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The bottom line with the Wizards? The stars aren't performing

Normally, I'm all for over-analysis.  And I still am, even though it can be time-consuming and nerve-racking when it comes to our Wizards.  Clearly, the team's 5-10 November has a lot to do with complicated explanations that have no easy answers. 

But the truth is, for all of the Wizards' supposed problems, there are only two parts that really aren't working.  Antawn Jamison has come back and played even better than usual in his first few games (the Charlotte game notwithstanding).  When healthy, Mike Miller has been excellent.  Brendan Haywood is having another outstanding year, typified by his outstanding offensive board work (he's grabbing almost 15% of all available offensive rebounds this year).  Randy Foye was good early and Nick Young has been good lately.  Fabricio Oberto has been himself.  Andray Blatche continues to perform solidly (give him more minutes!).  JaVale McGee has flashed nice upside, and Earl Boykins has been a revelation.  The defense is currently 20th in the league, which isn't great, but at least is respectable. 

All those parts are working fine.  The problem is that the two most important parts are underperforming, significantly.  Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler have each been a shell of themselves all month, and that's all you need to know about the Wizards this season.  It's like saying all parts of your car are working fine ... except the engine and the brakes.  If your engine and your brakes aren't working, chances are your car is screwed.  If your two best players aren't performing, then you're toast as a basketball team.

Star-divide

The drop-off this month for Arenas and Butler has been equally steep.  Arenas has gone from being a superstar to being an average player, while Butler has gone from being a secondary star to a below-average performer.  Each has their excuses - Arenas is coming back from two years off and learning how to quarterback an exceedingly complicated system, while Butler is at least putting in more effort on defense - but each needs to step it up.  

Just how bad has it been for each?  Here are tables illustrating how far off both guys have been from their career averages in several key categories.

Stat Arenas this year Arenas career Difference
Pts/36 20.2 21.9 -1.7
FG% 39.2% 42.6% -3.4%
3PT% 33.3% 35.7% -2.4%
FT% 73% 80.6% -7.6%
TS% 49.2% 55.4% -6.2%
eFG% 43.5% 48.6% -5.1%
PER 15.6 20.6 -5
TO% 15.9% 14% -1.9%
ORtg 98 111 -13

 

And as for Arenas' on/off court stats ... well, let's just say they aren't pretty and leave it at that.  (Major caveat with these for both players - it's probably too early for the sample size to be significant.  Just throwing them out there).

So that's not pretty.  But Butler's situation isn't really much better.

Stat Butler this season Butler career Difference
Pts/36 15.8 16.5 -0.7
FG% 41.2% 44.2% -3%
3PT% 26.7% 31.4% -4.7%
TS% 49.7% 52.5% -2.8%
eFG% 43.3% 46.2% -2.9%
PER 12.6 16.6 -4
AST% 5.2% 14.5% -9.3%
TO% 14% 12.8% -1.2%
ORtg 96 106 -10

 

And while Butler isn't hurting the team as badly as Arenas is according to the on/off data, he is still a major net negative.  Not to mention that Butler really doesn't have as many built-in excuses as Arenas.  Sure, Butler has an adjustment to the new offense, but it's nowhere near as difficult as Gilbert's.  Gilbert is basically entrusted with getting everyone going at a time when he doesn't even know if he can get himself going after being hurt so much the past two years.  Butler, on the other hand, is being asked to catch and shoot more.  One adjustment is bigger than the other.  (Of course, one guy is also getting paid more than the other, so he should have a bigger adjustment.  And the wagons keep turning, and we keep arguing like kindred spirits around the virtual sports bar that we populate here).  

Now, these are just stats.  As we all know, stats can tell us what's happening with remarkable precision, but they can't tell us how and the why what's happening is happening.  That's where the overanalysis comes in, and this is as good a spot as any for you all to chime in with your theories about these two. 

All I'm trying to say, though, is that we need not spent hours trying to dissect what the problem with the Wizards is right now, because it's clearly Arenas and Butler. 

0 recs  |  Comment 19 comments |

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Neither seem to be able to create anything or “command double-teams” as so often said they could. Arenas seems content to just pass the ball to the next closest guy on the perimeter and go pick his spot rather than trying to drive and create. I’m baffled at how he gets credited with assists sometimes.

