Ricky Rubio of Spain wants to enter 2009 NBA draft
Are we still trading down if we get the #2 pick instead of the #1 pick?
almost 3 years ago
hibachi
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I think I've made it clear here that I want Rubio bad.
I’m honestly more excited about the prospect of getting him than I am about Blake Griffin.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laydODN6xVk
Yeah
Griffin’s got a 90% chance at being a 20-10 guy, at worst he’s pre-injury Kenyon Martin 2.0, but Rubio could be anything from an all-NBA pg to Jason Williams. Personally, I think he’ll be a monster, and make any team he’s on one of the most fun to watch in the league.
by pantslessyoda1 on Mar 18, 2009 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions
It's a good question
Rubio would make things interesting because Gilbert would have to mover over to shooting guard which could complicate things, but you have to think that he’s too good to pass up, regardless of fit.
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I like Rubio
A ton… blatently just would love to see him in a wizards uniform…but I feel he is more valuable to another team and we could get significant compensation for trading persay a #2 overall pick to a team thats enamored with Rubio for a pick where we could get a Harden who I believe would be a great pickup and automatic starter in the backcourt with gil… I believe that our front court is becoming a bit crowded. When healthy we have haywood jamison blatche mcgee songaila etan all vying for 2 spots. I feel if we draft another young player down there i.e. griffin or thabeet or blair than we would be giving up playing time to players that have been here for a few years and need to just be healthy together for us to judge whether or not they can lead us to the promised land. Of course I would liek to get rid of songiala and etan regardless
Rubio may WANT to enter the draft
But everything depends on whether DKV Joventut will lower his 6 Million Euro buyout. But, why would they?
There is also talk about his buyout possibly not holding up in a Court - since it’s not proportionate to his 80,000 Euro contract.
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Yeah, I think they doubled his salary for that reason or something.
I think the idea though is that if they can lower his buyout to somewhere around 4.5 million, he’d be willing to come over and pay it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laydODN6xVk
I see no new information here
This has been the case all along. He wants to enter the draft. He has a bug buyout.
The only thing that raised an eyebrow was this:
considered a lock to be selected in the top 10 of the NBA draft. Several league executives believe the 6-foot-3 Olympian will be a top five pick.
Isn’t that understating it, or has Youtube clouded all of our judgement?
No - that's understating it.
There are only two players in the upcoming draft that have the talent and potential to be perennial All-Stars: Griffin and Rubio.
Everyone else is on a tier below them…
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Worries, worries
Every year at draft time I worry that the Wizards will do something stupid. This year, the worry is that they will decide to either trade the pick to save money, or trade the chance to use the pick to select someone who will be very good down the road for a veteran player who is good now, believing that they are just a mediocre veteran piece away from making a run at a title. Suuuuuure ….
If the Wizards have the chance to select Rubio and don’t, I’m going to take hostages. Picking up a marvelously gifted, 18 year old point guard like Rubio sets the franchise up for 10 to 15 years. The guy was even named Defensive Player of the Year in Spain this year! The second coming of Jason Kidd. To pass on him for whatever reason would be disastrous, even if that reason is that Rubio can’t join the Wizards for one year because of his contract situation. The Celtics waited on Bird for a year, and that worked out pretty well.
If the Wizards pass on Rubio to select Griffin, I think it’s a mistake, but a minor and understandable mistake. Oh, to have the problem of deciding whether to choose one or the other….
Griffin or Rubio, yes...
otherwise trade down… that seems to be the consensus and I agree.
If they trade down
I think most people agree that after Griffin and maybe Rubio, there’s another tier of players that’s a few levels lower talent-wise, and then after that the draft nosedives. Let’s say that the Wizards get the #3 pick. If a team is really dying to get, say, DeJuan Blair, I don’t see why the Wizards shouldn’t trade that pick and end up with a lower slot, where they’ll get a player who’s probably comparable in talent and potential, but who won’t be asking for #3 pick money.
