Wizards the Biggest Disappointment in the NBA so far?
by Blatche4MVP on Dec 3, 2009 1:02 PM EST
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On this blog we have all listed the excuses (injuries, new systems, new players, new roles, and tough schedule) nevertheless I think that everyone here believes that this team has had very disappointing start. However I do not think anyone here is ready to hit the panic button or would call us the most disappointing team in the NBA thus far. Yet that is what 3 out of 4 sports illustrated "experts" believe....thoughts?
2. What ranks as the biggest disappointment so far?
Thomsen: I still think the Wizards are going to be strong, but it was asking too much to think the team would synchronize around a new system run by Gilbert Arenas after two years of injuries. They have a lot of talent despite their 5-10 start, but they're going to have to fight hard to make it work.
McCallum: It would be way too easy to say the winless Nets and a little too easy to say the Knicks, who have only three wins. So I'm going to say the whole situation in New Orleans: Byron Scott getting fired; Chris Paul getting hurt; a mediocre record (7-10) keeping away fans in a city where fans are desperately needed to keep the franchise afloat. I really wanted to see this team, which was exciting and on the rise two seasons ago, become a consistent contender in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Perhaps it will still happen under coach Jeff Bower, who put this team together. But for right now only the NFL's Saints are marching in New Orleans.:
Mannix: We all drank the Washington Kool-Aid, didn't we? So much talent, so many weapons ... and absolutely no chemistry. Arenas seems to be the face of the Wizards' problems. His difficulties acclimating to Flip Saunders' system, coupled with his occasional finger-pointing (what is his deal with Caron Butler anyway?), have played a big role in Washington's sluggish start. This was a team that I expected to compete for the No. 3 seed in the conference. Right now, they look like they will be lucky to make the playoffs.
Markazi: The Wizards are the biggest disappointment. This was a team I thought could push for the No. 4 seed in the East if they were fully healthy, which is a monumental "if," as anyone who has followed this team the past couple of years can tell you. They've had to deal with injuries again this season, but even when everyone is available, it doesn't look like this team has all the pieces in place to be a winner. Perhaps I put too much stock in a Butler-Arenas-Antawn Jamison trio that hadn't been on the court together since 2007 and has looked two years older and slower this season. Arenas may become "Hibachi" once again, but as of now he and Saunders aren't on the same page. It's never a good sign when your star player begins to doubt himself and his teammates as Arenas has done this season.
This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.
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Yeah, hard to argue
but I’d emphasize “so far”. I don’t think we win this dubious honor a month from now. I believe we are in the process of turning this thing around.
Wizards Record Comparisons
Wizards record on Nov 25, 2006: 4-9
Wizards record on Jan 30, 2007: 27-17 (best in Eastern Conference)
Wizards record on Nov 24, 2009: 4-9
Wizards record on Jan 30, 2010: ???
In other words, anything can still happen. Although I was a bit pessimistic earlier, it looks like this team is finally starting to put things together and turn this ship around. One bright spot to hang onto: the Wizards are 4-1 this season in months that don’t start with the letter ‘N’.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
27-17 likely would make us 4th or 5th
In the conference at that point this season.
and probably by a lot
I would not surprise me if the magic, Cs, and Cavs all have 12 or less losses at that point. Also, the Hawks could be right there also
Good Points
The conferences are much more evenly matched than they were back then. Still, I wouldn’t mind the 4th or 5th seed after having to endure that 3-9 start. It would mean that we would probably play Atlanta in the 1st round instead of one of the elites. Of course, after that (if we win) we would then need to go up against either the Celtics or the Magic. Hopefully we are playing well enough at that point to stand a fighting chance.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
The Wizard's record is not as bad as these guys seem to think....
Perhaps I put too much stock in a Butler-Arenas-Antawn Jamison trio that hadn’t been on the court together since 2007 and has looked two years older and slower this season.
Yeah – I love the generalizations these National types come up with to justify their positions…. except:
The trio of Arenas-Butler-Jamison have only played 8 games this year – with a record of 5-3 (a 51.5 win pace, which would probably put them right there at 3rd or 4th seed in the East.)
