The Aging of NBA Prodigies

Interesting article from SI. What struck me as odd is that the only person from an NBA front office interview is our very own Ed Tapscott.

almost 3 years ago mamemimo 10 comments 0 recs |

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Interesting Implications for Andray Blatche

We all like to point out that despite all of Andray’s flaws, he is only 22 years old. But what if the hypothesis presented in this article is correct, and Andray has simply time-shifted his career to his early years? His game now may be the best it is ever going to get. If that is the case, he needs to be traded before other GMs figure this out.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Mar 12, 2009 1:31 PM EDT reply actions

Jermaine O'Neal?

Remember that he took awhile to develop, and became pretty good before his body went out on him.

The Washington Wizards: providing career scoring nights for unknown opposing bench players since 2004.

by mamemimo on Mar 12, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions

That's the Point

Jermaine O’Neal peaked in his mid-20s, instead of his late 20s. Now he is over the hill, broken down, and he’s only 30. Michael Jordan was still in his prime when he was 30.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Mar 13, 2009 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Dray barely played his rookie season, and didn’t play much his sophomore season either. Nowhere close to the players discussed in that article. Dray also didn’t start playing basketball until relatively very late into life.

by Aldo on Mar 12, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Really? I'd always assumed he was a regular player who just hit a huge growth spurt in his teen years

Also, I think that some of the evidence used in the article is selective. O’Neal and especially McGrady all have extremely wirey frames (not even so much a lack of muscle as just very thin bones, it seems), which probably makes them a bit more susceptible to injury. This also kind of applies to KG, I guess. At the same time, even though Kobe’s played more than any of these guys, he’s 30 and doesn’t seem to have lost a step athletically, so I wouldn’t be too worried about Blatche, Dwight Howard, Josh Smith, etc.

by pantslessyoda1 on Mar 12, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions

O’Neal and especially McGrady all have extremely wirey frames (not even so much a lack of muscle as just very thin bones, it seems), which probably makes them a bit more susceptible to injury. This also kind of applies to KG, I guess.

That would also apply to Andray Blatche.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Mar 13, 2009 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

I just think that his thinness (if that’s actually a word) is what could do him in, rather than the fact that he skipped college. Besides, he only played 29 games his rookie year, so it was actually easier on his body than a year of college would have been.

by pantslessyoda1 on Mar 13, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions

I think Taps is quoted because Steve was assigned to cover the Minnesota/Wiz game

He’s a former Star Tribune reporter, so that would make sense. He was there anyway, may as well ask Taps the questions.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Mar 12, 2009 10:50 PM EDT reply actions

An interesting idea poorly argued

I think it’s certainly worth discussing the theory put forth in the article, but Aschburner seems to pick and choose his examples to fit. What’s more, he only cites three examples of HS draftees whose injury problems may or may not have come before you’d expect them.

Let’s say McGrady was 22 when he came into the leave. If that was true, then he would’ve missed 35 games when he was…30. If Aschburner’s right, isn’t that supposed to be when his prime would be?

Saying “LeBron James has played more minutes at his age than Oscar Robinson did” ignores a variety of factors, not least advances in modern sports medicine. His whole argument seems to be “Jermaine O’Neal and Tracy McGrady have injury problems this year, and they were drafted out of high school, so maybe all high school players will develop injury problems,” which any college freshman philosophy student can tell you is all kinds of wrong.

Moses Malone played 82 games (and was productive) as late as his age-36 season.
Al Harrington is 29 (the same age as McGrady) and hasn’t showed any signs of any serious impending issues (that I know of).

On the flipside, and closer to home, what about players like Arenas who did go to college for at least a few years and can’t stay healthy in their mid-20s (also applied to Baron Davis)? Or with a guy like Terrell Brandon, late-20s (which, remember, is Aschburner’s defninition of "prime")

This article reads like Aschburner got an idea, spent five minutes researching it, talked to one person about it (and no athletic trainers or medical people, notice) then wrote it up. Given how poorly argued this article is, it’s somewhat fitting that the one person he talked to was Tapscott.

by Jon L on Mar 13, 2009 12:17 PM EDT reply actions