OK, I think
If the Wizards get the third pick, I think they should use it. If they think that they can still get the #3 guy on their board by trading down to pick #6, however, then they should trade down. I definitely agree with that.
What I don’t want to see is the sort of thinking that if a pick can’t help us next season, let’s trade the pick. I agree that Griffin and Rubio are in a tier by themselves, but that doesn’t mean that Hill, Harden, Henderson, etc. won’t be very good players. To trade the chance to get a guy who will be very good in a year or two for an older guy who is only pretty good is short-sighted, in my opinion. The opportunity to get a top 5 pick doesn’t happen every year (hopefully!), so don’t waste it.
You're assuming that Ernie would trade the pick for a so-so veteran
But if the Wizards could get a rotation player by trading the top 3-5 pick, I could see that benefiting the team more than a Harden, Hill , etc… Those guys (Harden, Hill, Thabeet, Stephen Curry, etc…) would have been mid-late 1st round picks in last year’s draft. They just don’t have the talent in this draft that came out last year. All of those players in that next tier down from Griffin/Rubio will require several years before they’re ready to contribute…
But if the Wizards can trade that 3-5 pick and say Etan’s contract for a veteran, like Mike Miller, or Jason Kapono – that might be a better deal than waiting around for ANOTHER young kid to develop (or not).
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Ugh
This is exactly the scenario that I think would be horrible. While this draft is not as stacked as previous drafts, to suggest that everyone after the first or second pick is garbage and years away from contributing is not close to accurate. There are good players in every draft. Perhaps no franchise cornerstone players after the top 2, but guys who can start in their first year or two? For sure.
To trade a top 5 pick for the likes of Mike Miller or Jason Kapono would be insane, in my opinion. I personally think the guys available at picks 3 through 5 would be better than those two if not from day 1, then by the end of their first season. I mean, come on — Jason Kapono? Aren’t Mike Miller and especially Jason Kapono the epitome of, “so-so veterans”?
My point is, and has been, that the Wizards are not a solid veteran rotation player away from competing for anything worthwhile, for the reasons that many of you have pointed out over and over through the years. So, the Wizards will need some luck and patience. Maybe Nick Young will become a legitimate starter and 20 point scorer in time. Maybe Blatche will achieve his potential. Maybe McGee will become a top 7 center. Maybe McGuire becomes James Posey or Bruce Bowen 2.0. My thought is to use the top 5 pick so you have one more “maybe” — maybe that pick will turn out to be a star, or just an excellent player. Or at least give Grunfeld an extra piece to package in a trade. That sort of luck is what is going to be required to push the Wizards over the top. A Mike Miller or a Jason Kapono won’t do it.
I agree with this
We can trade down and get a guy like Mike Miller (not Jason Kapono, he sucks), but it’s far more likely that the guy we get at 4 or 5 is just as good as those guys and he’s cheaper.
If we trade down and get the guy we want, plus a vet, that’s cool. But if we trade out of the draft, we need someone way better than Jason Kapono or even Mike Miller. I like Miller, but just last year, he was a sweetner in a trade down from 3 to 5. Why is he suddenly worth trading out of the draft for?
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
I'm not advocating trading OUT of the draft
Only that the top 3-5 picks are not worth fighting over… nor are they “starting” material for a Playoff team…. nor are they anywhere near ready enough to produce for a Playoff team.
If you’re going to pick a “prospect” , don’t waste a 3-5 pick on him. Trade down. Trade the Wiz pick + Thomas for Miller + a lower 1st round pick. Or Miller and a pick next year…
or
Trade the 3-5 pick for a pick next year AND a lower pick in the 1st round.
I disagree that Kapono sucks – We saw first hand last night what a 3-point sharpshooter can do when the Clippers put in Steve effing Novak and he hit like 42 three pointers in the 2nd half and singlehandedly destroyed the Wiz. That kind of weapon is nice to have sitting on the bench.
