Preseason by the numbers - Now with +/-
by bwoodsxyz on Oct 21, 2009 12:31 PM EDT
in Team Analysis
30 comments
(bwoods note: after +/- was raised by Manimal in the Sixers game wrap comments, I went back and did the math on individual +/-, which has been added to the end of the post. While it is very early to put too much weight on this sort of thing, the results are enough to make me pull the Blatche Bandwagon over and put it in park for a while. And, if Jamison isn't ready for the start of the season, should Oberto be the starting PF?)
While I continue working through incorporating the many good comments to last week's Expanded Four Factors Box Score and finalize the rules that will be applied for tracking once the season kicks off, this week we'll take a look at what notable numbers the guys have posted so far this preseason.
All numbers are drawn from dougstats.com and basketball-reference.com. Of course take all of these with the caveats of limited sample size and questionable competition, but with that understood:
- I'm not a big fan of the one-3pt-attempt-per-game approach, but 54.5% from the floor and 50% from 3 (on 6 attempts) are by themselves hard to argue with.
- He's been to the line 34 times in only 5 games. That is good. He's shooting 64.7% once he gets there. That isn't. Hopefully just a rhythm and flow issue.
- 11.55 assists per 36 are a lot. So are 6.9 turnovers per 36.
- Only 4 total rebounds? That's just weird.
- He has the second worst DRating on the team. 108.3. He has been daring his counterparts to take outside jumpers and they've been hitting enough to be a problem. I do suspect, however, that his cause has been hurt some by who he has been on the floor in combination with.
- His 4.575 assists/36 and 2.55 turnovers/36 sound better than how he has actually looked to me at the PG spot.
- 96% from the line while second on the team in FTA takes some of the sting off of his 38.4% from the floor and 33.3% from three.
- Not counting last night's game, he had a DRating of 103, which doesn't sound that great at first, but was 1.5 better than the team's overall mark, and the best among the team's 1s and 2s. Assuming he is in fact the backup PG, it will be interesting to see how the second unit fares on D this year. Seems promising.
- His ORating is about 20 points worse than his DRating. Please get well, Javaris.
- To say something good about him, he's grabbed almost as many steals (7) as he's committed turnovers (8).
- To put it kindly, he has struggled. His ORating vs DRating is actually running worse than Mike James'.
- He's shooting better than....Deshawn and Dominic.
- The worst DRating on the team does not make the idea of a starting backcourt of Gilbert and Nick seem all that appealing right now.
Deshawn Stevenson
- He is tied for the team lead in made 3s and is hitting them at 41.2%.
- He has made 0% of his five 2-pt FG attempts.
- His 2.5:1 assists:turnovers is solid.
- His DRating is slightly better than the team average. Right now, I'd start him at SG next to Arenas, though not with starter minutes.
- He is doing his Tough Juice things. Hopefully the 1-11 from 3 and the 15-21 from the line are just preseason blips, while his 50% FG shooting while leading the team in attempts is sustainable. No wonder he is the leader of the dish-first Arenas fanclub.
- Lots to like here, especially as his shooting has gotten more aggressive. The 57.9% TS is just silly (though still behind Gilbert).
- 3.6 assists/36 seems about right, but the 3 turnovers/36 seems a little high.
- Still looks like the Dominic that Wages of Wins loves and the rim hates. 21.4% from the floor? Seriously?
- Hope the Bionic Gentleman comes back completely healthy. His stats were already in midseason form.
- 46.9% from the field, a nice number of assists but with too many turnovers, blah, blah, blah. But now, the good stuff--
- The team leader in total rebounding. Third on the team in offensive rebounding (not counting Paul Davis).
- The team leader in DRating (it was at 96.6 prior to last night's game).
- Maybe this is The Year We Have Waited For (on defense, anyway-his offensive numbers are much more Bulletproof-like).
- He's come out sharp with his post moves, hitting 65% of his FG and getting sent to the line at a good rate.
- Bring Back Dave Hopla. 25% at the line.
- Leading the team in offensive boards. An underrated area in which he was missed last year.
Javale McGee
- Basically, like last year except even moreso. Fantastic TS% despite too many dumb jumpshots, swatting at everything (for better and for worse), etc. Still quite a prospect and still quite rough around the edges.
- Looking amazing at Doing the Little Things in limited action. I can't wait to see how he looks in +/- once the season starts.
- 10 assists to 2 turnovers!
- 7 steals to 2 turnovers!
- Last among the bigs in rebounding.
Paul Davis
- Is not DeJuan Blair.
