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The worst off season in NBA History

Some are going to say this topic is worded too strongly, others are going to say the whole idea is just ludicrous. 3 years from now when this team has missed the playoffs for a third straight year fans will finally be able to look back and see how quickly Ernie Grunfeld went from Front Office genius to the man who ran a once promising young team into the ground.

Star-divide

 

The problem is its not 100% Grunfeld's fault. The problems run much deeper than just him. These problems run all the way back to Jordan/Kwame, to big Wes, to the curse of les bullez. All of the people who let this team become the perrenial loser the Washington Wizards/Bullets were throughout the 80s/90s need to share in the blame for this disaster.

Grunfeld put together a team that was young, exciting, and had the potential to grow into a real contender. Grunfeld's #1 priority should have been taking this team to the next level, instead his goal was to keep it medium, keep going after that low seed playoff bid and take as few risks as possible. If Grunfeld had swung for the fences would we be better off now? Could we possibly be any worse?? Either way, if we would have went down we would have at least went down swinging.

As soon as the trading deadline passed and Jamison was still on the roster we all should have foreseen this coming. How could a GM that is known for wheeling and dealing let an asset like a 16 mill expiring contract slip by without capitalizing?? Pau Gasol was traded for Kwame Brown's expiring and 2x 1st round picks... you dont think Memphis would have rather taken Jamison?? Imagine a move that not only got us the big man we needed to pair up with Gil but also the point forward to play scottie (mike miller) to Gil's MJ. Rather than making the type of moves that got EG to where he was today he was handcuffed. Handcuffed by the failures of past regimes and the fear of returning to the cellar.

How can you justify giving a solely offensive player that could barely be considered a top 10 guard, never the less a top 10 player, a maximum deal (it WAS a max deal, we will get more into that later). We gave Gil a king's ransom and you think that would be enough. But no if we want to have the honor of overpaying him we also have to overpay his buddy. Another defensive liability that would be LUCKY to get 50% of his contract if he hit the open market again this year. On top of overpaying for Gil, overpaying for AJ, Ernie got strong armed into keeping a lame duck coach, Eddie Jordan, around for another year 16 games.

Unfortunately they dont seem to have learned anything from these past mistakes either. We have already thrown away one season and we plan on throwing away the first half of next season trying to reacclimate Gil into the rotation and (hopefully) learning the system of a new head coach. If this team was truly dedicated to winning they would have brought Avery Johnson in the second EJ was shown the door. Give him 3/4 of a season to whip this team into shape and install a whole new defensive philosophy. By the time Gil is ready to return next year he would have no choice but to fall in line. Even if we do bring in a defensive minded coach in the off season he is going to have a much tougher challenge getting this team to buy in. When our younger players (ie nick young, javaris) are getting their ass beat in training camp and they look over and see the 100 million dollar man (gil) not buying in do you think they are going to?? No chance.

So what do we do now?? Do we dare stand up against Gilbert and tell him he isnt playing this Saturday (or any other point for the rest of the year)?? Do we (once again) give into his demands and risk going from 25% in the lottery to 8% (3 wins brings us from first to fifth)? Even if we do keep him on the bench and then beat the odds and win the lottery our "prize" is going to be a power forward who I expect to measure in at 6'8" or below. All these people who think Blake Griffin is some cant miss prospect are kidding themselves. Dont get me wrong I think he is a quality player but he is no Tim Duncan or Dwight Howard. Does anyone think a stronger David Lee is the difference right now between us and the Celtics, Cavs, or Magic?? How do we justify paying Jamison 12-13.5-15 million a year and being our 2nd/3rd man off the bench.

My hope (and if I havent lost you yet this is where I probably do) is that we dont win the lottery. We get the 2nd, maybe 3rd, pick and some major progress is made in regards to the contract buyout of a certain spanish heart-throb. With Gil running the point of this team we will never get any further than his hot/cold streaks brings us. With Rubio at the 1 we can quickly turn the core of the team around from Gil, Caron, AJ to Gil, Rubio, McGee. I honestly believe (with the right system) McGee/Rubio could turn into the next Amare/Nash. Rubio is such a perfect fit because not just any PG could fit into this puzzle. We need a PG with Rubio's size/length so he can match up on the 2 and let Gil stick with guarding the 1. Until we bring in a player that can get other players involved this team is going to live and die on Gil's jumpshot. As wet as it may be we all know it can only get us so far.

-----------------------------------------

Did you know??

Going on the assumption that Gilbert will play in 4 games this year he will earn 1.6 million dollars per game over the 07/08 and 08/09 seasons. What we will pay Gilbert for 2 games would be nearly enough to pay Roger Mason's salary for the entire year.

 

This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.