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And that's where you and I disagree
With a healthy Arenas, Stevenson, Haywood – the Wizards as they are currently constructed have enough to compete… Perhaps the 4th best team in the Eastern Conference…. and certainly not very far away from the top spot.
A veteran player or two might be just what is needed to put them over the top…
On the other hand, ANOTHER long-term project is precisely what the Wizards DON’T need. They’ve already got Nick Young, Andray Blatche, Dom McGuire, Pecherov, JaVale McGee, and Javaris Crittenton. How many roster spots do you want to take up with kids?
I’ve watched a lot of College basketball this year – mostly recording the games on my DVR to review for my Draft Prospect reports for Bulletsforever.com… I can tell you this, after Blake Griffin and Ricky Rubio, none of next top 12 guys will be ready to “start in their first year or two” on a Playoff team. Perhaps they’d be starters in Sacramento or Oklahoma City – but not on next year’s Wizards team.
So-so veterans.? Kapono is one of the most deadly 3-point shooters in the Association (precisely what the Wizards need)… and Mike Miller is a starting SG who throughout his career has averaged 14 ppg on 46% shooting and 41% from the 3-point line (I’d say that’s an upgrade over Stevenson)
If you consider those guys so-so, then give me more of those kind of players for the Wizards -rather than:
Jordan Hill – who simply hands the ball to the opponent when he’s double teamed
or James Harden – A below average athlete, who’s College Coach simply tells him to take over the Offense, while everyone else on the team stands around – yeah right, that’ll work in the NBA !
…Or Thabeet – who Haywood could break in half like a tooth pick; who can’t seem to bring effort every night in COLLEGE.. The guy who almost had his arm torn off by DeJuan Blair?
or Brandon Jennings – the High School kid that went to Europe to play and can’t crack the starting line up for a crappy Rome team.
NO THANKS -
IF the Wizards have the 3-5 pick and decide to go ahead and pick someone, they should trade down.. Get as much as they can for the higher pick (another pick in next year’s draft, along with a swap of this year’s pick)… and try to get into the lower half of this year’s draft (picks 15-30)… where they can find some nice talent
DeJuan Blair, Chase Buddinger, Kyle Singler, Darren Collison, and Tyler Hansbrough are all projected to go in the bottom half of the 1st round… and personally, I like all of those guys (and their upside) more than the guys projected in the 3-5 slots…
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I agree that this is where you and I disagree. San Di-ago....
You see the choices available after pick #2 as garbage or long term projects, and I don’t. Late first round picks and second round picks like Young, Crittendon, Blatche, etc. tend to be long-term projects. Top five picks tend to have a quicker impact. I think Harden and Henderson would be better than any SGs the Wizards have on the roster right now, but that’s pure conjecture on my part.
If the Wizards take your route, however, they can set their sights much higher than you are setting them. Not every team will value a top 5 pick highly, but some teams might be looking to reboot — to get rid of a player with a long contract for a chance to start over with a top 5 pick.
Let’s say the Wizards offer Etan Thomas and the 3rd, 4th or 5th pick and can get players like Deng, Prince, Tyson Chandler, Battier in return. OK, now we’re talking. (I’ve listed a bunch of forwards, but ideally it would be a SG.) What is the going rate for the trade of a top 5 pick? Jamison for #5. Ray Allen for #5. Years ago, Antonio Daniels for #5, I believe. Elton Brand for #2. Last season, Richard Jefferson for Yi (the 6th pick the year earlier) and Bobby Simmons. I think that is the level of player to shoot for.
Heck, if Ernie can get Caron for Kwame Brown, he can turn a top 5 pick into something very worthwhile. I wouldn’t put it past Ernie to get Kapono for a 2nd rounder. To paraphrase Jack Palance in City Slickers, Ernie craps bigger than Kapono.
