4th Quarter Wiz Lineup Proposal
by Dr Spgs on Dec 11, 2009 10:30 AM EST
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PrintEditor's Note: From the FanPosts. Interesting thoughts from a newcomer. Welcome to the community, Dr. Spgs! -Mike
I've been a big reader and fan of this website for a while. Props to Jake and Prada (and everyone else associated with this site) for your hard work. I vastly prefer the comments posted here to WaPo Wiz Insider b/c people understand how to respectfully argue points without posts becoming personalized and inappropriate. Allow me to join the fray now with a suggestion about who should be on the floor in the 4th quarter for the Wizards.
C - Haywood
PF - Blatche
SF - Jamison
SG - Butler *
PG - Arenas
I discuss this lineup after the jump below...
After watching last night's game against the Celtics, I believe that this team needs Blatche on the floor at the end of games... but at the 4, not the 5. With his long arms and ability to stretch the floor, Blatche improves our rebounding and offensive capabilities at the end of the game. But it is essential to have Haywood on the floor manning the paint because of the defensive presence he brings. Furthermore, Blatche seems more comfortable at the 4 instead of the 5. And I've always liked having Haywood and Blatche on the floor together at the same time. They play well together.
As for the rest of the lineup, Jamison is much more valuable at the 3, rather than the 4. Yes, he is a good rebounder, but he plays "soft", e.g. using finesse to get his boards and points. Putting him at the 3 allows him to utilize his size advantage in matchups. More importantly, with that size advantage, it encourages him to exploit it in the paint, rather than on the baseline. I don't know about anyone else, but I cringe everytime he jacks a 3 pointer up. It is such a low percentage shot (especially for him), takes the team out of its offensive flow, and puts them at a disadvantage for defending fastbreaks on the other end. I cannot understand how a smart player such as Jamison can be so dumb in this one component of the game.
I asterisked Butler's name at SG, because I think this is the most flexible part of the lineup. I would suggest continuing to play him in the clutch, but keeping someone else as an option should he continue to struggle. Miller might be an option here when he returns (he really needs to be on the floor when he's healthy). While Butler is slower than many 2's, like Jamison he might be able to utilize his size advantage in matchups. It also might help him - finally - be encouraged to catch and shoot when he gets the ball on the perimeter.
Last, but not least, Arenas. There have been a lot of doubts and questions about him. I'm actually optimistic. I don't know if he can ever become the player he once was, but I think he is really getting his game back. He's a little slower than before, and doesn't have the same hops... but, he's still got a wicked crossover, drives to the hole with the best of them and is getting back his 3-point shot (now maybe he can work on the free throws). I don't know about you, but that's a guy I want on the floor at the end of the game. Yes, he is a shoot-first PG, but he's shown me enough in the assist dept. to make me believe that he will be able to find his teammates when he needs to.
People may wonder about where Boykins fits in. I'm glad we signed him, and he has definitely helped us eke out a couple of wins thus far. In my mind, he definitely has a place on this team. But should he be on the floor in the pivotal moments? I don't think so. On the defensive end, his size makes him a liability. The longer he has played for us, the more other teams have remembered how to play against him. Rondo just killed him when they were matched up. I agree with others that his speed and smarts for the game are major assets that we need. But it feels like the rest of the team just stands around watching him dribble at times. It seems like the team is often out of flow when he is in there. So for that reason, I would suggest playing him for stretches in the 2nd quarter and end of 3rd/beg. of 4th quarters, but keep him out for the stretch runs.
Well, those are my thoughts about a consistent 4th quarter lineup for the Wizards. Looking forward to a great discussion.
This represents the view of the user who wrote the FanPost, and not the entire Bullets Forever community. We're a place of many opinions, not just one.
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Good Post
You’ll get a lot of flack for suggesting that Twan play the 3 and Butler the 2, but I honestly don’t think it hurts the Wizards defensively as much as everyone says it does. In fact, I think any loss from those two positions is made up by having both Haywood and Blatche together inside to protect the paint. Offensively, it opens up a lot more oppurtunites, as almost every player in that lineup can both shoot the long jumper and post up. Very good suggestions, all in all.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
Agreed
And I said so during last night’s game comments….
