "Arenas as leader" discussion, I decided to look at Coach Tapscott's "seven game chunk" philosophy to see how exactly those "chunks" have gone. (Not really explained, but Tap talking about it can be found here), among other places. Specifically, I wanted to look at the Wizards' record and overall performance, as well as the playing time given to various players during those blocks.

Ed Tapscott replaced Eddie Jordan as head coach in late November, with the first game coming against the Golden State Warriors on Nov. 25, so we'll start from there. Last night's game marked the end of the most recent "chunk. For playing time, I averaged the numbers by seven games, unless a player was unavailable. So I counted DNP-CDs, but not DNP-injuries. There was also some rounding involved in the minutes to the nearest :30. Finally, I'm going to apologize in advance for the length of this thing.

11/25-12/6: Team 2-7; margin of victory avg. (mova) 22 pts.; margin of defeat avg. (moda) 6.8 pts.
Andray Blatche- 20:40 avg.
Juan Dixon- 3:00 avg. (5 DNP-CDs)
JaVale McGee- 16:08 avg.
Dominic McGuire- 10:56 avg.
Darius Songaila- 20:08 avg.
Nick Young- 20:34 avg.

12/9-12/21: Team 1-6; mova 13 pts; moda 16.3 pts.
Andray Blatche- 26:08 avg.
Javaris Crittenton- 3:10 avg. (6 games, 2 DNP-CDs)
Juan Dixon- 20:25 avg. (1 DNP-CD)*
JaVale McGee- 9:55 avg.
Dominic McGuire- 14:08 avg.
Darius Songaila- 18:51 avg.
Nick Young- 13:21 avg.

12/23-1/4: Team 3-4; mova 4.67 pts.; moda 9.75 pts.
Andray Blatche- 26:21 avg.
Javaris Crittenton- 6:04 avg. (3 DNP-CDs)
Juan Dixon- 10:38 avg. (3 DNP-CDs)
JaVale McGee- 4:25 avg. (2 DNP-CDs)
Dominic McGuire- 31:16 avg.
Darius Songaila- 18:34 avg.
Nick Young- 20:17 avg.

1/6-1/16: Team 1-6; mova 7 pts.; moda 7 pts.
Andray Blatche- 26:00 avg.
Javaris Crittenton- 20:00 avg.
Juan Dixon- 2:21 avg. (3 DNP-CDs)
JaVale McGee- 7:38 avg. (3 DNP-CDs)
Dominic McGuire- 24:21 avg.
Darius Songaila- 18:38 avg.
Nick Young- 27:56 avg.

1/19-1/30: Team 1-6; mova 3 pts.; moda 15.3 pts.
Andray Blatche- 29:18 avg. (5 games, missed two to injury)
Javaris Crittenton- 12:42 avg.
Juan Dixon- 7:17 avg. (4 DNP-CDs)
JaVale McGee- 13:51 avg.
Dominic McGuire- 33:08 avg.
Darius Songaila- 21:17 avg.
Nick Young- 15:17 avg.

1/31-2/11: Team 2-5; mova 7 pts.; moda 19.4 pts.
Andray Blatche- missed entire "chunk" due to injury
Javaris Crittenton- 26:34 avg.
Juan Dixon- 6:51 avg. (2 DNP-CDs, but also played :13 on 2/11)
JaVale McGee- 22:51 avg.
Dominic McGuire- 29:08
Darius Songaila- 22:00 avg.
Nick Young- 28:12 avg.

2/17-3/2: Team 3-4; mova 14; moda 13.5
Andray Blatche: 22:51 avg.
Javaris Crittenton: 20:45 avg. (6 games, missed 1 with the flu)
Juan Dixon: 4:51 avg. (5 DNP-CDs)
JaVale McGee: 13:43 avg.
Dominic McGuire: 35:51 avg.
Darius Songaila: 23:57 avg.
Nick Young: 18:04 avg.

Notes:
Blatche replaced McGee as the starting center on 12/15, in the middle of the 12/9-12/21 block, but came off the bench in the first six games of the last block. McGuire moved into the starting lineup on 12/23. Songaila has been in and out of the starting lineup at various points, including starting all of the last two blocks. NY also started a few games back in December.