-
Player +/- Minutes
|
F Oberto |
+19 | 110 |
| M Miller | +12 | 119 |
| J McGee | +8 | 126 |
| G Arenas | +2 | 109 |
| C Butler | -6 | 147 |
| A Jamison | -9 | 119 |
| R Foye | -10 | 157 |
| M James | -10 | 89 |
| D Stevenson | -11 | 121 |
| D McGuire | -13 | 92 |
| N Young | -16 | 155 |
| B Haywood | -17 | 93 |
| A Blatche | -41 | 147 |
Some notes (while repeating the caveat that it is very early for +/-):
- Yes, Oberto is +19, but also of note is that he is +40 as a starter and - 21 coming off the bench. Perhaps his defense and passing brings a spark in combination with the starters that is wasted with the other reserves?
- Blatche was on the floor for the worst stretch of the Toronto game, the worst stretch of the Detroit game, and enough of the Atlanta game to hurt. He posted positives in the Memphis and Cleveland games.
- Several players would be in positive category if it weren't for the Atlanta game. Foye, Stevenson, Butler, and Haywood are all dragged down by their part in that.
- I didn't expect to see McGee third on this list, did you?
- Is Miller lucky to have missed the Atlanta game, or was the game such a wreck in part because of his absence?
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Preseason by the numbers
Your conclusion that Stevenson should start isn’t consistent with your write-up or the stats in the sources that you cite (dougstats.com).
For example, DS is shooting 32% from the field and 60% from the free throw line and is averaging less than 10 points per 48. Additionally, his defense is not as good as Foye’s. Similarly, Miller’s Drating would have to be atrocious to justiy DS over Miller, given MM’s play on the offensive side.
It seems that Foye can play 24 minutes a game next to Arenas and 12 minutes a game subbing for him next to MM, and that would yield an overall better result. Did you consider this possibility?
by Izman on Oct 21, 2009 4:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I was really thinking of fit among lineups and not playing time. Off the top of my head, I’m still thinking no more than 18-20 minutes per for Stevenson even as a starter, with about that same amount for Foye and much more for Miller.
Also, I must admit that I really didn’t give any thought to Foye at SG, which is perhaps a mistake. I was mostly thinking about the Stevenson/Young/Miller SG situation, without considering Foye there. While Foye has been looking like a fine PG defender, I’m not so sure about him and Gil together on defense. It would be interesting to see that combo play together some, per your suggestion (I’m not remembering them playing together for any meaningful stretches this preseason, but maybe it has happened?). His opposing-player PER stats in Minny actually don’t set off any red lights about him as a SG defender, though his DRating was better at PG than at SG.
My thinking re starting was that Stevenson is showing signs of playing decent defense, which is valuable alongside Arenas, and being a decent 3-pt shooter, which is a must, especially if Gil is limiting his own outside shots. (If Foye can match that against SGs, then that would be an interesting alternative.)
Meanwhile I’m assuming Foye is going to get 16 or so minutes per as the backup point guard (I don’t see much choice on that right now), and I’m buying into the idea that you need a shot-creator/facilitator at the SG and/or SF spots if Foye is at PG, which pretty much demands having Miller on the floor, particularly over Young and Stevenson, and probably over Butler as well. If you give Miller 24 minutes at SG, then you probably want 16 of those to be the time that Foye is on the floor at PG, leaving 8 other minutes with Arenas. You still have 24 minutes with Arenas to fill, and, right now, Young has not made a case for getting many of those minutes over Stevenson.
by bwoodsxyz on Oct 21, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with everything
about Stevenson and the defense. I like what you say about Foye on defense but did you consider that Foye could just cover the other teams best offensive option regardless of position? Gilbert is fairly tall for a PG and there are a fair amount of matchups in the East where having Arenas(who is gonna be bad at D regardless) defending the 2 and having Foye cover the 1 might be the best defensive option that keeps Arenas on the floor. I just look at the Eastern teams like Toronto(Calderon, a bunch of nobody’s), Charlotte(Augustin, another bunch of nobodies), Boston(Rondo, Allen), Cleveland(Williams,West/Parker), Indiana(Ford,Some guys), NJ(Harris,C. Lee), Knicks(N. Robinson,Some Guys) and see teams with their best offensive option at PG. That’s not even counting Detroit who will be playing Ben Gordon alot at the 2. I know you were only talking about as a Starter but what do you think about Foye and Arenas playing together alot in certain games where Foye guards the other teams PG? I like it against certain teams just because I think when a PG is just running through a defense and getting in the lane whenever they want it makes a Team really difficult to defend.
by BayAreaBullet on Oct 22, 2009 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Flexibility
Really understanding the flexibility of our roster has been the best part of the preseason for me. We probably won’t see any obvious payoff during the regular season, but come playoff time its all about match ups.
by forthepeople on Oct 22, 2009 2:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I would like to see NY get minutes early in the game playing with Arenas. That way we get a heat check on Young and see if we can use him in the second half.
by forthepeople on Oct 21, 2009 6:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Why would we jerk around everyone's minutes to get a "Heat Check"?
