Hump Day Poll: Pick or JaVale
by Kyle Weidie on Mar 18, 2009 10:36 AM EDT
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No Wizards fan wants to choose between keeping JaVale McGee or the assumed upcoming high draft pick.
Despite Ernie Grunfeld's hints at not worrying about the luxury tax, and Abe Pollin's insistence that he's "not gonna quit," having to select between one or the other has shades of probability (and if not McGee, then someone else like Nick Young or Andray Blatche -- but the value of Epic Vale is the focus of this poll).
Essentially, "in this economy," the last year contracts of Etan Thomas and Mike James might not be that valuable this summer (together or by themselves) and the Wizards may have to entice another team with prospects or a draft pick (which may also garner an experienced role player for the Wiz).
[Remember: Etan is set to make $7,354,500 million next season and will most likely not enact his early termination option (ETO); Mike James has a player option for $6,466,600 million and most likely will take it.]
Note on Exercise Period: Any ETO must be exercised prior to the July 1 immediately prior to the Effective Season of such ETO. Any Option must be exercised prior to the July 1 immediately prior to the Season covered by the Option, except that an Option in favor of a player who would become a Restricted Free Agent if the Option were not exercised must be exercised prior to the June 25 immediately prior to the Season covered by such Option. For more, go to nbpa.com
So, all that jibber-jabba being said, and as the issue was essentially brought up in this discussion, which do you value most?
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I disagree
Essentially, “in this economy,” the last year contracts of Etan Thomas and Mike James might not be that valuable this summer
He doesn’t have to do ANYTHING this summer…. Ernie has the option of keeping both Etan and Mike James until the Trade Deadline… He can trade them in Feb 2010, when their contracts WILL be valuable – their salaries would then come off the books. Remember, the Luxury Tax is calculated on the salaries on the books at the end of the season.
You cannot tell me that there won’t be teams willing to trade veteran players with long-term contracts for an expiring contract – right before the LeBron – Wade – Bosh Free Agent sweepstakes…. There will be teams interested in either going after the 2010 Free Agents, or dumping salary for Luxury Tax purposes.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
True...
So that still supports the theory that they won’t be as valuable this summer.
I take it your assumption is that our draft pick will take Juan Dixon’s roster spot and everything will remain the same heading into next season?
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.
Yeah
My assumption is that the Wizards will essentially stay pat….
Not do anything this summer (unless someone really, really wants Etan Thomas ?!?!? grin.. )
I think they’ll keep all the young guys, including JaVale and Nick Young… Although if someone goes, it would probably be Nick.
Dixon will definitely be gone; so his roster spot could be filled by a draft pick.
If they have the #1 Pick – they’ll chose Griffin.
If they have the #2 and Rubio is available, they’ll pick him…
Otherwise I think they’ll trade down in the draft… Perhaps trade the 3-5 pick for a mid-first rounder this year, and a 1st or 2nd round pick next year. With the Mid-1st round pick , they could get a young PF like DeJuan Blair, or some some Guard help… (I like Chase Buddinger as a SG or Terrence Williams because he can defend)…
OR
They could draft a Euro player, and stash him overseas… That would save a couple Million on the Tax bill…
For some reason, I don’t know why, but I have this feeling that the Wizards don’t have a 2nd Round pick…. Anyone know?
Anyway, if they DO have a 2nd rounder, they will most likely either trade it for a higher pick in an upcoming draft, or draft another Euro.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
We've got a second rounder
It hasn’t really been talked about, though, since we don’t have a roster spot for whoever we choose. Hopefully we can get something out of it (a Euro, maybe?), rather than just sell it like we did last year.
And I think your analysis is pretty sound. Trading down seems like our best bet, and I’d be ok with swapping, say, the fourth pick in the draft and getting a future first rounder from a team like Detroit or Indiana.
by pantslessyoda1 on Mar 18, 2009 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions
They picked up his option already
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Ah, thanks
The 2nd rounder should be pretty high. Above or within a few picks of say…Tony Parker, Arenas, Redd, Manu. And Ernie seems to be pretty good at this stuff, I’d say it’s his strength.
There is always the D-league.
Ernie seems to be better with 2nd Round picks than 1st rounders
Redd, Blatche, McGuire come to mind….