Butler, as many have noted, gets good position for a drive or an open shot but squanders it on fakes and bad reads. Both have a terrible case of butterfingers where they can’t hold on to the ball, even when there is barely any ball pressure by the opponents. Both need to be more decisive with the ball.

by Fundefined on Nov 30, 2009 12:42 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Hahaha

Seriously. I see him do this all the time. If it’s not a contested layup, it’ll be a contested jumper, or he’ll just run over a guy hoping to get a foul call.

Great picture.

My swag was phenomenal.

by se7en on Nov 30, 2009 3:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

To be fair

That is what CB has always done. He’s just shooting worse than he did previously while doing the exact same thing.

by BayAreaBullet on Nov 30, 2009 3:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

And Turning the Ball Over More

I see what you’re saying, but I do think Caron changed his game when Gil went down, and now isn’t willing or capable of reverting back.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Nov 30, 2009 4:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah Hollinger made a great point a couple years ago about CB

about how it is seemingly impossible that he had been scoring as well as he does by the way he does. i.e. all long contested 2 pointers. The whole head fake on the open shot and then dribble into a harder contested shot is a staple of CB’s game for years.

by BayAreaBullet on Nov 30, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

True

Not too bad if he’s shooting 45% and higher. But it’s definitely a problem when he’s shooting 40% and turning the ball over twice as often as he assists on a basket.

Obviously this whole season has been frustrating so far and one of the more frustrating things has been to watch Caron pass up open shots in order to take highly contested shots that don’t work, and driving recklessly and getting called for a traveling violation or offense foul.

Caron is doing all of the above, more than once per game, every game.

:(

by formula0 on Nov 30, 2009 4:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

About the way Caron scores; that hasn’t changed. He is one of those rare players who actually shoots better when he is covered. He needs that hand in his face in order to feel comfortable with his shot.

What has changed are his amount of touches. Now that he isn’t the go-to guy on this team, he doesn’t get as many iso’s to establish his rhythm. He got used to initiating the offense and being the primary scorer. Now that he’s second banana again, he is trying to force things way too often in order to get his scoring groove going. It hasn’t worked. He better either fix his problems or at least learn how to hit an open jumper on a catch-and-shoot.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Dec 1, 2009 10:07 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Haha very true. Good analysis, Mike right? You spell “breaks” wrong. Unless you intended that as in a break, however, on an automobile you refer to it as a “brake”.
 
Regardless, good piece. Its not rocket science, if Butler came out dropped 20, and did other things well, And Arenas could drop 20, couple that with NY, Andray, Jamison, Miller, Haywood, Foye, and Haywood or anyone else I feel could contribute between 9-18 we could definitly pull wins.

Synopsis:

Seems Gilbert and Caron DESPERATLY need a break out game. Im not talking making a shot or two I mean 20+ point. Maybe even a 30+ game like Jamison. It doesnt make sense but at the same time it does. I really still do love watching my Wizards but something has to wake these guys up. They have the talent they just need to man up out of this slump, (Ray Allen) and start shooting like your supposed to, defending like your supposed to. Arenas DESPERATLY NEEEDDDSSS to put on weight. Im not sure if these trainers think its better for him to carry less weight on his ankles I disagree. From a training perspective extra muscle on his core, upperbody, legs will help alleviate any stress from bumps, falls, hard fouls, or even just on driving. If Arenas got his speed back, and gained 10 pounds of muscle (it can be done) within the next 3 months you would see a huge positive impact on his game.

Anyways thats my wizard rant of the day.

Great Ravens game!

by Unxpekted on Nov 30, 2009 1:21 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Oops

I knew that – this happens when you rush a post out at 11:15 Sunday night…

Also fixed some figures in Caron’s table that were way off.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Nov 30, 2009 8:17 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh I have to comment on that again, Arenas is too skinny. Yeah I said it. I hope it becomes a trend of people around here agreeing with it. Grover did an awesome job but to me this is a key missed component. You see how muscle training has benefited Andray and Haywood trust me it can do the same for Arenas even for his PG-scoring standpoint. He needs it, he looks like a scared puppy on court, maybe the guy is scared to get injured again. I cant be mad at him, I met him in person twice. Great, humble, cool dude BUT these fans need wins, its good for the team and economy. Am I random, just tell me if you disagree?

by Unxpekted on Nov 30, 2009 1:26 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

How long..

…will Flip stick with a 1/4 offense with Arenas at the point? 10-15? 10-20?

