Competition Discussion: Indiana Pacers
by Mike Prada on Oct 1, 2009 11:07 AM EDT
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Print(Previously: Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Golden State, Houston).
The season is still a ways away, but most of the rosters are set, barring the requisite Michael Jordan comeback rumor (just kidding, but only a little). We have an idea where our team stands, but we can't really know unless we discuss everyone else. In that spirit, I'm going to throw up a "competition discussion" thread for each of the other 29 teams over the next couple months or so. We'll go in alphabetical order from A to Z. Today's team: Indiana. Jump to the comments to discuss the Pacers and make a prediction on their record.
Last year's record: 36-46 (Pythagorean record: 38-44)
Playoffs: None
Offensive Rating: 108.1 17th)
Defensive Rating: 109.2 (19th)
Pace: 96.5 possessions/game (3rd)
In: Dahntay Jones, Earl Watson, Tyler Hansbrough, Luther Head, Solomon Jones
Out: Jarrett Jack, Rasho Nesterovic, Marquis Daniels,
Projected starting lineup: TJ Ford, Dahntay Jones, Danny Granger, Troy Murphy, Jeff Foster
Key themes:
- What can Danny Granger do for an encore?
- How healthy is Mike Dunleavy, and where does he fit in?
- Can the Pacers' new additions actually help them much? Was this really as bad a defensive team as they think?
- TJ Ford lost a lot of time to Jarrett Jack last year and didn't fit in as well as expected. Jack is gone now. What does that mean for Ford? Can he have a better season this time around?
- What can the Pacers expect from their young bigs, Roy Hibbert and Tyler Hansbrough?
- Can Troy Murphy duplicate his excellent season?
- How much will the Pacers actually miss Marquis Daniels, Jarrett Jack and Rasho Nesterovic?
- What's the long-term direction here? Indiana signed Jim O'Brien to a contract extension and have a lot of guys on long-term deals, but is there much potential for improvement?
Indiana was a pretty misunderstood team last year. Conventional wisdom makes you think they were an all-offense, no-defense club -- the Pacers were fifth in the league in points scored (105.1), but 26th in the league in points allowed (106.2). Ah, but this analysis ignores pace, and as we all know, pace changes a lot. The Pacers (ha ha) played at the third-fastest pace this season, which inflated both their points scored and points allowed numbers. Once you adjust for pace, you realize that Indiana was mediocre because, in fact, they were mediocre on both sides of the ball, rather than being excellent offensively and awful defensively.
Unfortunately, based on their offseason moves, it doesn't appear like the Pacers themselves even realize this. Defense was the theme of the Pacers' offseason, as they brought in Dahntay Jones to help their wing defense, signed Earl Watson because of his defensive reputation guarding point guards and drafted hard-working Tyler Hansbrough with the 13th pick in the draft. The Jones move in particular was very foolish, because the Pacers just drafted Brandon Rush the year before because of his defensive reputation. The Pacers also let Rasho Nesterovic walk because of the presence of Hansbrough, even though Nesterovic might have been their best interior defender last year. Not smart, Pacers, not smart.
The good news for Indiana is that Mike Dunleavy is probably coming back and Danny Granger is likely to improve. I've always been a fan of Dunleavy's game. He reminds me of Mike Miller, in fact, with his underrated ability to pass and rebound in addition to shooting. Dunleavy only played 18 games last year and should play much more this time around. However, he won't be ready for the season opener, making you wonder when he will come back. Granger, meanwhile, evolved into one of the top players in the East last year and should continue to be outstanding.
Otherwise ... where are the Pacers going to improve? Granger is great, and TJ Ford should likely be a bit better now that there's no competition for his spot. But Jarrett Jack, Marquis Daniels and Nesterovic are gone, and while you can't blame Indiana for not ponying up the cash to re-sign Jack and even Daniels and Nesterovic, those losses are going to sting, and the Pacers' new additions don't fill them. Unless Roy Hibbert, Hansbrough or Brandon Rush take significant steps, Troy Murphy matches his fantastic season and Dunleavy comes back strong and finds his niche, this team isn't going to improve. The chances of all that stuff happening are pretty unlikely.
Jim O'Brien is a good coach and these guys will play hard every night, so they won't be awful. It's tough to play them at times because they wear you out with their fast pace. At the same time, they were basically a 38-win team last year and are now worse when the rest of the East will likely be better.
