Random Thoughts Running Through My Mind
by Jake Whitacre on Feb 24, 2009 8:37 PM EST
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PrintYou may have noticed that since Pradamaster took his hiatus that I've been sticking to game threads and recaps. Part of that is by design (so I don't end up burning out too) and part of that has been because of some computer issues, but now that I've got a little window of free time I'm going to try to get to some of the thoughts that I haven't been able to elaborate on yet.
- The big talk around practice is that Gilbert and Brendan will come back with 15 games or so left in the season. The thing to watch out for is a 4 game road trip that will send the Wizards out tp the West Coast right around that time. I get the feeling the team will want to bring the Gilbert and Brendan back on the court for a home game and that they'd much rather go on the cautious side for this one, so my guess for a return date would be March 23rd when the Wizards come back from that road trip to face the Bulls at home. I'll probably end up wrong on this one, but it seems like a good date to come back to me.
- One thing that's been lost in all of the hoopla over the return of Gilbert and Brendan to practice is that we haven't heard anything about DeShawn Stevenson recently. Does anyone remember when his back injury was only supposed to sideline him for 2.5 weeks? To date, he's only played 2 games in the 2009 calendar year. I don't want to speculate, but I'm curious about what's going on there.
- Michael Lee chronicled Nick Young's up-and-down season today in Wizards Insider. He points out a common criticism that's been brought up with him throughout his young career: When he's not scoring, he's not doing a whole lot. I would agree that his ability to score the ball is the only area where he's above average. Yet, it's intersting to note that the team is better defensively and better at rebounding when he's on the floor, even though he himself isn't a great defender or rebounder. Your guess as to why that is is as good as mine, but I suppose it's worth noting. Maybe he's got a little Battier in him.
- If the Wizards still plan on using their first round pick as bait to get someone take one of the team's bad salaries and get under the tax, Hollinger has a trade proposal for the Wizards to consider:
The most interesting case by far is Washington. It appears that its best route to getting under the tax would be to trade its first-round pick -- which could be first or second overall -- to a contender along with a handful of bad contracts, and get back a productive player on a good contract. Just to create one completely hypothetical (I emphasize hypothetical) scenario, they could send the pick along with Darius Songaila and Etan Thomas to Memphis for Marc Gasol and get under the line.
That would allow the Wizards to keep together their nucleus of Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison, plus they'd have Marc Gasol, Brendan Haywood, Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee up front. Since the Wizards are firmly in win-now mode anyway based on their recent salary decisions, trading a high pick in a weak draft seems a reasonable strategy.
I've got to say that probably wouldn't be all that bad of a move if the goal is still to get under the tax this off-season at all costs. A frontline rotation with Haywood, Jamison, Gasol, Blatche, McGee, and Pecherov has the potential to be very nice. Sure, there's no Blake Griffin in that lineup, but I could live with it.
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Interesting trade scenario
by Hollinger. The offseason should be pretty intriguing, to say the least.
Young and Crittenton should be getting at least 25 minutes every night. It’s not like this team should be worried about losing anymore games.
Would this get the Wizards under the tax for this year or next?
IMHO, I hate this deal. I think we are at least a piece away from winning, so keeping Jamison and ending up with Marc Gasol instead of a top draft pick does not serve us as well as trading Jamison before the deadline for an expiring deal (not Cleveland) and getting the draft pick and a solid veteran with the cap-space from the Jamison trade would have served us.
Since we kept Jamison, we simply have to pay up. Plus, we kept Jamison in order to win now, meaning the three years left on Jamison’s deal. Assuming that the team goes through rebuilding years at the end of those three years (Caron Gil and Haywood about 32 and Jamison 35 ), our salary will be a bit below the luxury tax so we can save the money then to offset the overspending of these next few years, the luxury tax years.
by morethesamewiz on Feb 24, 2009 10:21 PM EST reply actions
I think this year
But I’m not the capologist, so don’t quote me on that. But I agree that if they were really looking to dump salary, the deadline was the best time to do it.
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by Jake Whitacre on Feb 24, 2009 10:33 PM EST up reply actions
definitely not a capologist either...
when I read trade ideas like the one from Hollinger (Marc Gasol for 1st round pick, Songalia and Etan) it just makes me even more confused with how trades work in the NBA. A 2nd year player (i.e. someone who doesn’t make much in salary) can be traded for a draft pick and two veteran contracts (together totaling almost $15 mil in contracts)??? Is that really true?
