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How does Antawn Jamison help the Washington Wizards? Some stats to consider

With Antawn Jamison set to make his season debut against Cleveland tomorrow, I thought I'd scan the archives on 82games.com and look at the type of difference Jamison's presence on the floor makes for the Wizards and for guys like Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler.  These aren't meant to be conclusions, since the team dynamic now is far different than it was in, say, 2007, but they do provide some interesting food for thought.

Without further ado:

(And in case your wondering, bwoodsxyz will be back eventually, but has a personal matter he's been tending to these past couple weeks.  Nothing to worry about (it's actually a very good thing), just something that requires his attention).

Star-divide

The Wizards as a team have always shot better with Jamison on the floor

One of the biggest talking points with Jamison is that his ability to spread the floor and score in so many different areas helped the rest of the team's shooting percentages.  The record shows that this point is unmistakably true.

Here is a list of the Wizards' effective field goal percentages since 2004/05 when Jamison has been on the court, compared to when he hasn't.

Year Wizards' eFG% with Jamison in Wizards eFG% with Jamison out
2004/05 48.2% 45.9%
2005/06 49.4% 43.6%
2006/07 50.6% 46.3%
2007/08 49% 48.4%
2008/09 48% 47.8%

 

Interestingly enough, Jamison's effect was much more pronounced in the years Gilbert Arenas did play than in the ones he didn't.  Part of that may be due to the way Jamison and Arenas compliment each other on the court.  The shooting percentages of the Arenas/Jamison player pairing back this up, even though it took some time to get those up.

Year Arenas' normal FG% Arenas FG% with Jamison
2004/05 43.1% 42.9%
2005/06 44.7% 45.2%
2006/07 41.8% 44%

 

Jamison missed time in both 2004/05 and 2006/07.  In 2006/07, the Wizards leaned heavier on their Big 3 than ever before, so it shouldn't be a surprise that Arenas benefited from Jamison's presence, at least from the shooting department.

What about Caron Butler, you ask?  That's a bit more of a mixed bag.

Year Butler's normal FG% Butler's FG% with Jamison
2005/06 45.5% 45.3%
2006/07 46.3% 47.7%
2007/08 46.6% 45.9%
2008/09 45.3% 44.2%

 

I guess you could throw out 2008/09, but it's a bit troubling to me that Jamison historically hasn't had much of an effect statistically on Butler's shooting.  Butler's shooting has been simply dreadful this season, and if past history is any indication, it might take more than just having Jamison back to fix it. 

Nearly every Wizards player shoots above their season average playing in tandem with Jamison than playing without him

Overall,, Jamison tends to have an across-the-board effect in improving individual players' FG% from their normal season average. 

  • In 2004/05, Jamison's presence resulted in a bump in FG% for every key rotation player except Arenas (barely), Kwame Brown, Etan Thomas and Michael Ruffin
  • In 2005/06, only Butler (barely) and Ruffin shot worse among rotation players. 
  • In 2006/07, only DeShawn Stevenson, Darius Songaila (in less than half the year) and Ruffin (in limited minutes) didn't see a FG% bump with Jamison in the lineup
  • Jamison didn't have nearly as dramatic an effect in 2007/08: Only Songaila saw a major bump in FG% due to Jamison's presence.  Most players were pretty much at the same level with or without Jamison on the court.
  • In 2008/09, Jamison's presence gave a significant bump to the following players' FG%: JaVale McGee (+2.5%), Etan Thomas (+2.5%), Andray Blatche (+1.6%), Dominic McGuire (+3.4%) and Javaris Crittenton (+1.8%).  He had basically no effect on Mike James and DeShawn Stevenson.  Only Butler, Nick Young and Juan Dixon saw their FG% drop with Jamison out there with him.

Obviously, that's not perfect, but for the most part, Jamison helps create better shooting percentages for the Wizards.

Jamison helps Arenas get more assists, but not Butler

Logically, it would seem Jamison helps get Arenas and Butler more assists because of his ability to finish quickly without necessarily creating his own shot off the dribble.  The stats back this up in Arenas' case, but interestingly enough, not in Butler's.

In Arenas' three healthy years, he has always dished out dimes at a higher rate with Jamison on the floor than his season average. 

Year Arenas' A/40 season Arenas A/40 with Jamison
2004/05 5.0 5.5
2005/06 5.7 6
2006/07 6 6.4

 

That may not seem like much, but consider that Jamison and Arenas nearly always shared the court, due to both playing a ton of minutes for Eddie Jordan.  It's incredible that Jamison makes even that much difference in Arenas' assist rates considering how rarely the two played without each other.

That same logic holds for Caron Butler, yet we don't see the assist bump that you see with Arenas.

Year Butler A/40 season Butler A/40 with Jamison
2005/06 2.8 2.8
2006/07 3.8 3.7
2007/08 4.9 4.8
2008/09 4.5 4.6

 

Once again, this provides evidence that it'll take more than Jamison's return to fix Butler's woes.