Crittenton's first game as a Wizard was 12/11. His PT jumped up in the 1/6-1/16 block, but the increase actually started during the previous one, at the start of January. So that doesn't quite track with Tap's philosophy. Also, his minutes from 1/30 (20:12) track more closely with the succeeding block, rather than the games part of 1/30's chunk.

*One note about Dixon's PT in the 12/9-12/21 block: he racked up 5 straight DNP-CDs from 11/27-12/5, then played 12 minutes in the 12/6 game, which was still part of the previous chunk. So he actually played in 7 straight games, they just didn't quite line up with the "seven game" bit. He followed those seven games with three more DNP-CDs.

Findings:
The two steadiest players in terms of minutes have been Songaila and Blatche. The biggest beneficiary of Blatche's recent injury was JaVale McGee, who saw his average minutes increase by a full 8 minutes, then had it drop almost equally when Blatche came back.

Speaking of McGee, his PT dropped off pretty dramatically once he moved to the bench in December, but he's gradually worked his way into more. On the flipside, Blatche's time increased a little bit and McGuire's PT jumped way up once he became a starter, though it still hasn't been entirely consistent. Looking at these three players, I think it's a fair conclusion that Tap makes a relatively concrete distinction between "starters" and "bench players." Where other teams might have reserves who play more than some starters (Nate Robinson comes to mind), that doesn't seem to be Tap's preference. Even Songaila, who's overall minutes have been pretty steady, dropped a few minutes on average once Blatche became the starter. The one exception I can think of was when McGee was starting, and still would play only 10-15 minutes a game.

More than pretty much anyone else, NY's minutes have been over the place. If you had a hard time reading the above, or you skipped some of it, here are his avg. minutes by chunk- 20:31-13:21-20:17-27:56-15:17-28:12-18:04. I agree with some other folks here that it's hard to expect consistent production from Young when he gets yanked around like that.

As you can see, Crittenton's minutes jumped wayyyy up in January. When he first came to Washington in the trade Tap said he wanted to keep Crittenton in the bench before he learned the system, and once he did he benefitted. However, Tap now seems to be treating him a bit like NY, with his last four averages being 20:00-12:42-26:34-20:45. Crittenton's increased minutes seem to have come mostly at the expense of Juan Dixon, who was averaging 20 minutes at one point in December. As Crittenton's minutes increased, Dixon's decreased. Then again, Dixon only averaged 3 minutes in Tap's first "chunk," so it may just be more of Tap's yo-yo-ing.

I'll also say that while I had some general idea of what these minutes would probably look like, I didn't have any real preconceived notions going in. McGee's recent relatively-steady-increase in PT was somewhat of a surprise, and is encouraging. I had an idea NY's minutes would look like they do, but actually seeing it layed out there is disappointing. I've made my feelings on the vets/youth issue known in other areas here, but on the whole I don't think it reflects much more than Tap's inability to manage a roster (among other things).

In summation, what to make of Tap's "seven game chunk" philosophy? In general, he seems to stick to it, particularly where playing time is concerned. There are a few instances where how he works the roster doesn't quite line up, but I think some of the questions we as fans seem to have about playing time and performance are connected to this idea.

Seven games isn't a very large sample size, but it may also be of note that the most successful seven-game stretch occurred following McGuire's move into the starting lineup. The team hasn't been able to sustain that success, but it's possible that game the team some energy. Wins during that stretch came against Oklahoma City, Houston and Cleveland, so they beat some talented teams. Other than that, though, there doesn't seem to be much correlation between who's playing and how the team does. That, to me, raises questions to the value of the "seven game" idea. It seems clear to me that Tap does seem to operate that way, and it has affected a few players in either positive or negative ways, but it hasn't seem to had much effect on the Wizards' overall performance.

This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.

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Minutes by player

Here are the playing time average breakdowns by player, which hopefully makes comparison a little easier:

Blatche – 20:40/26:08/26:21/26:00/29:18/(n/a)/22:51

Crittenton – (n/a)/3:10/6:04/20:00/12:42/26:34/20:45

Dixon – 3:00/20:25/10:38/2:21/7:17/6:51/4:51

McGee – 16:08/9:55/4:25/7:38/13:51/22:51/13:43

McGuire – 10:56/14:08/31:16/24:21/33:08/29:08/35:51

Songaila – 20:08/18:51/18:34/18:38/21:17/22:00/23:57

Young – 20:34/13:21/20:17/27:56/15:17/28:12/18:04

by Jon L on Mar 3, 2009 11:07 AM EST reply actions

The question I have

Are minutes consistent WITHIN the 7 game chunks? In other words, is Taps sticking with it?