In any case, why would Memphis even make this trade – the way Gasol has played his value has to be considered close to that of a high lottery pick in a very weak draft, no?
That said, I also imagine Grunfeld would seek out a player more experienced that has more chance of helping.
by Johnnie Futbol on Feb 25, 2009 9:54 AM EST up reply actions
hmmm...
I guess if Memphis is under the salary cap they can make a trade like this.
by Johnnie Futbol on Feb 25, 2009 9:58 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah
Memphis would be able to make that move because they’re under salary cap. Given their recent history, they don’t seem like the team that likes adding on salary for no good reason, but they might make an exception if they can get a high pick.
Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.
by Jake Whitacre on Feb 25, 2009 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
Plus the luxury tax
is a reasonable amount of money given that its being used to salvage the last six years of Grunfeld assembling a roster of his own players. It’s not a tax for 2009-2010, its a tax for 2003-2010
by morethesamewiz on Feb 24, 2009 10:34 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting tidbit on Young
Doesn’t exactly sound like Taps hates the guy as some people seem to think.
I Think this is a terrible trade
We are not is a terrible luxury tax situation. One season we will be over the luxury tax, and then next year we will be back under just by letting two guys walk who we don’t even want on the team (James and Etan). To walk away from a top 5 pick, just to get under the tax for one season makes no sense to me. Because over the long term the benefits of 4 seasons of cheap labor, plus the possible development of an all-star to save a few million???? It would be different if we have a terrible luxury tax for the next for 2-3 seasons, and this would get us under the luxury tax now and position us to make additions in the future. But we are not going to be signing anyone this off season or next. We will be under the luxury tax after one year either way, but in one situation we save some money and get a solid role player. In the other, it costs us $10M, but we have a potential all-star, or at a minimum a value trade chip to package with other young guys. I think a salary dump, especially sacrificing draft picks would be a monumental mistake.
Look at the difference between the suns and spurs. the suns sell draft picks (which is essentially what we would be doing) for cap relief, but then have to sign vets over the long term for roster spots, bench support. They loose guys like rondo, and other very talented players and now have no hope of winning a title. The spurs, drafted well, got guys like manu and parker later in the draft, and developed talent, and now are contenders every year. Salary dump for draft picks is not the way to build a winner, in the short or long term, especially with the potential to add a top 5 pick. Griffin or no Griffin
It all depends on what happens May 19th
That’s when the Draft Lottery happens.
If the Wizards get the #1 pick (Blake Griffin), then I think they should pay the tax for one year… and draft Griffin.
On the other hand, if it’s a #2 – #5 pick, trade it to get under the tax, dump Etan’s albatross contract, and get back a young talented player with a reasonable contract.
No one in this year’s draft (except Griffin) is worth paying the tax for.
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Really?
Rook, name one draft that hasn’t produced two really good players. Etan’s “albatross contract” has only one year left, and becomes a bigger “albatross” if he’s traded. Why are you so concerned — as a fan — with the team not paying the luxury tax for one year that you are willing to just give away a top pick when there are better, less costly ways to avoid or reduce the tax that don’t sacrifice talent? I can understand team management thinking about the bottom line and making a shortsighted decision to dump a pick to save a few million. But I’m at a loss why fans are so eager to do that, to adopt the “Avoid the Luxury Tax or Bust” banner. Teams very often pay through the nose to add a real talent to their team — by overpaying for a free agent (see, e.g., Lewis, Rashard), for example — so if the Wizards have the opportunity to add a top 5 pick in exchange for a one year luxury tax hit, isn’t that pretty much the going rate to add talent?
As for the comment about no one except Griffin being worth paying the tax for, I would be thrilled if the Wizards added Griffin, Rubio, Hardin, Monroe or Hill with their pick. Adding that sort of talent might lead the team to make money, rather than lose tax money, through increased revenues if the team improves, or perhaps via a trade down the road that nets them some benefits.
I would be thrilled if the Wizards added Griffin or Rubio - and bummed with ANYONE else.
Rook, name one draft that hasn’t produced two really good players.