0 recs  |  Comment 26 comments

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by MR on Mar 26, 2009 7:36 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

meh

some of it is fair criticism. I don’t agree with most of it though…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laydODN6xVk

by hibachi on Mar 26, 2009 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The third pick would mean we trade down, it’s a crapshoot after Griffin and Rubio. Most of it isn’t Ernie’s fault: Thomas’s terrible contract, Jamison’s terrible contract were both due to Abe’s intervention due to favoritism. He really shouldn’t have fired EJ so soon but I welcome a new coaching method. It’s not a terribly bleak future ahead.

by Fundefined on Mar 26, 2009 11:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

My take on Ernie Grunfield,

is he had a team that couldnt get out of the first round of the playoffs and the East was getting heavier at the top(Boston, Cleveland, Orlando, Atlanta and even Toronto looked good in the off season) so why invest so mch in the same team minus Roger Mason Jr. The Antwan Jamison signing was great as he is a solid veteran and from all accounts a great guy and team captain, but why outbid yourself on Gilbert Arenas. Even without hindsight, a semi flawed second tier All-Star coming off a major knee operation shouldnt have broken the bank that badly.
Even with a healthy Arenas and Haywood next year, the Wizards probably wont get out of the first round. In my opinion, it might be time for Grunfield to go so the Wiz can get a new look and a new coach. Hopefully with a stud to build around(Griffin).

By the way I am obviously a Warriors fan, just read about Arenas’ pending return and wanted to see what you guys thought, sorry if I was way off base.

Thing B

by warriorsscore110 on Mar 27, 2009 1:27 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Jamison is a great team leader and veteran presence but does anyone honestly think he would get any more than the MLE if he was available at the end of this year??

When I hear rumors that Shawn Marion is HOPING to get 9 mil per year I really wonder how this contract is going to be looked at 2-3 years down the road.

by dt3 on Mar 27, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He was offered nearly the same amount of money to go to Philadelphia last offseason

Economy is a factor, but he’s not going to drop that far after a career year.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Mar 27, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

if Gil returns AND they luck out getting Griffin I would put money on him dropping 50% in scoring and rebounding.

by dt3 on Mar 27, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How does that have anything to do with anything?

Nobody is saying Gil’s better than Jamison or Blake Griffin.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Mar 27, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think

I think he’s trying to say that with Gil taking more shots, and Griffin coming in – Jamison’s productivity will drop (fewer shots, less minutes, etc…)

A. With Arenas back, the Wizards pace should increase… meaning more shots for everyone; including Jamison. I would actually expect Jamison’s scoring AVERAGE to go down (by a point or two), but his scoring EFFICIENCY to go up.

B. That’s an awfully big assumption there DT3. First, that the Wizards will even GET Blake Griffin…. and Second, that Blake Griffin will be good enough his first year to take a significant number of minutes away from an All-Star player.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Mar 27, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

I could see him becoming a 20 and 5 guy, but he won’t turn into Mike James.

by pantslessyoda1 on Mar 28, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It doesn't matter what Jamison would fetch THIS year...

His contract was up LAST SUMMER.

Last year, Philadelphia was drooling over the opportunity to sign him.
The Wizards didn’t allow them the chance to even make an offer – they signed him to a contract extension, minutes before he would have become a Free Agent. Who knows how high Philly would have gone to sign Jamison (one of the few 20-10 players in the entire Association last year)….. He was reportedly the #1 target on Philly’s want list.

Shawn Marion relies on athleticism for his game…. Dunks. High flying rebounds.

Jamison, who rarely even gets off the ground, will still be scooping, swooping, flipping and dipsy-doo-ing when Marion is resting his worn out knees in a nursing home. And Jamison will STILL be playing 38 minutes a game.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Mar 27, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's amazing how much Jamison does with so little athleticism

I can’t think of anyone who’s rebounding actually went up as they got older.

by pantslessyoda1 on Mar 27, 2009 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jamison is a great team leader and veteran presence but does anyone honestly think he would get any more than the MLE if he was available at the end of this year??

Really? He’s #11 in scoring #9 in rebounding in the league.

Honestly, I’m speechless.

by MR on Mar 27, 2009 11:05 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Nice,

thats something that most people dont know. Antwan is 32 years old and is aging very gracefully.

Thing B

by warriorsscore110 on Mar 27, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’ve actually been really impressed with how he’s played this year. He has expanded his game. That he wasn’t an all star is absurd.

by MR on Mar 27, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well

I’m with you until that last point. The best player on the worst team in the league pretty much never makes the all-star team unless he’s also a mega-marketing draw. Scoop shots don’t make sportscenter.

