Don't Worry About Tanking

Despite a generally win-hungry fan-base, I am starting to hear the rumblings that we should start losing and focus on the lottery.  I understand that point of view, but would like to point out that given where we stand it doesn't matter (much).

First, the math.  As we sit with 11 wins it's obvious that we could end the season with the worst record in the league.  It's important to note, though, that the best we could realistically do is 5th worst.  Minnesota is currently 6th worst with 17 wins, and our chance of catching them or any of the teams above them is minute.  (I'd even say we have a slim chance of catching Memphis' 15 wins, but the Grizz can find a way...)

So we have a range of outcomes we could achieve.  I'd generously say they are all equally likely outcomes if we don't deliberately lose games, though that's probably under-rating our fellow bottom-feeders (SAC, LAC, OKC, and in particular MEM - I think we'll need at least 20 wins to be 26th in the league).  If so, you get the following odds (numbers rounded):

Finish 1st 2nd-4th Worst

30th 25% 75% 4th

29th 20% 68% 5th

28th 16% 54% 6th

27th 12% 38% 7th

26th 9% 20% 8th

I've chosen these stats for a reason, related to this year's flat draft class.  We all #1 is the prize, and I'm assessing that 2-4 will be roughly equal and clearly ahead of 5-8 (which depends on Ricky Rubio's decision).  Draft watchers can feel free to argue.

What it shows (at least to me), is a few interesting facts:

- Being worst is a clear but not overwhelming advantage, and it comes not from the the higher likelihood of getting Griffin, but from the certainty of picking no worse than 4th.

- Comparing 4th worst to 2nd worst, there's slightly greater than a 60% chance that it makes no difference at all.

- A point that should be obvious to everyone, but is especially important with this draft class:  No matter how bad we are, the chance of getting a difference maker this year in the draft is relatively small.

So what's the point?  While given this team's situation it's still reasonable to hope for the worst record in the league, we shouldn't be worrying too much about the meager wins we might get.  Given the odds that Sacramento and Clippers are already tanking, we're going to have a tough time being last, and so I'd as soon cheer for the Wiz to win and enjoy it when they actually do.