Mike's Prediction: 33-49, fourth in the Central, 11th in the East.
| Team | Mike Prada | JakeTheSnake | Truth About It | Rook6980 | bwoodsxyz |
| Atlanta | 47-35 | 44-38 | 45-37 | 45-37 | 45-37 |
| Boston | 57-25 | 55-27 | 54-28 | 44-38 | 56-26 |
| Charlotte | 32-50 | 32-50 | 29-53 | 34-48 | 37-45 |
| Chicago | 39-43 | 40-42 | 42-40 | 40-42 | 44-38 |
| Cleveland | 63-19 | 60-22 | 64-18 | 64-18 | 61-21 |
| Dallas | 49-33 | 44-38 | 51-31 | 50-32 | 47-35 |
| Denver | 53-29 | 53-29 | 50-32 | 52-30 | 51-31 |
| Detroit | 38-44 | 42-40 | 41-41 | 38-44 | 35-47 |
| Golden State | 31-51 | 16-66 | 34-48 | 28-54 | 28-54 |
| Houston | 37-45 | 41-41 | 34-48 | 48-34 | |
| Indiana | 33-49 | 28-54 | 35-47 | 39-43 | 36-46 |
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What a mediocre mess
Having been a big fan of theirs during the Miller-Davis-Davis-Smits teams, this is frustrating.
Starting with the 38-win pythagorean from last year and, again, just looking at WS:
Watson for Jack would cost 4 wins. Watson is way overratedly underrated and had an awful year last year. He is a small-ish, 30-ish guard. Brilliant. Nesterovic really didn’t give them all that much. IF Hibbert can stay on the court he could probably be a decent replacement. But the man averaged 7.7 PF per 36 (!!!!!!), so that’s a huge if. A completely healthy Granger/Murphy combo would be worth a couple more wins. Luther Head had a lost year in 08-09, but if he can bounce back to prior form, he could be worth a couple of wins vs Daniels. If, on the other hand, Jones gets Daniels’ minutes, that’s all just pointless reshuffling.
Put me down for an uninspiring 36-44 repeat. The sad thing is I just don’t see where this team even has hope of being better than .500 in the foreseeable future.
should have said 36-46, obviously
Also, if Granger or Murphy or Ford miss any significant time, they’ll be considerably worse.
What about the return of Dunleavy ?
Your WS calculation (starting from 38 wins last year, when Dunleavy didn’t play) didn’t take him into consideration?
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
For consistency, I’ve been using the WS from basketball reference. (Incidentally, I was late commenting on the Rockets, but that one really highlighted that Roland Rating vs WS can lead to a wildly different conclusion about a team. The Rockets could be an interesting test case.) By the way, using WS for these is more a reflection of my laziness than a preference for them over Roland Rating. Entirely using RR would have been a pain.
In WS, he wasn’t very good last year, with 0.5 WS in 500 minutes. At that productivity, he’s little better than Daniels was and Jones/Rush are, and so doesn’t make a difference. I guess that could have been a fluke and he could bounce back to his career best 9.0 level the season before, with the best case scenario that it takes the place of Jones/Rush. But, he’s already missing at least the first month with a more-problematic-than-expected knee injury, so even if he plays at the same level eventually he’s not going to do better than 6 or 7. And that season was already out of line with his prior production. And if he crowds out any Granger playing time, that’s bad.
So, to summarize, if he comes back completely healthy at the beginning of December, playing as he did in 07-08, and taking all of the Jones/Rush minutes, he could help them get to .500. I assumed that won’t happen—that he’ll be a 5.0WS/yr kind of guy only playing 3/4 of the season max and not really healthy for even part of that.
I think 3/4’th of a year of Mike Dunleavy is worth 3-4 games…. He won’t take Granger’s minutes – most likely taking the Starting SG spot from, probably Rush. (I don’t see Dahntay Jones as a starter, more like a limited minutes defensive specialist). Rush can go back to being the backup….
If you’ve ever seen Dunleavy play, you know he doesn’t need his knee to be completely healthy to be effective; at least offensively. – so if he comes back in December, I expect him to return to a 2006 form at least (15 per, WS around 5.5 or 6)….
But you’re absolutely right about Hibbert… His foul rate was astronomical – and it was even higher in games in which he started (8.78 per 36 minutes)….
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
After the historic brawl at the Palace, Reggie Miller’s retirement, trade demands from Artest, an incident where Stephen Jackson fired a gun into the air in a night club, and O’Neal’s wish to be traded….. Bird has done a workmanlike job to remake the Pacers in the last several years.
Since “the brawl”, every player has been replaced by players that were either acquired or drafted by Larry Bird, except Jeff Foster; and Bird gave him an extension last year.