Flip misjudged Arenas in terms of his leadership capability and ability to execute in a 1/4.

Isn’t it time to recognize that the assist/turnover ratios are happening for a reason?

Arenas needs a combo guard beside him to share the ball and get him some open shots. On this roster, the only player that fits the bill is Randy Foye.

by Izman on Nov 30, 2009 7:28 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

If we use the "9-and-20" rule

They have 14 games to get things together.

by Pryme on Nov 30, 2009 9:27 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I agree...

if they are 14-15 or 13-16 after 29, things should work out…. I am comng home to the States for a few days and hope I get to watch a few Wiz wins.

by khrabb on Nov 30, 2009 11:31 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Flips Job

Here are my assumptions – like to know others thoughts

1. Wizards have talented players, but do not have winners. Players that know how and what it takes to win
2. Wizards are capable of beautiful basketball – buta also laying a real egg.
3. Wizards can beat anyone, but lose to anyone too

As always it begins and ends with Arenas. Assuming Gil wants to win and is healthy enough than this becomes Flips job to inspire confidence, get the players to follow the system, create a culture of effort and execution.

The accountability is going to start shifting to him soon

by Buttgras on Nov 30, 2009 12:37 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

well…gilbert has to get some pass for working his way back. two years is a long time

dont know about caron but trust your judgement

bottom line is that other players are growing and the team plays better with them in there

so i hope flip is smart enough to keep giving them the minutes until they prove they cant handle it or gilbert/caron return to form

those two are talented enough, smart enough, care enough, are professional enough, and flip communicates enough to figure out what they need to do to get back on the court more.

i just hope flip has the guts to sit them when they are not part of the best set on the floor until they are

there is a new owner in town; hopefully, there is a new sheriff too!

by les boulez bomber on Nov 30, 2009 4:04 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Uh ... I'm with this "play Blatche more minutes" thing ...

Now where do we find ’em?

Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.

by Truth About It on Nov 30, 2009 8:39 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

how'd we get from

I understand the tendency to worry about Gilbert. He has not looked good all season. But let’s be honest, this scenario is exactly what everyone on the Wizards had in mind, Arenas included. They all knew he would take some time to get his timing back and play injury-free. That’s why the Wizards traded the fifth pick for two scorers. That’s why Ernie Grunfeld signed Boykins in the first place. That’s why Arenas himself was so upset last weekend. As we talked about on last week’s podcast, part of Gilbert’s frustration is happening because he knows he needs his teammates to pick up for him, and prior to this week, they largely hadn’t. Now, they are, and suddenly, we want to spin this as a “what’s wrong with Gilbert” situation?… Again, I get the tendency, but I’d rather be happy that we no longer need to rely on Arenas to bail us out of everything. We can now win games against solid competition with Nick Young leading the way on offense and defense, with Boykins running the show during key spots and Jamison doing his thing. Arenas’ production will improve down the road (hopefully), but for now, he needs help. Help he’s finally getting.

to this

Hey, Gilbert, guess what? We don’t have all the scorers on this team that you think we have. So be aggressive and score the damn ball already. Make plays. We can’t survive if you don’t.

in one day?

i’m more in agreement with the we need gil to play well soon line of thinking. not great, but decent at least.

i think one factor that was overlooked after the bobcats game is the miami beach factor. i don’t know their travel schedule so i could be completely wrong, but i’m guessing some of the guys were partying down in miami. they were so flat on saturday it was sad. might be worst game i’ve ever seen jamison play as a wizard and that’s saying a lot. gonna have to write that one off. fans in attendance should have gotten a refund from the players.

by DarrellWalkerFan on Dec 1, 2009 2:39 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I Think

Many of us kept patiently waiting for this team to finally put it all together, and after our first winning streak greater than 1 game this season, many of us (myself included) thought that time had finally arrived. But the Bobcats game really put us back to square 1, IMO.

Mike Miller, Randy Foye, Earl Boykins, and Nick Young are all nice players, but they can’t carry the load on offense consistently. If the Wizards are going anywhere this season, it’s going to have to be with Gilbert leading the way on offense. And I don’t just mean him dumping the ball off at the top of the key and then trotting over to the perimeter. Bring back Agent Zero, the East Coast Assassin. Or we are doomed. IMO, of course.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Dec 1, 2009 3:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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