The 4th quarter is when most teams play their starters…. they are, after all, the best players on the team – that’s why they’re the starters…
Who are the Wizard’s 5 best players?
Arenas, Butler, Jamison, Blatche, Haywood (Mike Miller comes in 6th, but extremely close)
AND I also agree that although there may a defensive match up problem or two against some teams – those same match-ups become advantages on the Offensive side of the ball.
For instance: Last night against Boston… With their starting line up:
Rondo vs. Arenas
Ray Allen vs. Butler
Pierce vs. Jamison (I cringe to think how Jamison could defend Pierce, then I remember that Jamison would kill Pierce in the Post)
Garnett vs Blatche
Perkins vs Haywood
The match-ups are, at least Defensively, not that bad. Like I said, Pierce against Antawn’s defense would be difficult – but Offensively Jamison would have the advantage… and Butler would have the advantage over Ray Allen.
Blatche matches up against KG better than Jamison does… Butler against Ray Allen is better defensively than Young or Foye.
Plus…. as you said – any mistakes on the perimeter that leads to a drive to the basket – and you have Blatche AND Haywood there to help.
How about the next opponent – Indiana?
SF Danny Granger vs Jamison – this might be a problem on the D side… but advantage to Jamison in the low post Offensively
SG Dahntay Jones vs Butler – I don’t see any problems with Butler guarding Jones (or Brandon Rush, or Mike Dunleavy)
PF Troy Murphy vs Blatche – two guys that like to shoot from outside.
PG T.J. Ford vs Arenas – both are very quick
C Roy Hibbert vs Haywood – advantage Haywood (but Hibbert is getting better and better).
Again – Offensively, I think the Wizards have the advantage with this big line up – not to mention being able to control the boards with 7-ft, 6’11" and 6’9" across the front line (and Butler being an excellent rebounder as well)….
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Winning or Losing
I pretty much agree with everything that’s being said here, but I wonder if/how you would tweak the lineup if going into the 4th quarter the Wiz were:
A. Winning by 10.
B. Tied.
C. Losing by 10.
I’m sure there are a bunch of other factors like how we were matching up vs. a particular team during the first 3 quarters but let’s just say on average, what would you do facing the above scenarios.
Also, if these are your 5 best players, why wouldn’t they start the 1st quarter too?
Obviously I’m talking about starters – and starters minutes.
So as a general rule – and based on Flip’s current rotations – the best players all will play about 32-35 minutes – all play the start of the game (hence the moniker: starters) – generally come out at the end of the 1st quarter and are back in at the end of the 2nd…. They then again start the 3rd – rest mid at the end of the third – and come in for the finish of the game.
Winning by 10 – and everything is going well – there’s no reason to change the rotation
Tied and everything going well – no change
Tied – but needing scoring – put in guys like Miller, Young or Foye
Tied – but needing defense – Take out Jamison, Move Butler to PF, and bring in Foye
Down by 10 – bring in whatever player you think might help cut the defecit.
Right now, Flip is not playing his “best” players as his starters… Blatche has proven he belongs in the starting lineup – based on his production; consistent energy level; defensive presence; and other factors (50% FG%, 78% from the FT line, 18.01 PER, and a 54% TSP)…..
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Granger
is out, much to my Fantasy team’s chagrin :P
by Manimal Smith on Dec 11, 2009 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
Though
I see that that may not be important given what you were trying to say.
by Manimal Smith on Dec 11, 2009 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
AJ is so bad defensively at the 4 that he can’t possibly be any worse at the 3. And what we give up in perimeter penetration with AJ and CB as the wing defenders, we would make up with length and athleticism at the 4 (AB) and 5 (BTH). I like that lineup suggestion.
Plus I’m tired of seeing Boykins pat the rock for the first 14 seconds of the shot clock…
It's not that Jamison can't play the three
it’s that the story goes that since Golden State he’s been opposed to doing it. I’ve always felt he’d make a better swingman, but he’s created so many matchup problems in the past coaches never bothered to move him down a slot.