A 5-3 record even though they have injuries to rotation players (Miller, Foye, Oberto, etc..)…
A 5-3 record even though they are still learning Flip’s Offensive system
A 5-3 record even though Flip Saunders is still tinkering with the starting lineup and rotations.
A 5-3 record even though they have yet to become the efficient scoring team everyone knows they will be.
A 5-3 record even though Arenas is still trying to find his way…. after being out for 2 years.
A 5-3 record even though Butler is struggling to adapt to the new Offensive system.
That 5-3 record is more indicative of the current Wizards squad and their potential than looking at the first 8 games – or looking at last year, or the year before, or the year before that…. (all times when one or more of the big-3 were injured for a significant number of games).
it doesn’t look like this team has all the pieces in place to be a winner.
Even with an admittedly small sample size (5-3 record over the last 8 games) – I still cannot believe that ANYONE can honestly say this team cannot win. They may not be a CHAMPIONSHIP caliber team…. but they’re not the NJ Nets, NY Knicks, or Memphis Grizzlies either.
This team WILL WIN it’s share of games this year… and there is still the probability of going on a good run in December and January, when the schedule is in their favor – and the team has had more time to gel….
The Wizards have 13 games in December…. with only 3 back-to-backs and only 3 of their games against teams with winning records: Boston (14-4) Milwaukee (9-8) and Sacramento (9-8)
Then in January, they have 11 of their 16 games at home….with only 4 back-to-back games.
Let’s see what these “experts” have to say on February 1st, when the Wizards are sitting at 27-17 (after going 22-7 in Jan and Feb)….. riding high, confident, and with all their “swag” back…… Maybe we’ll see an SI article about the “Turn Around Team of the Year”.….
but I doubt it.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
by Rook6980 on Dec 3, 2009 2:57 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Love the Optimism
We are going to have to start playing a lot better to be 27-17 again though. Need to cut way down on turnovers, shoot better from 3, and shoot better FT line. But like we said earlier, these are offensive problems, and should be the easiest for the wiz to correct
Predictions
Dec 9 – 4 (16 – 14)
Jan 9 – 7 (25 – 21)
Feb 9 – 3 (34 – 24)
March 8 – 8 (42 – 32)
April 6 – 2 (48 – 34)
How’s that for optimism?
by MR on Dec 3, 2009 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
haha
Just hope you are right, and that 48 wins is enough to secure the 4th seed. I think the wiz need home court for at least one series. But we need to be at least the 5th seed because I really dont want to have to play the cavs, Cs, or magic in the first round.
I think for one of those team, beating two would be really hard, but having to play all three would be nearly impossible.
Wow, winning 4 out of 5 and we are already back talking about 50 wins and the playoffs!!
50 wins?
Don’t be crazy. I said 48.
That’s down from my prediction of 49 in the preseason.
by MR on Dec 3, 2009 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
I predicted 50 wins
And I still think they will get there…..
1. Incredibly easy schedule in December and January
2. Return of Miller
3. Improved team defense
4. Improvement of Blatche, Young
5. Gilbert WILL get better
6. I’m convinced that Butler’s troubles were injury related (ankle) and he’s healthy now.
7. Grunfeld will make a HUGE move at the Trade Deadline…… **
- That last one is a wish
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
I hate to come back on here afters the raptors loss
but those are the type of games we have to win to get to 50. On the bright side I think this team playing well enough that Ernie will strongly consider making your wish a reality.
My optimism comes from facts
Fact # 1 – The Wizard’s poor record so far is a direct result of missing Antawn Jamison for the first 9 games… in those 9 games, the Wiz went 2-7
Fact #2 – The Wizards have played one of the hardest schedules in the League so far. 9 road games. 5 back-to-backs. Eleven teams with winning records, including two games against Cleveland (13-5), two against Miami (10-7), and one each against Dallas (14-5), Atlanta (13-5) …
Fact #3 – The Wizards have a patsy schedule for December and January (already noted above).
