Competition Discussion: Memphis Grizzlies

by Mike Prada on Oct 16, 2009 1:00 PM EDT in Team Analysis Comment 8 comments

(Previously: Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Golden State, Houston, Indiana, LA Clippers, LA Lakers).

The season is still not here, but most of the rosters are set, barring the requisite Michael Jordan comeback rumor (just kidding, but only a little). We have an idea where our team stands, but we can't really know unless we discuss everyone else. In that spirit, I'm going to throw up a "competition discussion" thread for each of the other 29 teams over the next couple months or so. We'll go in alphabetical order from A to Z. Today's team: Memphis. Jump to the comments to discuss the Grizzlies and make a prediction on their record.

Last year's record: 24-58 (Pythagorean Record: 26-56)
Playoffs: None

Offensive Rating: 103.5 (28th)
Defensive Rating: 109.5 (21st)
Pace: 90.1 possessions/game (20th)

In: Zach Randolph, Allen Iverson, Hasheem Thabeet, Marcus Williams, Sam Young, DeMarre Carroll, Mike Taylor
Out: Hakim Warrick, Darko Milicic, Quinton Ross, Darius Miles, Greg Buckner

Projected starting lineup: Mike Conley, O.J. Mayo, Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol

Key themes:

Who will pass the ball?
Seriously, who will pass the ball?
I'll say it again. Who. Will. Pass. The. Ball??
Are Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo real impact players, or are they just guys who put up numbers on a bad team?
What exactly will Allen Iverson do in this situation? Will he evolve into an older Jason Terry, or will he completely tank and sabotage the team?
How much will Lionel Hollins use Marc Gasol's high-post passing skills?
How will Lionel Hollins preserve his sanity?
To what degree is Michael Heisley, the owner, calling the shots? How much power, if any, does Chris Wallace have?

I'm sorry, but ... what a dreadful collection of talent. A look at that starting lineup, and it doesn't look so bad on paper. Mike Conley's starting to come into his own, O.J. Mayo knows how to play, Rudy Gay is explosive, Zach Randolph is a great rebounder and post scorer and Marc Gasol is underrated as hell. Then, you bring Allen flippin Iverson off the bench, and Hasheem Thabeet has great defensive potential, etc. etc.

Here's the problem: Conley can't shoot, Mayo can't get to the basket (it's pretty comical, actually, that nobody talks about this), Rudy Gay played selfishly last year even without Randolph and Iverson, Randolph can't pass or defend, and Gasol will be forgotten, while Iverson is too old and Thabeet is too young. Now, you add an inexperienced coach in Lionel Hollins to the mix, and it's tough seeing this end remotely well.

It's a shame, because there's nothing particularly wrong with rebuilding cheaply, as owner Michael Heisley has tried to do. Portland did it for a couple years and Oklahoma City is doing it now, and you'll hardly hear anyone bashing those organizations. In Conley, Mayo, Gay, Gasol and Thabeet, the Grizzies have five pretty good prospects, though none is anywhere close to a franchise player. However, if you're going to rebuild cheaply and through the draft, go all the way. Don't bring in Randolph and Iverson. Don't trade Pau Gasol's long-term deal, only to acquire Randolph's equally long-term deal a year and a half later.

By the midway point in the season, I honestly expect every offensive possession to boil down into an isolation for either Gay, Mayo, Randolph or Iverson. Conley and Gasol will be emergencies, and God bless Thabeet if he actually thinks he'll get any shots. Because those guys (I mean Gay, Mayo, Randolph and Iverson) have some decent scoring ability, the Grizzlies won't totally suck, but they'll be painful to watch and nowhere near their potential, which is too bad, because there are some great Grizzlies bloggers out there who deserve better.

Mike's prediction: 25-57, 5th in the Southwest, 13th in the West.

