Yay! More veterans!

by Mike Prada on Jan 14, 2009 10:50 AM EST in Draft

I kid, only slightly, but Michael Lee brings up a point about this year's eventual lottery draft pick that I hadn't considered in depth.

When Grunfeld committed to Arenas and Jamison last summer, he had no plans of adding the huge, guaranteed salary of a high lottery pick in 2009. The draft pick offers opportunity, though, especially if the Wizards want to catch up with division rivals Orlando and Atlanta, who have surpassed them this season.

There is the potential to add a high draft choice to their nucleus, but if the Wizards don't land the top pick, or even a top three pick, Grunfeld will have to strongly consider repeating what he did in 2004 and package the draft pick with an undesirable contract or two and add some veteran help to a suddenly aging core. Next season, the Wizards could potentially have Arenas going on 28, a 29-year-old Butler, a 33-year-old Jamison and Brendan Haywood going on 30.

I hated the idea last year, and I'm not sure I like it now that we're talking about an even higher pick. This seems like the exact type of quick-fix thinking that has plagued this franchise for years, going back to the Hamilton-for-Stackhouse trade, the Wallace-for-Strickland trade and the Moses Malone acquisition.

On the other hand, perhaps there is merit to the idea if we get stuck with, say, the fifth pick. We have a dichotomy of sorts on the roster between our core guys and our young'ins, and that schism has become ever more prevalent in the last couple of years (my theory is because of Arenas' injury; he could mingle with both parties). Do we really want to add to that schism when a proven veteran that can help right away may be available?

The other question is, who exactly would that veteran be? Would you trade a lottery pick for Gerald Wallace? Tracy McGrady? Chris Kaman? Marcus Camby? Who do we even mean?

Anyway, food for thought. I'll be back later.

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Is Michael Lee writing about the NBA?

Rookies in the NBA — even lottery picks — don’t get “huge” contracts. They get fairly small contracts by NBA standards, with salaries determined by the rookie salary scale. Lottery pick rookies who play well are significantly underpaid while they’re on the rookie deal.

by TheSecretWeapon on Jan 14, 2009 11:48 AM EST reply actions

But...

He may mean that taking a pick out of the top 3 means taking a guy who’s probably not an impact player. By the time we develop him, that rookie deal will be up and we won’t be able to hang on to him without either dumping arenas or jamison or not re-signing tuff juice. So where’s the team want to go?

I say trade the pick anyway, we’ve already shown we’ll just waste high draft picks on awful players or fail to develop decent draft picks while they are with us.

by five by five on Jan 14, 2009 11:58 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah

I have no clue where that line came from. I doubt he’s ignorant on the NBA salary scale, so maybe it was just a slip that happens in blog entries.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jan 14, 2009 12:06 PM EST up reply actions

Or

He’s saying that Ernie didn’t anticipate the team in the lottery, so the difference in salary between the third pick and the 18th pick is what may be an issue.

Either way, it’s dumb.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jan 14, 2009 12:07 PM EST up reply actions

I'm probably missing something here

But JaVale McGee is making around 1.4 million this season and OJ Mayo is making about 3.8 million. For a team that’s as close to the cap as the Wizards, $2.4 million is a lot of dough, especially if the cap goes down this season. I suppose the rookie contracts would go down accordingly if the cap shrinks, but still, that seems like a big issue to me. Granted, I’m not sure how trading for a veteran would change that, but I get the feeling that EG is going to have to make some kind of bad move to get more cap room either way.

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by Jake Whitacre on Jan 14, 2009 1:22 PM EST up reply actions

What's dumb is

Dealing away the fifth pick simply for money issues. It’s like telling the Bulls they should have traded out of Derrick Rose because his rookie salary is more than what they expected from the 9th pick (and they were close to the tax).

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jan 14, 2009 4:11 PM EST up reply actions

By "fifth pick"

I mean “Top 5 pick”

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jan 14, 2009 4:12 PM EST up reply actions

I guess "huge" is relative....

