Trade up in the Draft?
Photo by AP
The odds are against the Wizards getting the #1 pick in the upcoming draft. That consensus #1 pick, Blake Griffin, by all accounts is one of the best basketball players to come out of College in the last several years. There are those who think he can be the next Karl Malone.
Is Griffin worth trading up?
I had only watched several games when I wrote my Draft prospect review on Griffin earlier this year.
Since then, I've watched all the Oklahoma games. Of all the top draft prospecs, (Harden, Jordan Hill, Thabeet, Jeff Teague, Stephen Curry, etc...), NO ONE and I really mean NO ONE, brings it every night like Blake Griffin. Even though I wrote a glowing review of Griffin, after watching him all year, I probably underestimated his skills and abilities.
He's a beast on the boards, both offensive and defensive. He's got advanced offensive moves. He's fast, quick, fluid, efficient, smooth, extremely strong and athletic. He's an explosive jumper. He's an excellent ball handler. He's got great hands and nice touch. His footwork is textbook. He finishes strong, even through heavy contact. He has wonderful body control and coordination; and a surprisingly effective jump shot. He's practically unstoppable close to the rim. And those are just his physical qualities.
When you start talking about subjective qualities, Griffin starts to sound almost too perfect. He's got a great attitude. He's been the face of College Basketball and his Oklahoma team all year. He understands the game, and is as unselfish as they come. He's always the hardest working guy on the court, with an incredible motor and an intensity that others just can't match. He's the son of a High School basketball Coach, and has a high Basketball IQ. He's a tough guy that withstands the pounding he gets night after night by guys trying to knock him off his game. An extremely hard worker, he brings a winning mentality to the locker room. He plays "mean" (something the Wizards sorely lack). And, oh yeah, he wears number 23.
Players like that don't come along very often. No "if's" about it, he WILL rebound at the next level; and he WILL score inside in the NBA.
So, what happens if the Wizards are not fortunate enough to get the #1 pick?
We've already discussed picking someone else.... (Thabeet, Hill, James Harden, etc...)
We have already had a discussion about trading down to get more picks, or veteran help, or to pick DeJuan Blair.
But what about TRADING UP?
Is Blake Griffin the kind of player that is worth giving up a young talented player or two, to swap picks with Sacramento, Memphis, OKC, or the Clippers? How about a Veteran and a youngster?
What kind of package would it take to pry Griffin away from the Clippers or Sacto? Would they go for it?
LA Clippers: They already have a crowded front line with Zach Randolph, Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby all signed through 2010. They have been reportedly trying to move Kaman, but his salary ($10.5 Million) and length of contract (through 2012) have most teams backing away. With Eric Gordon and Baron Davis both tied up through at least 2013, the Clippers need versatile wing players.
OKC: This is an interesting team. The Thunder Management has made a full out commitment to playing their young players; and the results have been very good. With a core of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green, and Nick Collison; a sprinkling of veterans (Earl Watson, Nenad Krstic, Chucky Atkins) and some nice young bench players (Thabo Sefolosha, Kyle Weaver) - the only thing they need is a solid big man. Unfortunately for the Wizards, Griffin would fit right in at OKC.... So unless the Wizards could come up with a WOW package that included a bona fide NBA starting Center, I doubt OKC would trade the #1 pick.
Sacramento: Sorry, but that whole line-up is a mess. Someone at Sacto needs to be fired. I mean Kevin Martin is a good player, but the rest are all role players. They need much more than just Blake Griffin. They've got a lot of short guards, and some bigs (Spencer Hawes, Jason Thompson, Donte Greene) but no wing players to speak of. Weird team. That's probably why they're in the Lottery. This team needs a lot of help - and might be willing to trade the #1 for some real players.
