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Expanded Four Factors Wiz Box for 10/14


While the discussion continues in the comments of the original expanded/four factors stats post, below is the expanded Wizards half of the box score for the 10/14 Wiz-Cavs game and a few comments.   

Star-divide

My blog-editing skills are sub-par, so in addition to providing the box score in the below, here is an html spreadsheet version:  Wizards-Cavaliers 10/14 Preseason Box Score

 

Washington vs Cleveland (10/14/2009) - Preseason

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PLAYER MIN FGM-A 3PM-A Fouls Drawn FTM-A +/- PTS OREB AST TO STL TO Created DREB BLK FGMA-A 3PMA-A PF FTAM-A

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Jamison 7 1-2 0-0 0 0-0 -6 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0-2 0-0 1 2-2

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Blatche 30 6-10 0-0 2 4-4 8 16 0 3 1 2 3 8 0 2-7 1-2 3 2-2

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Oberto 24 2-3 0-0 1 0-0 6 4 0 3 0 3 4 2 0 4-7 0-0 1 0-2

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Arenas 24 4-10 1-2 6 9-11 6 18 0 4 3 0 1 1 1 3-5 1-2 5 3-5

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Butler 24 5-6 0-0 2 2-4 6 12 0 2 2 1 1 2 0 5-7 2-3 3 2-3

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Miller 30 9-12 5-5 5 1-3 9 24 0 3 1 1 1 5 0 5-11 2-4 4 2-5

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Stevenson 24 2-5 2-4 0 0-0 -1 6 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 2-6 1-2 1 2-2

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Foye 24 6-10 0-1 7 9-9 -1 21 0 5 1 2 2 1 0 3-7 1-4 3 2-2

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McGee 24 1-3 0-0 1 0-0 -1 2 1 1 3 1 1 2 1 7-13 0-1 1 0-0

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Young 11 1-3 0-0 0 0-0 2 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1-1 1-1 2 1-1

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Davis 9 0-2 0-0 0 0-0 4 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0-3 0-0 0 0-1

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McGuire 9 1-3 0-0 0 0-0 -7 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 2-3 0-1 0 0-0

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Team 0 4-6 3-4 0-1

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240 38-69 8-12 24 25-31 109 1 23 14 11 22 26 4 38-78 12-24 24 16-26

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7 unforced

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55.1% 66.7% 80.6% 48.7% 50%

Some methodology notes:

Both Rook and I separately tracked the game.  (I did track the Cavs' side as well, but have not had time to present the information.)  For those interested in how hard this is to implement and how much judgment is involved, I'll note that our separate tracking yielded very few differences, even though Rook was not necessarily working from the same set of rules on assigning responsibility for help and ball movement that I was.  The two main differences would be:  (1) he assigned all shots to an individual player, while I used the team category. This mostly was an issue for ball movement leading to wide-open Cavs 3-pt attempts.  There were several that Rook counted against Miller that I counted as "Team" since Miller was legitimately off helping elsewhere and was unable to recover.  (2) I had McGee come out a bit better than Rook did, as there were two made baskets that I counted against the perimeter defender for getting beat, that Rook counted against McGee because McGee did get into the area enough to take a swing at the ball.  The expanded box reflects my approach on both of these, but much thanks for Rook's work tracking and putting together the expanded sheet.

Some game notes:

  • Butler has had very inefficient FG defense in both games, which appears to be a product of drifting too far off his man when his man doesn't have the ball.
  • Blatche has been solid, though perhaps a little limited.  He is still certainly subject to criticism for his technique in some respects, and he probably should be getting to more spots on help (note that McGee essentially doubles Blatche in FG Attempted Against), but he again managed both to generate turnovers and use his length to encourage some misses.
  • McGee is ACTIVE.  Of course, his FGAA number is inflated some by allowing Z to get offensive putbacks too frequently, but still.  Between his active help defense (which is good) and his failure to deny people the ball (which is bad), he ends up involved in a lot of plays.
  •  Not an "expanded" item, but the Four Factors category that scares me with this team is the absence of offensive rebounding and the lack of strength on the defensive boards.  The Cavs had 10 more shot attempts.  I don't think that's a sustainable way to win.  They pulled it off in this game because....
  • This team can shoot jumpshots.  The Cavs' interior defenders all posted few FGAA with relatively low percentages of makes by the Wiz, but the perimeter players got killed.
  • The perimeter rotations need to tighten up.  Allowing 4 uncontested three-pt attempts is not good.  Those resulted in 9 points and probably made this game closer than it should have been.