Team	Mike Prada	JakeTheSnake	Truth About It	Rook6980	bwoodsxyz
Atlanta	47-35	44-38	45-37	45-37	45-37
Boston	57-25	55-27	54-28	44-38	56-26
Charlotte	32-50	32-50	29-53	34-48	37-45
Chicago	39-43	40-42	42-40	40-42	44-38
Cleveland	63-19	60-22	64-18	64-18	61-21
Dallas	49-33	44-38	51-31	50-32	47-35
Denver	53-29	53-29	50-32	52-30	51-31
Detroit	38-44	42-40	41-41	38-44	35-47
Golden State	31-51	16-66	34-48	28-54	28-54
Houston	37-45	41-41	30-52	34-48	48-34
Indiana	33-49	28-54	35-47	39-43	36-46
LA Clippers	43-39	36-46		30-52	31-51
LA Lakers	62-20	59-23		63-19	60-22
Memphis	25-57

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Comments

Should they worry about Thabeet getting any shots?

He’s more of a rebounder/shotblocker, isn’t he? Other than Gasol, it seems to me that they’re focusing mainly on rebounding and defensive skills with Thabeet, Milicic and Hamed Haddadi.

I think bringing in Mike Taylor was a smart move even though he’s another guy who’s more of a scorer than a distributor. Marcus Williams has been racking up the assists in Summer League and the preseason, but he’s been turning the ball over a fair amount as well.

One guy they have on a partially-guaranteed deal that I hope makes the team is Trey Gilder. I fell in love with this guy’s game last year in the D-League. He’s 6’9" and athletic (and also pretty skinny), but he can score, he can rebound pretty well, and he’ll occasionally pick up a fair amount of blocks and steals. He also cut his turnovers way down from where they were in college, so he’s becoming a smarter player as well.

Ridiculous Upside, where developing talent and winning are not mutually exclusive.

by Jon L on Oct 16, 2009 2:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

35-47

I really liked the way Memphis was building their team. They had dumped all their big long-term contracts (Miller, Gasol), and were re-building through the draft. They had one of the lowest payrolls in the League and could use their Cap space to facilitate trades if it was to their advantage. (Remember that we got Javaris Crittenton in a three way trade with New Orleans and Memphis)…

They picked up some nice pieces in Rudy Gay, Mike Conley, OJ Mayo and Marc Gasol…. Once he learns the NBA game, Darrell Arthur might be a good player as well. If Hamed Haddadi can cut down on his turn-overs, he has shown that he can rebound and block shots… exactly what you need in a back-up Center.

They needed another year of suckitude (borrowing one of Mike Prada’s favorite words) , one more year with the young guys playing together; another Lottery pick and perhaps a big Free Agent acquisition, and they could have been right there. Maybe two years, if they couldn’t find the right big FA deal ….

Then they made a mistake by declining to draft a Power Forward; the weakest spot on their roster. They could have traded down with the Knicks (who were drooling over both Rubio and Stephen Curry) and picked Jordan Hill (and maybe even got the Knicks 29th pick as well)…. Instead, they drafted Thabeet – - – - – even though they’ve got a very good starting Center in Marc Gasol.

OK – so perhaps Memphis Management thought that Gasol would not be able to repeat his rookie year performance (12 ppg, 7 rpg, 1 block, 16.74 PER)…. and Thabeet was literally the only center available in the draft – so, I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt here. I don’t agree with the strategy, but OK; I’ll let it slide….

But then they traded Quentin Richardson (expiring $9 Million contract) for Zach Randolph (2-years left, $16 Million, $17 Million) …..

Let me repeat that: They traded a $9 Million expiring contract for Zach Randolph and his 2-year, $33 Million contract……

I’ll let that sink in for a minute…………………………………………………………………..Zach Randolph.

They could have made David Lee an offer. They could have drafted Jordan Hill. They could have played WITHOUT a Power Forward all year, even if they had to play 4 on 5. Anything would have been better than trading for Randolph.

Now – to put a topper on it…… They have added Allen Iverson. Besides Mike Prada’s point that they don’t have anyone that will pass the ball – at least willingly… They have screwed up their team for the next several years, at least. Who ever is making the decisions in Memphis is either wacko, stupid or just plain nuts.

They’ve handcuffed the team’s previously flexible Cap situation. They now have three young Centers and no long-term solution at PF. AND worse yet, there’s enough fire-power in that roster (Iverson, Randolph, Rudy Gay, Mike Conley, and OJ Mayo) to earn a better record than last year. But just barely better …. Just bad enough to miss the Playoffs, but just good enough to miss out on the opportunity for a top-5 pick. Wizard’s fans should know that situation well; it was the standard mode of operation throughout most the last 30 years ….

