More on the Darius/JaVale consistency issue
Lots of thought provoking stuff as always from Kevin Broom.
about 3 years ago
Jake Whitacre
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One Caveat
The one caveat to this analysis is that these numbers don’t include defense (beyond steals, blocks and fouls) – and the defense is significantly better when Songaila is on the floor.
I don’t agree with Tap’s decision to play Songaila over McGee because of consistency. With that out of the way, I think we all know that defense is JaVale’s biggest weakness and he has to learn the fundamentals of it if he is ever going to be a consistent force in this league. He has got to stop giving up the lane in vain attempts to block shots and start bodying up. If he can’t hold his ground, then he needs to both bulk up in the weight room and learn Songaila’s method of using the weight he has more effectively. Until he does, all the highlight alley-oops in the world won’t stop him from being a liability for the Wizards while he is on the court.
Highest Plus/Minus: Darius Songaila (+7)
Lowest Plus/Minus: JaVale McGee (-21)
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
I agree - and disagree
I see your points about Defense. Obviously, Darius holds his ground better than JaVale. Darius knows the defensive rotations, and plays smart.
On the other hand, Songaila does NOTHING to deter opponents from driving the lane…. He does NOTHING to alter shots inside…. He CANNOT block shots. He is TOO SLOW to effectively rotate out on perimeter shooters.
McGee, while raw, and deficient in many ways – is still a better “off-ball” defender than Songaila.
In a perfect Wizards world, Haywood would still be starting – and McGee would be getting 10 minutes a game (against 2nd string Centers) backing up at Center. Songaila would be backing up Jamison for 10 minutes a game at PF ; where he belongs.
Haywood WAS able to hold his ground inside. He KNEW the defensive rotations, and he played smart. He was also a communicator on defense. He could deter opponents from driving the lane. He could alter shots inside. He blocked shots.
Unfortunately, in the imperfect world of the 2008-2009 Wizards season – Haywood is injured.
So pick your poison:
Play Songaila and invite a layup procession through the lane; knowing that Darius will NEVER improve.
OR
Play McGee and watch bigger, stronger players push him around; hoping that giving him minutes will produce improvement.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Oh and by the way
Those +/- stats were from ONE game….
Where are the +/- stats for the whole year? How about here.
So, according to the +/- stats, the two WORST players on the Wizards are Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler… followed closely by JaVale McGee. And the BEST player is Pecherov, followed closely by Songaila. I wouldn’t put a whole lot of stock in the +/- stats when comparing individual players.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
I Wanted to Stay Away From the Obvious Point
The obvious point is that JaVale needs to play more so that he can develop quicker and correct his mistakes. Assuming Ernie keeps the kid, that is a no-brainer. I merely wanted to point out that it is the defense that JaVale needs the most work on, specifically his on-ball defense, which you agree with me on. Improving in this one area alone would immensely improve his game and his consistency. And it would seem one of the easiest areas for him to improve on, since it is mostly just solid fundamentals.
Yes, I realize that the +/- was just from one game. Yet it is indicative of the two players’ performances all season, and what is more noteworthy about that stat is that Darius played 6 minutes less than JaVale. I wholeheartedly disagree that +/- is not a useful way to analyze an individual player’s contribution to his team. Just like points, though, not factoring in minutes played can skew the result.
Try this – take that same link that you gave above and copy the table into a spreadsheet. Sort by minutes played, and delete all players who have played less than 500 minutes this season in order to account for sample size. Then resort the table you have left by +/- /Min. Below is your new table, which does a much better job of demonstrating each player’s positive/negative impact on this team.
+------------+-------+-----+------+----+----------+--------+--+ | Player 1 | Team | + | - |+/- | Min |+/- /Min|G | +------------+-------+-----+------+----+----------+--------+--+ |D. Songaila |Wizards|1,469|-1,497|-28 | 733:01:00| -0.038 |41| +------------+-------+-----+------+----+----------+--------+--+ |N. Young |Wizards|1,758|-1,794|-36 | 901:00:00| -0.039 |42| +------------+-------+-----+------+----+----------+--------+--+ |A. Blatche |Wizards|1,743|-1,819|-76 | 908:07:00| -0.083 |39| +------------+-------+-----+------+----+----------+--------+--+ |A. Jamison |Wizards|3,191|-3,475|-284|1611:57:00| -0.176 |42| +------------+-------+-----+------+----+----------+--------+--+ |C. Butler |Wizards|2,970|-3,254|-284|1493:24:00| -0.190 |39| +------------+-------+-----+------+----+----------+--------+--+ |M. James |Wizards|1,422|-1,562|-140| 735:26:00| -0.190 |25| +------------+-------+-----+------+----+----------+--------+--+ |D. McGuire |Wizards|1,561|-1,718|-157| 811:19:00| -0.193 |40| +------------+-------+-----+------+----+----------+--------+--+ |D. Stevenson|Wizards|1,582|-1,763|-181| 805:24:00| -0.224 |29| +------------+-------+-----+------+----+----------+--------+--+ |J. McGee |Wizards| 983|-1,168|-185| 528:18:00| -0.350 |37| +------------+-------+-----+------+----+----------+--------+--+
As you can see, Jamison and Butler are not the worst +/- offenders on this team. JaVale McGee is by far. Darius is the best, followed very closely by Nick Young. Antawn and Caron are in the middle of the pack, which is not surprising, considering that they are constantly being overworked on such a lousy team. In the first three quarters, I would speculate that they are both probably near the top of this table. But by the fourth quarter, both of those guys run out of gas, which is why our team collapses so often in the 4th quarter, in my opinion. Both of those guys average 1,500 minutes played this year. No other player has even played 1,000 minutes yet.
If you don’t exclude for sample size, JaVale is still last in +/-, but at least he has company – he’s tied with Etan Thomas. Opec takes the lead by far in this case, as he is the only player on the team that has a positive +/- for the season.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
We agree
Javale needs to improve on his on-ball defense…
I just never liked the +/- stat. I believe it reflects more on a team’s record, than on the individual player’s ability to impact the game. ie: players on good teams will have a high +/- rating, and players that play extended minutes on a losing team will have a poor +/- rating.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
I Think +/- is a Lot More Effective
When comparing players on the same team than it does when comparing players on other teams. Perhaps John Hollinger should develop a new +/- stat that takes into account the average +/- of each player’s team per minute. Say, for example, that Cleveland as a team outscores its opponents by an average of 0.2 points per minute. Than subtract 0.2 from each Cleveland player’s +/- per minute calculation before comparing him to other players around the league. I think then you’ll see a list of the best players in the league at the top, not just a list of the players on the best teams.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Defensive on/off
The numbers I looked at for the “…the defense is significantly better when Songaila is on the floor” line came from www.82games.com. When Songaila is on the court, the Wiz are 6.4 points per 100 possessions BETTER defensively than when he sits. When McGee is on the floor, the Wiz are 2.1 points per 100 possessions WORSE defensively than when he sits.
Now let me add a caveat to my blogged caveat. :) 2.1 points is a pretty small number in +/-, especially since it covers only about half a season. What the 2.1 point change suggests is that McGee doesn’t make much of an impact on overall team defense — better or worse. Songaila’s +6.4 points approaches significance, BUT it’s way out of line with his career defensive on/off numbers, which suggests it’s an aberration. My guess is that Songaila’s defensive on/off will get worse as the season progresses. It may not get back to the “close to zero” number he’s posted through most of his career, but by season end it’ll be closer to his career average than the current number.


















