If Mike Miller is out for a month, that's a really, really bad thing

by Mike Prada on Nov 22, 2009 11:45 PM EST in Injuries Comment 7 comments

More photos » Bahram Mark Sobhani - AP

So apparently Mike Miller now has a calf injury in addition to the shoulder problem that clearly hasn't fully healed. Mike Jones tweeted last night that he will be evaluated tomorrow, but if his calf muscle "popped," as Flip Saunders said, he could miss up to 4-5 weeks.

If so, that's really bad. Really, really bad.

Right now, the Wizards' offense is struggling with a lack of ball movement. There's no flow to anything that's going on. Guys are shooting too many contested two-point jumpers. Over 70% of the Wizards' shots this year are jumpers, which isn't astronomical, but only 51% of those jumpers are assisted, which is pitifully low. It's no surprise that the Wizards are posting just a 40.9 eFG% on those jumpers. In other words, to put it fairly bluntly, too many guys are displaying on-court selfishness out there.

The one guy who has not displayed such on-court selfishness is Mike Miller. Miller's usage rate is a criminally-low 12.7%. He's taking only good shots and hitting them -- his true shooting percentage is an insane 73.3%. He's moving the ball, making plays for others and passing up looks to give his teammates shots. In short, he's been the antithesis of what's ailing the Wizards offense right now.

Don't believe me? Check out these on-off stats:

When Mike Miller is in the game, the Wizards score an average of 121.5 points per 100 possessions. When he is out of the game, the Wizards score only 90.7 points per 100 possessions. That's a difference of over 30.8 points per 100 possessions.
When Mike Miller is in the game, the Wizards' team effective field goal percentage is 53.7%. When Miller is out of the game, the Wizards' effective field goal percentage is 41.7%
And perhaps most strikingly...
When Mike Miller is in the game, 61% of the Wizards' made field goals are assisted. When he is out of the game, that number drops to 45%. 45 percent! That means that more than half of the Wizards' points when Miller is out of the game come because someone made a one-on-one move and created his own shot. You simply can't score efficiently in this system that way.

It's a small sample size, sure. Still, for a team whose locker room may be fracturing, losing the one player who displays on-court unselfishness is potentially a devastating blow. It's easy to wonder why Miller was playing hurt in the first place, but the Wizards clearly needed him. Now that he's out again, the Wizards will very easily realize how much they will miss the little things Miller provided for them.

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"Calf Strain" is the official, totally misleading name for his injury . . .

You may hear that and think, how bad could a strained calf be? Well, I had one last year, and it’s no joke. A month is about right, and it might take longer, given that this is the Wizards training staff and doctors we’re talking about here.

What happens is, your calf muscle partially tears off from the tendons in your lower leg—that’s what the popping sound is. I actually heard it when my calf tore, and it sounded like someone cracked a whip . . . Anyway, the reason it takes so long to recover is that unless it fully heals—and I mean 100% no doubt about it, completely heals—you’re at serious risk of tearing it again. This also happened to me. I thought it had healed up enough, started playing again, and promptly re-injured it, and had to start rehab all over again.

So while we should regret the injury and miss MM while he’s gone, let’s hope he doesn’t try to come back too soon . . .

by Bucky Katt on Nov 23, 2009 12:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm getting really sick of this team.

New players, same injuries. New coach, same selfishness. Way to throw it all away, guys.

by ronoD nagrO on Nov 23, 2009 8:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Completely agree

This is the same team we’ve watched for 4 years now. The only difference is they’re older, less effective, and much whiner. Miller was like a breath of fresh-air, but apparently we’ll only get a couple of gasps before Gilbert’s boat sinks like the Titanic with all of us trapped w/out life boats.

by jvflail on Nov 23, 2009 11:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe a Good Thing?

Mike Miller has been one of the few bright spots for the Wizards this year, but I hate to see a guy playing in obvious pain so early in the season. Better for him to fully let his calf heal at the same time he fully lets his shoulder heal. Like Bucky katt said above, he needs to make sure he is 100% when he comes back. That way, he can be ready to fully contribute IF the Wizards can somehow get their act together and make the playoffs.

Another reason why this might be the good thing is that it will force other players to drive and kick or otherwise help distribute the ball. It seems to me that everybody else was relying on Miller to set them up, instead of working to set up their teammates. Without the Mike Miller crutch, the Wizards will be forced to step up and do their part to get the offense working again, or otherwise face further humiliation and perhaps even benching.

I still think the Wizards have enough talent, even without Miller, to win a lot of games going forward. But they have to play like a team to do so. Now, they’ll be forced to.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Nov 23, 2009 9:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Playing time

Hope this opens up the rotation for Dom and Nick to get some consistent minutes and find their groove. I was really expecting to see improvement from those two, but they haven’t been able to get on the court much this season. And when they have gotten into the game, they haven’t looked good.

by yop32 on Nov 23, 2009 11:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I Have to Comment on This

Miller’s usage rate is a criminally-low 12.7%.

When Mike Miller comes back, he should be fined $1,000 for every game his usage rate is below 15%.

"It's OK for the Bullets to trade baskets, as long as they can score on their end." -- Words of wisdom from Phil Chenier

by cuppettcj on Nov 23, 2009 11:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Never thought this would happen

But I have to call out Mike for not giving Brendan Haywood credit.

losing the one player who displays on-court unselfishness

Haywood has been pretty unselfish on-court. Well, maybe he’s been fighting teammates for rebounds more than in the past, but I don’t mind that as long as he’s still boxing out his man, which he is.

I would also say that I don’t think most of the one-on-one jump shooting is a result of selfishness. I don’t think Butler, Arenas, etc are taking shots because they want to get their points. I think they just aren’t smart/disciplined enough (yet?) to employ the ball movement needed in this offense.

by steadyhand on Nov 23, 2009 6:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs