Draft Prospect - Jordan Hill

by Rook6980 on Mar 11, 2009 5:12 PM EDT

In keeping with my assessments of the top draft prospects, I present my review of Jordan Hill of the Arizona Wildcats.

Previous Draft Prospect assessments:

Blake Griffin

Ricky Rubio

Hasheem Thabeet

Jordan Hill

Jordanhill_medium

Kevork Djansezian/AP Photo

Team: Arizona Wildcats
Height / Wt: 6'10" / 235
Position: Power Forward
Age: Junior, 21 Years Old
Best Case: Elton Brand

Athleticism	9
Leadership	6
Size for position	9
Jump shot	7
Footwork & Fundamentals	7
Post skills	8
Ball Handling	6
Perimeter Defense	6
Post Defense	8
Help Defense	9
Passing ability	6
Speed/Quickness	7
Basketball IQ	6
Intensity level	7

Hill is the proto-typical College Power Forward, and it won't take much for him to have the proto-typical NBA body either. He has a big wiry frame (6'10"), with long arms and excellent strength. Very athletic and quick, Jordan can run the floor with the best of the big men. (Runs like a deer, jumps outta the gym). He should easily be able to add another 15-20 pounds without sacrificing any of his natural athleticism or quickness.

Offensively, Hill is a mixed bag. He gets great position down low, where he can use a variety of basic post moves to score. He's explosive around the rim, finishing nearly everything, even through contact. Other than the dunk, his pet move is a very effective right-handed jump-hook shot. He's also a very good Offensive rebounder, using his size and athleticism to good use there, playing well above the rim. Hill has a fairly consistent mid-range jump shot, out to about 18 feet; so he can play the high post pick-and-roll or pick-and-pop game. Combine that with an extremely quick first step, and Hill becomes a very dangerous player on the outside; able to hit a 15-18 ft jumper or put the ball on the floor and drive to the rim. On the other hand, throw anything unusual at him, and he seems to struggle. When double-teamed, he tends to force things, frequently leading to turn overs. He sometimes plays out of control (see: bull in a china shop). He lacks advanced low post moves (drop step, spins, pivots, left hand, etc...) so his game is stiff and somewhat predictable. Hill is not a very good passer, so if he doesn't make a quick move, or immediately pass the ball back out, he frequently commits a turn over. Unfortunately, even though Hill gets to the FT line a lot, he's not a good foul shooter.

Defensively, Hill is a terrific shot blocker and help defender. He's got tremendous timing and awareness as he rotates over from the weak side to block shots. Hill is good on the Defensive boards, but tends to use his athleticism rather than technique (blocking out) to gather in rebounds. That could be a problem at the next level, when he goes up against more seasoned players. As an individual defender, Hill only grades out as average. He has very good lateral quickness, which should help in defending the pick-and-roll.... but he has poor defensive technique, which sometimes leads to foul trouble. His length, quickness and athleticism frequently bails him out. At the College level, he can stand up straight, not move his feet, or give up position - and still be an effective defender because of his quickness, height and jumping ability; but he needs to improve his technique to be a good defender in the NBA, otherwise he'll be fouling out of every game. The defensive tools are there (size, length, wingspan, lateral quickness, jumping ability, athleticism, etc...) - so, with proper coaching, he has the potential to be an exceptional individual defender.

During several games earlier this year, I noticed Hill had trouble catching the ball (small hands?).... That problem seems to have been solved over the last 10 games or so, and I haven't seen a recurrence. He still tends to disappear during stretches of some games, not playing with intensity throughout the entire game.

Overall, Jordan Hill should be a top 5 Lottery pick, and depending on the team, could start and contribute right away. If he continues to work hard, Hill has a lot of upside. He's already a very good Offensive player, but with improvement in his advanced post moves, he can get much better. In the right system, with the right coach, he could also be a stellar defender.

