Tap on Songaila

Over at Wiz Insider, Ivan asked Tap about why Songaila plays so many minutes at center. Here's the answer:

"He's not unpredictable. Most of us as coaches hate unpredictability. A coach would rather have a guy who gives you eight points and six rebounds every night than a guy who gives you 21 and 12 one night and the next two and one and he's out in five minutes because he fouled out...He's too unpredictable."

In general, I know that Songaila has certain strengths. I also agree that it's generally preferable to have guys who are consistent. However, with pretty much everything Tap says, there's the (usually sound) theory behind it and how it actually works (which is poorly). And one thing Songaila does not do is score 8 points and grab 6 rebounds a night.

He's currently averaging 6 points and just under 3 rebounds a game. He has grabbed six or more rebounds just three times this season - Jan. 4, 16 and 21, each time finishing with seven rebounds. By contrast, he has nine games where he's gotten zero rebounds. And since consistency is supposedly his hallmark, let's look at his rebounding numbers for the last 10 games: 0-7-2-7-0-2-0-3-1-5. That doesn't exactly seem like the Wizards know what they're getting night to night.

His scoring is relatively steady, true, but "steady" in this case means "somewhere between 4 and 8 points." His scoring figures for those same 10 games: 2-4-6-4-8-8-4-10-10-8. Over the course of the season so far, he's scored fewer than 8 points in 27 games and reached double figures in scoring in only eight games. McGee, on the other hand, has reached double digit points in seven games and has been held without a rebound in only five games (excluding his DNP-CDs). He has the best rebound rate on the team (excluding Pech, who's only played in 12 games) at 15.8, whereas Songaila's is only 8.5, far and away the worst of any Wizards front court player this season (and even worse than Javaris Crittenton's). And for all of his "rookie mistakes," McGee has a better turnover rate than Songaila, 9.8 vs. 10.6.

What about Songaila's defense? Well, looking at his 82games.com by position page, Songaila is allowing opposing centers to rack up an 18.9 PER, whereas opposing PFs are only managing a PER of 15. While opposing PFs are shooting an eFG% of .474 against him, opposing centers are shooting a staggering .589, despite averaging three fewer shots a game than PFs.

Switching back to offense briefly, Songaila is actually shooting fairly consistently as a PF and center, with an eFG% of .510 as a 4 and .508 as a 5. The former is actually better than opponents, but opposing centers are just burying him. With the injuries in the front court and the fact that Tap is unwilling to play Jamison less than 38 minutes a game (and that Jamison is himself unwilling to play fewer than that), Songaila will continue to see time at center. But let's not pretend that his production there has been even adequate.

[Ed. note: Promoted from the FanPosts.  Like Truth put it in the comments, I appreciate the effort that Songaila brings on a nightly basis.  Especially given the way that this season has gone, you can really admire a guy like D-Song for bustin' it every night on floor.  Every coach needs guys like Darius Songaila on their team.  But I also agree with Jon L that Tapscott isn't doing a good job of differentiating between consistent effort and consistent production and I think that's creating some of the issues that some of us have with how minutes are being allocated at center.  -Jake]