Speaking of Kwame
If Grunfeld could trade Kwame, a No. 1 pick whose every flaw had been on display for a few years, and who the Lakers had to sign to a larger contract to make the deal happen, for Caron Butler, why wouldn’t the top 5 pick this year fetch a Caron Butler (circa 2004) level player? That would seem to what the value of a top 5 pick would be.
Wrong Antonio
Antonio Davis, not Daniels. Sorry.
Normally - you'd be correct
You see the choices available after pick #2 as garbage or long term projects, and I don’t. Late first round picks and second round picks like Young, Crittendon, Blatche, etc. tend to be long-term projects. Top five picks tend to have a quicker impact.
Young and Crit were drafted in 2007 when Greg Oden, Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Jeff Green, Thaddeus Young, Rodney Stuckey were drafted. That kind of talent is not available this year.
The talent available this year (except Rubio and Griffin) is more like late 1st round talent in ANY OTHER DRAFT YEAR.
This is NOT a normal draft. This draft is more like 2001. There are eerie similarities. There was a big drop off in talent level after the first 3 picks in the 2001 draft… just as there’s a precipitous drop in talent after the first 2 picks in the 2009 draft.
2000 1.1 Kenyon Martin
2000 1.2 Stromile Swift
2000 1.3 Darius Miles
2000 1.4 Marcus Fizer
2000 1.5 Mike Miller
2000 1.6 DerMarr Johnson
2000 1.7 Chris Mihm
2000 1.8 Jamal Crawford
2000 1.9 Joel Przybilla
2000 1.10 Keyon Dooling
Only two of the players in 2000 had a major impact on their Teams, and started a majority of the games as a Rookie…Kenyon Martin and Mike Miller (yes , that VERY SAME Mike Miller that you called a “so-so” veteran)… It took the rest several years to make their mark; and some (Marcus Fizer, DerMarr Johnson) never did – and are out of the league.
We were spoiled by last year’s draft, when so many very good players came out:
(Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, OJ Mayo, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love, Eric Gordon, Brook Lopez, Mareese Speights, Roy Hibbert, Mario Chalmers)
If JaVale McGee was available THIS YEAR he would undoubtedly be considered a top 2-3 pick – but he fell all the way to # 18 last year.
This year’s draft class sucks. I will be surprised if there are 2 All-Stars (Griffin and Rubio) and maybe 6 starters in the entire group…. And when I say starters, I mean at SOME POINT in their careers… All the rest are bench players at best.
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That's your opinion
And if every GM in the league agrees with it, then you are correct that the best the Wizards will be able to get for the 3rd, 4th or 5th pick is some also-ran like Mike Miller or Jason Kapono. Based on what I’ve read on some websites, however, some scouts really like Jordan Hill, Teague, Henderson and Harden, and some like Thabeet.
I feel like I need a shower after reading that 2000 draft list. Yuck. Historically bad. Turkoglu was probably the best player that year, although Eddie Jordan probably thinks that Etan Thomas was the best.
hey watch it!
that draft class produced Deshawn Stevenson!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laydODN6xVk
And
Who can forget the Wizard’s pick that year…… Mike Smith
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And That Crappy Pick
That some idiot GM selected late in the 2nd round, Michael Redd.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
The book on him was that he couldn’t shoot from the outside.
by MR on Mar 20, 2009 8:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Then Throw the Book Out
If this year’s draft class is like the terrible draft classes of 2000 and 2001, then that means that there are some diamonds in the rough to be had. Don’t go by conventional wisdom. Both Redd and Gilbert Arenas led their teams to the NCAA Final Four, and yet both were lightly regarded in their draft classes for one reason or another, despite both draft classes being exceptionally weak. I’m willing to bet that there is a player like that in this upcoming draft. Trading down might not be such a bad idea after all, assuming Ernie can still pluck out the diamonds like he did with Redd.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Well,
I made up my own mind by watching more than 60 College games this year. Watching all the top draft prospects (and some of the lower ranked ones as well)….like Thabeet, Jordan Hill, Stephen Curry, Blake Griffin…. I even paid good money to watch 6 EuroLeague games with Ricky Rubio…
My conclusion is that after Griffin and Rubio, there’s not another player that would have been picked in the top 20 if they had come out in last year’s draft… None of the 2-12 rated players have the kind of talent that should warrant 2-12 draft status. This is a very poor draft class.