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One thing I just noticed while looking at the expanded box — FGs all are lumped together. Is that for space reasons? I’d like to see the data formatted more like the standard box score — all FGs in columns and then 3pt shots in their own.

by TheSecretWeapon on Oct 16, 2009 10:52 AM EDT reply actions  

I should mention that I still haven’t settled on my preferred format. I.e., does it work better to put all of the offensive stuff on one side and all the defensive stuff on the other (as in both of the boxes that have run), or to put the two sides of the same coin next to each other?

Also, this one does include some non-FF categories, such as assists and steals, but I’m more inclined to drop them going forward.

I do want to keep +/- in the mix as a commenter on the prior post suggested, as I think it makes for interesting comparison. I’m also thinking of adding a column of “points allowed”, though I’ll need to settle on the half-credit question first.

by bwoodsxyz on Oct 16, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

I like Offense – Defense….

I think you should keep assists and steals… even though steals is a sub-set of TO’s Created. I think looking at the numbers over a long period of time may reveal some interesting conclusions… (ie: Like maybe Blatche, Haywood and Oberto are good at creating non-steal turn overs…. traveling, bad passes, offensive fouls, step on baseline, etc…. and Butler, Arenas and Stevenson are good at creating steals, but little else…..)

The Points allowed is another good suggestion – especially since the spreadsheet I used can automatically calculate that number…. It’s nice to see how many points a player scored, so it might be just as nice to see how many he gave up….. with Point differential possibly being a very important piece in evaluating a player’s worth to the team.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Oct 16, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

bwoods – at some point… you should publish the “rules” ( I know they’re still pretty fluid at this point)…. But some time before the start of the regular season would be ideal…

I will volunteer to track the five “new” stats for as many Wizard’s games as I can….. Between you, me and the rest of the BF gang, we may be able to track the entire year….

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Oct 16, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

I always like having points allowed as a category. Especially once I was able to generate a defensive “usage” stat and a defensive rating. Then, I’d be able to look and see that Player X allowed 15 points, but that he’d been a busy defender and his overall drtg was actually pretty good. It’s not tough to do while splitting credits. My old spreadsheet generated the points allowed stat automatically when I entered the FG and FT data.

by TheSecretWeapon on Oct 16, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Where's the delete button?!

Never mind my previous comment. I just looked again and saw that you have it broken out EXACTLY as I was brilliantly suggesting.

Yes, it IS one of those days.

by TheSecretWeapon on Oct 16, 2009 10:54 AM EDT reply actions  

Some more observations….

Randy Foye was intentionally fouled 4 times in the last minute of the game; which is why his Fouls Drawn is so high. He did take and make the final Wizard’s shot with 30 seconds left after running down the shot clock and then using a high screen to get an open look. That was a very big shot. He also made all 6 of his Free Throws down the stretch as Cleveland fouled him to stop the clock. Plus he scored 21 points but only gave up 9… He had a very good all-around game.

Andray Blatche also had a nice game… with 8 defensive rebounds, scoring 16 while only giving up 7.

Both Butler and McGee had terrible defensive games.

Caron Butler scored 12 points but he gave up 14 points (on 60% eFG) . Plus, with Haywood out, and Jamison lost for most of the game; the team needed someone to help out on the boards – he only grabbed 2 defensive rebounds..

But in my opinion, Javale McGee had the worst game. He only scored 2 points, but gave up 14. He only had 2 defensive rebounds in 24 minutes. He turned the ball over 3 times while causing only 1 TO. But the stats don’t show that he was caught too deep on Offense a number of times and allowed two of the slowest players in the League (Ilgauskas and Shaq) to repeatedly beat him down court – forcing his teammates to cover for him…. Being one of the fastest big men in the game, that should NEVER happen.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Oct 16, 2009 11:54 AM EDT reply actions  

Vale

also needs to learn better body control and positioning on defensive rebounding. Z was able to get him by initiating contact as the ball was coming off the rim, which took Vale’s jumping ability out of the play and allowed earth-bound Z to just snatch the board.

by bwoodsxyz on Oct 16, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

I always like having points allowed as a category. Especially once I was able to generate a defensive “usage” stat and a defensive rating. Then, I’d be able to look and see that Player X allowed 15 points, but that he’d been a busy defender and his overall drtg was actually pretty good. It’s not tough to do while splitting credits. My old spreadsheet generated the points allowed stat automatically when I entered the FG and FT data.

by TheSecretWeapon on Oct 16, 2009 12:02 PM EDT reply actions  

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