Memphis: Forget it. If the Grizzlies get the #1 pick, they'll NEVER trade it. Griffin would plug right into their line up, and make them a Playoff team his first year in the League. People have made fun of the Grizzlies, but they're under the Salary cap; they have a nice core of players locked up to cheap long-term contracts (Rudy Gay, OJ Mayo, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley), Antoine Walker's salary ($8.8 Million) comes off the books this year and gives them even more cap flexibility, and they've started to gel as a team. People won't be laughing at the Grizzlies next year if they get Griffin.
So let's hear from the BF faithful. In your opinion, what kind of package would it take to move up?
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I don’t think we stand a chance trying to move up, most likely if we don’t get the 1st pick we’ll trade down and get some bad contracts out. Our core isn’t old but it isn’t young either, if playoff success doesn’t come within the next few years, it’s over for the current roster. So unless we’re getting Griffin or Rubio I’d say the Wizards are trading the pick, the worst thing for the Wizards in a draft is to pick up another rookie project.
It depends on the deal
I wouldn’t lose sleep over losing any of the young guys (McGee could be great, but so can a lot of skinny centers) and our second pick, but I wouldn’t want to lose multiple prospects so that we can move up two or three spots.
Also, I think it’s important for everyone to not get too worked up over Blake Griffin. He’s great, no doubt about it, and he’s going to be a star, but he’s not a once-every-few-years-type any more than Durant, Derrick Rose, Oden, or Beasley is. He’s a legitimate number one pick, but he doesn’t seem any more likely to be an all-decade caliber player than any other consensus number one pick.
Another thing – drafting fourth or fifth isn’t the end of the world. Chris Paul, Brandon Roy, Deron Williams, and a bunch of other truly elite players were picked or available here. I know that a lot of people are saying that this draft looks weak, but how many reps are made or broken in the NCAA tournament? For all we know, someone like DeMar Derozan who initially had trouble in college could get it together and come out of nowhere to look like an elite player. Also, say what you will about Ernie Grunfeld, but he’s usually shown a good eye for talent, especially in the draft. This is the guy who picked up Dominic McGuire, Blatche, and Michael Redd with mid-second round picks, who traded the rights to Jason Collier (who?) for Joel “The Vanilla Gorilla” Pryzbilla, and who managed to snatch up Javale McGee, a potential franchise center, with the 18th pick in the draft. I’m not saying he’s omniscient or anything like that, but I trust him to get us a good to great player with a top ten pick, regardless of the strength of the draft class.
tl, dr – trust Ernie G.
No one is going to trade the rights to Blake Girffin....
You are right, that he is no Durant or Rose… but he is the only virtually-guaranteed, high-level, no-strings, immediate contributor in this year’s draft class… so te Wizards had best pray that, however many ping-pong balls have their logo on them, one of our balls flies to the top of the NBA lottery machine.
You are also right that Ernie Grunfeld will know what to to with a number 2-6 pick should that be the Wizards’ lot. I think it is likely to be a trade down, as we did with Dallas, which netted us AJ. In this case, however, the draft pickings are so slim that it is unlikely that the pick we trade will turn out to be a player of the level of Devin Harris. More likely, we will have to trade our pick along with one of our potentially good young players (the likely candidates are Nick Young or Andray Blatche) and an expiring contract for a late lottery pick and a proven rotation player… For example, if we could do deal our #2 pick along with Nick Young and Etan Thomas to the Suns for Jason Richardson and their pick, (which should be around #13), the Suns could choose someone like Thabeet (the replacement they need for Shaq) and we could pick a player like DeJuan Blar … Our problems at the 2 guard would disappear immediately and we would have added a high-energy, defensively gifted front court reserve as well.
We shall see.
Hey
I really like that scenario…. Nick Young + Etan + swap 1st round picks for Jason Richardson…
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Where do I sign for that deal . . .
Provided Rubio isn’t in the draft.