Chad Ford agrees with me…Saying that the 2009 NBA draft is shaping up to be the weakest in years.
With a subpar freshman class, a weak international crop and a lack of star potential, the 2009 NBA draft is shaping up to be the weakest in years.
Also saying this:
the overall quality of NBA draft prospects is in a recession this year.
So I don’t see a problem with trading away the 3-5 pick for veteran talent and a lower pick this year…. or trading down (swapping 2009 1st round picks) and picking up an extra pick next year. (ie: trade our 3-5 pick for a lower 2009 1st round pick PLUS a 1st or 2nd next year)..
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Second coming of Jason Kidd??
Perhaps -
But I think his game, at least Offensively is more like Steve Nash’s….
Defensively he’s Kidd-like, especially with rebounding and steals… Not sure he’ll be an 8-time selection as a 1st or 2nd team All-Defensive, but he’s certainly got the potential to be a very good defender.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
I thought the idea of trading down or completely out
was to get rid of either Etan or Mike James contracts.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laydODN6xVk
with blake & rubio likely to be going 1-2 its looking more likely that if we dont land the 1st or 2nd overall pick then we will trade the pick for a good starting SG vet
PG Arenas/Crittenton
SG WHO? /Young
SF Caron/DMac
PF Jamison/Blatch
C Haywood/McGee
^ i just don’t think grunfeld intends to move any of the guys in that group
Etan/Stevenson/Songalia/James/Pesh
Grunfeld will most likely will package 2 or more of these guys with our top pick for a good SG …. somthing like when we traded our 5th overall + fillers for Jamison
But who could we get, though?
There aren’t a lot of good-to-great shooting guards out there, at least that are available. Michael Redd, Ben Gordon (via a sign & trade), and maybe Jason Richardson are what we’re looking at, and the first two are overrated since they’re incapable of rebounding, creating for others, and playing defense, and I don’t know that Richardson is necessarily worth, say the number four pick. He’s good and solid, don’t get me wrong, but his PER is only around the 15 area this year.
by pantslessyoda1 on Mar 20, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Jason Richardson
Actually, his PER is at 16.5 this year.
Boy – he would be perfect in the Wizards system. Playing along side Gilbert Arenas !
At 27, he’s right in his prime. Although he used to be super athletic, and went to the rim a lot, now he’s more and more turning into a 3-point sniper (just what the Wiz need)… shooting over 40% this year from beyond the arc. His career scoring average is over 18 points per game. At 6’6" he’s got good size for a SG.. He’s a very athletic guy and uses his jumping ability well on his jump shots, getting great height, and shooting from well over his head…. he can get his shot off over just about anyone. He runs the floor extremely well. He’s durable, consistent, and a veteran. He’s an OK defender (Not so good against really quick guys, but better against the bigger SG’s in the league). He rebounds (5 per game) and assists (3 per game) pretty well for a SG.
If Phoenix is looking to re-tool, they may want to trade for some expiring contracts, and young talent or picks:
This might work:
Etan Thomas’ expiring contract ($6.8M) + Mike James’ expiring contract ($6.3M) + Nick Young ($1.6M) + 1st Round pick (# 3-5)
for
Jason Richardson + 1st round pick (probably # 14-16)
The trade works: http://www.realgmbasketball.net/src_checktrade.php?tradeid=5043155
PLUS – it saves $2.2 Million off next year’s salaries…PLUS the difference in Rookie Salaries between a top 5 pick and a mid-1st rounder is probably another Million… so the total savings is north of $3 Million in Salaries (+ $3 Million Luxury Tax)..
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