Fact #4 – Even though Miller and Foye are injured (or have been injured a lot) – the Wizard’s young players have stepped up. Nick Young, after languishing on the bench, has finally found his ticket to playing time = DEFENSE. McGee has stopped jumping into the rafters after every pump fake, and has started playing position defense… And Andray Blatche has become “Mr. Consistent” – - probably, if not THE best, one of the best 6th men in the entire League.
Fact #5 – Flip Saunders is a huge improvement over previous Head Coaches as far as in-game X’s and O’s Coaching goes. He actually draws up plays that work. He’s great at situational substitutions (Offensive – Defensive substitution). He leaves the right players in the game at the right time. (Haywood at the end of games… Young early in games… etc..). He calls time outs at the appropriate times. He takes advantage of mis-matches. He takes advantage of a player with a hot hand. He doesn’t “react” to what the other Coach does (cough, Smallball, cough) , but rather puts the team in a position to succeed.
I think there’s plenty of room for optimism. EVEN if the Wiz lay an occasional egg (OKC, Charlotte), they’re learning how to win…
Yeah, they were 2-7 at one point…. and everyone, National press, other team’s fans, SI, ESPN, TNT, ABC, CBS, XYZ, fair-weather Wiz fans, etc… They all pointed to the record and said “see, that core of Arenas, Butler and Jamison just can’t get it done”… “See, I told you so”… without looking at the reasons… not taking the time to actually figure out why they weren’t playing well… probably not even watching the games….
It’s just gonna be so nice when those people have to eat their words.
.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
you have me even more fired up
I will feel even better once (not if) we are above .500…
Just for the sake of argument
we did see Boykins, Arenas,Stevenson on the floor last night in the 4th, with Haywood languishing on the bench. If that isn’t “smallball” I don’t know what is.
I think we make the playoffs on the basis that the 76ers are worse than expected, as are the Raps, and I think Milwaukee is going to fade due to depth issues.
Lets say 6th seed when all is said and done.
Its always Roger Mason (Jr.) time!
I don't think Miami is very good, so it's entirely possible we jump to fifth
But there are a lot of things to work out before we can talk about this.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Its all speculative
I wouldn’t want to play Miami b/c of Wade and the refs. The one thing that I still think will make or break this season is injuries either to us or other teams. You never wish injuries on an opponent, but it would be interesting to see how Miami would perform without Beasley or Haslem. I also think we saw how affected Cleveland was by the loss of Varejao. If we manage to keep Gil on two legs, and only lose Caron for a few games due his yearly tweak, I think we will be in good shape.
Its always Roger Mason (Jr.) time!
Haywood was on the bench
With 6 ft 11 inch Andray Blatche playing Center (not 6’8" Darius Songaila) – and 6’9" Antawn Jamison playing his normal PF spot… 6’5" Stevenson was playing the SF spot (in place of the normal 6’6" Butler)….
NO – I wouldn’t call that “Smallball” – at least, not the Smallball that the previous Coaching regime used to force us to watch.
Blatche was playing his normal early 4th quarter stint, but was playing well… so Flip left him in until about 3 minutes left in the game – and Flip put Haywood back in. Haywood played a total of 35 minutes – I’d hardly call that “languishing on the bench”…
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
I disagree
how many times has Stevenson been asked to guard SF this year with the exception of LeBron? My point was that this was the same type of gimmicky lineup that EJ used to use and you killed him on it. I DeShawn Stevenson, playing SF (which he does rarely) has terrible numbers across the board at the position.
If the plus to Flip Saunders is to have players know their roles/sub pattern, then I think I that I have the right to question that particular substitution pattern.
So yes, I do believe that playing those particular three guys at one, along with Jamison and Blatche could be considered small ball. Or at least finesse ball.
Its always Roger Mason (Jr.) time!
And you are conveniently subtracting an inch here and there to make your point
Boykins was on the floor with Arenas and Stevenson. Last time I looked he was 5’5.