"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck
by George Templeton on Mar 15, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd be happy with that
By the way, I think you misunderstood my point about Griffin – I think he is good, and about the same caliber player as other top picks of the last few years, and that these guys are great, but that the none are obviously once in a decade types like Duncan, Shaq, or Lebron. All of the elite players from the last few drafts will most likely be all-stars and maybe even hall of famers, but none (with the possible exception of Durant) seem like they’ll necessarily be first-ballot types who are the face of the league a la Kobe.
God, the more I think about it, the more I like the Richardson idea. Him and Gilbert would instantly make us a decent three point shooting team again, he can play the 3 when we go small, he’s played in up-tempo and down-tempo offenses, and he has a legitimate reason to despise Lebron James. Plus, getting rid of Etan would give us space to sign our second round pick (maybe Jonny Flynn or Ty Lawson?).
by pantslessyoda1 on Mar 15, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
We should only trade up if
we get stuck with the second pick, and Rubio doesn’t declare. Otherwise, its not really worth it.
we will win the lottery...
…how is that for some cheer.
by ucantstopbernard on Mar 15, 2009 12:24 AM EDT reply actions
Trading Up?
Ain’t gonna happen. I don’t see someone giving up Griffin for any package that we’d be willing to do.
Michael Lee of the Washington Post
Apparently agrees with my assessment of Sacramento – but he puts it in much more eloquent terms, calling them perhaps the most poorly assembled team in NBA history
Wow… “most poorly assembled team”…. It just rolls off the tongue like poetry. As opposed to my blundering attempts to say the same thing ( “the whole line-up is a mess” ?!!?!? aaarg…. ).
Now you know why Mike gets paid to write for the Post, and I’m a part-time blogger.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
He's exactly right, though
The Kings just don’t make any sense. At least with teams like New York, The Clippers, or Golden State (which I think plays a center for 25 minutes, a power forward for 15, and fills out the rest of the lineup with swingmen and undersized shooting guards) there’s a method to the madness or a reason for the lack of talent. The Kings are just…broken. Kevin Martin’s a great scorer, but I don’t think he can do anything else, and Thompson seems like the only young player on that team who will really go anywhere.
by pantslessyoda1 on Mar 15, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
SacTown is Very Bad
But it might be unfair to say that they don’t have any potential. I think Spencer Hawes and Jason Thompson have the size and talent to develop into a very good frontcourt tandem for them. They are both very young (20 and 22 respectively) and very big (average size between them of 6’11-1/2" 248 lbs.). With a good new head coach, their is no reason why those two cannot rebound better. Kevin Martin is a good player and they could do a lot worse than Andres Nocioni, who started for all of the Bulls recent playoff runs, at small forward. The only real major lacking they appear to have is at point guard. A player like Ricky Rubio could remake this team into a playoff caliber one, although it might take a couple of seasons for that to happen.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Depends on who you ask cuppet
There are a lot of people on StR who really want Griffin. I’m not one of them. (Until Griffin steps up into Tim Duncan status, I’m going with Rubio.)
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
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I Agree With You
Griffin might be an All-Star caliber PF some day, but so might Thompson. I was very impressed with his play against us. He’s big, athletic, and already your team’s best rebounder (9.2 per 36 minutes). Why go with another PF when you have such potential already there and a big glaring need at PG?
I believe a team should draft according to need unless the difference in talent between players is significant. The truth is, the difference in talent between Griffin and Rubio is not that significant. Of course, if Rubio does not declare, then you’ll have a tougher decision to make.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Except that
That’s the most lopsided, skewed roster in the League. Someone over there is making terrible roster decisions, stockpiling wing players (Diogu, K-Mart, Garcia, Nocioni, Cedric Simmons, Kenny Thomas) and Bigs (Thompson, Hawes, and Donte Greene)….. with only one PG on the entire roster (Beno Udrih), and he’s probably a back-up at best.
With that kind of decision making, you can’t be assured that when the time comes to draft for need (Rubio) versus Best Available (probably Griffin) that they’ll make the right choice.
Sacto does have one player that I really like, though….. Cal Booth sits on the end of their bench…
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

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