Juan Dixon is not Roger Mason
by Mike Prada on Sep 23, 2008 9:29 PM EDT
in Free Agency
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PrintJuan Dixon works, I guess. He's played here before, he knows the system, he's a local guy and he'll get everyone waxing about his "heart" and his "intangibles." And hey, he once scored 35 points in a playoff game in a series we actually won.
But I'm still not feeling all the love about the news. Not that Ernie shouldn't have signed the guy; we needed backcourt help, it's a partially-guaranteed deal and there aren't exactly a zilllion better option out there. At the very least, it provides insurance in case Dee Brown sucks or in case there's another injury to the backcourt.
The problem is that I'm still struggling to find exactly what Dixon adds to the club. He essentially replaces Roger Mason, but the only things the two have in common are that they're shortish combo guards from local colleges. Otherwise, they aren't anywhere near the same player. Mason scores incredibly efficiently, doesn't turn it over and only sometimes takes ill-advised pull-up jumers; Dixon scores incredibly inefficiently, turns it over a lot more and never found a shot he didn't like. When Dixon is "on," he'll score 35 points in a playoff game. When he's "off," the rest of the team doesn't get enough shots and Dixon will shoot himself out of the game. There's a reason his college teammate Steve Blake has stuck in the NBA more effectively than Dixon.
Table and more analysis after the jump.
| Dixon 04/05 | Mason 07/08 | Young 07/08 | |
| Pts/36 | 17.3 | 15.3 | 17.4 |
| eFG% | 47 | 55.2 | 48.1 |
| TS% | 51.8 | 57.3 | 52.7 |
| AstR | 18.4 | 13.2 | 9.6 |
| TOR | 12.2 | 9.9 | 15 |
| UsgR | 23.1 | 18.9 | 24.9 |
2004/05 was clearly the best year of his career, and Mason and Young still provide more in many of the areas we need. Mason clearly has Dixon smashed -- Dixon scored more, but only by using many more possessions -- but even a 22-year old Young compares to the best Dixon has to offer. The key stat on here is usage rate, which only speaks to Dixon's poor shot selection and over-dribbling. Dixon scored a lot, but used so many possessions to do it, which is really bad on a team that'll likely be a slow-paced club without Gilbert Arenas. Fewer possessions=fewer possessions that can afford to be wasted.
Think about it this way: we complain all the time that Nick Young needs to stop breaking the offense, improve his passing and cutting and stop taking so many damn fadeaways. In signing Dixon, we're getting basically the exact same type of player, except one who's older, smaller and four years removed from his best season. Dixon may push Young, sure, but the idea is to sign someone who plays differently from Young so that Young can learn what he needs to do to play. If Dixon gets minutes over Young, Young's going to think that the key to playing more is to shoot a lot and break the offense. (Or he'll try to change his alma mater, either one).
The one advantage Dixon gives compared to Young is his ability to play the one position in the Princeton. Dixon's a much better passer and doesn't turn it over as much as Young does. This is true, but the skills Dixon provides by playing the point guard -- energy, pushing the ball, full-court defense -- are the exact same skills Dee Brown provides. If Dixon beats out Brown, that's nice, but we still have the same situation on our hands.
And God help me if Eddie tries to play Dixon and Young at the same time. Seriously, this should never happen. Nobody else will ever see the ball.
So really, this signing reaks of sentimentality. I'm not upset it happened, because it's nice to just have another body in the backcourt after Arenas' injury, but I wish we could have found somebody else. Someone like Quinton Ross, who's a dreadful offensive player, but at least plays strong defense, uses almost no possessions and can provide Young a nice example. He could have even played small forward, which would have been a better idea than signing somebody who has played exactly one halfway-decent season in his career (and a shady character to boot). But questioning DerMarr Johnson is a post for another time.
Either way, don't expect too much from this signing. It'd be best if Dixon barely played and instead functioned as an aggressive practice player to push the regulars. Knowing how Eddie Jordan works, though, I wouldn't be holding my breath about that. I fully expect to write at least four "Play Nick Young, goddammit" posts this season.
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I wouldn't count on too many "Play Nick Young, goddammit" posts
Aside from a good game in LA last year (where he missed the clutch shot), and some cherry picking dunks, I am not seeing this huge upside that everyone wants to point too. If I hear “he can get his own shot”, one more time, I am going to jump off of a bridge. That doesn’t mean crap, if the shot doesn’t go in. Nick looked like ass in the summer league against sub-par competition, where as Dixon has actually done something in the league, albeit in a support role.