Jamison and rebounding

Jamison's ability to improve the team's total offensive and defensive rebound percentage when he's on the floor compared to where he isn't is a bit more of a mixed bag than I expected.  Consider:

  • There are two years (2005/06 and 2007/08) where Jamison had a tremendous positive impact on both the teams' offensive and defensive rebounding.
  • There is one year where he made a tremendous impact on the offensive glass, but not so much on the defensive glass (2004/05)
  • There is one year where he had a tremendous impact on the defensive glass (crazy, even) and had a pretty significant negative differential on offensive rebounding (2008/09)
  • There is one year (2006/07) where he didn't have much of an effect on either the offensive or defensive boards.

There are several reasons for this odd trend.  The Wizards were fifth in the league in offensive rebounding in 2004/05 but just 25th in defensive rebounding, so Jamison probably caught that bug.  2005/06 was when Etan Thomas missed a lot of time and Michael Ruffin caught the suckitude bug. 2006/07 was when Jamison was asked to leak out onto the break more often than he was asked to rebound.  2007/08 was when Jamison himself had the best rebounding season of his career.  2008/09 was, well, 2008/09.

Anyway, these stats are just meant as food for thought.  Use them as you all may.

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Win tonight

…and all the stats, negativity, and lack of chemistry go out the door. It will be start of a new season.

Lose tonight, and…well, let’s just say losing is not an option.

by Izman on Nov 18, 2009 7:27 AM EST reply actions  

McGee

My first thought is that Jamison is really going to help out McGee. A high screen and roll with Arenas and McGee is going to be pretty effective if Jamison and Miller are out there to spread the floor. As long as McGee has space in the lane, those alley oops should be there.

Of course, a frontcourt featuring McGee and Jamison won’t be that effective on D.

by nate33 on Nov 18, 2009 12:15 PM EST reply actions  

Caron

I think it is fair to note the Caron’s All Star Years and All Star Statistics were compiled when Gil was hurt. Caron is a good player who benefitted by being “the man” when Gil was out.

Now that Gil is back and there is a greater level of talent on the team I think it is realistic to see Caron’s scoring and stats go down. That is not a bad thing only reality of less touches, less focus and integrating new players.

by Buttgras on Nov 18, 2009 1:51 PM EST reply actions  

I think there is alot of analysis and discussion of this team that I find redundant, incomplete, and unecessary. I think people are just eager to see the team at its full potential so the excitment has alot of folks chattering away.

Bottom line!:

You should really analyze, grade, and make assumptions about the team with all its key players somewhat deep or atleast into pre-mid season.

We have yet to have any consistancy in our player line-up, players health, and player chemistry. For these reasons I am really not that upset with our record. I am not impressed, nor EXTREMELY disappointed.

Today will certainly set the bar as to what this team can do. I think today will be a good indication against a great defensive team with the best record in the Centrel divsion. If we can compete, come close, or potentially win this will certainly tell us what we can do healthy. Defense, offense, chemistry, and confidence are some things to make note of.

by Unxpekted on Nov 18, 2009 2:37 PM EST reply actions  

Stats don’t make conclusions, we all make our own conclusions. We’re just saying that the stats show a lot of evidence on how important Jamison is when it comes to spreading the floor and making everyone else better. Not to mention his mentality and leadership. He’s a freakin’ rock. Love him to death.

My swag was phenomenal.

by se7en on Nov 19, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions  

This is a really interesting post

Lots to digest and analyze. While this post was created to determine the impact Jamison might have on the team with his return, this post also has ramifications for what I would describe as the most interesting storyline of the year so far: Caron Butler. What is Butler’s future with this team?

Butler’s numbers last year looked fine, but those of us who follow the team closely know that he struggled last year and was not close to being an all-star performer. His performance so far this year has been pretty bad. So, with Butler’s contract expiring at the end of next season, what happens to him? Do the Wizards extend his deal, and if so, at what price? Does Butler become one of those enticing expiring contracts shopped around the league? Does Grunfeld decide that Butler isn’t a great fit, and look elsewhere to fill the small forward position? Does Grunfeld resign Miller this summer and start shopping Butler?

The fact that Jamison’s presence doesn’t impact Butler that much does help Butler in this analysis — with Jamison’s contract expiring the following year, perhaps resigning Butler is a good move. The thing we often don’t realize is the pressure that players are under. If Jamison is healthy the rest of this year and next, when Grunfeld is deciding whether to extend Butler and pair him with Arenas long-term, Grunfeld will naturally look back to the first nine games of this season. What weight he will give to these games, I don’t know, but if he gives these games some weight, how many millions of dollars did Caron Butler lose through his performance so far this season?

by disgrunted on Nov 18, 2009 3:15 PM EST reply actions  

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