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Here's an idea
Why not dangle Agent Zero for the Top Pick? Assuming that pick would be Blake Griffin?
I’m drawn to your blog as an old Bullets fan ( I know, I’m hopeless). This team is stuck in First Round Only mode with it’s current lineup (with Zero, I mean).
I think they need to step out of their comfort zone.
Wait, give someone Gilbert Arenas and a top five pick?
I mean, no one can be sure about Gil’s health, but that seems a little bit risky.
by pantslessyoda1 on Mar 18, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
61% for Pick 1 or 2
A lot of people are really betting on the return of Gilbert and Haywood, not to mention the Ernie theory that healthy Wizards = Eastern Conference Finals.
Actually, this is a weird question
How can someone value a 3-5 pick more than a 1-2? I mean, who wouldn’t take Blake Griffin or Rubio over Javale? I think a better debate would be whether we’d rather have the 3-5 or lose Javale.
Yea, I thought about that after posting....
I couldn’t put two polls in one post …. but wanted to compare thoughts on JaVale vs. 1 or 2 and then JaVale vs. 3-6…..effed up. My bad.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.
it took me a sec...
but i figured out what you were trying to do.
anyways, I’d rather keep Javale over a 3-6 but probably not over Griffin or maybe Rubio. but it’s hard to say. Arguably Javale also has the potential to be a one-of-a-kind kinda player, yet the Wizards might not be able to get quite as much in return for him than a 1st or 2nd pick (which would also cost the Wizards a bit more than McGee’s contract)
That said, Rook’s point is good. I think if they get a pick in the 3-6 range then they should consider packaging that along with an expiring contract for a good veteran player.
If that doesn’t work out, or they can get Rubio or Griffin, they should wait till the mid-season trade deadline when the expiring contracts are worth a little more and they’ll probably have a little more perspective on which of these young guys to keep.
by Johnnie Futbol on Mar 18, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
also...
I’d much rather see them trade away Blatche or Young if they really feel like they need to make a trade. I actually think Blatche has enough upside that other teams would bite.
In fact I think trading McGee would be a big mistake, unless they can get something really significant for him.
by Johnnie Futbol on Mar 18, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I stand by Javale for now...
I don’t know who else sees a lot more upside in Javale like I do but I think we have a long term center finally that provides a good presence in Haywood’s absence and to me he’s already looking more athletic than Haywood despite that he doesn’t have the physical dominance we’d like him to have yet. I don’t know I’m standing by him so far because I believing that after the Kwame Brown disaster, we finally got it right. Im sort of confused though, Truth. Your saying trade Javale for those picks or what?…
"But like my father said, you want Jennifer Lopez but does she want you? No. I'll just take what ever they give to me."-Julian Taverez
by purpleonblack86 on Mar 18, 2009 2:41 PM EDT reply actions
Is the 3-5 pick guaranteed? If not, meaning if the Wiz couldn’t get any better than a 5, I’d consider getting rid of a big name for a # 1 – ONLY.
Grunfeld thinks a healthy Wiz = Eastern Conference Finalists? That’s a little generous, don’t ya think?
That healthy lineup couldn’t take the Celts, Magic, or the Cavs.
NO - you're right
The Wizards, with a completely healthy lineup (Arenas, Butler, Haywood, Jamison and Stevenson, PLUS a bench of Blatche, Young, Songaila, McGuire, etc…) — they’re still probably not good enough to defeat the Celts, Magic or Cavs in a 7 game series….
BUT
Add Griffin
AND
Some veteran help at the Feb 2010 trade deadline – and they could be close.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
I think with their FULLY healthy lineup they can likely take the Cavs, probably the Magic (assuming we’re talking about a healthy Thomas and his 6 fouls), maybe not the Celts.
Even without Gil we took the Cavs to 6 games last year, and I think our bench has improved (no, I’ve not forgotten that they’ve added too).
by MR on Mar 18, 2009 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, if you throw a Griffin in the mix, then you’ve got a team that could do something. My point is that the Wiz can’t win with the roster they have – including a healthy Gilbert & Haywood. Unless they’re built to be a first round playoff team, then the Wiz needs to engage in a Home Makeover – Team Edition. I’d love to see Griffin in a Wizards uniform, but if they fail to get a # 1, who’s the next choice? Do you settle for 2-5, or do you swap for #1?