If the Wizards were lucky enough to obtain the #1 pick, the first year salary would be $4.1 Million. Add to that the Luxury Tax implications, and I guess you could say the impact to the Wizards could be “huge”.

1st Round draft selections are paid salaries based on a sliding scale, depending on draft position:
http://www.nbpa.org/cba_exhibits/exhibitB.php
(scroll down to the 2009-2010 scale)

Taking on that kind of contract ($4.1M) would put the Wizards over the salary cap – so the question that Michael Lee presents is VERY valid…

Do you go over the Salary Cap to sign a guy like Ricky Rubio or Blake Griffin? – - – Or do you package the pick with expiring contracts and trade for a veteran that can help right now.?

My opinion? This is a weak draft, with only two impact players available – If the Wizards can’t get either Rubio or Griffin – I think they should package expiring contracts (Thomas, James, etc…) with the pick to obtain a veteran….

My choices would be to trade for defense: AK47 or Marcus Camby (secondary choices, Gerald Wallace with Raja Bell , or Shane Battier)

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Jan 14, 2009 12:13 PM EST up reply actions

I agree with Rook – Lee brings up a valid question, that Grunfeld is likely to consider.

That said I think it’s too early to tell. If it’s a #1 pick and the Wizards can get Griffin, well they better get a damn good vet in return if they’re gonna trade that pick. There seems to be a drop-off after that so the trade idea then looks more enticing. Grunfeld will have to evaluate whether the future is with Arenas-Butler-Jamison-Haywood or with the crop of young guys he’s brought in. If the future is now (or I mean next year), trade for the veteran. If the future is later, cherish the high draft pick.

I’d like to see how the college players develop over the course of the year before evaluating them. It’d also be nice to see Arenas play a little bit this year to see what we can expect from him next year. How do the Wizards young players develop over the remainder of the season is another question. And what kind of veteran can the Wizards get in return? I’m skeptical that it’ll be as easy this time to pick up a Jamison quality player.

Over at Wizards Insider someone brought up the idea of packaging Blatche with the Wizards expiring contracts to get a veteran in return. I like Blatche, and don’t think the Wizards should give him away, but that also seems to be a reasonable option (it’s good to have options!). If the Wizards can win the lottery and draft Griffin, I see a very crowded front court with Haywood-Jamison-McGee-Blatche-Griffin (or another big-man like Monroe). How do you split time between veterans and young guys?

by Johnnie Futbol on Jan 14, 2009 1:34 PM EST up reply actions

I have no confidence that Blatche will ever...

pan out to someone we can depend on……I wouldn’t mind pawning him off on someone who still believes in his potential.

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by Kyle Weidie on Jan 15, 2009 11:43 AM EST up reply actions

The top of this draft looks pretty good

and I would say it looks better than the top of 2004 (although I thought Devin Harris would be good, I didn’t think he would be this good) so as someone who is already counting the days until the NBA draft I hope that doesn’t occur.

"Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home." --- Daffy Duck

by George Templeton on Jan 14, 2009 1:31 PM EST reply actions

Difficult to say at this point.

I wouldn’t trade for Camby, that’s for sure. He’s declined far too much at this point. Maybe T-Mac, maybe Emeka Okafor (though I’d have to think a lot about his salary). Not Wallace, not AK-47.

If we land a top-3 pick, we keep it for sure. Top 5 and I’d still rather make a pick, unless a KG-to-the-Celtics scenario presents itself where we could package a high pick, expiring contracts, and some young talent (Blatche or Young) for an absolute monster of a player.