People always talk about NY’s Offense like it’s valuable to the team. His offense is the most superflous aspect of our whole roster. We will never have a problem scoring enough points so why should we change everything around to see if NY is hot that night? Plus with the way he plays defense right now putting him out there with Arenas would gaurantee that the other teams guards get in the Zone early and often against us. NY and his skill set would be great on a team like Cleveland but he really doesn’t add much to this team until he can play D. MM can score even more effectively than NY and he provides rebounding and passing. Foye can score as much and plays better defense and can slide over to PG. DS provides defense and shoots the three better than NY. Why bench superior players just cuz some guy we all want to see blowup just might add something the team doesn’t need.
by BayAreaBullet on Oct 22, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
plus isn't that bad for NY
to give him inconsistent minutes and have him know if he doesn’t hit his first couple shots he’s gonna be riding pine the rest of the year?
by BayAreaBullet on Oct 22, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly what Ed Tapscott did to Young last year…. worked great, didn’t it?
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
by Rook6980 on Oct 22, 2009 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see your point.
I want Nick to get the same early minutes with Gil every game. Last year minutes fluctuated on a game to game basis. If he knows he’s going to play, for example 8 min in the second quarter, every game he can start to carve out his niche. Maybe thats not realistic. Like any guy coming off the bench in the league, if you look bad early you won’t see minutes later. Coaches go with what works.
by forthepeople on Oct 22, 2009 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm all for consistent minutes
NY just has to show he deserves them. Right now he hasn’t. He’s the 4th best SG option for this team. He’s injury insurance and I don’t know if we have to take minutes away from better players because he might provide some unneccesary scoring. Maybe riding the pien for the first half of the season will wake him up and he’ll improve on D.
by BayAreaBullet on Oct 22, 2009 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
plus he is by far the worst SG candidate we have to play with Gil
The other teams guards would be on fire like NBA Jam.
by BayAreaBullet on Oct 22, 2009 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like what Stevenson, Miller, Foye, Oberto, and Arenas has been doing out there as far as helping the guys who were healthy last season
by Unxpekted on Oct 21, 2009 9:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Preseason by the numbers
I understand that 24 minutes are open at the 2 next to Arenas in your analysis, and you like Stevenson because of his D and 3 point shooting.
Essentially, your approach leaves Foye with only 16 minutes per game. Yet Foye is as good as Stevenson on D and shoots 37% from the 3 versus 34% for DS. Foye also had a PER of 17 at SG and 13 at PG last year, implying he can play the position.
This year he started with Arenas in the Toronto game and both had +6 for the game, so the starters did okay with that rotation.
Flip’s approach of a tight rotation forces tough decisions. Who’s a lock so far? Arenas, Butler, Jamison and Haywood for sure. Then, in all likelihood, Miller, Blatche and Foye. That’s seven. If there is an eight man rotation, it looks like Oberto is the 8th man, although the stats make it a tight race with McGee.
The rest of the roster would be spot relievers.
by Izman on Oct 21, 2009 9:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm with you on this, but its a real quandry
Foye isn’t a PG, but we need someone to bring the ball up the floor when Arenas isn’t in the game. Miller isn’t a good defender and so he doesn’t complement our starters quite as well as Foye does. Stephenson doesn’t bring as much to the table as Foye, but at least he brings D about as good (or better) than Foye’s and if he starts, then it means that Foye can come in to spell Gil as the ball handler.
The ideal pairing is probably Arenas and Foye (thoguh that backcourt has size issues) – any chance we could go with a point forward setup and bring Miller in in a Hedo-like role as a 6th man?
by Manimal Smith on Oct 21, 2009 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m thinking like bwoodz…. Stevenson as the Starter…
Foye the backup PG (but only with Miller), and backup SG
Foye is fine bringing the ball up court…. but he’s not very good with the ball in his hands trying to create offense. He’s great as a SG coming off screens, catch-and-shoot, open 3-pointers, and the occasional kamikaze drive to the hoop…. but as a PG, you need someone else to help facilitate the Offense. Miller has shown that he can do that….
With Foye at PG, he still gets his points, but the team suffers because he cannot create shots for his teammates…. Miller can.
Unfortunately – and I really hate to say this, but I think this leaves Nick Young out of the rotation.