How about the 2000 draft… where the top 10 picks produced a total of one (count em 1) All-Star appearance (Kenyon Martin 2003-04):
Kenyon Martin
Stromile Swift
Darius Miles
Marcus Fizer
Mike Miller
DerMarr Johnson
Chris Mihm
Jamal Crawford
Joel Przybilla
Keyon Dooling
This year’s draft is worse than 2000. If Ricky Rubio does not declare for this year’s draft, then the 2009 Draft will be a one pony show; because Griffin is the only All-Star quality talent in the entire draft…
Last year’s draft was one of the best in the last 30 years… with lots of 1st round picks (and some 2nd rounders) contributing in a big way. There are several players that have All-Star talent (Derrick Rose, Beasley, OJ Mayo, Kevin Love, Brook Lopez, JaVale McGee)…
This year’s draft (2009) is the worst in the last 30 years. Other than Rubio and Griffin – NOT ONE of those other players has the kind of talent that the Wizards could get in a trade – NOT Hardin, NOT Monroe, NOT Thabeet, Hill, Brandon Jennings, Stephen Curry, or anyone else in the 2009 Draft. AND Rubio is not a lock to declare – he has a huge buy out on his Spanish contract ($9 Million) that keeps him from declaring for the draft for 2 more years… Unless he can work out a deal to get out of his contract, he’s stuck in Spain.
Griffin is a beast. A true FRANCHISE player. Better than any of the top 10 picks in the last 3 drafts. Yes… in my opinion, he’s gonna be better than Rose, Mayo, Durant, Oden, and Brandon Roy. Not since Chris Paul came out in 2005 has there been a player the caliber of Griffin. If the Wizards are lucky enough to score the #1 pick – THEY SHOULD PAY WHATEVER IT TAKES TO GET HIM.
Just so there’s no ambiguity, by the way – I feel almost as strongly about Ricky Rubio. I think he’s the next Steve Nash.
I have always advocated paying the tax for ONE YEAR – and using the expiring contracts of James and Thomas to bring in veteran help at the trade deadline in Feb 2010. HOWEVER, if the Wizards could package Thomas and the #2, 3, 4 OR 5 pick and get back a Brandon Roy, or a Lemarcus Aldridge, or a Marc Gasol… They should do it. NONE of the players that the Wizards could pick at 2 through 5 (assuming Rubio stays in Spain), would be better than those players…. AND there are plenty of other good, young, talented players out there that the pick might get us as well… ALL better than Hardin, Jennings or Curry……..ALL with higher upsides…….AND the Wizards could even stay under the tax.
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Stinky trade
Agree wholeheartedly with Blatche4MVP. Why trade a top five pick for a guy that, if McGee develops, will be your third string center (or maybe 4th string behind Blatche) just to save a couple of bucks. Wiz management needs to decide whether they are in the business to win, or just to make money.
If we want to make a trade, what about this
Wiz Get:
Chris Bosh
Toronto Gets:
Antwan Jamison
Andray Blatche
2009 1st rd pick
Why we do it. Saves us some money this year, and we get Chirs Bosh. Enough said. We would also have the cap space to offer him a huge contract in the off-season, first chance to negotiate, and hopefully a winning team he wants to play for. There clearly is a risk he would walk, but why would he want to leave Gil and Caron as running mates. That is a scary team
Why Toronto does it? They realize they are losing Bosh either way, so that have to trade him or risk getting nothing in return. The get a vet, who brings all in intangibles(leadership, does the right thing, etc) who also puts up 20 and 10 every night. A young 7 footer who has 3 more years on a very cheap contract, and they get a top 5 pick. Helps them win now, and in the future.
not really sure i would do this…. seems like we are giving up a lot for a player who is about the same as AJ (and actually has a higher TO ratio)… and he is prolly going to want gilbert type money…
by sexypills03 on Feb 25, 2009 11:28 AM EST up reply actions
well i guess Bosh’s age is a big plus now that i am thinking about it… but still seems like a lot
by sexypills03 on Feb 25, 2009 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
Yes but
could we keep him?
This deal could shorten our window from 3 years to one.
That said, it would be a staggering lineup.
The trade would come with a built-in contract extension so we would keep him
Presumably.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Well that would be awesome, although I’m guessing it would make our cap situation worse in the long and short term. Although with a deal like that maybe you say screw the cap.
I could see why the Wiz would do it, I can see why Toronto would do it. Not sure why Bosh would.
would Bosh sign an extension?
Do a Sign-and-Trade?
Perhaps he would, if he thought he’d have a better chance at a championship with Arenas and Butler rather than with Calderon and Bargnani….
Also, consider that because of the Salary Cap not increasing for the next couple of years, the fabulous 2010 Free Agent class may have fewer teams in a position to deal for high priced talent. Lots of FA players, with fewer suitors means less dollars to spread around.
