Preseason by the numbers - Now with +/-

(bwoods note:  after +/- was raised by Manimal in the Sixers game wrap comments, I went back and did the math on individual +/-, which has been added to the end of the post.  While it is very early to put too much weight on this sort of thing, the results are enough to make me pull the Blatche Bandwagon over and put it in park for a while.  And, if Jamison isn't ready for the start of the season, should Oberto be the starting PF?)

While I continue working through incorporating the many good comments to last week's Expanded Four Factors Box Score and finalize the rules that will be applied for tracking once the season kicks off, this week we'll take a look at what notable numbers the guys have posted so far this preseason.

All numbers are drawn from dougstats.com and basketball-reference.com.  Of course take all of these with the caveats of limited sample size and questionable competition, but with that understood:

Gilbert Arenas

  • I'm not a big fan of the one-3pt-attempt-per-game approach, but 54.5% from the floor and 50% from 3 (on 6 attempts) are by themselves hard to argue with.
  • He's been to the line 34 times in only 5 games.  That is good.  He's shooting 64.7% once he gets there.  That isn't.  Hopefully just a rhythm and flow issue.
  • 11.55 assists per 36 are a lot.  So are 6.9 turnovers per 36.
  • Only 4 total rebounds?  That's just weird.
  • He has the second worst DRating on the team.  108.3.  He has been daring his counterparts to take outside jumpers and they've been hitting enough to be a problem.  I do suspect, however, that his cause has been hurt some by who he has been on the floor in combination with.

Randy Foye

  • His 4.575 assists/36 and 2.55 turnovers/36 sound better than how he has actually looked to me at the PG spot.
  • 96% from the line while second on the team in FTA takes some of the sting off of his 38.4% from the floor and 33.3% from three.
  • Not counting last night's game, he had a DRating of 103, which doesn't sound that great at first, but was 1.5 better than the team's overall mark, and the best among the team's 1s and 2s.  Assuming he is in fact the backup PG, it will be interesting to see how the second unit fares on D this year.  Seems promising.

Mike James

  • His ORating is about 20 points worse than his DRating.  Please get well, Javaris.
  • To say something good about him, he's grabbed almost as many steals (7) as he's committed turnovers (8).

Nick Young

  • To put it kindly, he has struggled.  His ORating vs DRating is actually running worse than Mike James'.
  • He's shooting better than....Deshawn and Dominic.
  • The worst DRating on the team does not make the idea of a starting backcourt of Gilbert and Nick seem all that appealing right now.

Deshawn Stevenson

  • He is tied for the team lead in made 3s and is hitting them at 41.2%. 
  • He has made 0% of his five 2-pt FG attempts.
  • His 2.5:1 assists:turnovers is solid.
  • His DRating is slightly better than the team average.  Right now, I'd start him at SG next to Arenas, though not with starter minutes.

Caron Butler

  • He is doing his Tough Juice things.  Hopefully the 1-11 from 3 and the 15-21 from the line are just preseason blips, while his 50% FG shooting while leading the team in attempts is sustainable.  No wonder he is the leader of the dish-first Arenas fanclub.

Mike Miller

  • Lots to like here, especially as his shooting has gotten more aggressive.  The 57.9% TS is just silly (though still behind Gilbert).
  • 3.6 assists/36 seems about right, but the 3 turnovers/36 seems a little high.

Dominic McGuire

  • Still looks like the Dominic that Wages of Wins loves and the rim hates.  21.4% from the floor?  Seriously?

Antawn Jamison

  • Hope the Bionic Gentleman comes back completely healthy.  His stats were already in midseason form.

Andray Blatche

  • 46.9% from the field, a nice number of assists but with too many turnovers, blah, blah, blah.  But now, the good stuff--
  • The team leader in total rebounding.  Third on the team in offensive rebounding (not counting Paul Davis).
  • The team leader in DRating (it was at 96.6 prior to last night's game).
  • Maybe this is The Year We Have Waited For (on defense, anyway-his offensive numbers are much more Bulletproof-like).

DeJuan Blair

Brendan Haywood

  • He's come out sharp with his post moves, hitting 65% of his FG and getting sent to the line at a good rate. 
  • Bring Back Dave Hopla.  25% at the line.
  • Leading the team in offensive boards.  An underrated area in which he was missed last year.

Javale McGee

  • Basically, like last year except even moreso.  Fantastic TS% despite too many dumb jumpshots, swatting at everything (for better and for worse), etc.  Still quite a prospect and still quite rough around the edges.

Fabricio Oberto

  • Looking amazing at Doing the Little Things in limited action.  I can't wait to see how he looks in +/- once the season starts.
  • 10 assists to 2 turnovers!
  • 7 steals to 2 turnovers!
  • Last among the bigs in rebounding.

Paul Davis

  • Is not DeJuan Blair.
                                                                       Player                        +/-          Minutes

F Oberto

+19 110
M Miller +12 119
J McGee +8 126
G Arenas +2 109
C Butler -6 147
A Jamison -9 119
R Foye -10 157
M James -10 89
D Stevenson -11 121
D McGuire -13 92
N Young -16 155
B Haywood -17 93
A Blatche -41 147

 

Some notes (while repeating the caveat that it is very early for +/-):

  • Yes, Oberto is +19, but also of note is that he is +40 as a starter and - 21 coming off the bench. Perhaps his defense and passing brings a spark in combination with the starters that is wasted with the other reserves?
  • Blatche was on the floor for the worst stretch of the Toronto game, the worst stretch of the Detroit game, and enough of the Atlanta game to hurt.  He posted positives in the Memphis and Cleveland games.
  • Several players would be in positive category if it weren't for the Atlanta game.  Foye, Stevenson, Butler, and Haywood are all dragged down by their part in that.
  • I didn't expect to see McGee third on this list, did you?
  • Is Miller lucky to have missed the Atlanta game, or was the game such a wreck in part because of his absence?
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