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Comments

Great analysis

Can you give us an “upside/downside” player comparison?

by MR on Mar 11, 2009 5:55 PM EDT reply actions

sure

Ricky Rubio –
Looks like Pistol Pete Maravich
Upside: a combination of Steve Nash, Chris Paul and Magic Johnson
Most Likely: Steve Nash
Downside: a combination of Jason Williams and Deron Williams

Blake Griffin –
Upside: Perhaps as good as Charles Barkley or Karl Malone
Most Likely: A bigger and more athletic Carlos Boozer
Downside: David Lee

Hasheem Thabeet –
Upside: Dikembe Mutombo
Most Likely: Samuel Dalembert
Downside: Desagana Diop

Jordan Hill –
Upside: Chris Bosh (but he’ll have to work extremely hard)
Most Likely: Udonis Haslem
Downside: Chris Wilcox

Now – I gotta admit that I borrowed some of these upside/downside names from some of the Mock draft sites…. but I think they fit…

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Mar 11, 2009 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions

I like Hill

Definitely #3 on my board right now. Even though he’s probably not a #3 in pick in most drafts, if he was on the board I wouldn’t trade down unless there was a really good deal and there was a good chance that DeJuan Blair would still be on the board wherever we landed. I think he’s still a good enough player to make him worth taking, even if he goes a couple spots higher than he’d normally go.

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by Jake Whitacre on Mar 11, 2009 11:05 PM EDT reply actions

I dunno

Maybe I’m just overly cautious/paranoid, but a guy who rates as an average college defender who struggles when thrown anything “unusual” defensively who has no low post moves, sometimes plays out of control and relies solely on his athleticism to get rebounds doesn’t sound all that great to me. Also, I’m not sure how those numbers are derived, but a “6” for basketball IQ doesn’t help his case.

by Jon L on Mar 12, 2009 12:37 AM EDT reply actions

Typical Lute Olson recruit.

Undervalued coming out of HS, but raises his draft stock like whoa during his Arizona career.

We are truly in the presense of greatness here…-- unnamedDBacksfan

by DbacksSkins on Mar 12, 2009 4:47 AM EDT reply actions

How the grades are "derived"

I certainly don’t use a mathematical equation, or statistical analysis to grade these players….

It’s simply my assessment after watching them play.

For Thabeet, and Jordan Hill, I watched at least 15 games this year…. Griffin a few less…. and Rubio, I only saw 4 games (but I did watch some youtube stuff, mostly partial games)….

As for Hill’s grade of 6 for Basketball IQ…. It relates to his inability to pass the ball. He cannot see the double-team coming. He doesn’t find cutters. And occasionally, although not as often later in the year, he seemed to become lost on defense…. (ie: completely out of position)…

Right now, like Jake, I’d rate Hill #3 in the Draft right now; and I don’t see how he would ever fall below #5 (even with a poor showing in the tournament)… But #3 in this draft, is a big drop off in telent level from #1 (Griffin) and #2 (Rubio)…

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Mar 12, 2009 9:50 AM EDT reply actions

I admire your dedication

by MR on Mar 12, 2009 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions

thanks rook

Thanks for these great draft assessments.

There’s been a lot of talk here about several PFs to draft, and understandably so given the talents of Griffin, Hill and Blair.

That said, if the Wizards were to draft one of these player, would that make the team’s player rotations at that position even more of a mess? Already they have Jamison, Blatche and Songalia who are natural 4s. While IMHO they should keep McGee mostly at the 5, I’m also curious to see the team match him up with haywood at least for a few minutes here and there next year.

So where would another PF fit? I know the Wizards will be looking to make a trade in the offseason, quite likely one that includes this lottery pick. But let’s assume this pick stays with the Wizards, the next most likely trade scenario as I see it involves Blatche combined with an expiring contract (I don’t see them trading Jamison because they won’t get anything close to what he’s worth in return).

So here are two questions for you guys:
1. Do we want to add another PF to the mix (clearly you don’t pass on a guy like Griffin, but the other guys?)?
2. If drafting one of these PFs also results in trading Blatche, is it worth it? In my opinion, Blatche still has quite a bit of upside and has made some strides this year.

So what you think?

by Johnnie Futbol on Mar 12, 2009 10:06 AM EDT reply actions

Spot on Johnnie F

Griffin is the one no-brainer in this draft. If the Wizards get the #1 pick, the discussion is over.