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If I were him
I might be inclined to wait to see what Cleveland, Chicago, NYK etc offer down the line rather than tie into DC right now. Maybe maybe not.
I assume
this would be an offseason trade.
If you are shooting the moon on a possible one year deal (unless he extends before the trade) then doing it in Feb seems less attractive.
I'm saying
We only want Bosh if he extends. He’ll only agree to do so if he sees that we’re actually decent. That won’t happen before this summer.
I don't think it's really kill our cap
Jamison and Blatche are both on long-term deals.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Ok
Then I would do this, although I’d try to hang onto Blatche. Maybe they’d settle for AJ and a high pick (and an expiring?).
I'd like to keep Blatche too
But I don’t see him as a dealbreaker. Bosh is exactly the type of player I’d trade Blatche for.
Problem is, I doubt Toronto wants Jamison. Maybe Butler, Blatche and the pick?
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Well, they have Marion now
Who can swing to the 4, assuming they re-sign him.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Oh
Yeah, that’s a bit of a concern, but we could move Jamison down to the 3, where he was when we had Jeffries.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
WHAT?!?!?!
Bosh is a better scorer, rebounder, much better defender, is only 24, has a higher PER. There really is no comparison between Bosh and Jamison. Love Jamison, but Bosh is much better
Click reply
Though you are correct.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
The big thing you said right there was "better defender"
A front line of Haywood, Bosh and McGuire is a terrific defensive line up. Subs Andray Blatche and Songaila aren’t too bad defensively either.
Line up:
PG: Arenas, Crittenton
SG: Butler, Stevenson, Young
SF: McGuire, Butler
PF: Bosh, Songaila
C: Haywood, Blatche, McGee
Then make one more trade:
Trade Mike James’ expiring contract at the Trade Deadline (Feb 2010) for a deadly 3-point shooter
Maybe Toronto would be willing to give up Jason Kapono. James’ expiring contract would help them get approx $22M under the salary cap; and they could go after one of the 2010 big name Free Agents…
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The scenario had us losing Blatche.
Not sure I understand Toronto’s motivation to give up on Bosh then look for expiring contracts to hope to lure someone else there.
Blatche was in there by mistake
Line up:
PG: Arenas, Crittenton
SG: Butler, Stevenson, Young
SF: McGuire, Butler
PF: Bosh, Songaila
C: Haywood, McGee
With Bosh gone and Jamison in his place…. the Raptors have a line up that includes Calderon, Bargnani and Jamison…. not quite enough to contend in my opinion. Probably a 5th or 6th seed playoff team. They need another piece. Another All-Star.
Kapono’s contract runs through 2011 – and he’s not a starting quality player. He can shoot the 3, but he does little else.
If they trade Kapono for an expiring contract at the Feb 2010 trade deadline, they would be in a position to offer one of the major FA’s big money to come contend…..
Toronto needs a good SG, and Joe Johnson, Dwyane Wade and Michael Redd will all be available. They could also use a SF (wing player) like Josh Howard or Peja Stojakovic.
So a line up with Calderon, Joe Johnson, Jamison and Bargnani would be a very good nucleus.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
I was actually thinking
We could give them Etan as a 2010 expiring in return for taking Kapono off their hands.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
and now we are at:
Jamison, Blatche, Thomas, 1st Rd Pick for Bosh, Kapono..
What about James and Pech for next season? Luckily both of these guys prolly wont be here in 10-11… james (expired contract) and Pech (team option)
I definitely agree with unloading some of our PF/C guys for a better defending 4 and a 3 pt shooter.
I'm thinking we swap first-rounders instead of just outright giving the first rounder
I need to think about this a little more though.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Minor detail
don’t we all agree that Butler at SG isn’t working?
by MR on Feb 25, 2009 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
besides...
Stevenson’s gonna be back better than ever next year. : )
by Johnnie Futbol on Feb 25, 2009 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
Not so sure....
Give him an extra off-season to work on his ball handling…. with Arenas in the back court with him… I think he’d do pretty well…
I think he matches up well with the other big SG’s in the East (Joe Johnson, Ray Allen, Iguodala, Quentin Richardson)…. he may have trouble with the smaller, quicker SG’s, but then you put him at SF, move McGuire to the bench, and start Stevenson.
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So as long as we're running with random thoughts
I think the Wiz will end up with the 4th or 5th worst record in the league and will get the 5th or 6th draft pick.
Don’t be surprised if a bigger market team wins the lotto.
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