I don’t really have a problem with 7 game chunks on a team like this year’s Wizards. I think it’s Taps’ way of saying ‘you get a chance to show me something without worrying game to game’. Then another player gets that chance. Seems fair on a team with so many players whose roles have been in flux. I just don’t know if it’s really happening that way.

by MR on Mar 3, 2009 11:12 AM EST reply actions

Mostly

It kind of depends on the player, and there were several instances of roster movement within blocks (guys moving in and out of the starting lineup, guys missing games with injury). For the most part minutes would be consistent for 3-4 games, then jump up or down for a game or two, then return to prior levels. So in most cases at least five of the games out of seven guys played about the same minutes.

There were a few cases where a guy’s minutes jumped up in the last game of a chunk and stayed that way for at least the first few games of the next, but it wasn’t an overarching trend. One thing to watch will be the fact that McGee played 32 minutes last night, but in the six games prior had averaged only 10:35. It’s unlikely that his minutes will see a huge increase because he’s not a starter and Blatche is back (and maybe starting again), but if Butler stays out for a few more games McGee could get the call.

Oh, and I didn’t include Pecherov because his PT is so erratic and because I’m not really sure Tap sees him as a valid bench option the way he (occasionally) does with Dixon.

by Jon L on Mar 3, 2009 11:27 AM EST up reply actions

For instance

Here’s a look at three players for the period Blatche’s minutes from 1/6-1/16:

Blatche- 24:55/27:29/25:35/35:45/24:57/16:03/26:45

They mostly hover around the 25-27 range, but one night he played a lot more and one night a lot less.

Crittenton- 12:39/26:39/23:58/22:53/17:31/23:35/12:20

These vary a little more, but the majority of them are around 23-26:30

Young- 17:14/23:57/27:10/25:44/31:40/33:14/36:18

There’s not really a majority of games in any one range here. His minutes jumped a bit in the second game and held, then jumped again in the fifth game. Incidentally, that third game was the start of his January scoring binge, including his back to back 30 point games.

To focus on Young a little more, because I think he’s been kind of the flashpoint for some of these arguments, here’s where a chicken-and-egg argument comes in. In the next block (1/19-1/30) his playing time was 23:08/10:44/19:40/7:36/15:23/19:56/10:18. There’s really not any one range of playing time in there. However, in those games NY also shot 2-9/2-5/2-7/1-3/1-6/3-7/1-5.

Then in the following block (1/31-2/11) he played 23:19/25:07/34:47/23:33/31:55/27:55/30:39, and shot 8-11/5-13/10-20/7-16/4-9/3-10.

So the (long) answer is…it depends. Some players, like Blatche and Songaila get pretty consistent game-to-game minutes, and Crittenton mostly does. Some guys, though, like Young and McGee don’t always see the same type of nightly consistency. I think we’d all agree that those two are the most inconsistent bench players on the team, but I’ll leave open the debate as to whether NY is inconsistent because his minutes get yanked around, or whether Tap doesn’t give him consistency because NY doesn’t give it back.

by Jon L on Mar 3, 2009 11:51 AM EST up reply actions

Wow

Really excellent analysis….

I, too am surprised with the consistent and increasing minutes for McGee since December.

Not surprised by Young’s minutes at all. I’ve been looking at those numbers hopping around like a Mexican Jumping Bean all year. It’s almost like Tap can’t decide what to do with Nick.