Arenas (32) / Foye (16)
Stevenson (20) / Foye (10) / Miller (18 – mostly when Foye is playing PG)
Butler (34) / Miller (14)
Jamison (34) / Blatche (14)
Haywood (30) / Oberto (10) / some Blatche (8)
That’s a 9-man rotation… with plenty of firepower off the bench…. good balance between offense and defense for both the starters and bench…
Despite what everyone WANTS to see – McGee just makes too many mistakes to earn a rotation spot…. Young needs to defend better (or bring SOMETHING else besides scoring) before he can crack the rotation…. McGuire will get spot duty, along with Mike James (foul trouble, injuries, etc…) . Crittenton’s injury put him too far behind to make up enough ground to take a rotation spot away from somebody… he’ll be pulling splinters out of his butt all year.
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
by Rook6980 on Oct 21, 2009 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rook, I think you got it. I predict a few more minutes for Oberto and a few less for Haywood, but otherwise I agree with your whole post.
Don’t worry, each of the guys on the outside will get their chance at some point during the season, especially NY.
by MR on Oct 21, 2009 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can’t recall ever before seeing a team on which a guy who is barely edged out of a starting job ends up with so little playing time, but it’s going to happen to somebody here.
by MR on Oct 21, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Foye is
also a pretty good scorer with the ball in his hands. Coming off the high screen, he hits the free throw line extended pull up going left or right. He seems to have all the right scoring weapons to be a good pg in this system. Hopefully, through the season and watching a lot of game tape, he can grow as a passer off the dribble.
Your breakdown of the minutes looks pretty spot on to me.
by forthepeople on Oct 21, 2009 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
NO!
But I love Nick!
Why do I have this weird feeling we’ll trade him before the deadline? Probably from all the Nick-haters on this blog. I need to get real though. My obsession with Nick isn’t getting us anywhere.
My swag was phenomenal.
by se7en on Oct 22, 2009 1:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nick Young is close
I think he has enough endurance to play 20+ minutes at the two. I think whats holding him back, most, is strength. Defensively at the 2 you have to be able to grind. The stronger you are the more you can bump and wear down aggressive twos. At this point I think Nick has to start trusting that his offense takes care of itself. If he still doesn’t have a handle on the plays he has way more work to do than I currently believe.
He can overcome his strength deficiency if he can really learn his opponents starter and the backup SG tendencies. It has to be both because coming off the bench he can never be sure which one he will be facing. Thats 30 teams 2 SGS each, 60 guys max. Over 82 games with another year of first hand experience, I really hope he can figure it out by the end of the year. What he gives us will make a huge difference.
by forthepeople on Oct 22, 2009 3:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with that rotation
and Nick and McGee will get there chances. If being a wizards fan has taught us anything its that people will get hurt. At some point in the season we will need to count on those guys, and they will get a chance to force their way into the rotation.
But the rotation laid out by rook has a bunch of guys who know exactly what their role on the team would be, exactly what their strengths and weaknesses are (ok, Foye and Blatche need to do a little growing up in that department) and all have significant NBA experience. That is a team that can compete with anyone in the NBA, beat them we will have to see how it comes together, but compete with them, yes
by Blatche4MVP on Oct 22, 2009 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you too
But it seems like Stevenson needs to start because the Wizards need at least one defensive presence out there at the start of the game. The Wizards seem to get off to a lot of bad starts in the EJ era and I feel like if Stevenson plays really well on defense early then the Wizards will not play catch up the whole game like they have in the past.
"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck
by George Templeton on Oct 22, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Preseason
Can’t really put any stock in this. Everything changes in the regular season (lineups, intensity level, strategies, etc.), but I was curious, so I adjusted to +/- per 36:
F Oberto 6.2
M Miller 3.6
J McGee 2.3
G Arenas 0.7
C Butler -1.5
R Foye -2.3
A Jamison -2.7
D Stevenson -3.3
N Young -3.7
M James -4.0
D McGuire -5.1
B Haywood -6.6
A Blatche -10.0
by steadyhand on Oct 22, 2009 3:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Interesting about Oberto's +/-
As far as with the starters versus the bench. And now Flip is talking about starting Oberto while Blatche is off the bench (though I’d wager Blatche will get comparable minutes to Bert, if not more).
I wonder what is going on there and if Flip sees something in particular?
by Hoopalotta on Oct 23, 2009 2:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
After final preseason game...
F Oberto 4.0 M Miller 3.2 G Arenas -1.6 J McGee -1.7 A Jamison -2.7 C Butler -3.2 M James -4.0 R Foye -4.6 N Young -4.7 D McGuire -6.1 B Haywood -7.4 D Stevenson -9.7 A Blatche -12.3
by steadyhand on Oct 24, 2009 11:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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