Honestly, this team is going to need to learn to draft well at some point, and that’s supposed to be Grunfeld’s X-factor! We still don’t know the depth of this draft class (who many people had Derrick Rose seriously on their radar in January last year), and in the long run, drafting or trading well is the only way to build a contender.

by sierradave on Jan 14, 2009 4:02 PM EST reply actions

many people had Derrick Rose seriously on their radar in January last year

Well, Draftexpress had Rose listed as a top 3 pick since at least early 2007…
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Derrick-Rose-1068/mock-draft-history/

Same with Michael Beasley:
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Michael-Beasley-605/mock-draft-history/

And OJ Mayo:
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/O.J.-Mayo-238/mock-draft-history/

For the really top guys (top 5), pretty much everyone knows who they are… There may be some shuffling, but the top 5 guys are pretty well known, even 12-18 months before the actual draft.

Blake Griffin, James Hardin, Ricky Rubio (if he declares), Greg Monroe, Hasheem Thabeet, maybe Brandon Jennings – - – and perhaps someone will take a chance on Jrue Holiday as a top 5 pick – - – those are the guys this year…. and I’d be willing to bet, they’ll still be the guys on draft day.

There’s a big drop off after Griffin, Hardin and Rubio, talent wise. This is NOT a very good draft year; but those top 3 guys have the potential (read: potential) to be starters in the League – and perhaps, if they work hard, they could be All-Star caliber. So the Wizards better hope for a kind bounce from the Ping Pong balls, otherwise they’ll be getting a mediocre 1st round talent.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Jan 14, 2009 5:39 PM EST reply actions

aaaaaaand that's what I like about this blog

Beasley and Mayo I was hearing about all year. Rose not until after March Madness. Then again, I don’t follow college basketball. I stand corrected.

by sierradave on Jan 14, 2009 6:50 PM EST up reply actions

did we forget mitch richmond

how was ‘the rock’ not the first name listed for veterans we should’ve never traded for… at least strickland gave us some good years——and tracy murray a black eye

by rzawrecktah on Jan 14, 2009 11:40 PM EST reply actions

Forgot about him

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jan 15, 2009 10:20 AM EST up reply actions

I had blanked him out of my memory

Drats, now he’s back

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Jan 15, 2009 10:24 AM EST up reply actions

I believe it will be either-or if we trade the pick

Either we’re dumping contracts, or we’re getting a veteran who could help…not necessarily both.

(sure there could be some combination, but not one that we all would consider desirable)

But with the weakness of this draft (plus, it seems like there’s been a trend of declining value in draft picks anyway), I doubt we will be able to package a high pick for BOTH a contract dump and a vet contributor.

Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net

by Kyle Weidie on Jan 15, 2009 11:46 AM EST reply actions

And

I think you underestimate the value of the Wizard’s expiring contracts.

Think Kwame for Gasol….

Even if you think that was a once-in-a-lifetime move by a GM that’s a complete idiot….

How about Camby? Or the trades that New York and Jersey have made to obtain expiring contracts?

As I’ve stated before, the closer we get to the 2010 trade deadline, the more valuable the Wizard’s expiring contracts will become.

Bullets Forever - where "Dagger ! " happens......

by Rook6980 on Jan 15, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions

I would be interested in what type of trade value that pick has, both now when it’s uncertain and later when the team knows where the pick is.

I’d also be interested in how much value the pick could be worth when used in conjunction not only with the role players, but with one of Jamison/Butler/Arenas. The team might be able to get something very interesting going on there. Perhaps trade Jamison+pick for a younger big man and stretch the window out in a big way.

I don’t know …. just something I’ve been pondering for a few days

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by NBR on Jan 18, 2009 12:34 AM EST reply actions

Are there any players in the league

That are worth more than Jamison + a top-five pick?

None of them are actually being traded, that’s for sure.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Jan 18, 2009 10:21 AM EST up reply actions

If the pick were traded now, with the possibility of it being the top pick or top two pick, I think that package could test some team’s resolve on those hard to acquire top talents.

http://nbaroundtable.wordpress.com/

by NBR on Jan 18, 2009 11:51 AM EST up reply actions