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It's all in the jumper (well, almost) for Andray Blatche

In the spirit of reminding everyone that we're not even one-tenth of the way through the season, let's talk about the one major bright spot of the first eight games -- Andray Blatche.

Blatche has arguably been the Wizards' best player thus far this season.  (This is where your jaw drops and you gasp.  Do it for effect, please).  He has the highest PER and the highest Roland Rating (which is 82games' statistical formula that takes into account individual numbers as well as the team's performance when he's on the court as opposed to being on the bench) on the team.  He's also been among the most consistent players, which may be an even greater sign that he's coming along. 

How come Blatche is surging statistically?  It must be better rebounding, right?  Well ... no; his rebound rate this season is actually lower than it was last season.  Better passing?  No, his assist rate is basically the same.  Fewer turnovers?  Okay, okay, that's actually a big part of his improvement -- his turnover percentage is just 11.6% this year as compared to 14.3% last year.  But it's not nearly as significant as ...

(Dun Dun Dun)

... Blatche's improved jump-shooting.

Star-divide

Earlier this summer, we talked about how much better Blatche would be if he just stopped attempting so many jumpers.  Why?  Blatche was simply dreadful at shooting them last year.  His eFG% on jump shots last year was 35.6%, the type of mark you see from guys like Rajon Rondo and Tyrus Thomas.  That he posted a league-average PER while posting such a poor percentage on jumpers is actually kind of remarkable.  

The theory at the time was that Blatche should get inside more and shoot fewer jumpers, because he stunk so much shooting from the perimeter last year.  Jumpers constituted 57% of Blatche's shots last year, which is about 30 percent too high for someone who shoots that poorly.  He would have provided much better production, the theory stated, if he played more to his strengths on offense.

Well, fast-forward one year later, and Blatche's jump-shooting has completely transformed.  Blatche has an eFG% of 50% on jump shots in the first eight games, and amazingly enough, he's actually shooting more jumpers this year than last year (63% of his shots are Js).  His improved jump-shooting proficiency has vaulted his true shooting percentage all the way up 57.4%, as opposed to his mediocre 50.8% mark last season. 

How do you explain this?  I see two reasons that go hand-in-hand.  The first explanation is quite simple -- Blatche worked his butt off on his jumper this summer.  Granted, Seven-Day Dray worked his butt off on everything this past summer, but he has continually singled out jump-shooting as an area of emphasis.  The far more detailed explanation, however, lies in the type of jumpers he's taking.  We all have the typical Blatche possession where he dribbles five times and launches an awful shot in our heads because, well, that's what happened so much last year.  Only 44% of Blatche's jump shots last year were assisted, and when you're constantly shooting off the dribble, your percentage suffers unless you're an incredibly unique player like Jamal Crawford.  This season, 63% of Blatche's jumpers are assisted, because Blatche is catching and shooting confidently instead of trying to create something on his own.  No wonder his percentages ae up.

Now, the reason I say these two reasons go hand-in-hand is because confidence plays a huge role here.  It's just hard to tell which way.  Blatche is making much quicker decisions when he gets the ball, opting to let it fly when he's open much more often than in the past.  Why is this happening?  Clearly, Blatche has developed a good rhythm from practicing the shot all the time, and trusting that rhythm in the heat of the moment comes from having confidence in your shot.  On the other hand, confidence also comes into play when he's hitting the shot early on.  It's possible Blatche found that, when he set his feet, squared his shoulders and just shot it rather than trying to create something off the dribble, he was actually a pretty damn good shooter already.  He just needed to see that ball go through the hoop to gain the necessary confidence.  It's a classic chicken or the egg phenomenon.

Regardless, as long as Blatche continues to play and shoot this confidently, he's going to be an incredible asset coming off the bench relieving Antawn Jamison.  We talked about how Jamison's injury was Blatche's opportunity to shine, and that's exactly what he's done.

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The wait is finally over!!!

We all saw how good he could be and we were just waiting to trade him for some over the hill vet before he blows up al a Sheed, Big Ben the list goes on.