If the Wizards get the #2 pick, the likelihood would probably be to go with Rubio, although there are some financial considerations here that could complicate things.

After that, I think you are right. Blatche is already at what 10 and 6? With some added physical strength and endurance, and therefore more PT, let’s say his peak is in the 14-16 and 7-9 range… Jordan Hill is not likely to do much better. DeJuan Blair I think is Jason Maxiell redux, which ain’t bad but as you say, we have a lot of PFs around…. unless we choose to part with one.

My guess is if the Wizards wind up with 3-4-5-6, they will swap the choice to a height-challenged team that really has to take a flyer on Hill or Thabeet, in which case they could either try to trade the high pick, plus an expiring contract, plus Nick Young for a proven rotation player (Linas Kleiza, Andres Nocioni, Marquis Daniels) plus a 10-11-12 choice and grab Stephen Curry, the three-point specialist we really have to have… or replace Young with Blatche in the deal and take Blair with the draft pick, on the basis that Blatche will simply NEVER bring the type of energy off the bench that Blair does and will.

The other bargaining chip the Wizards can offer in a deal is their second round pick, which will still be a top 30 selection.

by khrabb on Mar 12, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions

Devil's Advocate

In general I’m not a huge fan of trading Blatche, but:

He’s averaging 10 and 5 this year, which sounds okay, but it took him four years to get to that point. It’s also true that his production jumped up a bit last year, but so did his minutes, and in fact his rebound rate went down a little bit and it’s gone down again this year. He also hasn’t shown any inclination to step up his weight training, because again, this is his fourth year and it’s essentially a team-wide joke. It’s true that his numbers might go up if he gets even more playing time, but how likely is that to happen? Jamison will still be the starting PF next year and Haywood will be back; the only way he gets more time is if one of them goes down for the season, and even with Haywood out for the entire year this season Blatche is still averaging less than 25 minutes a game (though hopefully the next coach will be, you know, competant).

Bottom line, as much as I want to see Blatche succeed and improve, I think there are real questions about whether he’ll ever reach a point where he’s no longer inconsistent and frustrating.

Also if they trade Nick Young for Andres Nocioni or Marquis Daniels I don’t think I’ll ever stop yelling.

by Jon L on Mar 12, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

Nocioni or Daniels for NY PLUS swap draft pick PLUS expiring? Am I missing something?

by MR on Mar 12, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions

still...

He’s a very young 4th year player. At 22 there’s still a lot of room for maturity. Our brains aren’t even fully developed until around our early 20s.

While his numbers aren’t necessarily a step forward, when I do get to watch the Wizards (I’ll probably only get to see about 15-20 games this year) I have noticed that Blatche just seems more comfortable on the court than in the past. I also remember in past years stretches where Blatche was just awful, and that hasn’t been an issue for him this year. He could benefit from putting on a few pounds, but he’s not rail thin either. I also think occassionally he gets caught trying to do too much, though that I guess is balanced by the occassional spectacular play. Anyways I agree the jury’s still out on Blatche. One thing I would argue pretty strongly however is players like Hill and Blair are going to need 1-2 years before they catch up to Blatche in value on the court (if they ever do).

by Johnnie Futbol on Mar 12, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Agree: drafting Hill = bye-bye Blatche

Both Jamison and Songaila are who they are (pretty deep stuff huh?). Hill could provide the skills AJ and DS lack (athletic rebounds, blocking shots, defensive effectiveness to name a few), so that’s not a draft problem in my mind.

The wild card is Blatche. Offensively, he’s leaps and bounds ahead of Hill and Blair. Defensively, Hill and Blair are immediate improvements (just my opinion). Hill seems to be the bizarro-Blatche in many ways. They have the same body, but completely different playing styles. If we draft Hill w/ the 3, 4, or even 5 pick, Blatche has to moved, doesn’t he?

If we magically trade down and take Blair, Blatche could stick around. These two kinda compliment eachother (skinny/tall/soft and wide/short/strong).

by jvflail on Mar 12, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions