I’ve been waiting to read some analysis on this all day, but I’m not sure we have all the information we need to make a judgment.

For starters, I’m not sure I agree that there is any discernible trend between the above group 1 and group 2. There are overpaid guys in both categories.

I think the real question lies in whether Foye lies in the Wizards long term plans. I think he did at the time of the trade and if he continues to play like a very, very, very ideal backcourt mate for Gilbert Arenas I’m thinking that Grunfeld will want to keep Foye in Washington for the long run for sure.

Now where I think there may be some difference of opinion is that committing money to Foye now leaves the Wizards with less cap flexibility next year. I think Grunfeld may be willing to pay Foye more down the road to keep the flexibility this coming offseason to resign BTH/MM. Foye will most certainly re-up for more than the $5.5M he’s on the books for next year, and that’s cap room he needs to re-sign the others. Once BTH/MM are locked up, he can go over the cap to take care of Foye.

Foye will not come cheap. You mentioned Marvin Williams as a comparison and Foye is a much better player than Williams with much better statistics across the board. I think it will take $7.5M/year to sign Foye.

That’s my conspiracy theory, but an interesting move by Grunfeld nonetheless.

I might add that I think Randy Foye is a heck of a player who is only going to get better, but he’s also an extremely classy, unselfish, team-first player and the kind of person I want to root for.

If you don’t include the guys who are not signed at the end of their rookie contract.

By not extending a player early, you get an an option to see him play over the next year (as well as how the rest of the team, and the rest of the league develop), and then make your decision. That option has a value, and it also has a cost. Without examining the value of that option you can’t assess the strategy.

The difference (by and large) between group 1 and group 2 is that there are more “sure-things” on the list – players for whom the “option” has less value. There are, of course, a few mistakes in Group 1, and there are some sure things in Group 2 where a deal just didn’t get done.

I like Randy, but he’s played 3 games for us and we’re deep at the 2. I think it’s reasonable to see how it plays out.

As RamV said, Randy Foye has only played 3 games with us… AND this is a vastly different economy.

You also have to factor in that the cap is going to go down next year, and Foye plays a position (SG primarily) where there is no shortage of decent players.

I think when the smoke clears, if Foye has a productive year on a serious playoff team, he gets a deal in the 5 year 35-40 million range. That’s about what the Rockets paid Trevor Ariza to step in and replace McGrady.

Your analysis of salaries is good and you represent and informed point of view. Here are a few other considerations.

1. Nick Young was just signed to an extension. While he does not have the overall game of Foye he may be a late bloomer (see Andray Blatche?). Also if you sign Foye now you automatically tell Nick he is not going to be a starter at the 2 position and not only demotivate him, you reduce his potential trade value. His extension at a lower rate makes him more tradeable for a veteran big at the trade deadline this year.

2. Mike Miller can play the 2. While he does not have Foye’s floor game he is a great rebounder, passes well and creates match up problems for other gaurds because of hieght. We may be in a situation to choose between Foye and Miller so we need to see how both of their contributions play out.

3. Javaris is young and could be the back up point gaurd at a lower value.

4. The final point is this. While signing Foye may make sense is essentially is reducing Ernie options ( you know he likes those) and could send a wrong message to the team. It says Randy is our guy after only 3 games.

5. Ernie and Flip needs to see how this thing plays out which is going to take at least until this years trade deadline

…is that by and large, the guys in Group 1 are better and thus got extended earlier. I’m guessing you have half a dozen all-star games in the first group, and maybe just one in the second.

Even with that said, one can make individual comparisons that make group 1 look unflattering: Josh Howard @ $10M per, or Villanueva for $8M? Bogut @ $12M per or Biedrins @ $9M? Either way, I don’t see a consistent pattern between the two groups.

Overall, I agree with nate and hibachi. I just can’t see any team plunking down huge money for Foye this summer given who else will be on the market and what budgets are likely to be. And if they do, then he’ll have done something this spring (a la Ben Gordon and Hedo) that will have established that value. So that’s at least a little exciting.

on what foye was asking. which we don’t know.

EG might have to make some tough decisions in the offseason.

You guys are focusing way to much on the money at this time. Basically the only untouchable gaurd on the roster is Gil.

So you have to sort through Foye, Miller, Criteron, Stevenson and Young ( assuming Mike James is out). Performance, injuries, fit with other personnel – all of these issues need to be ironed out this year before commtiments at the gaurd postion should be made.

I’m completely lost on how they work, but I wonder how all this player movement is affected by sign and trade possibilities. Considering a situation like Toronto where it has been mentioned that Bryan Colangelo may look to sign and trade Bosh this summer, does a situation like ours where we have multiple players who are appealing provide an avenue to acquire a big time free agent?

I’m not specifically suggesting Bosh, but there are guys like him or a Rudy Gay that seem to want out of town. I think back to the complicated deal this summer where Turkgolu, Marion, Stackhouse, etc. were traded. Yes, Toronto had room, but Dallas didn’t have cap space. Could our expiring contracts for quality players help facilitate some deal in the summer frenzy?

Just asking cause I’m completely confused. And this might factor into Ernie’s thinking.

I don’t know what you are trying to prove but the difference between Group 1 and Group 2 is less than $200K. Grp 1 per year 9.68 Group 2 $9.8.

Also, why Kendrick Perkins he didn’t even get the Mid Level Exception and for good reason. He’s no star. He was rewarded for hard work. If you take him out Grp 1 goes to 10M and Grp 2 is 9.8.

Also, you do realize that Josh Smith was a restricted free agent and signed an offer sheet with Memphis. It is my understanding that he played for his rookie scale the year he signed his offer sheet and his new salary didn’t kicked in until the following year. So he took it in the shorts. He would have been better off playing out his option and being an unrestricted free agent, when he might have gotten a max or almost max contract.

Also, why wasn’t Ben Gordon on the list. He lost millions by not signing with Chicago a $55-58M extension when it was offered, at least those were the rumors. And I think, if you tried you could find more “Ben Gordon’s” that lost money by not signing early.

Why did you bother to include David Lee at 1 yr $8M. That doesn’t make much sense either. The Knicks basically rewarded him for performance, and didn’t give him and didn’t give him a long term contract.

I really think if your tried you could find all kinds of guys who were way overpaid for their performance by signing early – Mike Dunleavy, Troy Murphy and AK47 just to name a few.

Like I said, Math just isn’t your strong suit!!!!!!!!!!!!!