Like it
My only reservation is haywood shooting foul shots at the end of close games.
by BayAreaBullet on Dec 11, 2009 12:12 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Be more concerned about Arenas
He’s clearly developed a mental block — the more important the free throws, the less likely he is to hit them. There’s really no way to get a player out of that, because he can go practice and hit 48-50 and it won’t make a lick of difference. The only thing you can do is keep letting him miss until he gets over it, or take him out at crunch time.
i don't like it in practice
if you want to play blatche down the stretch, you’ll have to sit either AJ or BTH, IMO. and CB sucks at the 2. (of course he’s stinking it up at the 3 now too)
flip is going to have to make some choices!
regardless, welcome to the site.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Dec 11, 2009 12:21 PM EST reply actions
oh
and ideally, our $10 million + guys, AJ and CB, would visibly outplay Blatche. if not, either blatche is an all-star caliber player or we’re not getting the production we signed up for out of AJ and CB.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Dec 11, 2009 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
A Mixture of Both
Blatche is playing very well, but not quite All-Star caliber. However, both AJ and CB are underperforming.
"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier
I think its a little soon
to say Blatche and all-star in the same breath. Maybe after a couple years of consistent play… but definitely not after only a couple of months.
And while Caron is definitely slumping, Jamison hasn’t missed a step: same great offensive production, same rebounding, same bad D. And I think that’s where Blatche is really making his mark, because when he comes in, the defensive improvement is noticeable, but there’s not that much of a dropoff in either offensive production or rebounding…
And to top it off, Blatche gets his points within the flow of the offense, instead of grinding the offense to a stop (like CB) or breaking plays with badly timed 3’s (AJ).
Well if Jamison is performing at All-Star levels – then Blatche is not too far behind:
Per 48 minute production
Jamison 25.7 points, 11.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.54 steals, .59 blocks,, 19.14 PER
Blatche 21.2 points, 10.6 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.96 steals, 2.35 blocks,, 18.01 PER
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Blatche isn't playing all-star level but he is playing well
and providing a skill(defense) which is non-existent from the current starter(AJ).
by BayAreaBullet on Dec 11, 2009 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
Blatche has been better
It’s too soon to say Blatche has surpassed Jamison, but Blatche has more than made up for the offensive difference with his defense so far this season. They’re not very far apart on offense, while Blatche is a respectable defender while Jamison is atrocious.
Given their opposite career trajectories, Blatche should be in the starting lineup. Not saying Jamison can’t be, but as an A vs B decision, it has to be Blatche.
ball-handling!
gilbert has something odd going on with his handle – he looks really clumsy with the ball at times. and caron should never, ever dribble when being closely guarded.
that is my only concern with this line-up. rondo hounded gil late in the 4th, and every possession it seemed like he was on the verge of turning to ball over.
not sure what the other options are though – i mean, gilbert is the starting PG.
otherwise, i am all for blatche getting crunch time minutes.
"how ironic - you came here with a mouse in a bottle, now YOU are the mouse in the bottle" - B.M. Smith
by little stevie colter on Dec 11, 2009 1:05 PM EST reply actions
Agreed
This is the big fat flaw in this idea. The other teams would press and trap our backcourt and cause turnovers.
Maybe it could work later this year once Arenas shakes off the rust and remembers how to dribble again, but for now, it’s a non-starter.
I say play Blatche ahead of Butler except when the team has a scoring swing man. If Butler must be on the court for defensive reasons, then play Blatche ahead of Jamison and sub Jamison in for Haywood on offensive possessions.
Improvement
This line-up would be an improvement over the current starting 5. Flip seems to be running out of options.
How long should Young get to perform well? How long should the next 2 get to perform?
No Solid Shooting Guard play
has been whats killing us.
We’re playing with young/foye/stevenson right now, and not one of them are sure about themselves.
And I don’t see caron being effective at that position. He isn’t a good catching shooter. I believe someone broke his stats down last year when he was at the 2 and they were worse than his stats at the 3.
It does have an impact one the team dynamic
Starting someone like Stevenson indicates we’re leaning more toward defense. Young = a focus on scoring. And just about everyone here can agree that when Miller was starting, the ball was moving around better.