Darius Songaila’s numbers are staggeringly consistent.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Mar 3, 2009 11:51 AM EST reply actions

"Consistent and increasing minutes for McGee since December"

I read the opposite from these numbers.
McGee’s last three segments have gone 13:51/22:51/13:43, so the third is right back where he was in the first segment, after a dramatic increase during the second.
1/19-1/30. his #s were 4.56 pts, 5.00 rbds, 1.00 blks, .84 TO, 0 A
1/31-2/11, his #s were 11.57 pts, 6.84 rbds, 1.1 blks, 1 TO, .84A
2/17-3/2, his #s were 6.43 pts, 3.28 rbds, 1.1 blks , .7 TO, .14 A

So his minutes increased from segments 1 to 2 by 39, and his pts increased 154 and his rebounds increased 37%. . After the end of the second segment, Tapscott decided to rescind the extra nine minutes for the third segment. However, I would say that his disproportionately high increase in pts and proportionate increase in rebounds means that his performance at least from these simple statistics justified his minutes increase, and that Tapscott should continued to give him the extra minutes.

Lets hope the 32 minutes Taps gave him last night are indicative of another shift in McGee’s playing time, however I doubt it, particularly if Butler comes back in the next couple of games.

by morethesamewiz on Mar 3, 2009 6:41 PM EST up reply actions

I was not talking about McGee's production

But his minutes…. after December… DO seem to increase.

11/25-12/6___12/9-12/21___12/23-1/4___1/6-1/16___1/19-1/30___1/31-2/11___2/17-3/2
—-16:08 -———- 9:55 -———- 4:25 -———- 7:38 -——— 13:51 -——- 22:51*** -—- 13:43

* * the bump here is explained by Jon L: “The biggest beneficiary of Blatche’s recent injury was JaVale McGee, who saw his average minutes increase by a full 8 minutes, then had it drop almost equally when Blatche came back.”

So, besides the little bump up in minutes as a result of Blatche’s injury, McGee’s minutes since December have been steadily increasing. from 4:25 to 7:38 to 13:51 etc…

I’m not saying McGee doesn’t deserve additional minutes – only that his minutes are not being jerked around as much as I had originally suspected; and it’s easy to see a pattern of steadily increasing minutes.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Mar 3, 2009 7:01 PM EST up reply actions

Yes, this is what I meant

The fact that he went from the starting lineup to getting DNP-CDs, and has gradually worked his way into getting more playing time (4 and a half to 7 and a half to 13 and a half) is what I think has been encouraging.

by Jon L on Mar 3, 2009 7:07 PM EST up reply actions

Corrected

I didn’t catch the part about the overlap between Blatche’s injury and McGee’s increase in playing time in the 1/30 to 2/11 segment, that was careless oversight on my part. Jon, thanks for this post, this is a valuable reference and the most data and best analysis on Tapscott’s mysterious segments that I’ve seen anywhere.
One thing that might be worth looking into, if anyone here has taken a statistics course (I have not), would be standard deviation. Because if McGee plays in two three game stretches 2, 15, and 4 mins; 5 mins, 30 mins, 7 mins. Then the average minutes rose from 7 in the first stretch, to 14 in the second stretch. But even though the player’s minutes would have increased, I think both of those stretches would be equally destructive of the player’s confidence because his minutes are still see-sawing, despite 7-game averages, and seeming to fluctuate not based on his individual performance, what he can control, but on the whims of an in-impossibly-over-his-head coach. That loss of faith that your performance is the determinant of the minutes you garner, may lead a player to feel powerless and that there is no point to exerting himself in the weightroom, in practice, and in games.

by morethesamewiz on Mar 3, 2009 9:45 PM EST up reply actions

With the exception of Young, I see a fair amount of consistency – or at least you can follow a pattern. I guess Young has a pattern too – up, down, up, down, up, down. That’s just not the good kind of pattern.

by Johnnie Futbol on Mar 3, 2009 12:23 PM EST reply actions

Yeah - of all the players time, Young's makes the least sense

Boy – I wish I could do tables.

11/25-12/6___12/9-12/21___12/23-1/4___1/6-1/16___1/19-1/30___1/31-2/11___2/17-3/2
—-18:10 ~~——-—~~ 28:10-———- 15:30 ~~—-—~~ 28:00 -—-— 20:30 —-—- 13:30*** —— 20:45 – - – Minutes per game
—-6.57 ~~——-—~~ 16.29-——— 4.29 ~~—-—~~-—-18.43 -——— 8.86 ———- 4.71——-—- 8.29 – - – Points per game
—-30% ~~——-—~~- 49% ———- 29% ~~—-—~~——-62% -——— 40% ———- 26% -—-—- 46% – - – Shooting Percentage