Butler, to all attributable sources is 6’7, not 6’6
http://www.nba.com/wizards/playerfile/caron_butler.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/butleca01.html
Songalia is listed at 6’9
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/songada01.html
http://www.nba.com/playerfile/darius_songaila/index.html?nav=page
Its always Roger Mason (Jr.) time!
gosh, and I'm sorry that I'm hot under the collar
but you’ve done this before and it bugs me…
http://www.bulletsforever.com/2009/10/6/1072785/nick-young-had-an-awesome-camp-now#22371341
your statistical analysis is always spot on when it come to objective assessments, but it seems to depart when you don’t agree with someone else.
Its always Roger Mason (Jr.) time!
Sorry about the missing inch…. I was going from memory , and I didn’t check sources before I posted….
The whole point I was trying to make was that Eddie Jordan used to use an unathletic, 6’9" Darius Songaila at Center (who couldn’t jump over a telephone book) …. and before him, he used 6’9" Michael Ruffin, and even sometimes 6’9" Antawn Jamison….
And actually, let’s be completely up front: I shorted Songaila by 1/2 inch, as he was measured at 6’9.5" in shoes….
And Butler is actually 6’6.5" in shoes….
Is that accurate enough for you?
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Thanks
I’ll close off the argument here, but I’ll stand by the fact the the lineup the Flip was playing is one of the smallest permutations he could have put out there. Why not McGuire over Stevenson? Or Oberto? Why have a defensive sieve (Arenas), and Boykins out there with our smallest possible option at shooting guarding. I didn’t like it, and it reminded me of “Songalia at C,” for better or for worse.
Its always Roger Mason (Jr.) time!
Please Remember
We won the game. Isn’t that what matters? I don’t think Flip has a fetish for small lineups, he was just trying something to see if it worked, and for the most part it did. DeShawn was +1 during his 8 minutes, and was +4 when Gil substituted for Nick Young early in the 4th. Meanwhile, Brendan got a much needed rest, and was back on the floor for the final stretch. If that lineup produced a -4 and cost us the game, I could see your criticism as valid. But unlike Eddie, Flip sticks to what works and changes things frequently when it doesn’t. That’s what makes a good, if not great coach.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Yeah
I think the key is that Eddie would close games with tiny-ball, which made no sense. Flip, on the other hand, uses it in a stretch, like any smart coach does, but wouldn’t dare close with it.
Although he did keep Andray Blatche in and Haywood out for a while…
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
and blatche had a big 4th
and then haywood came in and played great. Blatche did have 6 points in the 4th, and was playing hard. Have no problem playing blatche that long. If it were not for how well Jaminson and Haywood are playing, Blatche would be playing more than 20 minutes a night anyways.
Yeah - Flip will definately "ride his best horses"
He’s shown this year that he will go to a player over and over again on Offense, until the opponent stops him… he’ll use the same play over and over… he sticks with the same line up if it’s working.. and changes quickly if it’s not.
The reason Blatche was playing so long in the 4th is because the Wizards, and Blatche in particular, were playing well. He’s done the same thing with Boykins (in for Arenas)… and with Miller (before he was hurt)…
That may be one of the reasons he had to leave Detroit…. veterans don’t like sitting on the bench for extended periods… they want to play.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
I am going to place my my faith
in this mythical swag that Rook has mentioned numerous times before. Well at least for another month or two.
once I see Gil
with his swag back, I will be a lot more confident
I also
think a lot of these articles are fed by the “week that was,” with the honeydew tossin, beefin, and whatnot. I love Gilbert and I think he will be back to are 90% sooner rather than later, but the stuff about Caron was unnecessary to voice to the media. I think if there were less “quotes,” we would be getting less attention.
Its always Roger Mason (Jr.) time!
Thanks for the context and the facts
Because facts are stubborn things. This 4-1 stretch has been pretty good (except for that effort against Charlotte). And you can see thing starting to come together.
"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck
by George Templeton on Dec 4, 2009 11:04 AM EST up reply actions
i was feeling the way these guys were
last week when they wrote this, but it’s too early to call the team a disappointment.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Dec 3, 2009 3:48 PM EST reply actions
nooo
the spurs are the biggest disappointment so far
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