The issue is that Young is already as good as Dixon
Young did do something last year…he did as much as Dixon did four years ago.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
no certainty da Bust (aka Nick Young) makes the team
-Eddie on Nick Young: " . . . We want him to be a better player . . . we do have other guys."
Yes, they do have other guys. Now they have another other guy.
want to get it in before I get banned
Just a matter of time.
Next stop for Nick Young: a match-up with Mahmoud Abdul Rauf in the Saudi Arabia league.
Not exactly
I can’t speak for Prada….but I don’t think having outrageous opinions will get you banned….insulting others will, and you don’t do that, at least to my knowledge.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net
Please
I’m not banning you. You don’t get banned for having an opinion, but nobody wants to hear you repeat yourself over and over again. We get it, you don’t like Nick Young’s game and think he has no future with the club. No need to say it again and again in a thread about Juan Dixon.
That’s called relentless negativity and it’s against community standards.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Going overboard
I think some folks around here are going overboard. Dixon is an excellent signing. He is combo guard who can actually score. He not only has a lot of NBA experience, but a lot of experience with our rather complicated offense. Although he gambles too much for my liking, he plays some pretty good defense.
Without Gil’s surgery we don’t make this signing. But what we need with him out for the beginning of the season is someone to step in for a few months and get 5-15 minutes a game (depending on how Young looks). Dixon can do that without having to experience a learning curve.
On the subject of Nick—there IS a certainty that he makes the team. Come on, the guy is in his second year. He had a good not great transition to the NBA and the Princeton. He had a lousy summer league. You don’t give up on a guy that fast. Calling him a bust is absurd.
We’ve got three guys who need to fill in a little heavily than we’d like while Arenas is out, essentially what Mason did last year. I’m going to guess that at least one of them steps forward. We don’t need an all-star, just a fill in. Remember that Roger Mason Jr. was nobody’s first choice at this time one year ago.
good post
prada’s stats do convey that juan pretty much brings the same thing to the team that nick young does, so it is a bit of a duplication. however, young looked shaky at the end of the year and shaky during summer league, and if he struggles with confidence, it’s good to have dixon around at least as somewhat of a more known quantity, even if that quantity isn’t that great.
the thing i don’t like, personally, is that this smacks of something done to sell tickets. i’m not a fan of those moves.
by DarrellWalkerFan on Sep 24, 2008 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I dont think its a ticket thing.
I see it more as a move to bring in additional character. I’m almost positive that Abe is more comfortable with Juan Dixon than DeMarr Johnson.
I’m not upset with the Dixon signing. I’d like to see Coach Jordan establish a Bruce Bowen type role with him. Of course he can’t be Bowen on defense, I’m talking about offense. We should always have enough scorers on the floor so that he doesn’t have to force shots. I seem to remember that the second unit Juan Dixon was leading in his previous stint here was awful. He should have plenty of guys taking the pressure off of him. If he is out there with Young, Blatche, Thomas, and Brown – he shouldnt feel the need to shoot.
Watching Dixon through college and the pros…his shot is so much nicer when he is set. There is no question about his range. With a deeper bench, I’d run Dixon out there and just tell him to set screens and wait in the corner a la Bruce Bowen.
Personally, Im glad to have him back. You never know what guys are going to do when the play for their hometown team. This is a completely different situation than the one he was playing in before.
If that's the Dixon we get
I agree, it’ll be awesome. But he’s never been that in his career.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Juan Redux
This was a good signing under the circumstances, and hopefully we will be pleasantly surprised.
You have to consider that his first time around with the Wizards, Juan Dixon was in a far different place than he is now… local legend, recent NCAA Finals MVP, his own hat (I just dug mine out of our closet here in Warsaw) and jersey (my son has a signed one in DC) in the concession stands and sporting goods stores, yadda, yadda… basically he was trying to shoot his way to a role as an NBA starter and possibly a star. That’s why he left for Portland in the first place.
There’s nothing wrong with going for the gold in any sport (or other career path), but equally there is much right with gaining enough maturity to realize when that is not going to happen, and to accept gracefully the role of a lesser but still important contributor to one’s team. And this is the sometimes painful process that Juan Dixon has been going through.