When we stop playing Musical Chairs with this position (KIM, traditionally the bulk of backcourt is supposed to come from here) we’ll come along way toward being more consistent.
true
Personally, I like Young starting. He is the only one with a fragile psyche. Foye and Stevenson have proven they can be just as productive (can’t BELIEVE I just said Stevenson and productive in the same sentence) when coming off the bench. But Young needs to get involved in the game early to be a real factor. And I think he’s shown (for the most art) that he is a viable option as a starter.
I tend to not include Miller in the talk of SG. I know he was a huge part of the offense when he was in, but I lie him better at SF. Hell, right now, I like him better than Butler at SF.
You're right about Stevenson...
can’t BELIEVE I just said Stevenson and productive in the same sentence
In fact, Stevenson is actually MORE productive the less he plays (after all, -5 is higher than -10).
I'm glad you brought up Foye
I am just catching up with these posts now and I would hope Flip would be willing to go to a Foye-Miller backcourt (when Miller comes back) in the 4th quarter if both Butler and Arenas are struggling.
"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck
by George Templeton on Dec 14, 2009 9:56 AM EST up reply actions
I definitely think
we need Blatche getting more time and I really like it when Haywood and AB play together. Flip will need to balance his rotations well as foul trouble could cripple these 2 quick.
I would rather see them out there together than worry about the fouls though.
Flip has mentioned wanting to play those 5 together
Caron may be more apt at the two with his lower weight level. When he has used it he looks more explosive this year. Also since he’s fallen in love with his jumper it should be theoretically easier to get his shot off against 2 than 3s.
Jamison is a nightmare defensively where ever he plays but he has more mismatches on offense at the 3. Hopefully looking up and seeing smaller 3s guarding him will encourage him to attack the hoop.
Blatche and Haywood inside is better defensively in every way. Dray puts another good passer on the floor. No question we should be able to rebound with anyone.
It come down to GIl. I feel like he has been making baby steps and putting the tempo back in his game is going to really help him. He is our only ball handler in that lineup, but I don’t want the ball in anyone else’s hands at the end of the game.
I am definitely not opposed to seeing more of this lineup.
Boykins, Butler, Jamison, Blatche and Haywood
Is a lineup I’d like to see at times. Boykins ball-handling and ability to break a press single-handedly will make up for the general lack of ball handling at all other positions.
I’m not saying this should be crunch time lineup, just that it’s a lineup worth exploring when Arenas is resting.
Wow, this is cool! This post made the "big board"!
Thanks for the warm welcome. I’m pumped to see all the good discussion of these ideas. Maybe we’re on to something! I’m trying to hold on to hope this season. Even thought they can be maddening at times, the Wiz are such an interesting group of players (in more ways than one). Seems like the biggest issues people have is about what to do at the 2. Miller is so versatile, it will be great when he comes back. But until then, if Butler continues to under-perform (or needs to stay at the 3 when he’s in), the question seems to be benefit/cost ratio for the other shooting guards (Foye, Stevenson, Young). I was a big Young hater for a while, but he showed me something on D for a few of those games. If he could be more consistent – sigh – maybe he’s the answer. I like Foye’s upside. Stevenson is proven on D, but I think he’s too one-dimensional. I would suggest that Flip keep experimenting in the 2nd quarter, but try to go with a more established lineup in the 4th, so that people know their roles in crunch time. We’re a quarter of the way into the season.
Doctor?
And may I ask what kind of doctor are you? Some of the Wiz need a shrink and some need an medical expert in diagnosis and therapy. The blogosphere may be ready to sponsor you to the new owners! The current medical staff is woeful.
Shrink 'em up!
Your post cracks me up. Would you believe it – I actually am a shrink. Can’t help with the medical piece, but boy would I love to assist with the psychological part. Kind of a helpless feeling seeing such a team need for mental health services and being on the outside. Actually, I thought it was really interesting when the team participated with a stage hypnotist during training camp. Most people associate hypnosis with entertainment, but it is actually professionally and ethically used for clinical purposes as well, such as with sports performance enhancement. Free throws, anyone?
Replace Butler with a healthy Miller and you’d have my ideal 4th quarter lineup. Miller can spread the floor better than Butler and can relieve Gilbert occasionally with his ball handling. Either way, this lineup is tall and will get a ton of rebounds.
by Fundefined on Dec 11, 2009 6:11 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Need role players
Too many high usage rate players in this lineup. That’s been a huge problem all year, too much “scorer’s mentality.” We’ve been settling for halfway decent shots instead of being patient and finding a truly good look.