Could it be a new era in Bullets basketball? Now we just need to create a new league were only teams with half there roster are on the “DNP injury” list.

Detroit time baby or as I like to say Bullets version 2.0

by Le Bullet on Nov 12, 2009 8:18 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Le Bullet HiStory

You c the Bullets have a long history of getting rid of young talent for over the hill vets like Duckworth and the like. It’s been really hard being a Bullets fan over the years considering the last time we had respect was the year after I was born in ‘77. I come from an era were Michael Adams was a good point guard for us and Rex Chapman was the man, (don’t get me wrong Rex is the man).

So for 7 day dre to be the man for us is the anti-Kwame and it just feels right to have half our team on the DNP Injury list with Dre playing so well. We as a team have a hard time putting it all together over the last 30 plus years. It’s the Curse of Le Bullet. We get Jordan, but he kills the team and everyone want to forget he even spent time here. We get Golden States bad arz crew and they all get injured. We let Wes do his do because he won a championship and he ends up being the worst GM of all time, (ok the clippers have it worse, but come on Wes was a nightmare).

On a side note… At first I was less than thrilled to have M&M on the squad, for back in the day when Rip was doing his do in a Bullets uni, Mike Miller put him on DNP injury list for about 20 games or so, busting up the mans family jewels and all. And ever since I have not liked him. But to my surprise he ends up being a great team player and warrior. So I hope he finds his shooters touch / killer instinct. For I see him being a beast on our squad.

by Le Bullet on Nov 13, 2009 5:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Blatche will get better

Dre will continue to improve this year and beyond for several reasons. First, when the team’s chemistry starts to gel, everybody’s stats and performance will improve. Second, the guy hasn’t played that much. Big guys take at least 3-4 years of significant playing time to reach their potential. Blatche has the equivalent of less than 2 years. Third, it looks like Flip understands he needs a steady diet of minutes, and that he shouldn’t be jerked around between the 4 and 5. Finally, as he matures with age, that will help with his temperment and confidence on the court.

by Izman on Nov 12, 2009 8:22 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

one sub point to add

one of the reasons his shots have been assisted is that gil is back, creating, penetrating, and generally spacing out the floor. but everyone on the team deserves credit for realizing that his shot has improved and getting him the ball in his sweet spots

Getting buckets since 2003.

by Icantfeelmyface on Nov 12, 2009 8:37 PM EST via mobile reply actions   0 recs

another point

I remember reading a Mcgee quote saying how he likes how Flip encourages the big men to shoot jumpers. While this was met with apprehension by the BF community, this clearly has benefited Dray.

by corruptparty on Nov 12, 2009 8:52 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Dray's development...

Will be an even bigger asset once Jamison’s back. When that happens, I imagine Flip will have him backing up both Antawn and Haywood, which means less floor time for Oberto, who just doesn’t bring much to the table anymore. I loved Oberto in the season opener against Dallas, but now it’s kinda painful to watch him lumber around out there. Andray will be a huge upgrade to both the 4 and 5, and Fab can go back to an 8-10 min/game sub, which is why he was brought in in the first place.

by YellaFella on Nov 12, 2009 8:58 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Lineups

I can’t wait to see a lineup of
Gil, Foye, Miller, Jamison, and Blatche
Can any team stay home on shooters with thats lineups ability to drive and kick with 5 shooters.
Oberto’s not a 20 minute guy, especially, when there are no offensive options. When we get him back down to 10 he’s going to be a great change and his passing will be more effective.

by forthepeople on Nov 12, 2009 9:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

5.5, 4.5, 3.4

That was his personal foul rate per 36 minutes in each of his last 3 seasons. I think this is the most amazing stat. His defense has steadily improved while his foul rate has dramatically fallen.

by nate33 on Nov 12, 2009 9:24 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Nice post.

We needed something positive. Good analysis too.

by mogoman on Nov 12, 2009 10:05 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

What can you say

Ernie Grunfield knows 2nd round talent

by ccrun1800 on Nov 13, 2009 5:50 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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