Juan Dixon knows he is coming back home as a fourth or fifth guard, probably not even a rotation player. His old number 3 belongs to Caron Butler and may one day hang in the rafters with Caron’s name on it, not Juan’s.
But that does not mean that Juan Dixon cannot be a very productive player, both in the absence of Gilbert Arenas and upon Gil’s (early and successful, one hopes) return.
Although Dixon is undersized for a 2-guard (or shoot-first point), he IS an NBA-level talent, he has unquestioned heart and character, and he WILL have the support of his hometown fans. This could wind up being a nice thing.
nice post
couldn’t have said it better.
by five by five on Sep 24, 2008 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not worried about Dixon accepting his role
I’m worried about Eddie creating a bigger role for Dixon than he deserves, based on that “heart” and “character” that you refer to, all while he’s doing the exact same things Young is doing.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
You conspicuously omitted one of your favorite statistics
So I looked it up.
Roger Mason’s 2007/2008 PER: 13.8
Juan Dixon’s 2004/2005 PER: 15.2
Both years were the best years in terms of PER for both players, although Juan’s lowest PER, 10.8 in in 07/08, is still higher than Roger’s second highest, 9.7 in 03/04. Similarly, Juan’s career PER of 13.2 is higher than Roger’s career of 11.5.
It’s somewhat of a silly comparison, though, since Juan wasn’t signed at the expense of signing Roger. Roger is making way more than we can afford to pay him on another team, and Juan got signed to a partially-guaranteed contract for (hopefully) peanuts. I understand the minutes Roger got last year could go partially to Juan, and given the options available on this team and on the market, there’s not much else better to do.
I do agree, by the way, that giving minutes to Juan shouldn’t get in the way of developing NY.
I did leave it out
Partially on purpose, because one of the criticisms of PER is that it too often rewards inefficient high-usage players like Dixon.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
But yeah, I should have put it in there
That was dishonest.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
Dixon hardly changes things much...
…as the 5th guard although I do like the idea that Nick Young feels a little pressure for minutes from a crowd favorite. Day 1 of camp, NY should know that a serious pro is pushing him for playing time. Still, Juan’s a half step down from R. Mason. I worry a little about the scoring punch of the second unit.
Good Insurance
Dixon is a good insurance player for the team. He can be the third string point and third string two guard, if Dee Brown or Young/McGuire falter, then Dixon can step in and provide the bench with some quality as their replacement.
Dixon Vs. Young
Young is the future (we hope)….Dixon is part of the help (now).
I think Eddie will certainly give Nick Young plenty of chances first and foremost…..but I’m not going to fault him for playing Dixon as an alternate look should Young fail to consistently impress.
Representing DC with Wizards & Stuff - Truth About It Dot Net
Mason is overrated
Dixon is a more complete scorer than Mason. Every season Juan has played at least 1,000 minutes he has attempted at least 97 free throws. That’s essentially one attempt per 10 minutes played – a good average for a substitute scorer.
Mason last year played over 1700 minutes and attempted only 71 free throws. What this tells me is that when Roger’s jumper is off he cannot supplement his scoring with free throws. Dixon is more aggressive off the dribble and thus gets more calls because of it.
Prior to last season Mason’s high game was 18 points whie Dixon scored 35 points in a playoff game vs the Bulls in 2005. If you go by per minute career averages, Dixon has more rebounds, steals and assists than Mason. Juan does more things well than Roger while Mason shoots a higher percentage from the floor.
Final analysis: without Arenas for the first few months Dixon can provide more hybrid playmaking of the 2 guard spots. He can defend most role playing point guards and tire out bigger bench 2s on offense with his constant motion. Mason will look great in San Antonio since they play inside out and he will see way more open shots but for the WIzards right now, Dixon is the better fit.
You're missing the most important part of this puzzle
That’s usage rate. Of course Dixon shoots more free throws; he ends more possessions. He shoots more shots. More shots=more chances to put up better counting stats.
That’s fine if we’re talking about a primary scorer, but not if it’s the 11th man. I don’t want Dixon to shoot a lot because he has constantly proved he isn’t an efficient scorer. Mason may not drive to the hoop as well as Young, but he knew his role, shoots less, spots up behind the line better and rarely turned it over. That’s a better fit for a bench player.
We already have a “shoot a lot to score a lot player.” His name is Nick Young and he’s younger than Juan.
You know you'll get devoured by Cheaney, Wallace, and Juwan Howard.
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