Wiz can’t win with the roster they have – including a healthy Gilbert & Haywood
I guess I just disagree with that statement. I’d say we could be in the top 4 in the east with a healthy lineup. I don’t think we’re as good as Boston, but they are a rapidly aging team and could become Detroit next year. Or they could dominate. Other than them, I think we’re right in the mix. Not the favorites, but not a long long shot either. We’re a streaky team. Get hot at the right time and who knows what can happen.
The idea of trading up from 2-5 to 1 in the draft (Rubio aside) seems silly. It would cost us too much. A vet that could contribute for the next 2-3 years would be a smarter move. I’d say that trading down or out of the draft makes more sense.
This is of course all predicated on a healthy old style Arenas, and who knows if that will happen.
I love Arenas, but I just get the feeling that he can’t be the centerpiece. Plus, as you said, who knows what Arenas we get back? All of old Bullets fans know the history of this team and injuries. But I’m not sold on Haywood either. I think he had an adequate year last year, but a large upgrade is needed.
Top 4 in the East, but with all 4 at their potential, I still see the Wiz as no better than 4.
I think they’ve slowly rebuilt the franchise, forgetting this throw-away year, but I’d say they’re only halfway. I can’t wait for the draft.
Well I think there is nothing to be done about Arenas till we see how he comes back. If he is Arenas of old we have huge potential.
As for a “large upgrade” from Haywood, I’m not sure what you have in mind but all-star centers are hard to find and even harder to pry away from other teams. I don’t think Orlando is trading Howard for a draft pick and expiring contracts for example.
I don’t think Orlando is trading Howard for a draft pick and expiring contracts for example.
—————————————————
Haha, not unless they’re fools! I don’t think we’ll find out for sure on Arenas until next season – even if he comes back this year, it’s such a small window to make any judgement on him, I’d think.
Actually
We may have an upgrade for Haywood already on the roster….
The only differences between Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee are Strength, Experience and referee acknowledgment. As a matter of fact, I think JaVale has a higher upside than Howard… He has a better Free Throw stroke and better form on his jump shot than Howard. AND he seems much “longer” than Howard…
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Sure, if by strength you mean 30 pounds of muscle.
I like McGee. I LOVE McGee. But let’s not understate the difference between the two players, my friend.
The difference between me and Lebron are just speed, quickness, strength, and about a foot of height. Oh, and shooting touch. (I have the experience).
by MR on Mar 19, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think I "UNDERSTATED" anything..
McGee already has the foot speed, leaping ability, quickness and athleticism that Dwight has ; AND is taller, longer and has a better jump shot and better touch around the basket than Howard (at a similar age)… Even right now, JaVale is a better Free Throw shooter than Howard.
McGee is far closer to Howard than you are to LeBron… FAR CLOSER… The fact that several All-Star players have already compared JaVale to Howard, seems to make my point… I have not read any newspaper articles comparing you to LeBron.
And like I said, the only things Javale lacks are strength and experience. Whether he gains either, will be up to himself and the Coaching staff.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
McGee already has the foot speed, leaping ability, quickness and athleticism that Dwight has ; AND is taller, longer and has a better jump shot and better touch around the basket than Howard (at a similar age)… Even right now, JaVale is a better Free Throw shooter than Howard.
Replace Howard’s name with “a young Shaq” and the same still applies. Do you think McGee will become Shaq?
The point is that their body types are so different…Howard would push McGee around the paint like a child. For McGee to catch up in that respect…I just don’t think it’s possible.
by MR on Mar 19, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
When he came into the league...
Dwight Howard was a skinny 240 pounds
JaVale McGee is listed as 237.
People tend to forget that Howard was a 6’11" skinny (240 pound) 18 year old High School kid when he was drafted by Orlando. He hit the weight room, and in 2 years, he had bulked up to 265.
http://slamonline.com/online/wp-content/uploads/2007/03/dwightglass.jpg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dwight_howard_2009z.jpg
I see a little bit of difference there….
No reason McGee can’t do the same thing in 2 years….
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
I guess you haven't been converted to the Tao of Haywood yet
Go read the archives a bit, then get back to me.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
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