Danny Granger became an All-Star last season. Mike Dunleavy should be ready to go after sitting out most of last season following knee surgery. (late note: Dunleavy has a ligament strain, and may not start practicing until November). Troy Murphy is a compentent defender, good rebounder and a three-point threat. Center Roy Hibbert (a player I desperately wanted the Wizards to draft) showed marked improvement, and wrested the starting job away from Rasho Nesterovic half way through last year. With Hibbert entrenched as the starting Center, Jeff Foster can take his rugged game to the Power Forward spot. Hibbert and Foster played well in tandem last year.
Losing Jarrett Jack and Marquis Daniels will hurt a little, but continuing improvement from Hibbert – and particularly getting Dunleavy back should help offset those losses.
They added two nice role players in Dahntay Jones and Earl Watson. Jones gives them a tough perimeter defender, while Watson will backup T.J. Ford (and fill in nicely when, as always happens, Ford gets injured). And Watson can play significantly better defense than Ford.
Despite being panned by the Indiana fans, the Hansborough pick was, in my opinion, an excellent one. Hansborough brings a toughness inside that, along with Foster and Hibbert, will make the Pacers a better, more balanced team. I won’t be surprised if the ACC’s all-time leading scorer is able to work his way into the regular rotation by mid-year.
The Pacers should be able to shoot from downtown, with Dunleavy, Murphy and Granger all skilled shooters. And they should still be able to run, with TJ Ford leading the break and Granger and Rush filling the lanes. But they’ll have a hard time against teams that slow them down into a half-court game. They’ll also have difficulties establishing anything down low; at least until their young bigs develop further (Hibbert, Josh McRoberts and Hansborough).
So, I like the steady pace for improvement that Bird has set for the club, but at some point, he’s going to have to add that last piece. The way the Pacers salaries are set up, it looks like 2011 will be the year that Bird goes looking for a major Free Agent to play with Granger. In the meantime, I expect to see about the same from Indiana this year as last.
39-43, Third in the Central, Tenth in the East
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Wow so you think the Pacers close
I think they are in the mediocre purgatory. I like Granger (a fantasy basketball beast), I like Hibbert and I like T.J. Ford if he can stay healthy. Hansborough where they drafted him was a grievous error in my book. The Pacers should blow it up and start over with Granger, Rush and Hibbert.
"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck
by George Templeton on Oct 2, 2009 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions
They’re stuck in “close enough” to sniff the playoffs – but not good enough to get there, and even if everything goes their way during the year, and they win a few extra games and sneak into the Playoffs – not good enough to advance….
And they’ll stay that way until 2011 – with only the incremental improvements that the development of Hibbert, Rush and Hansborough can give them….
In 2011, they’ll have enough money to throw at a major FA -
Until then, they’re Lottery bound, but not bad enough to get a top-5 pick (unless the ping pong balls fall in an extremely lucky way)…
Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......
Really frustrating
Like bwoods, I was a big fan of the Pacers until Miller the double whammy of the brawl and Miller’s retirement. They were, in fact, my team until I was brainwashed by this blog. They are now, among the most unwatchable teams in the league (despite Granger). 35 wins would be a minor miracle.
Damn .... this should go in some testimonial section ...
They were, in fact, my team until I was brainwashed by this blog.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.
I hope to see Hansbrough do well
He is an elite athlete, but I feel like he is on the wrong team right now. Pairing him with Hibbert could make for a great combination in the future. Throw Granger in there and it good be a team that upsets a few teams.
You have to hate losing more than you love winning.
Change are minor
Dunleavy being healthy for most of the season would be a big plus, but that’s doubtful at this point. The most interesting thing about this team is to see whether Hansborough’s game translates to the NBA. I’m expecting 35-47 from this team.
Jim O'Brien will have to do a helluva job to ...
….Get this team to 35 wins. And they will get there on the back of Granger.
But with support floundering (for some reason in the Hoosier state), this team has a very big uphill climb until they even sniff the playoffs.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It.net and Bullets Forever.
rush looked good at end of last year
he’ll probably start right?
by DarrellWalkerFan on Oct 2, 2009 11:49 AM EDT reply actions
28-54
I think losing Jack will cause them to stumble coming out of the gates. They’ll get the ship righted, but it will be too late to make a run for the playoffs or match last year’s record.
Bullets Forever: A blog dedicated to the Washington Wizards with analysis, commentary, and more YouTube videos than your eyes can handle.
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