Happy Small Sample Size Day!


Of course one of the worst abuses of stats in sports is to draw unwarranted conclusions based on too small sample sizes.  Except when your team wins its opening game.  That, of course, is the BEST.  So, without further ado, we can conclude based on last night that:

  • Arenas will shoot almost 50% from the field with a 3:1 assists to turnover ratio while drawing 7 fouls per game.
  • Arenas will average 38 minutes per, which is actually still a reduction from his last three healthy seasons.
  • Arenas will keep daring his man to shoot the three, but that's fine because his opponents will collectively go 0 for 246 from three.
  • Foye will break some sort of record by managing to post only 1.2 assists per 36 while both serving as the primary backup PG and SG. 
  • But that's ok, because Foye will also post 19 points per on 56% shooting and hold the opposition to just over 30% shooting.
  • That still won't be enough to win the 6th Man award over 7 Day Dray and his 30.8 PER.
  • Of course, Dray's 30.8 PER actually leaves him significantly underrated.  Better to pay attention to his 24.6 Win Shares, good enough for the third best season ever, behind one from Kareem and one from Wilt.
  • Dom McGuire.  A -23.9 PER (yes, that is a negative sign) and an #undefined#!# offensive rating.
  • Our perimeter players will grab as many boards as opposing frontcourts.
  • No one will shoot on Vale.  No, seriously, no shots at all.  Ok, so it would be more impressive if he actually averaged a whole minute per game.
  • 83% from the line.  Who needs Hopla?
  • Mike Miller will be the Most Efficient Player Ever:  an offensive rating of 158 and a defensive rating of 86.
  • Miller and Blatche will both have more assists and create more turnovers than they will commit turnovers.  Of course, it is easy because they won't actually commit any turnovers despite averaging a combined 57 minutes.
  • Oberto will post a +31 per 36 minutes despite averaging 10.6 fouls per 36 and a shocking 45% turnover percentage.  How?  It must be the little things and the perfect shooting.  Anyway, who are you to question the magic of Fabricio "The Plus" Oberto?
  • Your Washington Wizards will finish 5 in the league in defensive rating!  (out of 8 teams, but still....that's just slightly below average!)
  • And, of course, saving best for last:  Wiz = 82-0

Oh, wait, one more thing:  Cleveland = 0-82

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