That said, yeah, my problem with OP’s entire analysis is that it has a hefty dose of 20/20 hindsight in it. If we hadn’t paid Arenas 111 mil, someone else was going to (probably Golden State). Same with Jamison. Our choices were between letting two of our best players walk and signing them to big deals. We chose the latter, and it looks bad now because Arenas had the surgery, Haywood got hurt, and the season went to hell. That happens, though. To make the obvious poker analogy, if you go all-in as a 70% favorite with three-of-a-kind, but your opponent ends up pulling off his straight and winning, that doesn’t mean you made the wrong decision, it just means that it turned out badly.e

by sierradave on Mar 28, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

dont get me wrong… I was unaware of those numbers but that doesnt really change anything. We all know how easily stats can be twisted and show things that we all know not to be true. We all know that it is even easier to do on a team that doesnt win alot of games. Past that, I would attribute those numbers to two factors 1) being 8th in Minutes per game and 2) being surrounded by (too put it nicely) a supporting cast that makes me question whether I could make it in the league.

We will take a look at his scoring average first. I dont know any way to compare these type of stats but I would love to see the PPG average of the opposing teams PF. We all know his defense is a liability and I wouldnt be surprised if those numbers nearly equal his own scoring. Other than Nick and Caron who else is out there that is even looking for a shot?? Our starting SF (DMac) has played 108 minutes in the past 3 games and scored 4 points (on 1-13 shooting with 2 FTA).

As far as rebounding goes… the other team is going to miss some shots and when they do it has to bounce towards someone. Anyone who thinks Jamison is a top 10 rebounder (at any point in his career) is out of their mind. If you change the stat for RPG to RP40 he drops from 9th place to 41st (right ahead of Luc Mbah a Moute).

I honestly think Jamison is the basketball equivalent of Rafy Palmeiro. Very talented, even smarter player that finds a way to compile tooons of stats but will never be a difference maker and never will be the key part of a championship contender.

by dt3 on Mar 27, 2009 1:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

one other thing

in regards to scoring… the only other players in the top25 who average less assists per game than him is Al Harrington and Dwight Howard.

by dt3 on Mar 27, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

if you were Jamison

who would you pass to?

You may also want to note that Jamison historically has a very low turn over rate …. compared to those “top 25” players…

So, go ahead and pick and choose the stats you want to use… The fact remains that there are VERY FEW 20-10 guys in the League, and they’re the BEST of the top players… and Jamison is right in there with them…. at a very modest $10 Million salary (compared to the other 20-10 guys that is).

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Mar 27, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And you could also say
1) being 8th in Minutes per game and 2) being surrounded by (too put it nicely) a supporting cast that makes me question whether I could make it in the league.

As you’re using those two points to perhaps denigrate Jamison’s numbers this year… I see those points as making the case for Jamison even stronger.

That he can put up numbers like that, when the entire League knows that he’s the only one on the Wizards they have to worry about – - – to put up those numbers, even when he’s usually double teamed (or at least the focus of the opposing defense) says a lot.

AND that he can do that, night in and night out, every game, for 40 minutes a game, at age 32….. also says a lot.

If you think that Luc Mbah a Moute is a better rebounder than Jamison, then there’s really no reason for me to even respond….. but I challenge you to find another 20 ppg 9 rpg guy that does it every night – for 40 minutes…

You name me all the 20ppg 9 rpg guys in the Eastern Conference…… – - –
Never mind, I’ll do it…

Kevin Garnett? NOPE
Paul Pierce? NOPE
Danny Granger? NOPE
Rashard Lewis? NOPE
The Savior? NOPE (LeTravel)

The only 20-9 guys in the Eastern Conference are Bosh, Dwight Howard and Antawn Jamison.

If you think getting 9 rebounds a night in the NBA is so easy, then why are there only 11 guys in the ENTIRE NBA that are doing it?

Nope – I strongly disagree with your statements…. It’s real easy to look at Jamison’s unusual flip shots, scoops, hooks and dipsy-do’s and think that he’s soft…. except then he kicking someone’s butt on the boards…

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Mar 27, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, shush
We all know how easily stats can be twisted and show things that we all know not to be true.

We also know how conjecture can be twisted to show things that we all know not to be true as well.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Mar 27, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

AJ rebounding stats in the NBA

07-08 #10
06-07 #20
06-07 #20
05-06 #11

by MR on Mar 28, 2009 7:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

10 million doesn’t bother me, 4 years does. It’s puts the Wizards in a tight finanical situation and overly optimistic on Jamison’s age and health. He’s still worth 10 million now but not in another 2 years.

by Fundefined on Mar 27, 2009 4:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Just think of it as 3 years of productive play

That last year, he will become trade bait as an expiring contract…. (Just as Mike James and Etan Thomas are this year)…

If he’s still even moderately effective, a Playoff bound team would snatch him up for Draft Choices and young talent – for the chance to add veteran scoring and rebounding to their bench.

And remember, Jamison is not exactly the most athletic guy – RIGHT NOW…. so his game won’t deteriorate nearly as fast as other guys in their 30’s that rely on their athleticism and jumping ability.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Mar 27, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I agree with this

Four years was a bit cumbersome, especially because his salary escalates.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Mar 27, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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