Why I'm Scared, And Why I'm Not: Miami

by Jake Whitacre on Sep 3, 2008 10:12 PM EDT in Off Topic

In the coming weeks, I'm going to try (emphasis on try) and analyze our competitors in the Southeast Division and take a look at what makes them dangerous in the coming season, and what helps us sleep easier at night. This is kind of like the community projections except that:

A) No predictions on records will be made.

B) This series will be conducted in bullet point form as opposed to paragraph form.

C) These only pertain to the Southeast Division.

D) These will generally be much more poorly written than the Community Projections.

But other than that, they're kind of the same...but not really.

Why I'm scared:

The Heat's top draft pick, sporting the always in style Fresh Prince look.

Dwyane Wade is back. I'm not just talking about recovering from injury, either. I mean, Dwyane Wade is back. If you saw his performance at the Olympics, then you know what I'm talking about. I know there's some weaknesses on that team, but guys like him can cover a multitude of weaknesses.
I know that there were differing views on Michael Beasley going into the draft, but there's no doubt in my mind that he's going to produce. How he's going to produce and in what ways are up for debate, but he can't be any worse than Luke Jackson.
Not only is Wade back, but he's back and he's angry. Lovely.
I'm not sure if the Heat plan on using Marion as a small forward or a power forward, an offensive focal point or a defensive stopper, as a cornerstone for their franchise or trade bait. And quite frankly, not knowing how the Matrix is going to be used this year scares me.

Why I'm not scared:

Of the 13 players on the Heat's roster, 6 of them have one year or less playing experience. That scares me down the road, but not so much right now.
The Fringe Festival!
Miami's new coach, Eric Spoelsta, is younger than Alonzo Mourning. I mean, Zo is a classy enough guy that it shouldn't be a problem, but it's got to be a little awkward at least, right?
Super Mario has been on the hunt for mushrooms, and I'm not talking about the 1 UP kind.
The inevitable "Nobody likes me" poutfest from Shawn Marion.
We all know that if D-Wade falls down seven times, he'll stand up eight times. But if he's reaching for a steal...

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Right now, I see the Heat finishing in the 7-10 range in the East. They've got three very talented players, but too many holes to make a serious run right now. Of course, people had similar criticisms of Boston last year, and we saw what happened there. Granted, there's significant talent gap between Boston's Big 3 and Miami's Big 3, but if this team can come together like Boston did, they could return to the elite a lot quicker than anyone is expecting.

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Comments

I think you summed it up pretty well

Their top three is awesome, but after that, they have problems. Scary eventually, but not quite yet.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Sep 4, 2008 11:05 AM EDT reply actions

What killed us versus the Heat....

Always seemed to be size (Shaq) and his defensive abilities in keeping the Wiz hesitant about work in the lane.

In steps Jamaal Magloire and I commence with the laughing.

Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net

by Kyle Weidie on Sep 4, 2008 11:41 AM EDT reply actions

Are they really all that scary?

Wade is a top player, but I don’t think he can carry a team. Don’t discount the incredible weight that was NOT on his shoulders when Shaq was around. That will be squarely on him now. I’ve always felt Marion was helped tremendously by the system in Phx. Bz is a rookie.

Not too scared.

by MR on Sep 4, 2008 12:07 PM EDT reply actions

Wade carried Miami to the 2006 title

Shaq was a role player that year. Remember how Erick Dampier shut him down in the first two games of the finals?

Also, Marion was damn good before D’Antoni arrived in Phoenix.

You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.

by Mike Prada on Sep 4, 2008 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t remember Dampier shutting down Shaq, but I do remember Wade being their best player. Point taken. But my point is that a player like Shaq (as if there has ever been another player like him) commands so much attention, takes so much heat, that it allows a player like Wade to do what he does. I’m curious to see what Wade can do with so much focus on him.

by MR on Sep 4, 2008 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Inside

The Heat have no inside presence at all… As a matter of fact, they’re talking about starting 6’8" Udonis Haslem at Center.

Question is: Will Magloire be reinvigorated and return to the form he showed in New Orleans, or is he an overweight, out-of-shape bench warmer? After the trade to Portland, he showed practically no elevation. Like, after only 8 years in the league, his legs are shot.

by Rook6980 on Sep 4, 2008 12:15 PM EDT reply actions

The latter

Magloire is washed up, I’m surprised he isn’t washed out.

Miami could still make the playoffs, because there just aren’t eight impressive teams in the east. But this is still a rebuilding year for them. More pieces, I get scared. Not now though.

Also, SUFFER HEAT, SUFFER!!! (Old hatreds die hard)

by sierradave on Sep 4, 2008 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, we’ve already seen Wade play for an extended period of time without Shaq.

In 2006-2007, Shaq checked out for almost half the year with one of his usual leg injuries.

I forget exactly what the Heat’s record was without Shaq during that period, but they were always within 5 games of .500 with Wade playing at an MVP level. Not bad when you consider that Wade was the only player in the rotation capable of getting his own shot consistently.

Wade is no different than Kobe before he got improved Bynum / Gasol. No matter how great your 2-guard is, your team will hover at or below .500 unless you have at least one good sidekick and some decent role players.

by Heatfan318 on Sep 4, 2008 10:43 PM EDT reply actions

As for how we’ll do this year, I think the 8 seed is possible. But everything has to break right for us. Our center and PG positions are too awful to allow anything better than that (unless we swing some sort of Marion trade).

by Heatfan318 on Sep 4, 2008 10:46 PM EDT reply actions

I'll agree to this.....

Good luck on everything breaking right….hasn’t happened around here in ages.

Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net

by Kyle Weidie on Sep 5, 2008 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions

“almost half the year” —that’s exactly what I’m talking about. Can he step up and shoulder a team as the #1 guy all year?

by MR on Sep 4, 2008 11:26 PM EDT reply actions

Well, I don’t see why not.

I brought up the fact that he carried his team for almost half a year because almost half a year is a significant sample size. That was no fluke. He played the best stretch of regular season basketball in his career when Shaq was gone in 2006-2007. His scoring, assists, and PER were never higher.

I mean, yea, we can speculate if he could carry a team for 82 games.

However, the evidence that we have so far suggests that he can. The wild card, of course, is his health.

by Heatfan318 on Sep 5, 2008 1:20 AM EDT reply actions