Here’s a lineup I would like to see a lot more of: Gilbert, Caron, Antawn, Blatche, Oberto. Oberto’s unselfishness is essential. Also important is Andray’s shot blocking and outside shooting. His outside shooting allows Gil, Caron, and Antawn to all do their thing, especially while moving towards the basket. Andray may also be useful in helping to bring the ball up the court, as long as he is defended by a big man.
In general, whenever Gilbert and Antawn are on the floor together, I think we also need to have a low usage rate facilitator like Oberto or Miller on the court. It puzzles me why Oberto’s minutes all disappeared as soon as Antawn returned to the lineup, especially with Miller out with injuries. DeShawn or Dominic could also help make Gilbert and Antawn better, if they could just find their game.
Oberto can't stay on the floor because he can't stop fouling.
Also I realize he is an adept passer but he doesn’t provide more offensively than Haywood and is a major step down defensively. It’s not like Haywood is high usage or anything. Oberto’s minutes dropped because he can only play the center now(remember he was benched for Blatche even before AJ came back and looks like he lacks the mobility to play the 4 anymore) and he is just a walking foul. He should stay on the bench unless we’re playing Dwight Howard, Shaq, or TD. If you want get some more unselfishness maybe replace Caron with Miller. It just seems that lineup lacks ball handling, playmaking and defense.
by BayAreaBullet on Dec 12, 2009 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
Looking for 10 or so minutes from Oberto, not 20+
So the fouling should be less of a problem. Oberto might be passing up a lot of open shots, but at least he’s making them when he takes them— that means he’s playing a lot better than our two other healthy low usage rate players, Dominic and DeShawn, unfortunately. Obviously, I’d love to have Mike Miller back— I think he should definitely start and get starters minutes— but while Miller is hurt, we need to try to replace his unselfishness and ball movement. Oberto seems to be the best bet for now. Even if Oberto’s presence on the court allows the opponent to make a run, it might be worthwhile if it helps our big three get into a better groove.
Oberto rides the pine for a reason
and the celtics game showed even 10 minutes for Oberto is a problem for Oberto and his fouls.
by BayAreaBullet on Dec 13, 2009 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
If we're judging by the Boston game
we should just buy him out now. He’s useless. On the other hand, if you think the rest of his career has some predictive value, he should get more playing time. Because in the past, he has shown skills that this team desperately needs.
In the past when he was younger
Maybe we should have signed Rasheed Wallace based on his past or maybe even Charles Oakley? He’s not useless but he was a fringe player who was a very slim margin away from being a 10-12th guy on the roster. He’s probably played more basketball games than most of the players in the league and isn’t the same guy he was. I like him on the team in his current role where he comes in when we need fouls or another body.
by BayAreaBullet on Dec 14, 2009 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
He has posted a positive +/- so far this year
And he has done so without the need to touch the ball or to have plays run for him. That’s incredibly valuable for a team that is having trouble getting on track. It makes the game simpler, not having to look for that last teammate. The defense has to worry about him because he’s running around, setting picks, and making back door cuts, but our guys don’t have to make much of an effort to keep track of what he’s doing.
Great post
I say there’s a HUGE asterisk next to Butler’s name. He hasn’t impressed me much. I know this is going to offend some people, but in my anger during one of the recent games, I complained to my buddy after another Butler bonehead play (he sucks on D too – he’s really bad), I said “He sucks! I’d bench him then trade him.”
I 100% agree about Boykins, Blatche, and Gil.
My swag was phenomenal.
Im with u on Butler
Bench Butler he is the problem always playing one on one and never passing the ball I thought J.Howard was gone…lol yea traded Butler he dont even go hard to the hole….I scream at him or to the tv pass the ball play some D..just watch every time he plays a real good SF he passes the ball then…..and I dont agree with Miller comes in 6th on the wizards he is better then Butler any day n my book….trade Butler and Twan for some hungry young bucks…..POST PLAYERS>>>>>DUNKERS rip the rim down type…..Im OUT>
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