All around bad decisions since last season ended…. Did I say bad decisions? I meant wacky, loopy, crazy decisions. When did Bozo the Clown become GM / Owner / Decision maker for the Memphis Grizzlies?

35-47, fourth in the Southwest, 10th in the West

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Oct 16, 2009 3:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Out years

They have screwed up their team for the next several years, at least. Who ever is making the decisions in Memphis is either wacko, stupid or just plain nuts.

I disagree — they still have one of the lowest payrolls in the NBA, and have literally $0 committed in 2011/12 (that’s might not turn out to be a good thing, but it’s not like they’re stuck for years with a bad roster). Next year they’ll only have $36M on the books, and almost half of that will be Randolph’s expiring. They have all the cap space in the world after this season to re-sign the players they want to keep, make trades, and go after free agents.

by steadyhand on Oct 16, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps “several” years was too ambiguous – - – perhaps I should have said "They have screwed up their team for the next couple years.

However, that $36 Million you mentioned on the books for next year does not include the Team Options on OJ Mayo ($4.5M), Mike Conley ($4.9M) and Darrell Arthur ($1.1M) – anyone thinking they’ll renounce their rights to those players to save Cap space is nuts.

That $36 Million also does not include Rudy Gay. He’s a restricted FA at the end of this year… the Qualifying Offer (Cap Hold) for Gay is $4.4 Million. They will definitely be spending more than that to keep him – my guess is somewhere starting around $10-$12 Million….

That makes the Grizzlies salary situation next year look like this:

$46.5 Million for 10 players (including Mayo, Conley and Arthur)
They will have to go over the cap to sign Rudy Gay….
Now the’re at $56 – $58 Million

If they didn’t have Randolph’s $17 Million lead weight hanging around their necks – and even if the NBA Salary cap decreases to $50-$54 Million as is expected – they would still have had money under the cap to sign a major Free Agent… and then fill out the roster with their MLE and Minimum contract exceptions….

With Randolph’s contract – they’re potential tax payers next year….

Then – include the fact that had they drafted Jordan Hill, instead of Thabeet… so now Thabeet and Gasol will be taking playing time away from each other… They signed Iverson (who will take playing time away from Conley and Mayo), and the fact that Randolph will take playing time away from Arthur and Gasol….. You have a team full of youngsters, not getting the playing time they would have to develop (see Nick Young).

THAT’s what I meant when I said they’ve screwed up the team for the next several years….. and I should have said “couple” years….

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Oct 16, 2009 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Team Options

Team Options are good things…if the players are worth it, you take the team option (or sign the player to an extension). If not, then the money is freed up. If those players are good enough to justify taking the team option (and re-signing) then the team should be in pretty good shape. When Randolph’s contract becomes an expiring contract next year, doesn’t it have trade value? Or is it too big to move? I would think you might be able to get two respectable but slightly overpaid players for that. It will be interesting to me to see how that plays out. I can see your point, but I still think they’re in okay shape after this year (which might be ugly).

by steadyhand on Oct 16, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My laptop is in the shop, so I don't have my file with all the predictions

But needless to say, things don’t look good. I think it will be a little better than last year, but not by a whole lot.

Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.

by JakeTheSnake on Oct 16, 2009 3:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Complimentary Video

Absolutely, the very BEST video, you could have possibly chosen for this post. That video sums up Zach Randolph so well, and the shot of Isiah afterwards is icing on the cake.

I knew what clip it was before it started, and I’m so happy someone put that to the Amazing Happens format. So classic.

My swag was phenomenal.

by se7en on Oct 16, 2009 4:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cringing

Well, there’s an outside chance this could actually work. Randolph and Iverson are talented players, and I think Thabeet is going to be very disruptive on the defensive end. Conley, Mayo and Gay all have potential to be good players. But there’s so much more potential for a repeat of Isiah’s Knicks. I’ve always been an Iverson fan, so I’m hoping he can adjust his game, but I have my doubts. What’s interesting is that if you never play Randolph and Iverson, this team is still better than last year. Nonetheless, i only see them getting 33 wins this year.

by steadyhand on Oct 16, 2009 6:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs